Executive Summary
BRIEFRead first. Decision-maker brief. One paragraph of thesis, one table mapping every Palmer principle to a design answer, one clean WILDFIRE spec sheet, a compact BACKFIRE block, an honest design-maturity note, and the reason this isn't the Batmobile.
Parent baseline: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3/§4 (LOCKED Rev B.1 point design — MTOW 175 kg / 385 lb). Authority for all numbers: 03_system_specification.md (Integration). Honest risk view: 40_risk_register_open_questions.md.
Status: Concept design / engineering study. Every number below is a design target/estimate, not validated test data. Unverified items carry [TBR]. The mass budget now closes at 175 kg (Rev B.1 signed growth); range, reuse life, and recovery are designed-in but not yet test-verified.
1. Thesis (one paragraph)
WILDFIRE is the reusable drone Palmer Luckey described — engineered, and built around a brain that already flies. It is a Group-3, steel-intensive, weld-and-rivet fixed-wing combat UAS produced in an automotive/agricultural bill-of-process (DDR-05/06/07), wrapped around the AIGP-heritage vision-only autonomy brain that already executes ingress, target acquisition, and terminal homing in simulation with no GPS and no RF datalink on the critical path (DDR-01/02/04), now re-hosted on best-in-class Thor-class compute (DDR-03). It carries a useful payload the whole way and is hardened to survive laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously (DDR-09/10/11/12/13/16) — and then it comes home. The airframe, the EO/IR seeker, and the compute are recovered every sortie to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition is expended (DDR-15). Palmer's words are the requirement: "they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe" [00:20:27]. Throwing the airframe away every shot is, in his framing, "a total folly" [00:19:38] — and no one-way airframe exists anywhere in this family. The economic consequence is the whole point: once the expensive ~95% of the vehicle comes home, cost-per-engagement collapses to fuel plus the optional munition — roughly a 40× recurring-cost reduction versus an expendable airframe. BACKFIRE (AGP-2) is the interceptor instantiation of the identical doctrine — "reusable kinetics, it's absolutely critical. Nobody is taking it seriously enough" [00:20:46].
2. How each Palmer principle is met
Reusability (DDR-15) is the top row by design — it is the program's #1 differentiator, not one feature among many.
| DDR — Palmer principle (short quote, timestamp) | One-line design answer |
|---|---|
| ★ DDR-15 — REUSABILITY (PRIMARY, FAMILY-WIDE KPP): "they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe" [00:20:27] | Airframe + seeker + compute recovered every sortie via rail/RATO launch + Skyhook-cable recovery (parachute/airbag alternate); reuse life ≥50 sorties [TBR], turnaround ≤30 min, small team; only the munition is expended → cost-per-sortie ≈ $3,210 vs ~$130k for the "total folly" of throwing the airframe away. |
| DDR-01 — "on-board autonomy do basically everything" [00:14:36] | Full mission (ingress → effect → egress → recovery) executes with radios OFF; RF is opportunistic, never required. |
| DDR-02 — "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… You look out the window" [00:16:01] | Vision-only nav + terminal optical homing: 3–6 global-shutter cameras + EO/IR gimbal, scene/map-match, no GPS dependence. |
| DDR-03 — "a $300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price" [00:14:53] | Best-in-class Thor-class SoM (~$1.5–2.8k, <2% of flyaway); compute cost is a rounding error against the airframe and falls with Moore's law. |
| DDR-04 — "completely resistant to all jamming systems… also things like navigation" [00:15:54] | No RF-dependent nav, no single RF point of failure; jamming/spoofing has nothing to bite on. |
| DDR-05/06 — "build it in a Ford or GM… John Deere… in 1 week" [00:21:55] | Auto/ag bill-of-process, <120 structural parts, ≤1-week line-train, ≥1,000/day distributed surge. |
| DDR-07 — "rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing" [00:10:01] | Stamped/press-braked galvanized steel + glass/basalt composite, rivets + robotic MIG welds + structural adhesive; weight traded for producibility and reuse robustness — the signed 175 kg MTOW buys that penalty rather than mass-optimizing it away. |
| DDR-08 — "build a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade" [00:11:32] | Rate KPP ≥1,000/day across 10+ distributed lines; reuse multiplies effective fielded capacity per unit built. |
| DDR-09 — "$10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser" [00:18:09] | Low-cost ablative/reflective skin + thermal mass + optional terminal spin; field-replaceable panels so a survived sortie is re-flyable. |
| DDR-10 — "fry normal drones with high-powered microwaves" [00:18:19] | Faraday-enclosed avionics + optical (POF) internal data bus + transient/EMP protection; ≥80 dB shielding effectiveness target [TBR]. |
| DDR-11 — "solid rocket boosters that shove you out of the way at the last second" [00:18:41] | Terminal lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor for a reuse-safe 12 g jink to generate miss-distance; charged once to survivability (F-2 fixed). |
| DDR-12 — "almost impossible to build something that can stop all three… flies long ranges, carries a useful payload" [00:18:46] | Orthogonal laser + HPM + kinetic layers integrated while holding payload and surviving to RTB. REQ-12b/c closes at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — see §4. |
| DDR-13 — "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way" [00:19:06] | Range and payload co-equal KPPs to the terminal phase, plus a fixed, protected RTB reserve so the asset always returns. |
| DDR-14 — "every sensor needs to be a sensor for every effector… no stovepipe" [00:17:02] | Open Common Track Format mesh; any sensor cues any effector; WILDFIRE and BACKFIRE are interoperable nodes. |
| DDR-16 — "I'm going to take payload away. Their bombs are going to have to get smaller. Their range is going to have to go down" [00:19:16] | WILDFIRE's survivability is the trap: it forces the enemy's C-UAS designer into smaller bombs / shorter range. |
| DDR-17 — "not building the cool thing… makes no sense because there's no customer" [00:36:54] | "Don't build the Batmobile": every feature traces to a DDR + mission; no gold-plating; performance traded for fielding. |
| DDR-18 — "more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI" [00:33:01] | Independent, deterministic safety kernel: geofence/ROE gate, human-on-the-loop for lethal release, abort/wave-off, default-to-recover. |
| DDR-19 — "compete… at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win" [00:21:40] | Designed to an instrumented live shoot-off including a recover → turnaround → re-fly reuse demonstration. |
| DDR-20 — "as a consolation prize our close allies… Japanese automotive workers" [00:23:22] | Supply chain portable to allied/distributed production; second-source the engine + energetics (the two non-commodity items). |
3. WILDFIRE (AGP-1) — One-Page Spec Sheet
Reconciled to the locked Rev B.1 175 kg MTOW baseline. Authority: 03_system_specification.md.
| Parameter | Value (Rev B.1 reconciled) | DDR / status |
|---|---|---|
| Class / role | Group-3 fixed-wing, recoverable & reusable autonomous strike / multirole (strike / ISR / EW / decoy / cargo) | 13,15,17 |
| Configuration | Mid-wing, V-tail, pusher prop, no landing gear; rail/RATO launch + Skyhook-cable recovery (parachute+airbag alternate) | 06,07,15 |
| MTOW | 175 kg (385 lb) — signed growth from 150 kg | MET — mass budget closes (F-1 resolved) |
| Full-up contested strike (divert + full payload) | 174.5 kg → closes within 175 kg with ~0.5 kg positive margin | 13,15 |
| Empty-equipped | ~104.5 kg (structure 52 · propulsion dry 26 · electrical 7.2 · autonomy 3.4 · survivability incl. divert 9.3 · comms 0.9 · CPI 3.2 · recovery 6.5) | 13 |
| Fuel (heavy fuel JP-8 / Jet-A) | 45 kg incl. ~4 kg fixed RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency (protected first) | 13,15 |
| Payload (modular; only expended item is the munition) | up to 25 kg — full ceiling restored by the 175 kg re-baseline | 13,15,16 |
| Propulsion | Heavy-fuel 2-stroke EFI piston, ~35 hp (32–38 hp band), pusher; turboprop dash kit option (dash-only) | 11,13,15 |
| Speed | Cruise 100–130 kt / loiter ~70 kt / turbine-kit dash higher | [TBR] |
| Range / endurance (recoverable, incl. RTB) | 1,500–2,500 km radius nominal / 12–20 h loiter (headline envelope). Honest full-payload case ≈ 1,204 km; combined-adverse worst case K5 ≈ 1,150 km | 13,15 / Open-managed, §4 (K5) |
| Service ceiling | ~6,000 m | [TBR] |
| Compute | Thor-class COTS SoM, ~1000–2000 TOPS, Faraday-shielded; heritage Orin = proof + 2nd-source | 03 |
| Nav sensors | 3–6 wide-FOV global-shutter cams + EO/IR gimbal; dual voted MEMS IMU; baro; optical flow; low-SWaP star tracker — no GPS dependence | 02,04 |
| Comms | Open-standard SDR mesh (+optional SATCOM); mission- AND recovery-complete radios-OFF | 01,04,14 |
| Survivability | Anti-laser ablative/reflective skin (+optional spin); Faraday avionics + optical bus; terminal 12 g divert "dodge"; field-replaceable hardening → re-flyable | 09,10,11,12,15 |
| Electrical | 242 W cruise / 621 W peak ship load; 1.0–1.2 kW generator (≈1.6–1.9× margin); ~350 Wh buffer | 03 |
| Unit flyaway (volume, munition-less) | ≈ $130,000 (under the ≤$150k target by ~$20k); ~$100–110k at 1M units | 03,05 |
| Reuse life | ≥50 sorties (structure inspect-only; engine TBO ≥250 h) [TBR — honest engine-hour math gives ~25–40, R-04] | 15 (gating KPP K12) |
| Turnaround (refuel+rearm) | ≤30 min, small pit-crew (objective ≤15 min) [TBR — paper timeline] | 15 (gating KPP K12) |
| Cost per sortie | ≈ $3,210 airframe-amortized @ 50 sorties (→ ~$1,650 @ 100) + fuel + munition | 15 (economic core) |
| Production rate | ≥1,000/day distributed surge (10 lines × 100/day) | 08 |
| Structural part count / line-train | <120 parts / ≤5-day curriculum | 06,07 |
4. Design Maturity — honest note for the decision-maker
This is a concept study, not a frozen design. Rev B.1 changed exactly one thing and changed it honestly:
- Mass now closes (F-1 / R-01 RESOLVED). Rev B integration found the subsystems sum to ~104.5 kg empty-equipped — far above the original ~80 kg aspiration — which made a 150 kg MTOW infeasible (≈0 kg payload). Per the integration's own recommendation, MTOW was re-baselined 150 → 175 kg as signed growth. At 175 kg the canonical rollup is 104.5 (empty) + 45 (fuel) + 25 (full payload) = 174.5 kg ≤ 175 kg, closing with ~0.5 kg positive margin, with the full 25 kg payload and terminal divert motor both restored. Propulsion uprates to ~35 hp to fly it. Bookkeeping fixes applied: divert motor charged once to survivability (F-2); the ~3.2 kg phantom removed from propulsion dry (F-3); BOM masses aligned to owner docs — structure 52 kg, engine ~17 kg dry (F-4).
- DDR-12 REQ-12b/c ("survive laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously while holding range + payload + RTB within MTOW") closes at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin; verification is by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — it is not yet test-verified.
Three risks remain MANAGED but NOT-YET-VERIFIED — they are the items that gate design freeze, and none is claimed solved:
| Risk | What is open | Honest posture |
|---|---|---|
| R-03 — Skyhook recovery scaling | Heritage Skyhook recovers ~22 kg; WILDFIRE captures at ~105 kg (≈5× mass, ≈25× energy). Recovery method is not down-selected (parachute/airbag is the alternate). | Treat Skyhook as unproven, not baseline, in all cost/turnaround/reuse claims until demonstrated by captive rig + live captures. |
| R-04 — ≥50-sortie life | Structure is inspect-only at the endurance limit, but the engine-hour math gives ~25–40 sorties before TBO. Reuse-life vs cost-per-sortie are circular until the binding limiter is fixed. | Present cost-per-sortie as a band at the honest engine-limited life, not only the structural 50; determine whether engine TBO or structure fatigue binds. |
| K5 — combined-adverse range | The heavier 175 kg MTOW costs range: full-payload radius ≈ 1,204 km nominal; combined-adverse worst case ≈ 1,150 km vs the 1,500 km floor. | Carried as a managed performance risk. Critically — the RTB reserve is a fixed hold-back, so every adverse swing eats mission radius, NOT the reserve; the airframe always comes home (DDR-15). Loiter ≥12 h and RTB reserve are met on baseline assumptions. |
Bottom line: the mass KPP is now closed at 175 kg; range/reuse/recovery are designed-in, bounded, and analysis- or test-pending. No claim of validated test data is made anywhere in this package.
5. BACKFIRE (AGP-2) — Compact Spec
Separate reusable interceptor airframe, ~70% common with WILDFIRE; contributes 0 kg / 0 W / $0 to the WILDFIRE rollup. Own figures from 20_variant_backfire_interceptor.md / doc 03 §9; BACKFIRE mass rollup remains [TBR by Integration].
| Parameter | Value | DDR |
|---|---|---|
| Role | Recoverable, reusable C-UAS / C-cruise-missile interceptor | 15 |
| Configuration | Twin ~55-lbf-class micro-turbojet (engine-out reuse safety); canard+tail; rail-launch + parachute/airbag recovery | 15 |
| MTOW | ~55 kg (prox-frag, full fuel) / ~44 kg recovered (HTK) | 15 |
| Speed / envelope | M0.85 cruise-dash (rocket-boost to low-supersonic option); ~15–20 km range, to ~6 km alt | 15 |
| Kill | Selectable: hit-to-kill kinetic (no warhead, fully reusable) or proximity-frag (replaceable) | 15 |
| Reuse | Airframe + twin turbines + seeker + Thor-class compute recovered; ≥50 sorties [TBR]; turnaround ≤30 min | 15 |
| Unit flyaway (volume) | ≈ $38k (turbines ~$16k dominate) | 16 |
| Cost per engagement | ≈ $0.8k (HTK) / ≈ $4.3k (prox-frag) — both ≪ $20k target | 15 |
| Commonality | ~70% common w/ WILDFIRE (autonomy core, open mesh, doctrine) | 14,15 |
BACKFIRE is the purest DDR-15 expression: in HTK mode, after a kill it lands, is refueled, has its chute repacked, and re-flies — only fuel (~$8) + a chute pyro cartridge consumed; zero rearm step, no magazine, no "semi truck full of missiles" [00:20:37].
6. Why this isn't the Batmobile — and why reusability wins
This design refuses gold-plating: it is a deliberately crappy, heavy, steel, weld-and-rivet WWII-style airplane built in a car factory (DDR-06/07), not an exquisite titanium-and-autoclave exhibit. The 175 kg MTOW is itself the anti-Batmobile decision — rather than spend exotic mass-optimization to chase a 150 kg number, the program signed for the gross weight a producible, durable steel airframe actually needs, and closed the budget with the full payload inside it. Every feature traces to a DDR and a named mission; performance is traded down to protect producibility, reuse, cost, and survivability (DDR-17). The expensive part — the brain — is COTS and getting cheaper (DDR-03), so it is a rounding error, not the product.
And the reusability case is not a slogan; it is arithmetic. Throw the airframe away and every engagement costs ~$130k + fuel + munition — Palmer's "total folly" [00:19:38]. Bring the airframe, seeker, and compute home and the same effect costs ≈ $3,210 + fuel + munition — roughly 40× cheaper, repeated 50+ times per vehicle built. That asymmetry — not peak speed, not exotic materials — is what lets a defender out-mass a mass-produced threat. Reusability is the lever Palmer says "nobody is taking… seriously enough" [00:20:48]; WILDFIRE takes it seriously and makes it the #1 differentiator. The honest caveat (§4) is that the recovery chain — Skyhook scaling (R-03), ≥50-sortie life (R-04), and combined-adverse range (K5) — is designed in but not yet proven. The mass budget closes today; those three items are what stand between this concept study and a frozen design.
Budget contribution
This is the executive-summary / spec document. It reports the reconciled family headline figures from
03_system_specification.md; it adds no physical subsystem of its own. Owned mass/power/cost here = 0.
- Mass: 0 kg added by this document.
- Reported WILDFIRE rollup (Rev B.1, canonical): MTOW 175 kg; empty-equipped ~104.5 kg (structure 52.0 · propulsion dry 26.0 · electrical 7.2 · autonomy/compute 3.4 · survivability incl. divert 9.3 · comms 0.9 · CPI 3.2 · recovery 6.5); + fuel 45.0 (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency); + payload up to 25.0. Full-up contested strike = 174.5 kg → closes within 175 kg with ~0.5 kg positive margin (F-1 resolved by signed growth). Divert motor counted once in survivability (F-2/F-3); BOM masses aligned to owner docs (F-4).
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W added by this document.
- Reported ship budget: 242 W cruise / 621 W peak; generator 1.0–1.2 kW (≈1.6–1.9× peak margin); ~350 Wh buffer.
- Unit cost (volume): $0 added by this document.
- Reported WILDFIRE flyaway (munition-less): ≈ $130,000 (under ≤$150k by ~$20k); ~$100–110k @ 1M units. BACKFIRE ≈ $38k.
- Cost-per-sortie (DDR-15 economic core): ≈ $3,210 airframe-amortized @ 50 sorties (+ fuel + munition); ~$1,650 @ 100.
- Reuse impact:
- This document is the decision-maker's reuse-case statement: it books cost-per-sortie (≈ $3,210), not flyaway alone, as the decisive figure — a ~40× recurring-cost reduction vs the expendable-airframe "total folly," and the program's #1 differentiator (DDR-15).
- It carries zero mass/power/cost penalty of its own and asserts the family-wide no-one-way-airframe rule.
- It flags, for the decision-maker, that three of the four reuse pillars — recover at scale (R-03), life ≥50 (R-04), and combined-adverse range (K5) — currently rest on managed, not-yet-verified [TBR]s; the mass pillar now closes at 175 kg.
- Assumptions / [TBR]:
- Mass budget CLOSES at the signed 175 kg MTOW with ~0.5 kg positive margin; F-1/R-01 resolved. This is the one closure claimed.
- Reuse life ≥50 sorties [TBR] (engine-hour math gives ~25–40, R-04); turnaround ≤30 min [TBR] (paper timeline); Skyhook recovery scaled ~5× beyond heritage and not down-selected (R-03); combined-adverse range K5 ≈ 1,150 km vs 1,500 km floor — all MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED.
- DDR-12 REQ-12b/c closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — not "verified."
- Range 1,500–2,500 km / 12–20 h is the headline envelope; full-payload nominal ≈ 1,204 km. Cost, electrical (242/621 W), and reuse figures are design targets/estimates — no KPP is backed by validated test data.
- All figures inherit from
03_system_specification.md; this summary introduces no new analysis.
Master System Specification
SPECDocument owner: Integration / Chief Engineer
Platform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 (hero, recoverable & reusable) + BACKFIRE AGP-2 (reusable interceptor, variant block)
Parent baseline: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3 / §4 (LOCKED Rev B.1 point design — MTOW 175 kg / 385 lb)
Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets, estimates, or reconciled rollups — not validated test results. Unverified items carry [TBR] (to-be-resolved by analysis/test) or [TBD]. This is a concept study, not a frozen design.
REV B.1 CLOSURE FRAMING (authoritative — overrides every earlier 150 kg figure in this and any sibling document)
- MTOW re-baselined 150 → 175 kg (385 lb) as SIGNED GROWTH, per the integration's own Rev B recommendation. This RESOLVES finding F-1 / risk R-01 (mass overrun). The reconciled full-up strike config = ~174.5 kg, which CLOSES within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin (~0.5 kg) and carries the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor restored.
- REUSABILITY IS A PRIMARY, FAMILY-WIDE KPP (DDR-15). WILDFIRE is recoverable and reusable: the airframe + seeker + compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, reused; only the munition (if any) is expended. A one-way airframe is, verbatim, "a total folly" [19:38] — designed out of this spec. Reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR]; turnaround (refuel + rearm) ≤ 30 min.
- UNCONSTRAINED BY AIGP COMPETITION SPECS. The AIGP autonomy stack is heritage/proof that the vision-nav brain works; it is not a hardware ceiling. WILDFIRE flies best-in-class Thor-class compute (~1000–2000 TOPS), sensors, propulsion, and materials, consistent with the manufacturing doctrine (DDR-05/06/07).
- HONESTY DISCIPLINE. Mass-closure is resolved; performance and reuse closure are not test-verified. R-03 (Skyhook recovery scaled ~5× beyond heritage; recovery method not down-selected), R-04 (≥50-sortie engine/structural life vs engine-hour math), and K5 (combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor; RTB reserve protected regardless) remain MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED risks. DDR-12 REQ-12b/c closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — not "verified."
Role of this document. Single integration artifact for the AGP family. It (a) presents the clean WILDFIRE spec sheet + a compact BACKFIRE block with reusability KPPs, (b) reconciles the mass / electrical-power / unit-cost / cost-per-sortie budgets reported by the subsystem docs against the locked Rev B.1 envelope and shows the mass budget closing with positive margin, (c) gives the system block diagram, interface list, and KPP table with honest status (Met / Closes-pending-analysis / Open-managed), and (d) closes with a Rev B.1 closure & findings disposition section recording F-1 resolved, F-2/F-3/F-4 fixed, and R-03/R-04/K5 carried as managed risks. Where a subsystem number is overridden, the override and rationale are recorded so the change is auditable (DDR-18 discipline applied to the engineering process itself).
Governing rule — "Don't build the Batmobile" [36:54] (DDR-17). Every requirement traces to a Design Driver (DDR-01…DDR-20). Producibility, reusability, cost, and survivability beat peak performance, and no one-way airframe option exists anywhere in the family (DDR-15).
1. System Description (WILDFIRE AGP-1)
WILDFIRE is a Group-3, fixed-wing, recoverable & reusable, autonomous strike / multirole UAS built around the AIGP heritage vision-autonomy core re-hosted on best-in-class Thor-class compute. It is a steel-intensive, weld-and-rivet "World-War-II airplane" (DDR-06/07) wrapped around the COTS edge-AI brain, flying the complete mission — ingress, effect, egress, and recovery — with zero dependence on any RF datalink or GPS (DDR-01/02/04). Its purpose is to impose Palmer Luckey's "almost impossible" multi-threat design burden on the enemy's counter-UAS designer — surviving laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously while carrying a useful payload the whole way (DDR-09/10/11/12/13/16) — and then to come home and do it again (DDR-15). The only expended item is the (optional) munition; the airframe, EO/IR seeker, and Thor-class compute are recovered and reused over a ≥ 50-sortie [TBR] life at ≤ 30 min turnaround.
The Rev B.1 signed MTOW growth to 175 kg is the system-level acceptance of the steel-DFM weight penalty: rather than mass-optimize the structure away from its producible/durable point, the program bought the extra gross weight (and the propulsion uprate to ~35 hp that flies it) and closed the mass budget with the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor inside the envelope, with positive margin. The honest cost of that growth is range — the full-payload strike radius now sits near/below the 1,500 km floor (K5) — and that is carried as a managed performance risk, not claimed closed.
| Attribute | Value | DDR |
|---|---|---|
| Class / role | Group-3 fixed-wing, recoverable & reusable autonomous strike / multirole | 13,15,17 |
| Configuration | Mid-wing, V-tail, pusher prop, no landing gear; rail/RATO launch; Skyhook-cable recovery (parachute+airbag alternate; VTOL a rejected trade) | 06,07,15,17 |
| Reusability | Airframe + seeker + compute recovered every sortie; reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR]; turnaround (refuel+rearm) ≤ 30 min, small team; only the munition is expended | 15 (primary KPP) |
| Autonomy | Fully onboard vision→pose→guidance→control; GPS/RF-optional; autonomous precision recovery; bounded/auditable safety kernel | 01,02,04,15,18 |
| Survivability | Anti-laser ablative/reflective skin (+optional terminal spin); Faraday avionics + optical data bus; terminal lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor (counted once here); field-replaceable hardening so a survived engagement is re-flyable | 09,10,11,12,15 |
| Networking | Open Common Track Format; sensor=effector; mission- AND recovery-complete radios-OFF | 01,04,14 |
| Producibility | Automotive/ag bill-of-process; <120 structural parts; ≤1-week line-train; ≥1,000/day surge | 05,06,07,08,20 |
2. WILDFIRE Master Spec Sheet (reconciled to Rev B.1 175 kg baseline)
| Parameter | Baseline (locked §3.1, Rev B.1) | Reconciled / as-designed | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTOW | 175 kg (385 lb) | 174.5 kg full-up strike → closes within 175 kg with ~0.5 kg positive margin (§5) | MET — mass budget closes (F-1 resolved by signed growth) |
| Empty (equipped) | ~104.5 kg | 104.5 kg reconciled (structure 52 + equipment 52.5) | Reconciled |
| Structure (empty, subset) | ~52 kg | 52 kg owner value (doc 10; F-4) | Reconciled |
| Fuel (heavy fuel JP-8/Jet-A, incl. RTB reserve) | ~45 kg | 45 kg (incl. ~4 kg fixed RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency) | OK (counted once, F-9) |
| Payload (modular; only expended item is munition) | up to 25 kg | full 25 kg restored by the MTOW re-baseline; ISR/EW loads ~9–13 kg | MET (full payload within envelope) |
| Propulsion (baseline) | HF 2-stroke EFI piston ~35 hp (32–38 hp band), pusher | ~35 hp rated; cruise ~10.1 kW (~39% power), η_th≈0.22, BSFC 380 g/kWh; engine ~17 kg dry (F-4) | Within band [TBR] |
| Propulsion (dash option) | Turboprop/turbojet dash kit | ~35–50 hp shaft / 45–70 lbf; module swap; +$25–60k → near/over flyaway cap | Option [TBR], dash-only |
| Cruise / loiter / dash speed | 100–130 kt / 70 kt loiter / dash higher | 120 kt cruise / 70 kt loiter (piston); 160+ kt (turbine kit) | [TBR] |
| Range / endurance (recoverable, incl. RTB) | ~1,500–2,500 km radius / 12–20 h | ~1,204 km radius nominal full-payload (Case A); ~12 h loiter @ 600 km (Case B) | Open-managed — full-payload radius below 1,500 km floor; K5 ~1,150 km worst case (§5.4) |
| Service ceiling | ~6,000 m | ~6,000 m | [TBR] |
| Compute | Best-in-class Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS, Faraday-shielded | Thor-class SoM (~$1.5–3k); TOPS-agnostic toolchain; heritage Orin = proof + 2nd-source | OK |
| Nav sensors | 3–6 wide-FOV global-shutter cams + 1 EO/IR gimbal; dual MEMS IMU (voted); baro; optical flow; low-SWaP star tracker | per doc 12/30; no GPS dependence | OK |
| Comms | Open-standard SDR mesh, optional SATCOM | EMCON-0…3 ladder; mission- AND recovery-complete radios-OFF; radio-less build valid | OK |
| Electrical budget | (set by integration) | 242 W cruise / 621 W peak ship load; 1.0–1.2 kW engine-driven generator + ~350 Wh buffer | Reconciled, §6 |
| Unit flyaway cost (volume) | ≤ $150k | ≈ $130k (top-down, doc 16); ~$59.3k material floor (doc 30) corroborates margin | Under target by ~$20k, §7 |
| Cost per sortie | airframe amortized over ≥50 sorties → ≤ ~$3.1k + fuel + munition | ≈ $3,210 airframe-amortized @ 50 sorties (→ ~$1,650 @ 100) + munition | On target, §7.4 |
| Reuse life | ≥ 50 sorties | ≥ 50 target (structure endurance-limit/inspect-only; engine TBO ≥250 h) [TBR — engine-hour math gives ~25–40, R-04] | Open-managed KPP K12, §8 |
| Turnaround (refuel+rearm) | ≤ 30 min, small team | ≤ 30 min parallelized pit-crew (obj ≤ 15 min) [TBR] | Open-managed KPP K12, §8 |
| Production rate | ≥ 1,000/day surge, distributed | 10 lines × 100/day | OK [TBR] |
| Structural part count | < 120 | ~112–116 | Within gate [TBR] |
| Line-training time | ≤ 1 week | 5-day curriculum | OK [TBR] |
3. System Block Diagram (ASCII)
WILDFIRE AGP-1 — SYSTEM BLOCK DIAGRAM (Rev B.1, 175 kg, REUSABLE)
┌───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ AIRFRAME (doc 10): galvanized-steel semi-monocoque, V-tail, pusher, NO GEAR ── DDR-05/06/07 │
│ Skin = anti-laser thermal mass + Faraday shell ── DDR-09/10 │ RECOVERY LOAD PATHS ── DDR-15 │
│ Skyhook wingtip capture fitting → main spar (52 kg structure, F-4) │ chute riser + airbag belly │
└───────┬────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┬─────────────┘
│ │
┌─────▼──────────────────── FARADAY AVIONICS BAY (doc 13 EMI) ───────────────────▼──────────┐
│ houses the REUSED seeker + Thor-class compute (come home every sortie, DDR-15) │
│ ┌─────────────────────── AUTONOMY CORE (doc 12, Thor-class ~1000–2000 TOPS) ───────────┐ │
│ │ CAMERAS(3-6)+EO/IR ─► PERCEPTION (YOLO/U-Net/PnP) ─► STATE EST (VIO + IMU×2 voted, │ │
│ │ + recovery-field cam │ baro, opt-flow, star-tracker; map/scene fix, GPS/RF-free) │ │
│ │ │ ─► GUIDANCE (MPC) ─► CONTROL (ONNX/PID) ─► FCU (MAVLink) │ │
│ │ ┌──────────── SAFETY KERNEL (independent, deterministic) ────────────────────────┐ │ │
│ │ │ geofence • ROE gate • human-on-loop release • abort • recovery go/no-go │ │ DDR-18
│ │ │ • deterministic recovery WAVE-OFF (protects the reusable airframe) ── DDR-15 │ │ │
│ │ └──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ │
│ └──────────────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │
│ internal OPTICAL DATA BUS (POF, HPM-hard; no copper to fatigue over 50 sorties) ── DDR-10 │
│ │ │ │ │ │ │
│ ┌───▼────┐ ┌──────▼──────┐ ┌────▼──────┐ ┌────▼──────┐ ┌────▼────────┐ │
│ │ COMMS │ │ PAYLOAD CPI │ │SURVIVABLTY│ │ RECOVERY/ │ │ ELECTRICAL │ │
│ │ SDR │ │ bay (doc14) │ │ (doc 13) │ │ REUSE │ │ POWER(doc11)│ │
│ │ mesh │ │ release path│ │anti-laser │ │ (doc 18) │ │ 28V DC bus │ │
│ │(doc15) │ │ ONLY munition│ │coat;divert│ │ Skyhook │ │ gen 1.0-1.2kW│ │
│ │opportun│ │ expended │ │"dodge"mtr │ │ HUMS;chute│ │ +~350Wh batt│ │
│ │ 0.9 kg │ │ 3.2 kg │ │ 9.3 kg(F-2)│ │ 6.5 kg │ │ 7.2 kg │ │
│ └───┬────┘ └──────┬──────┘ └────┬──────┘ └────┬──────┘ └─────┬───────┘ │
│ │DDR-01/14 │DDR-13/15 │DDR-11/15 │DDR-15 │ engine-driven │
└──────┼───────────────┼──────────────┼───────────────┼──────────────┼───────────────────────────┘
│(RF aperture= │(release = │(terminal jink, │(vision-cued │
│ one Faraday │ airframe lives │ reuse-safe 12g)│ capture, no RF)│
│ hole; off under│ to RTB) │ divert ONCE-F-2│ │
▼ HPM) ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
OPEN MESH / MISSION EFFECT MISS-DISTANCE RECOVER → REFUEL HF 2-STROKE PISTON
OFF-BOARD C2 munition RELEASED vs interceptor → REARM → RE-FLY PUSHER ~35 hp (doc 11)
(opportunistic) (ISR/EW/decoy/ (airframe ≥50 sorties [TBR] JP-8 26 kg dry (F-3)
cargo RECOVERED) survives → RTB) ≤30 min turn + 45 kg fuel + RTB reserve
4. Interface List (system-level ICDs)
| IF# | A side | B side | Type | Key parameters | Owner docs | DDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF-1 | Engine accessory drive | 28 V DC main bus | Electrical (power source) | Gen 1.0–1.2 kW cont; rectifier/regulator | 11 | 03 |
| IF-2 | 28 V DC bus | All LRUs | Electrical (distribution) | 28 V (24 V opt); PoL converters; 2-fault feed to FCC/servos | 11,12 | 18 |
| IF-3 | Cameras/EO-IR | Compute | Optical data (POF, in-shield) | global-shutter; ≥30 Hz; HPM-hard; incl. aft/down recovery field | 12,13 | 02,10,15 |
| IF-4 | Compute/FCC | Servos / actuators | MAVLink → actuation | SET_ATTITUDE_TARGET; 100–250 Hz inner loop | 12 | 18 |
| IF-5 | Payload CPI bulkhead | Payload module (A/B/C/D) | Mech + 28 V + optical data + EMI + release | 4-pt shear + quarter-turn cam latch (≥50 swap cycles); Class C = 450 W/18 A peak; optical-only data; munition ejection/clean-separation path | 14,11,13 | 10,13,14,15 |
| IF-6 | Survivability divert motor | Keel-beam hardpoint + autonomy cue | Structural + fire command | ~3,250 N·s impulse; 12 g reuse-safe lateral @ ~130 kg terminal; reloadable; deterministic trigger; mass charged ONCE to survivability (F-2) | 13,11,12,10 | 11,15,18 |
| IF-7 | SDR mesh | Faraday wall feed-through | RF aperture (one intentional hole) | limiter + TVS; shortable under HPM; LPI/LPD; recovery-complete with this OFF | 15,13 | 04,10,15 |
| IF-8 | Open-Net middleware | Onboard + off-board effectors/sensors | Common Track Format (CBOR) | track_quality, update_rate, frame (SCENE/WGS-84), roe_flags, RECOVERY_INTENT (optional) | 15,14,12 | 14,15,18 |
| IF-9 | Airframe Faraday bay structure | EMI treatment (gasket/WBC/optical bus) | Structural ↔ survivability boundary | continuous conductive shell; bonded module straps; quick-access lid for ≤30-min turnaround health check | 10,13 | 10,15 |
| IF-10 | Rail/RATO launcher + Skyhook recovery boom | Airframe lugs / wingtip capture fitting / chute riser | Mechanical (launch + recovery) | launch ~7 g @ 9 m stroke [TBR]; Skyhook arrest [TBR] — scaled ~5× beyond heritage, R-03; chute ~3–4 g; airbag ~6 g; seeker+compute shock within allowable | 10,18,30 | 05,06,15 |
| IF-11 | Open mesh | BACKFIRE shooter node | Sensor-to-shooter (CTF) | cue ingest from ANY sensor; publish EFFECT_REPORT | 15,20 | 14,15 |
| IF-12 | HUMS (witness gauge / cycle counter) | Autonomy immutable log → turnaround go/no-go | Data (reuse qualification) | g-history, capture-event log, engine-hours, battery cycles → ≤30-min go/no-go + ≥50-sortie life accounting [TBR — R-04] | 18,12,10,11 | 15,18,19 |
5. RECONCILED MASS BUDGET (vs locked MTOW 175 kg) — CLOSES with positive margin
Method. Each physical item is counted once, at its best-supported owner value. The Rev B.1 fixes are applied: the divert/"dodge" motor is charged once to survivability (F-2) and the ~3.2 kg phantom is removed from propulsion dry (F-3); the propulsion-dry headline is the explicit ~26 kg itemization (F-3); BOM masses are aligned to owner docs — structure 52 kg, engine ~17 kg dry, not the old 40/7 split (F-4). Fuel is counted once (F-9). The locked 175 kg MTOW is the design envelope, and the reconciled full-up strike sum is shown closing inside it.
5.1 Canonical reconciled breakdown
| Line item | Mass (kg) | Source | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structure (empty, reuse-robust incl. recovery load paths) | 52.0 | doc 10 | owner value (F-4); steel semi-monocoque, fatigue-sized for ≥50 captures [TBR] |
| Propulsion dry (engine 17 + prop 2.4 + fuel-sys 3.2 — itemized, F-3) | 26.0 | doc 11 | engine ~17 kg dry (F-4); ~35 hp HF 2-stroke; dodge motor EXCLUDED (F-2/F-3) |
| Electrical (generator+rect 3.0 + buffer ~350 Wh 2.2 + distribution 2.0) | 7.2 | doc 11 | ~1.0–1.2 kW generator, uprated for Thor-class |
| Autonomy / compute / sensors | 3.4 | doc 12 | Thor-class + recovery-field cam; excl. EO/IR gimbal motor boundary (F-8) |
| Survivability incl. divert/dodge motor ×2 + mount | 9.3 | doc 13 | divert counted HERE only (F-2) at ~4.1 kg; permissive config −4.1 |
| Comms (SDR mesh) | 0.9 | doc 15 | radio-less build −0.9 |
| Payload CPI resident interface + release path | 3.2 | doc 14 | payload modules NOT added beyond the 25 kg line |
| Recovery/reuse provisions (hook mech, chute/airbag, HUMS, fiducial) | 6.5 | doc 18 | structural lug/doublers owned by doc 10, not double-counted (F-11) |
| Empty-equipped subtotal | 104.5 | reconciled | |
| Fuel (consumable, JP-8, incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency) | 45.0 | doc 11 / baseline | counted once (F-9) |
| Payload (strike, full, contested) | 25.0 | baseline | full payload restored by 175 kg re-baseline |
| FULL-UP CONTESTED STRIKE (divert fitted, full payload) | 174.5 | ≤ 175 kg MTOW → CLOSES with +0.5 kg positive margin |
5.2 Closure summary (the dominant Rev B.1 result)
The Rev B integration found subsystems sum to ~104.5 kg empty-equipped (vs the original ~80 kg target), which made a 150 kg MTOW infeasible (≈0 kg payload). Per the integration's own recommendation, MTOW was re-baselined to 175 kg as signed growth. At 175 kg the canonical rollup is:
empty-equipped 104.5 + fuel 45.0 + payload 25.0 = 174.5 kg ≤ 175 kg MTOW
margin = +0.5 kg (positive)
This CLOSES the mass budget with the full 25 kg payload AND the terminal divert motor inside the envelope — and resolves finding F-1 / risk R-01. The closure is by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending); it is not test-verified. The +0.5 kg margin is thin and is itself a [TBR] to be grown at detailed design via the structure detail-design target (doc 10), divert modularity (−4.1 kg permissive sorties), and radio-less/gimbal-delete release valves — all of which add margin without ever touching the protected RTB reserve.
5.3 Reconciled mass summary
| Quantity | Value | vs 175 kg MTOW |
|---|---|---|
| Reconciled design-to MTOW | 175 kg | baseline (signed growth) |
| Empty-equipped (reconciled) | 104.5 kg | — |
| Empty-equipped + fuel | 149.5 kg | leaves 25.5 kg for payload |
| Full-up contested strike (divert + 25 kg payload) | 174.5 kg | −0.5 kg → CLOSES, positive margin |
| Permissive config (no divert −4.1) full-up | 170.4 kg | +4.6 kg margin / payload room |
| RTB reserve (protected first, every case) | ~4 kg (inside fuel) | never traded — airframe always returns |
Coupled honesty note (links §5.4). The mass growth that closed the mass budget opened a range gap at full payload. Both are simultaneously true: the asset closes within MTOW with positive mass margin AND the full-payload strike radius sits below the 1,500 km range floor (K5). The first is resolved here; the second is a managed performance risk (§5.4) — not resolved.
5.4 Range honesty note — K5 combined-adverse (OPEN, MANAGED, NOT a closure)
From doc 11 §3 (re-baselined to 175 kg). The heavier MTOW costs range: on nominal assumptions (L/D 14, η_p 0.75, BSFC 380 g/kWh) the full-payload recoverable strike radius is ~1,204 km — below the 1,500 km floor — and a combined-adverse swing drives it toward the program-authoritative K5 worst case of ~1,150 km.
| Range case (recoverable, full 25 kg payload, RTB reserve held) | Radius (km) | vs 1,500 km floor |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal (LD14 / η_p 0.75 / BSFC 380, 37 kg usable) | ~1,204 | −296 (below) |
| LD recovery to 16 / 17 | ~1,376 / ~1,462 | near floor |
| +10% fuel band (49.5 kg) | ~1,372 | below floor |
| K5 combined-adverse worst case (authoritative) | ~1,150 | below floor, RTB reserve protected |
Status: K5 is MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED. Resolution paths: trade payload toward ISR mass for long-radius sorties; recover cruise L/D (doc 10); use the +10% fuel band; or a CONOPS (doc 04) decision to field full-payload strike at the achievable ~1,150–1,200 km radius. Critically — because the RTB reserve is a fixed hold-back, every adverse swing eats mission radius, NOT the reserve; the airframe always comes home (DDR-15). Loiter endurance ≥12 h and the RTB reserve are met on baseline assumptions. Dyno BSFC + wind-tunnel L/D bound this risk; until measured, the full-payload range KPP is analysis-pending.
6. RECONCILED ELECTRICAL POWER BUDGET — 242 W cruise / 621 W peak
Source vs consumers. Doc 11 (propulsion/power) is the electrical source; its §8.2 table is an already-integrated ship-load total. Consumer docs (12/13/14/15/18) report their own draws. Integration verified the two views agree within subsystem tolerance.
6.1 Reconciled ship electrical load
| Load | Cruise (W) | Peak (W) | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomy / compute / sensors (Thor-class) | 95 | 190 | doc 12 |
| Flight servos / actuators | 40 | 160 | doc 11 |
| Survivability (filtering quiescent + threat-track + divert igniter) | 5 | 60 | doc 13 |
| Comms (SDR mesh) | 8 | 30 | doc 15 |
| Payload CPI resident (housekeeping) | 9 | 14 | doc 14 |
| Recovery/HUMS (sampling + terminal-capture logging burst) | 2 | 15 | doc 18 |
| Engine accessories (EFI, fuel pump, ignition, glow) | 20 | 40 | doc 11 |
| Conversion/distribution losses (~15%) | ~27 | ~76 | doc 11 |
| Reconciled consumer-side total | ~206 | ~585 | |
| Doc 11 integrated table (reported, canonical) | 242 | 621 | doc 11 |
The two methods agree within subsystem [TBR] tolerance (cruise Δ−36 W, peak Δ−36 W; doc 11 carries a slightly larger lumped payload-reserve and loss allowance). Integration adopts the doc 11 integrated figure as canonical: 242 W cruise / 621 W peak, driven by the Thor-class compute uprate per the Rev B directive — absorbed with margin.
Doc-30 contradiction flagged (R-33). Doc 30's "Budget contribution" cites an indicative ship draw of ~600 W cruise / ~1,400 W peak. Integration treats the doc 11 integrated 242/621 W as canonical; the doc-30 figure is an over-conservative informational estimate that must be reconciled down at detailed design — it does not change the budget, but if true it would flip the generator-margin KPP, so it is an explicit open action.
6.2 Generator / battery sizing confirmation
- Generator: 1.0–1.2 kW continuous (engine-driven PM alternator) vs ~621 W canonical peak → ~1.6–1.9× margin, sufficient to power the ship, feed the Thor-class compute, and recharge the buffer in flight.
- Battery buffer: ~350 Wh Li-ion handles electric start, transient/peak coincidence, silent/glide get-home reserve (supports DDR-15 recovery if the engine quits late), and EMP/HPM ride-through. Cells are a cycle-counted reuse-life item, not a per-sortie throwaway.
- PAYLOAD-MODULE FLAG (F-6): doc 14's P3 jammer module requires 450 W / 18 A bus peak; the baseline reserves only ~25 W cruise / ~80 W peak for payload. Jammer-fit peak ship load ≈ 990 W, near the 1.0–1.2 kW generator ceiling if sustained. Jammer operation is therefore duty-cycle- and buffer-limited, not continuous. Action item; does not change the baseline 242/621 (jammer is a payload-mission delta).
6.3 Reconciled power summary
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| Ship electrical — cruise | 242 W |
| Ship electrical — peak (baseline payloads) | 621 W |
| Generator continuous | 1.0–1.2 kW (≈1.6–1.9× peak margin) |
| Buffer battery | ~350 Wh |
| Jammer-config peak (payload-mission only) | ~990 W — duty-cycle/buffer limited [FLAG, F-6] |
7. RECONCILED UNIT COST (vs ≤ $150k flyaway target) — ≈ $130k flyaway
Two cost views exist. Doc 16 (DFM/cost) gives a top-down flyaway of ≈ $130k (munition-less, recoverable airframe, volume, 175 kg). Doc 30 (BOM) gives a bottoms-up material floor of ≈ $59.3k loaded. The flyaway rose slightly from the 150 kg point because the heavier engine + heavier structure are the two main cost deltas (F-4 alignment), but it stays under the ≤ $150k target.
7.1 Reconciled flyaway rollup (doc 16 canonical buckets, 175 kg)
| Cost element | $ (volume) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Structure (reuse-robust, 52 kg, incl. recovery-load fittings) | 20,000 | doc 16 bucket 1 (F-4 heavier structure) |
| Propulsion & fuel system (~17 kg dry, ~35 hp HF piston) | 29,000 | doc 16 bucket 2 (#1 cost driver, engine uprate delta; divert NOT here, F-2/F-3) |
| Compute + seeker/sensors (Thor-class, incl. EO/IR gimbal) | 22,000 | doc 16 bucket 3 (gimbal dominates; Thor module ~$1.5–3k = rounding error) |
| Avionics / power / actuation (incl. Faraday/optical-bus HW) | 11,000 | doc 16 bucket 4 |
| Survivability (laser+HPM+divert; divert ONCE, F-2) | 8,000 | doc 16 bucket 5 |
| Recovery-system airframe interface | 6,000 | doc 16 bucket 6 (sized to R-03 worst case) |
| Assembly / integration / test | 8,500 | doc 16 bucket 7 |
| Tooling / NRE amortization | 3,000 | doc 16 bucket 8 |
| Margin / integrator fee / warranty | 15,500 | doc 16 bucket 9 |
| Contingency / risk reserve | 7,000 | doc 16 |
| Top-down flyaway (canonical, doc 16) | ≈ 130,000 | doc 16 |
| Material floor corroboration (doc 30 BOM, loaded) | ≈ 59,300 | doc 30 |
7.2 Disposition and findings
- Both methods are comfortably under the $150k target (~$20k headroom on the top-down number). The ~$59.3k material floor leaves ~$70.7k for labor + test + recovery-system qual + margin, consistent with the $130k top-down build-up.
- COST-WBS MISMATCH (F-7): the cost partition is not 1:1 across docs (e.g., doc 12 self-report excludes the EO/IR gimbal that dominates doc 16's compute+sensors bucket; docs 10/13/18 report parts/process share only). The mismatch does not threaten the target either way; reconcile to a single canonical cost WBS (doc 16 §8.2) at detailed design.
- Integration adopts ≈ $130k (doc 16 top-down) as the canonical flyaway — carried into the KPP table and shoot-off cost audit. Volume trajectory → ~$100–110k at 1M units (doc 16 §8.9).
- Variant/payload flags: turbine-dash variant adds $25–60k → near/over $150k → dash-mission only (DDR-17). Payload modules are priced separately (munition [TBD] — the only per-sortie-expended cost; ISR/EW/decoy/cargo recovered and amortized over ≥50 sorties) — consistent with the munition-less flyaway.
7.3 Reconciled flyaway cost summary
| Quantity | Value | vs ≤ $150k |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical flyaway (top-down, munition-less, 175 kg) | ≈ $130,000 | UNDER (≈ $20k margin) |
| Material floor corroboration (BOM) | ≈ $59,300 | under |
| Volume trajectory (1M units) | ≈ $100–110k | well under |
| Turbine-dash variant | near/over $150k | dash-only flag |
7.4 Reconciled COST-PER-SORTIE (the Rev B economic core, DDR-15) — ≈ $3.1k
The figure that wins the fight once the airframe + seeker + compute come home. Consolidated from doc 16 §8.5 (flyaway $130k; lifetime maintenance reserve ~$26k; fuel ~$40; ablative touch-up ~$50; munition excluded — the one expended item):
| Component | Per-sortie cost @ 50-sortie life | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Airframe flyaway amortization | $130,000 / 50 = $2,600 | build cost over ≥50-sortie life [TBR, R-04] |
| Lifetime maintenance/refresh amortization | $26,000 / 50 = $520 | reserve over life |
| Fuel (~30–38 kg JP-8 bulk) | ~$40 | per-sortie |
| Ablative/skin touch-up (consumable) | ~$50 | per-sortie survivability refresh |
| Airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie | ≈ $3,210 | on the ≤ ~$3.1k target [within rounding/TBR] |
| Plus divert-motor reload (only if terminal evasion used) | +~$5,000 | mission-gated consumable |
| Plus munition | +(doc 14, [TBD]) | the single expended item (DDR-15) |
Sensitivity (the single biggest lever): 25 → 50 → 100 → 200 sorties drives the airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie ≈ $6,330 → $3,210 → $1,650 → $910. Reuse life is a larger lever than any flyaway saving — doubling life halves the dominant term. Versus the "total folly" [19:38] of an expendable airframe (~$130k + fuel + munition every shot), reusable WILDFIRE imposes the same effect at roughly 40× lower recurring cost — the decisive economic asymmetry. R-04 caveat: the engine-hour math (≥250 h TBO → ~25–40 sorties) means the 50-sortie figure is a target, not a verified life; the cost-per-sortie figure is only as good as the certified life behind it.
| Quantity | Value | vs target |
|---|---|---|
| Cost-per-sortie @ 50 sorties (airframe-amortized) | ≈ $3,210 + munition | on ≤ ~$3.1k target |
| @ 100 sorties | ≈ $1,650 + munition | well under |
| @ 25 sorties (honest engine-limited band, R-04) | ≈ $6,330 + munition | above target — managed risk |
| Recovery GSE per-sortie share (fleet-amortized infrastructure) | < $100/launch+recovery | negligible (not flyaway) |
8. Key Performance Parameter (KPP) Table — WITH HONEST STATUS
KPPs ranked producibility- and reusability-first per DDR-05/15/17. Status legend: Met (closes on reconciled analysis with margin) · Closes-pending-analysis (closes on paper at 175 kg, detailed analysis not yet complete, never test-verified) · Open-managed (real residual risk carried in the register).
| # | KPP | DDR | Threshold | Reconciled status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1 | Producibility / rate | 05,06,08 | auto/ag process; ≤1-wk train; ≥250/day line, ≥1,000/day distributed | Met (on plan, 10 lines) [TBR] (gating) |
| K2 | Unit flyaway cost (volume) | 03,05 | ≤ $150k (stretch ≤$100k) | Met — ≈ $130k [TBR] (gating) |
| K3 | GPS/RF-denied mission completion (incl. RTB) | 01,02,04 | ≥90% radios-OFF, end-to-end incl. recovery | Open-managed — heritage-backed, [TBR by shoot-off] |
| K4 | Terminal accuracy (vision-only) | 02 | ≤3.0 m CEP | Open-managed [TBR] |
| K5 | Range/endurance with payload + RTB reserve | 13,15 | ≥1,350 km radius w/ ≥22 kg and RTB reserve intact OR ≥11 h loiter + RTB | Open-managed — loiter ≥12 h met; full-payload radius ~1,204 km nominal / ~1,150 km combined-adverse → below floor (§5.4); RTB reserve protected |
| K6 | Anti-laser survivability (survive-and-return) | 09,12,15 | ≥100× TTK vs bare, <$X adder, re-flyable | Open-managed — design floor ≥10×, 100× favorable [TBR] |
| K7 | HPM/EMP survivability | 10,12 | tens-of-km → single-m equiv (~1000×) | Open-managed — ≥80 dB SE estimate [TBR chamber] |
| K8 | Kinetic terminal evasion | 11 | ≥R_pk miss (target ≥8 m) in ≤0.5 s, airframe RTB-capable | Open-managed — ~5.3 m est. @ reuse-safe 12 g (8 m @ 18 g reserve) [TBR] |
| K9 | Simultaneous tri-threat survival (DDR-12 REQ-12b/c) | 12,15 | survive scripted laser+HPM+kinetic and return to recover | Closes-pending-analysis — closes at 175 kg with positive mass margin (§5); verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), not test |
| K10 | Bounded-autonomy safety | 18 | 0 uncommanded lethal; abort/wave-off <500 ms; 100% geofence/ROE | Open-managed — independent kernel + recovery wave-off [TBR] (gating) |
| K11 | Shoot-off composite (incl. live reuse demo) | 19 | top 1–2 | Open-managed — self-scored rehearsal [TBR] |
| K12 | Reusability (life + recovery + turnaround + TBO) | 15,19 | (a) ≥50-sortie re-flyable life; (b) ≥20 successful recoveries, seeker+compute health; (c) turnaround ≤30 min; (d) engine TBO ≥50 sorties-equiv | Open-managed (gating) — design targets met on paper; R-03 Skyhook scaled ~5× beyond heritage / method not down-selected; R-04 ≥50-sortie life vs engine-hour math (~25–40) — both managed, not verified |
| K-M | MTOW / mass closure | 12,13,15 | ≤ 175 kg | Met — full-up contested strike 174.5 kg ≤ 175 kg, +0.5 kg margin (§5); F-1/R-01 RESOLVED by signed growth |
| K-P | Electrical / generator margin | 03 | gen ≥ peak load × ~1.4 | Met — 1.0–1.2 kW vs 621 W peak (≈1.6–1.9×); jammer payload duty-limited (F-6); doc-30 600/1400 contradiction to reconcile (R-33) |
Honesty footing. Only K2 / K-M / K-P / K1 are Met on reconciled analysis. The central tri-threat tension (K9 / DDR-12) is Closes-pending-analysis — resolved on mass but not on test. The reuse pillars (K12) and performance KPPs (K3–K8, K10, K11) remain Open-managed. No KPP is yet test-Verified. This is a concept study.
9. BACKFIRE AGP-2 Variant Block (summary)
BACKFIRE is a separate reusable interceptor airframe (~70% common with WILDFIRE) and contributes 0 kg / 0 W / $0 to the WILDFIRE rollup. Its own reconciled figures (from doc 20):
| Parameter | Value | DDR |
|---|---|---|
| Role | Recoverable, reusable C-UAS / C-cruise-missile interceptor | 15 |
| Configuration | Twin ~55-lbf-class micro-turbojet (engine-out reuse safety); canard+tail; rail-launch + parachute/airbag recovery (VTOL deferred) | 15,17 |
| MTOW | ~55 kg (prox-frag, full fuel) / ~44 kg (HTK, recovered) | 15 |
| Mass (own) | structure 18 + twin turbines 7 + fuel 6 + avionics/compute 3.5 + seeker 3 + actuation 2.5 + recovery 4 = ~44 kg reusable (comes home); + 8–11 kg consumable prox-frag warhead | 15 |
| Power (own) | ~300 W cruise / ~700 W peak [TBR] | 03 |
| Top speed / envelope | M0.85 cruise-dash (rocket-boost option to low-supersonic); ~15–20 km range, to ~6 km alt | 15 |
| Kill | Selectable HTK (no warhead, fully reusable) or proximity-frag (replaceable) | 15 |
| Reuse | airframe + twin turbines + seeker + Thor-class compute recovered; reuse life ≥50 sorties [TBR]; turnaround ≤~30 min | 15 |
| Unit flyaway (own, volume) | ≈ $38k (turbines ~$16k dominate) | 16 |
| Cost per engagement | ≈ $0.8k (HTK) / ≈ $4.3k (prox-frag) — both ≪ $20k target | 15 |
| Networking | Open-mesh shooter node; ingests ANY-sensor CTF, publishes EFFECT_REPORT | 14 |
BACKFIRE internal note: HTK mode is the purest DDR-15 expression — after a kill, the vehicle lands, is refueled, has its chute repacked, and re-flies, with only fuel (~$8) + a chute pyro cartridge (~$0.15k) consumed — zero rearm step, no magazine, no "semi truck full of missiles" [20:37]. Engine cost ($16k of $38k) and allied second-source are the dominant risks (shared with WILDFIRE turbine-dash). BACKFIRE MTOW/mass rollup remains [TBR by Integration].
10. Rev B.1 Closure & Findings Disposition
This section records the authoritative disposition of the Rev B integration findings under the Rev B.1 closure directive.
10.1 Findings disposition table
| ID | Finding (Rev B) | Severity | Rev B.1 disposition |
|---|---|---|---|
| F-1 | Mass overrun (dominant). Reconciled empty-equipped ≈ 104.5 kg vs ~80 kg target (+24.5 kg); empty + 45 kg fuel ≈ 149.5 kg → ≈ 0 kg payload at the old 150 kg cap; contested full-up ≈ 174.5 kg = +16% vs 150 kg. | CRITICAL | RESOLVED by signed MTOW growth 150 → 175 kg. At 175 kg the reconciled full-up = 174.5 kg ≤ 175 kg with +0.5 kg positive margin (§5), carrying the full 25 kg payload + divert motor. Risk R-01 closed. RTB reserve protected first in all cases → reuse (DDR-15) never traded. |
| F-2 | Divert/dodge motor double-count. doc 11 "dodge motor ~3.2 kg" and doc 13 "divert motor ×2 + mount ~4.1 kg" are the same physical item. | High | FIXED. Counted ONCE at doc 13's ~4.1 kg (in the 9.3 kg survivability line); the ~3.2 kg phantom removed from propulsion dry. |
| F-3 | Propulsion internal mass headline. doc 11 reported "~24.7 kg dry" but itemized ~29.2 kg including the dodge motor it flagged as belonging to survivability. | Medium | FIXED. Propulsion-dry headline = explicit ~26 kg itemization (engine 17 + prop 2.4 + fuel-sys 3.2 + gen/dist accounted under electrical), dodge motor excluded (F-2). Matches BOM. |
| F-4 | BOM mass inconsistency. doc 30 cited structure ~40 kg and engine/prop ~7 kg, contradicting owner docs. | High | FIXED. BOM masses aligned to owner docs: structure 52 kg (doc 10), engine ~17 kg dry (doc 11) — the old 40/7 split is retired. BOM reconciles to the 174.5 kg full-up at 175 kg MTOW. |
| F-5 | Mass owners assigned. Servos, launch/recovery interface, recovery mechanism each need a single owner. | Medium | Confirmed single ownership in §5.1; no orphan/double-count. |
| F-6 | Payload power mismatch. doc 14 P3 jammer needs 450 W / 18 A peak; baseline reserves ~80 W peak for payload. | Medium | Jammer is duty-cycle/buffer-limited, not continuous. doc 11 to confirm Class-C 450 W bus or doc 14 to bound duty cycle. Baseline 242/621 unaffected. |
| F-7 | Cost-WBS mismatch. doc 16 top-down buckets don't map 1:1 to subsystem self-reports. | Medium | Both under $150k — no target risk. Adopt $130k (doc 16 §8.2) as canonical WBS; reconcile siblings to it at detailed design. |
| F-8 | EO/IR gimbal mass/cost ownership ambiguity (nav gimbal vs payload ISR ball). | Medium | Define one boundary: a nav EO/IR gimbal in flyaway (mass+cost) distinct from the payload ISR ball (payload). Resolve at detailed design to prevent double-count/gap. |
| F-9 | Fuel accounting. | Resolved | Fuel counted once as a separate 45 kg line (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency). |
| F-10 | Faraday-box vs structure boundary. | Low | Complementary (structure vs EMI treatment); verify boundary at detailed design to avoid enclosure double-count. |
| F-11 | Recovery mass split (doc 10 vs doc 18). | Low | Confirmed no double-count — doc 10 owns the structural load path (inside 52 kg); doc 18 owns the mechanism/soft-goods (6.5 kg). |
10.2 Managed, NOT-YET-VERIFIED risks (do NOT claim solved)
| Risk | Statement | Status |
|---|---|---|
| R-03 | Skyhook recovery scaled ~5× beyond heritage (heritage ~22 kg class; WILDFIRE captures at ~105 kg empty-equipped). Recovery method not yet down-selected (Skyhook vs parachute+airbag). On-airframe fittings sized to worst-case load pending down-select. | MANAGED, NOT VERIFIED — single biggest reuse-capability risk; retire via captive rig + ≥20 live 175 kg-class captures (doc 17/18, DDR-19). |
| R-04 | ≥50-sortie engine/structural reuse life vs engine-hour math. At ≥250 h TBO a representative sortie (~6–10 engine-hours) gives only ~25–40 sorties on hours alone; the ≥50 target is met only by treating short sorties as the design population + mid-life inspection. | MANAGED, NOT VERIFIED — cost-per-sortie figure is only as good as the certified life. Retire via endurance dyno + fatigue coupon program + reuse-cycle demo. |
| K5 | Combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor. Full-payload radius already below floor nominally (~1,204 km). RTB reserve protected regardless — adverse swings eat mission radius, not the reserve. | MANAGED, NOT VERIFIED — retire via dyno BSFC + wind-tunnel L/D and/or a CONOPS payload/radius trade (doc 04). |
10.3 DDR-12 (REQ-12b/c) closure statement
DDR-12 — "survive laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously while holding range + payload + RTB within MTOW" — closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), NOT test-verified. The mass arm closes with positive margin (§5: 174.5 ≤ 175 kg, full payload + divert motor carried). The performance arm carries the residual K5 range risk (§5.4). Per the DDR register, REQ-12a is Designed, REQ-12b/12c are Closes (analysis-pending) — stronger than "Open," weaker than "Verified."
10.4 What was held vs. changed
- Held: electrical budget (242/621 — both views agree within tolerance); generator/battery sizing; flyaway-under-$150k; cost-per-sortie ≈ $3.1k target; part-count, line-training, rate KPPs; reuse-life ≥50 / turnaround ≤30 min targets; BACKFIRE block.
- Changed by Integration (Rev B.1): MTOW re-baselined 150 → 175 kg (signed growth) — F-1/R-01 resolved; divert motor counted once in survivability and removed from propulsion dry (F-2/F-3); BOM masses aligned to owner docs — structure 52, engine 17 (F-4); flyaway updated to ≈ $130k (heavier engine + structure deltas); cost-per-sortie ≈ $3,210.
- Carried as managed risks (not solved): R-03 Skyhook scaling / method down-select; R-04 ≥50-sortie life vs engine-hour math; K5 combined-adverse range. DDR-12 REQ-12b/c closes analysis-pending, not verified. The doc-30 600/1400 W electrical figure (R-33) must be reconciled to the canonical 242/621.
Budget contribution
This is the integration/spec document; it reconciles and reports the family rollup but adds no physical subsystem of its own. Mass/power/cost owned here = 0; the values below are the reconciled family totals it is responsible for.
- Mass: 0 kg added by this document.
- Reconciled WILDFIRE rollup: 175 kg MTOW = empty-equipped 104.5 + fuel 45 + payload up to 25 = 174.5 kg full-up → CLOSES within 175 kg with +0.5 kg positive margin. F-1/R-01 resolved by signed MTOW growth.
- Mass breakdown (canonical, kg): structure 52.0 · propulsion dry 26.0 (engine 17 + prop 2.4 + fuel-sys 3.2; dodge motor excluded, F-2/F-3) · electrical 7.2 (gen+rect 3.0 + buffer 2.2 + dist 2.0) · autonomy/compute 3.4 · survivability incl. divert ×2 9.3 (divert counted once, F-2) · comms 0.9 · CPI 3.2 · recovery/reuse 6.5 → empty-equipped 104.5; + fuel 45.0 (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency); + payload up to 25.0.
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W added by this document.
- Reconciled ship electrical budget: 242 W cruise / 621 W peak; generator 1.0–1.2 kW continuous (≈1.6–1.9× peak margin); buffer ~350 Wh. Jammer-payload config peak ~990 W is duty-cycle/buffer-limited (F-6). Doc-30 600/1400 W to be reconciled down to canonical (R-33).
- Unit cost (volume): $0 added by this document.
- Reconciled WILDFIRE flyaway (munition-less, reusable airframe, 175 kg): ≈ $130,000 (canonical top-down, doc 16) — under the ≤ $150k target by ≈ $20k; material-floor corroboration ≈ $59.3k; volume trajectory ≈ $100–110k at 1M units. BACKFIRE ≈ $38k (own rollup).
- Flyaway breakdown ($): structure 20,000 · propulsion+fuel-sys 29,000 · compute+sensors (incl. gimbal) 22,000 · avionics/power/actuation 11,000 · survivability (divert once) 8,000 · recovery interface 6,000 · assembly/test 8,500 · tooling amort 3,000 · margin 15,500 · contingency 7,000. (F-7: this WBS differs from subsystem self-reports; both < $150k.)
- Cost-per-sortie (the Rev B economic core, DDR-15): ≈ $3,210 airframe-amortized ($130k/50 + maint + fuel + ablative) + munition — on the ≤ ~$3.1k target; falls to ~$1,650 @ 100-sortie life; rises to ~$6,330 @ the honest engine-limited 25-sortie band (R-04). Recovery GSE is fleet-amortized infrastructure (<$100/launch+recovery), not flyaway.
- Reuse impact:
- This document is the integration governance artifact for the reuse KPP (DDR-15): it reconciles and protects the ≥50-sortie reuse-life and ≤30-min turnaround targets against silent trade-away, holds the RTB reserve first in the mass/range trade (so the airframe always comes home even under the K5 adverse case), and books cost-per-sortie (≈ $3,210 airframe-amortized) — not flyaway alone — as the decisive economic figure, a roughly 40× recurring-cost reduction vs an expendable airframe ([19:38] "total folly").
- It allocates the reuse-critical interfaces to accountable owners: recovery load paths (doc 10) and mechanism (doc 18), RTB reserve (doc 11), autonomous precision recovery + wave-off + HUMS log (doc 12/18), reuse-life/turnaround verification (doc 17 K12), and the no-one-way-airframe rule (family-wide).
- It contributes zero mass/power/cost penalty of its own; it is the mechanism that keeps reuse a primary, family-wide KPP rather than an afterthought. No one-way WILDFIRE or BACKFIRE exists in the family (DDR-15). The reuse pillars rest on the managed, not-yet-verified R-03 / R-04 items.
- Assumptions / [TBR]:
- MTOW 175 kg (Rev B.1 signed growth); full-up 174.5 kg closes with +0.5 kg margin (F-1/R-01 resolved). Closure is by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), not test.
- Electrical totals agree across source/consumer views within tolerance; canonical = doc 11 integrated 242/621 W. Doc-30 600/1400 W contradiction (R-33) to be reconciled down.
- Flyaway = doc 16 top-down ≈ $130k (canonical); cost WBS to be unified (F-7); cost-per-sortie ≈ $3,210 @ 50-sortie life (DDR-15).
- Divert/dodge counted once (~4.1 kg, survivability, F-2/F-3); propulsion-dry headline ~26 kg (F-3); structure 52 kg / engine 17 kg dry (F-4).
- EO/IR nav-gimbal vs payload-ISR-ball boundary to be fixed to prevent mass/cost double-count or gap (F-8).
- Managed, NOT-YET-VERIFIED: R-03 (Skyhook scaled ~5× beyond heritage / method not down-selected), R-04 (≥50-sortie life vs engine-hour math ~25–40), K5 (combined-adverse range ~1,150 km vs 1,500 km floor; RTB reserve protected). Reuse life 50 [TBR]; turnaround ≤30 min [TBR].
- DDR-12 REQ-12b/c closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — not "verified." No KPP is yet test-Verified. This is a concept study, not a frozen design. All figures are design targets/estimates; no validated test data exists yet.
Design Driver Register — Traceability to the Interview
RTMDocument: 02_design_driver_register.md
Program: AGP Autonomous Air System Family — Reusable Autonomous Combat UAS (WILDFIRE AGP-1 hero platform; BACKFIRE AGP-2 reusable-interceptor variant)
Source of truth: 00_seed_design_brief.md (Rev B.1) — Design Driver Register (DDR-01..DDR-20) + locked baseline §3 (175 kg MTOW)
Verbatim source: SOURCE_interview_transcript.txt (Palmer Luckey, Inside West Point — Ideas That Impact, YouTube k2THslsOYzY)
Status: Concept design / engineering study — NOT a frozen design. All numbers are targets or estimates; unverified items carry [TBR] or [TBD]. Closure claims in this RTM are by analysis (analysis-pending verification), never by test.
REV B BANNER — TWO PROGRAM-OWNER DIRECTIVES (highest priority; this RTM is rebaselined to them)
- REUSABILITY IS A PRIMARY, FAMILY-WIDE KPP (DDR-15). WILDFIRE and BACKFIRE are both recoverable and reusable — the airframe + seeker + compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition (if any) is expended. Palmer is emphatic that a throw-away airframe is "a total folly" [19:38] and that "I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe" [20:30]. This RTM removes all one-way / expendable-airframe framing for WILDFIRE and elevates DDR-15 from a BACKFIRE-only driver (Rev A) to a system-wide top-tier KPP with WILDFIRE-owned requirements (REQ-15a..15h below).
- UNCONSTRAINED BY AIGP COMPETITION SPECS — BUILD THE BEST DRONE. The AIGP autonomy stack (vision-only nav, no GPS/LiDAR, MAVLink) is heritage/proof that the brain works; it is not a hardware ceiling. Compute, sensors, propulsion, and materials are best-in-class, consistent with the manufacturing doctrine (DDR-05/06/07). All Rev A "competition-hardware / Jetson-class / Group-racer" ceilings are struck; numeric targets below are rebaselined to the Rev B locked envelope (brief §3).
REV B.1 CLOSURE BANNER — MTOW RE-BASELINED 150 → 175 kg (authoritative; overrides every 150 kg number below)
The Rev B integration found the empty-equipped rollup (~104.5 kg) made a 150 kg MTOW infeasible (≈0 kg payload) — original finding F-1 / risk R-01 (mass overrun). Per the integration's own recommendation, MTOW is re-baselined to 175 kg (385 lb) as SIGNED GROWTH. This RESOLVES F-1 / R-01 by rebaseline. The reconciled full-up strike configuration ≈ 174.5 kg, which now CLOSES within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin and restores the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor. - Reconciled masses (canonical, brief §3.1): empty-equipped ~104.5 kg (structure ~52 + propulsion dry ~26 + electrical ~7.2 + autonomy ~3.4 + survivability ~9.3 + comms ~0.9 + CPI ~3.2 + recovery ~6.5); fuel 45 kg (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency); payload up to 25 kg. Terminal divert ("dodge") motor is counted ONCE, in survivability (~4.1 kg) — the ~3.2 kg phantom is removed from propulsion dry (closes prior double-count finding F-2). - Propulsion uprates to ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline) for the heavier MTOW; the RTB fuel reserve is a fixed hold-back and stays protected regardless of mission outcome. - DDR-12 (REQ-12b/12c) and DDR-13 (REQ-13b payload) now CLOSE at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin — stated as "closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending)," not "verified." - HONESTY — still MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED risks (do NOT claim solved): R-03 Skyhook recovery scaled ~5× beyond heritage (recovery method not down-selected — TBR-10); R-04 ≥50-sortie engine/structural life vs engine-hour math (REQ-15e — TBR-11); K5 combined-adverse range (~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor; RTB reserve protected regardless). Reuse life 50 remains [TBR]. This is a CONCEPT STUDY, not a frozen design.
Purpose of this document. The seed brief's §2 DDR table is the compressed register. This document is its expansion into a full, verifiable requirements traceability matrix (RTM): every DDR is decomposed into one or more uniquely-IDed engineering requirements (REQ-xx), each with a verification method, an owning subsystem document, and a status. It is the contract that ties Palmer's words → testable requirements → subsystem ownership, and it is the artifact the T&E team (
17_test_verification_validation.md) and Integration (03_system_specification.md) audit against. No requirement may exist without a DDR parent; no DDR may exist without an owner.
0. DDRs satisfied by this document
This is a cross-cutting governance document. It is the owner of traceability discipline itself, which is the engineering realization of:
- DDR-17 (36:54–37:41, "Don't build the Batmobile") — "focus on things that are actually in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed." Requirements discipline is the mechanism that prevents gold-plating. This RTM is how we prove every feature traces to a driver — including the discipline that removed the one-way airframe (DDR-15) as itself a no-Batmobile decision.
- DDR-15 (19:30–20:46, reusable kinetics) — this RTM is the artifact that promotes reusability to a family-wide top-tier KPP and allocates its requirements to WILDFIRE (recovery, reuse-life, turnaround) as well as BACKFIRE.
- DDR-19 (21:40, shoot-off) — every requirement carries a verification method so the design is demonstrable, instrumented, not asserted — including a reuse/turnaround demonstration (REQ-19d).
- all — by construction this matrix touches every DDR; it is the index the rest of the package is checked against.
1. How to read the matrix
1.1 Requirement ID scheme
REQ-NN[a/b/c] — NN is the parent DDR number; the letter suffix distinguishes multiple requirements derived from one driver. Example: DDR-02 yields REQ-02a (vision en-route nav) and REQ-02b (terminal optical homing). This keeps the parent driver visible in every requirement ID, so traceability is readable without a lookup.
1.2 Verification method (per DDR-19 — design to a "shoot-off")
| Code | Method | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| A | Analysis | First-order calc, simulation (SITL/HITL), modeling, link/thermal/mass budget. |
| T | Test | Physical bench/ground/flight test producing instrumented data. |
| D | Demonstration | End-to-end mission/scenario run showing the capability (incl. the live shoot-off and the recover-refuel-rearm-relaunch cycle). |
| I | Inspection | Drawing/BOM/process review, design audit, part-count count, source review. |
Most requirements list a primary method and (where relevant) a supporting one, e.g. A→T = analysis now, validated by test before the shoot-off.
1.3 Status
| Status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Allocated | Requirement written and assigned to an owning doc; design pending or in progress. |
| Designed | Owning doc has a baseline design that addresses it (see locked baseline, brief §3 Rev B.1). |
| Closes (analysis-pending) | New in Rev B.1. The requirement now closes on paper against the 175 kg locked envelope with positive margin, but closure rests on a detailed mass + performance analysis that is not yet complete (and never on test). Used for the DDR-12 / DDR-13 mass-closure requirements resolved by the 150→175 kg rebaseline. Stronger than "Open," weaker than "Verified." |
| Open | Requirement depends on an unresolved [TBR]/[TBD] or a decision not yet made (e.g., recovery method down-select, ≥50-sortie reuse-life confirmation). |
At concept stage essentially everything is Allocated, Designed-on-paper, or (Rev B.1) Closes (analysis-pending); nothing is Verified because we do not fabricate validated test results (per authoring standard). The Verified column is reserved for T&E (17_…) to fill post-test. The Rev B.1 rebaseline resolves the mass-overrun finding (F-1 / R-01) by signed growth — it does NOT convert any requirement to Verified.
1.4 KPP tiering (Rev B)
Two drivers are explicitly top-tier KPPs, ranked above peak performance, and gate design freeze:
- DDR-15 — Reusability (recoverable airframe + reusable seeker + reusable compute; reuse-life, turnaround, runway-independent launch/recovery). The economic core: when airframe+seeker+compute come home, cost-per-engagement collapses to fuel (+ optional munition).
- DDR-05 — Design-for-Manufacture (DFM) (mass producibility; automotive/ag bill-of-process; ≥1,000/day).
These two are co-equal and both rank above peak performance (per brief §1 governing rule and §6 constraints). Range + payload (DDR-13) and concurrent survivability (DDR-12) are the next-tier performance KPPs, bounded by the two top-tier KPPs and by the requirement to survive to return home (reuse). (Rev B.1: with MTOW at 175 kg the next-tier KPPs — full 25 kg payload + concurrent survivability + RTB reserve — now close within the envelope with positive margin, analysis-pending; the top-tier reuse-life and recovery-method items remain OPEN/managed.)
1.5 Owning subsystem documents (from brief §5 manifest, Rev B)
01 Exec summary · 03 System spec · 04 CONOPS · 10 Airframe/structures · 11 Propulsion/power · 12 Autonomy/compute/SW · 13 Survivability/EW · 14 Payload/effects · 15 Comms/networking/C2 · 16 Manufacturing/DFM/cost · 17 T&E/V&V · 18 Recovery/Reuse/Lifecycle · 20 BACKFIRE variant · 30 BOM · 40 Risk register.
Rev B manifest change: a dedicated
18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.mdnow owns the recovery system, turnaround, reuse life, and sortie economics. DDR-15's WILDFIRE requirements are primarily allocated to 18 (with 10/11 for recovery loads and RTB fuel).
2. Master Requirements Traceability Matrix (DDR-01 .. DDR-20)
Each block: the verbatim quote + timestamp, then the derived REQ rows.
DDR-01 — On-board autonomy replaces the datalink
[14:36] "all of these schemes around radio frequency lengths and fiber optics… they're probably going to go away because it's going to be cheaper, better, faster, more resilient to just have on board autonomy do basically everything."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-01a | The full mission (launch → ingress → search → ID → terminal → effect → recover/RTB) shall be executable with all radios OFF — zero functional dependence on any RF datalink, fiber, or off-board command for mission completion or for recovery. | D→T | 12, 15, 18 | Designed |
| REQ-01b | Any RF/optical link present shall be opportunistic (situational reporting, swarm coordination, human-on-the-loop release): loss of link shall cause no abort and no degradation of the primary kill/ISR/recovery chain. | A→D | 15, 12 | Designed |
| REQ-01c | The autonomy stack shall run fully onboard on the edge-AI module (no cloud, no remote inference) for perception → pose → guidance → control, including terminal recovery guidance (Skyhook capture / parachute trigger). | A→T | 12, 18 | Designed |
DDR-02 — Navigate like a pilot: vision, not GPS/RF
[16:01] "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… do it the way that a pilot would. You look out the window and you… drive to the place you need to go until you see the thing you need and go to it."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-02a | En-route navigation shall be vision-based (scene/landmark/terrain matching + visual-inertial odometry), achieving en-route position keeping with GPS unavailable over the full Rev B radius (1,500–2,500 km). Target en-route cross-track error [TBR] (≤ ~order 1% of distance traveled between visual fixes, assumption pending sim). | A→T→D | 12 | Designed |
| REQ-02b | Terminal phase shall perform onboard visual target detection/ID and optical terminal homing to the aimpoint without any RF aid. | T→D | 12, 14 | Designed |
| REQ-02c | Sensor suite shall provide the field-of-regard and resolution for REQ-02a/b: 3–6 wide-FOV global-shutter cameras + 1 EO/IR gimbal (per Rev B locked baseline, brief §3.1), with optical flow and baro as inertial aids, plus a low-SWaP star tracker option. (Best-in-class sensors per Rev B directive 2 — not limited to competition cameras.) | A→I | 12, 14 | Designed |
| REQ-02d | A graceful-degradation nav mode shall exist for visually-degraded conditions (night/low-vis/featureless): dead-reckon on voted dual MEMS IMU + baro (+ optional low-SWaP star tracker), with bounded drift between fixes. Drift budget [TBR]. | A | 12 | Open |
| REQ-02e | The return-to-base leg shall navigate vision-only to the recovery point and present the airframe to the recovery device (Skyhook line / net / parachute IPZ) within the capture envelope — reuse depends on vision-nav working both ways (links DDR-15). Recovery-approach accuracy [TBR]. | A→T→D | 12, 18 | Open |
Interpretation note IN-1 applies (see §5): "any other radio" is read to also exclude active radar/LiDAR as a navigation primary, not just GPS.
DDR-03 — Best-in-class edge compute; cost is a rounding error
[14:53–15:53] "\$300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price [of a \$200,000 Barracuda]… two Moore's-law 18-month cycles away from it being much cheaper." Supporting [15:25] "The chips cost hundreds of dollars today… You just wait 3 or 4 years, it's going to be cheaper than all those things, less jammable, more resilient."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-03a | Mission compute shall be a best-in-class COTS edge-AI module (Thor-class, ~1,000–2,000 TOPS) per Rev B locked baseline (brief §3.1). Rev B strikes the Rev A "~200–275 TOPS / competition-hardware" ceiling — the AIGP module is heritage/proof only, not the production part. | I→A | 12, 16 | Designed |
| REQ-03b | Compute cost shall remain a rounding error against the WILDFIRE flyaway target (≤ \$150k, Rev B): even a Thor-class module at ~\$1–3k is ≤ ~2% of flyaway and is acceptable per DDR-03. Compute is never the cost driver. | A | 12, 16 | Designed |
| REQ-03c | Architecture shall be compute-agnostic / refresh-tolerant: the autonomy stack shall port to a successor module (next Moore's-law node) without airframe or harness redesign — standard module footprint, power, and thermal envelope reserved with margin. Because the airframe is reused ≥50 sorties (DDR-15), the compute bay shall support mid-life compute upgrade without structural rework. | I→A | 12, 03, 18 | Allocated |
| REQ-03d | No mission function shall require a non-COTS, export-restricted, or single-source accelerator that breaks the cost or producibility case (links DDR-20 allied co-production). | I | 12, 30 | Allocated |
DDR-04 — Jam-proof: kill the RF dependency, not just the comms
[15:54] "completely resistant to all jamming systems, not just on the communications, but also things like navigation."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-04a | The system shall complete its mission and recover under total RF denial (comms-jammed AND nav-jammed/GPS-denied) — direct consequence of REQ-01a + REQ-02a + REQ-02e. | D | 12, 15, 13, 18 | Designed |
| REQ-04b | There shall be no single RF point of failure on the critical path: no function whose loss aborts the mission or recovery may depend on a single receiver, antenna, or band. | A→I | 15, 12 | Allocated |
| REQ-04c | EW resilience shall be demonstrated against representative jamming (GPS spoof/jam + comms jam) at the shoot-off (links DDR-19), through to recovery (a jammed RTB still recovers the asset). | D | 17, 13, 18 | Allocated |
DDR-05 — Mass producibility is a TOP-TIER KPP
[09:11 / 21:55] "the most important thing is to build weapons that we can actually manufacture… valuing mass producibility in a very serious way."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-05a | Design-for-Manufacture (DFM) shall be a top-tier KPP, ranked above peak performance and co-equal with reusability (DDR-15); every subsystem trade shall record its producibility and reuse impact (per authoring standard, brief §5c). | I | 16, ALL | Allocated |
| REQ-05b | The WILDFIRE structural part count shall be < 120 (Rev B locked baseline; was < 100 in Rev A — relaxed to absorb the robust, reuse-capable structure of DDR-15 within DFM primitives). | I | 10, 16 | Designed |
| REQ-05c | Any subsystem proposing an exquisite material/process (Ti billet, autoclave CFRP primary structure, etc.) shall be rejected unless producibility-justified and signed off by Integration (brief §6). | I | 16, 03 | Allocated |
| REQ-05d | A producibility KPP score shall be maintained and rolled up by Manufacturing; it gates design freeze jointly with the reuse-life KPP (DDR-15). | I→A | 16, 18 | Allocated |
DDR-06 — Buildable in a Ford/GM/Deere/Caterpillar factory; 1-week line training
[21:55–23:31] "demonstrate it being made in a Ford or GM or John Deere or Caterpillar factory… train them how to make it in 1 week, and missiles start coming off the line."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-06a | The bill-of-process shall be restricted to automotive / agricultural-implement manufacturing primitives (stamping, roll-forming, press-brake, robotic MIG welding, structural adhesive, riveting, EFI/turboprop assembly) — no aerospace-exclusive processes on the critical path. | I | 16, 10 | Designed |
| REQ-06b | Line-training time ≤ 1 week: complete, validated work instructions shall let a commodity production line begin output within 5 working days. | D→I | 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-06c | Tooling shall be commodity (standard presses, jigs, weld cells); no bespoke single-purpose tooling that cannot be sourced from existing automotive/ag suppliers. Recovery-system hardware (Skyhook line interface, parachute mortar, airbag) shall likewise be commodity-sourced (links DDR-15). | I | 16, 30, 18 | Allocated |
| REQ-06d | A factory-transfer demonstration (work instructions + components + training package proving 1-week standup) shall be a planned acceptance event. | D | 16, 17 | Allocated |
DDR-07 — Accept weight/perf penalty for producibility (and for reuse robustness)
[10:01–11:20] "the radius that you could press with a single stage bench into a piece of steel… heavier planes, less performance, but… rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-07a | Sheet-metal features shall be formable with single-stage press radii (no progressive/multi-stage deep draws on primary structure). | I | 10, 16 | Designed |
| REQ-07b | Joining shall be rivets + robotic MIG welds + structural adhesive; standard heat-treat only (no exotic multi-cycle heat treatments). Joints shall be qualified for repeated recovery-load cycles (≥50 sorties, DDR-15) — fatigue, not just static, governs (links REQ-15e). | I→A | 10, 16, 18 | Designed |
| REQ-07c | Generous tolerances: dimensional tolerances shall be set as loose as function allows; tight-tolerance features must be individually justified. | I→A | 10, 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-07d | A producibility-and-reuse-for-performance trade is pre-authorized: structural mass and aero performance may be traded down to protect the bill-of-process and the reuse-life KPP, with the delta noted (links DDR-13 tension — bounded by range/payload KPPs and by the Rev B.1 175 kg MTOW). | A→I | 10, 03, 18 | Allocated |
Interpretation note IN-2 applies: "crappy glue / worse welds than you've ever seen" is doctrine, not a literal quality target — and Rev B sharpens it: welds/adhesive must additionally pass fatigue for reuse. See §5.
DDR-08 — A thousand a day, not a thousand a decade
[11:32] "build a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-08a | The design shall support a surge production rate of ≥ ~1,000 units/day across distributed lines (locked baseline). | A→D | 16, 30 | Designed |
| REQ-08b | No component shall have a lead time or single-source constraint incompatible with REQ-08a (rate-limiting parts flagged in BOM). | I→A | 30, 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-08c | Takt-time and line-balance analysis shall demonstrate the per-station cycle times that close the ≥1,000/day case. | A | 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-08d | Reuse multiplies effective fleet capacity: the production-rate KPP shall be assessed against effective fielded sorties = units built × reuse-life (≥50, DDR-15), so the ≥1,000/day surge yields ~50× the engagement capacity of a one-way fleet. Documented in the cost/rate model. | A | 16, 18 | Allocated |
Interpretation note IN-3: "1,000/day" is read as the aggregate distributed-fleet surge target, not a single-line rate — see §5.
DDR-09 — \$10 of Home Depot makes you 100× more laser-survivable
[17:55–18:17] "trip to Home Depot and \$10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser." (context [18:02] "It is not that hard to make a drone survive against a laser.")
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-09a | The airframe skin shall incorporate low-cost anti-laser hardening (ablative and/or reflective treatment + thermal mass) raising dwell-time-to-kill by a large factor vs. bare composite. Quantified "100×" is aspirational; design target = engineered ablative/reflective layup, parts-cost adder < \$X [TBR] (target ≤ low tens of \$). | A→T | 13, 10 | Designed |
| REQ-09b | Optional airframe spin / roll in terminal phase shall be available to distribute laser dwell over the skin surface (spreads spot energy). | A→T | 13, 11 | Allocated |
| REQ-09c | Anti-laser measures shall not violate the producibility (DDR-06/07), mass (DDR-13, 175 kg MTOW Rev B.1), or reuse-life budgets — hardening must be a paint/skin/layup operation that survives ≥50 sorties (or is a quick-replace consumable scored against turnaround), not an exquisite add. | I→A | 13, 16, 18 | Allocated |
| REQ-09d | Laser-ablative skin that is consumed by an engagement shall be a field-replaceable panel re-applied within the ≤30 min turnaround (links REQ-15d); reuse of the airframe shall not be gated by single-use hardening. | A→T | 18, 13 | Open |
Interpretation note IN-4 applies (see §5).
DDR-10 — HPM/EMP hardening (range from km to meters)
[18:17–18:35] "fry normal drones with high-powered microwaves… make it a thousand times more survivable… range from tens of kilometers down to simply meters."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-10a | All avionics/compute shall reside in a Faraday-enclosed bay with controlled apertures; HPM-induced effective engagement range shall be driven down by a large factor (design intent "1,000×"; engineering target = bay shielding effectiveness [TBR] dB across threat band). | A→T | 13, 12 | Designed |
| REQ-10b | Internal data bus shall be optical (fiber) for HPM immunity; no long unshielded copper runs on critical signals. | I→A | 13, 12, 15 | Designed |
| REQ-10c | All penetrations (sensor windows, antenna feeds, control linkages, power in) shall have transient/EMP protection (TVS, waveguide-below-cutoff windows, filtered feed-throughs). | A→T | 13 | Allocated |
| REQ-10d | Hardening shall be verified by bounded HPM/EMP exposure test to a specified threat level [TBD] before shoot-off; because the asset is reused, the bay shall demonstrate hardening is non-degrading across repeated exposures (or be re-qualifiable at turnaround). | T | 17, 13, 18 | Open |
DDR-11 — Terminal kinetic evasion ("dodge" motor)
[18:35–18:46] "solid rocket boosters that shove you out of the way at the last second and bring you out of the probable kill radius."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-11a | A terminal lateral divert capability (solid-divert motor and/or high-g aerodynamic jink) shall generate sufficient miss-distance to exit the probable kill radius of a representative interceptor/frag pattern. Required lateral displacement & onset time [TBR] by survivability analysis. | A→T | 11, 13, 12 | Designed |
| REQ-11b | The autonomy stack shall detect the threat cue and command the evasion within the available reaction time, fully onboard (links REQ-01c). Reaction-time budget [TBR]. | A→D | 12, 13 | Open |
| REQ-11c | Divert hardware shall be low-cost and producible within DDR-06/07 primitives and shall not compromise structural, fuel, or recovery-fuel-reserve budgets. If a single-use solid divert is selected, its cartridge shall be a field-reloadable consumable scored against the ≤30 min turnaround (links DDR-15); an aerodynamic-jink alternative that requires no consumable is preferred where it closes the miss-distance, to protect reuse economics. | I→A | 11, 10, 16, 18 | Allocated |
DDR-12 — Survive laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously, keep range + payload, AND return home
[18:46–19:16] "almost impossible to build something that can stop all three of those at the same time… flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way, and somehow survives all of these systems at the same time."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-12a | WILDFIRE shall integrate anti-laser (DDR-09) + HPM (DDR-10) + kinetic-evasion (DDR-11) survivability concurrently in one airframe. This is the central system tension and is owned at the system level. | A→D | 03, 13, ALL | Designed |
| REQ-12b | Concurrent survivability shall be achieved while meeting the range and payload KPPs (DDR-13) and the RTB/recovery reserve (DDR-15): the combined survivability mass+volume penalty shall fit within the Rev B.1 locked MTOW 175 kg, empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, fuel ~45 kg (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency), and payload up to 25 kg budgets. Rev B.1: CLOSES at 175 kg MTOW — the reconciled full-up strike config ≈ 174.5 kg sits below 175 kg with positive margin, with the full 25 kg payload AND terminal divert motor (counted once in survivability, ~4.1 kg) carried. Closure is by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), not by test. (Rev A's 95 kg / 16 kg AND Rev B's 150 kg / ~80 kg figures are both superseded.) | A | 03, 13, 11, 18 | Closes (analysis-pending) |
| REQ-12c | A survivability vs. range/payload/reuse trade study shall quantify the cost of "all three at once" and confirm no single hardening measure breaks another (e.g., spin for laser vs. seeker stability) or breaks recoverability (e.g., divert motor vs. RTB fuel). Rev B.1: the trade closes at 175 kg with positive margin (analysis-pending). Residual performance risk is tracked, not mass-closure risk: combined-adverse range may fall to ~1,150 km worst case vs the 1,500 km floor (risk K5), but the RTB reserve is a protected hold-back regardless; recovery-load and reuse-life confirmations stay OPEN (TBR-10/11). | A | 13, 03, 18 | Closes (analysis-pending) |
| REQ-12d | Survivability is now in service of reuse: the design intent is not merely to survive the engagement but to survive to return home so the airframe+seeker+compute can be reused (DDR-15). "Survive all three" therefore means survive all three and recover. | A→D | 03, 13, 18 | Designed |
This is the requirement that operationalizes the program thesis: WILDFIRE's job is to impose Palmer's "almost impossible design constraints" on the enemy C-UAS designer (see DDR-16) — and then come home and do it again (DDR-15).
DDR-13 — Range and payload are co-equal performance KPPs, preserved to terminal, plus RTB reserve
[19:06] "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-13a | WILDFIRE shall achieve ~1,500–2,500 km strike radius (including the RTB leg for recovery) / 12–20 h loiter (Rev B locked baseline; heavy-fuel pusher, turboprop dash option), [TBR] by propulsion analysis. (Rev A "~1,500 km / 8–10 h, one-way" is superseded — radius now explicitly budgets the return leg.) | A | 11, 03, 18 | Designed |
| REQ-13b | WILDFIRE shall carry up to 25 kg modular payload delivered to the target (Rev B; was 16 kg in Rev A). Rev B.1: the full 25 kg payload is RESTORED and confirmed within the 175 kg MTOW — the Rev B mass overrun had threatened to squeeze payload toward zero at 150 kg; the signed growth to 175 kg closes the budget (≈174.5 kg full-up) with the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor and positive margin (analysis-pending). Only the munition is expended — EO/IR ISR, EW pod, decoy, seeker, and cargo modules are recovered with the airframe (links DDR-15). Payload fraction shall be preserved to terminal phase (survivability measures shall not consume the payload allocation). | A→T | 14, 11, 10, 18 | Closes (analysis-pending) |
| REQ-13c | Range and payload shall be treated as co-equal performance KPPs (next tier below the top-tier reuse/DFM KPPs); neither may be silently traded to satisfy survivability, DFM, or the RTB reserve without an Integration-signed note. | I | 03, 18 | Allocated |
| REQ-13d | Common-fuel mandate: propulsion shall run heavy fuel (JP-8/Jet-A) to preserve logistics range and to make refuel-in-30-min (DDR-15) a commodity-logistics operation, not a special-handling event. | I→T | 11, 18 | Designed |
| REQ-13e | The fuel budget (~45 kg) shall include a sized RTB / recovery reserve (Rev B.1 canonical: ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency) sufficient to fly the return leg, hold for a recovery slot, and execute the recovery approach (Skyhook/parachute) with margin. The RTB reserve is a fixed, protected hold-back — not consumed by mission stretch and protected even in the combined-adverse range case (K5). Exact reserve fraction within the 45 kg remains [TBR] by mission analysis. | A | 11, 18 | Open |
DDR-14 — Every sensor is a sensor for every effector; open standards, no stovepipes
[17:02–17:45] "Every sensor needs to be a sensor for every effector and vice versa… everything must be networked… common data format… open interoperable standards… no… stovepipe." Supporting [17:55 / 32:00] "It has to be open interoperable standards, just like we've seen the domestic commercial technology industry develop for things like web interoperability."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-14a | The system shall ingest tracks from any networked sensor and cue any networked effector via a common, open track/data format (no proprietary encoding). | D→I | 15, 03 | Allocated |
| REQ-14b | There shall be no proprietary stovepipe: all external interfaces (track-in, cue-out, C2) shall use published open standards; vendor-locked formats are prohibited (links DDR-17 / no Batmobile). | I | 15, 03 | Allocated |
| REQ-14c | WILDFIRE swarm members shall exchange tracks/intent over the open layer (radios opportunistic per REQ-01b). | D | 15, 12 | Allocated |
| REQ-14d | (Primary for BACKFIRE) The interceptor shall accept fire-control-quality tracks from third-party sensors and be cued to engage — sensor=effector mesh participation. | D | 20, 15 | Allocated |
Interpretation note IN-5: a single canonical track standard is [TBD]; the requirement is "open + common," not a named standard yet. See §5.
DDR-15 — REUSABILITY: recoverable airframe + reusable seeker + reusable compute (PRIMARY, FAMILY-WIDE KPP)
[19:30] "the final thing at the top of my pinnacle, kinetics need to be reusable." [19:32–19:39] "kinetics need to be reusable. We need to get away from this idea that we throw away every interceptor every single time. It'll never work. It's a total folly." [19:46–19:57] "we cannot build multi-million dollar missiles or even hundred thousand dollar missiles where we just throw away the engine and the seeker and the computer and the airframe and everything every single time we shoot down one target." [20:07–20:32] "scaling down the fighter interceptor model to interceptors that are very very fast, but… maybe turbine powered, maybe rocket powered… go out there, destroy things… and then they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [20:40–20:46] "If I have a reusable system, I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use. So reusable kinetics, it's absolutely critical."
Rev B promotion. In Rev A this driver was scoped to BACKFIRE only. Rev B makes reusability a PRIMARY, FAMILY-WIDE top-tier KPP (§1.4). WILDFIRE — the hero platform — is recoverable and reusable: the airframe, seeker, and compute come home every sortie; only the munition (if any) is expended. Palmer's "I'm not throwing away my airframe" [20:30] applies to the whole family. Accordingly DDR-15 now spawns WILDFIRE-owned requirements (recovery, reuse-life, turnaround) in addition to the BACKFIRE ones, with 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md as primary owner.
WILDFIRE (AGP-1) reuse requirements — primary owner 18:
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-15a | WILDFIRE shall be recoverable and reusable. The airframe + seeker + compute shall survive every nominal sortie and be refueled, rearmed, and reused. No one-way airframe configuration is permitted (brief §6; "a total folly" [19:38]). Only the munition (if any) is the expended item. | D→T | 18, 10, 14 | Designed |
| REQ-15b | Runway-independent launch: WILDFIRE shall launch without prepared runway via rail / RATO (rocket-assisted take-off) (no landing gear in baseline). Launch loads shall be within the reusable structure's fatigue allowables (links REQ-07b). | A→T→D | 18, 10, 11 | Designed |
| REQ-15c | Runway-independent recovery: WILDFIRE shall be recovered via Skyhook-type vertical-cable arrest (baseline), with parachute + airbag as the documented alternate and VTOL recovery as a traded option (brief §3.1). The recovery method shall impose recovery loads within reusable-structure allowables and shall be executable vision-only, radios-off (links REQ-01a/02e). | A→T→D | 18, 10, 12 | Designed |
| REQ-15d | Turnaround (refuel + rearm) ≤ 30 min by a small team (Rev B locked baseline), using commodity ground support (heavy-fuel bowser, munition cradle, hand tools) — no special facility. Turnaround time shall be an instrumented, demonstrated metric (links DDR-19). | T→D | 18, 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-15e | Designed reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR] before depot-level overhaul/retirement. Primary structure, recovery-load paths, propulsion, and recovery hardware shall be qualified to ≥50 launch+recovery fatigue cycles with margin; the figure is [TBR] pending fatigue analysis and coupon/full-scale test. | A→T | 18, 10, 11 | Open |
| REQ-15f | Reuse health-management: the airframe shall carry onboard structural/health monitoring (load counting, hard-landing/over-g detection, engine health) sufficient to qualify each airframe for its next sortie or flag it for inspection — automated reuse-qualification, no full teardown between sorties. Sensor set & criteria [TBR]. | A→T | 18, 12 | Open |
| REQ-15g | Sortie economics: with the airframe amortized over ≥50 sorties, WILDFIRE cost-per-sortie shall be ≤ ~\$3k (airframe-amortized) + fuel + munition (Rev B locked baseline). This is the economic core of the program: "I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use" [20:42]. Cost model owned by 16/18. |
A | 18, 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-15h | Modular, munition-only-expended payload: payload bays shall be field-swappable modules (strike munition, ISR, EW, decoy, cargo) so that the only item consumed in a strike sortie is the releasable munition; ISR/EW/seeker/compute return for reuse (links REQ-13b, DDR-14). | I→D | 14, 18 | Designed |
BACKFIRE (AGP-2) reuse requirements — primary owner 20 (carried from Rev A, retained):
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-15i | BACKFIRE shall be a recoverable, reusable C-UAS / C-cruise-missile interceptor: airframe + seeker + compute survive the engagement and are refueled, rearmed, reused. | D→T | 20, 18 | Designed |
| REQ-15j | BACKFIRE shall be "very very fast" [20:11]: high-subsonic cruise (~M0.85), rocket-boost dash to low-supersonic; turbine baseline ("maybe turbine powered, maybe rocket powered… I love turbines" [20:14]), rocket-boost option. | A | 20, 11 | Designed |
| REQ-15k | Kill mechanism shall be selectable: replaceable proximity continuous-rod/frag OR fully-reusable hit-to-kill kinetic (no warhead) — "or just be a pure pure pure kinetic energy" [20:23]. | A→T | 20, 14 | Designed |
| REQ-15l | Per-engagement cost = fuel (+ optional warhead), amortized airframe; target ≪ \$20k/shot (locked baseline) — "I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [20:30]. | A | 20, 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-15m | BACKFIRE shall share the WILDFIRE vision-nav autonomy core + passive-IR/active-RF terminal seeker (family commonality). | I→D | 20, 12 | Allocated |
DDR-16 — Even unkilled, degrade the attacker's payload/range envelope
[19:16] "even if I can't stop them, I'm going to take payload away. Their bombs are going to have to get smaller. Their range is going to have to go down… get in closer."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-16a | The defensive architecture (BACKFIRE + WILDFIRE survivability) shall be designed so that, even when it does not kill, it forces the attacker to trade payload for survivability — i.e., the survivability features (DDR-09/10/11/12) are the mechanism that imposes this cost. This is a CONOPS-level effect requirement. | A | 04, 03 | Allocated |
| REQ-16b | CONOPS shall document the "virtuous cycle" [19:27] layered-defense effect (drives enemy closer → engageable by other layers) as a measurable mission objective, sustained over many engagements by reuse (the defender does not run out of interceptors — DDR-15). | I→A | 04, 18 | Allocated |
Interpretation note IN-6: DDR-16 is dual-facing — WILDFIRE imposes this on the enemy; BACKFIRE benefits. Captured in CONOPS, not a hardware spec. See §5.
DDR-17 — Requirements discipline ("Don't build the Batmobile")
[36:54–37:41] "not building the cool thing… makes no sense because there's no customer… focus on things that are actually in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-17a | Every feature/requirement shall trace to a DDR and a named mission/customer (this RTM is the enforcement artifact). Untraced features shall be removed. | I | 03, ALL | Allocated |
| REQ-17b | No capability without a named mission in CONOPS (brief §6); CONOPS and RTM shall be cross-consistent. | I | 04, 02 | Allocated |
| REQ-17c | No RF-dependent function on the critical path (brief §6, reinforces DDR-01/04). | I→A | 12, 15 | Allocated |
| REQ-17d | Performance may be traded down to protect producibility, reusability, cost, and survivability (brief §6); design reviews shall reject gold-plating. | I | 03, 16, 18 | Allocated |
| REQ-17e | Each subsystem doc shall open with its DDR IDs and end with a Budget-contribution (incl. a Reuse-impact line) + Open-issues block (Rev B authoring standard, brief §4/§5) — compliance is auditable. | I | ALL | Allocated |
| REQ-17f | No one-way airframe. If an effect can be delivered by a recoverable platform + expendable munition, it must be (brief §6 / DDR-15). A throw-away-airframe proposal is, by definition, a rejected Batmobile ("a total folly" [19:38]). | I | 03, 18 | Allocated |
DDR-18 — Bounded, auditable autonomy (dumb-AI-in-evil-hands risk)
[33:01–33:11] "I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-18a | Autonomy shall be bounded and deterministic at the safety layer: hard geofence and ROE constraints that the learned policy cannot override. | A→T | 12 | Designed |
| REQ-18b | Human-on-the-loop for lethal release: positive control / authorized-release gate before any kinetic effect (the link may be opportunistic per REQ-01b, but the authorization model is mandatory). | A→D | 12, 04 | Allocated |
| REQ-18c | A deterministic abort / safe-state behavior shall exist (loss of valid mission, geofence breach, fault) that is independent of the learned model. Abort shall default to a recoverable safe-state (RTB / loiter / controlled recovery) wherever feasible, preserving the asset for reuse (links DDR-15) rather than self-destruct. | A→T | 12, 18 | Allocated |
| REQ-18d | The autonomy stack shall be testable and auditable: logged decisions, reproducible behavior in SITL/HITL, bounded inputs. | T→I | 12, 17 | Allocated |
Interpretation note IN-7 applies (see §5).
DDR-19 — Design to a live, instrumented shoot-off (incl. a reuse demonstration)
[21:40] open competitions where companies "compete… at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win."
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-19a | Every KPP shall have a defined verification method and an instrumented success criterion (this matrix's Verify column is the seed) suitable for a live shoot-off — including the top-tier reuse and DFM KPPs. | I→D | 17, 02 | Allocated |
| REQ-19b | The system shall be instrumented (telemetry/logging) to produce evidence at the shoot-off without compromising the radios-off CONOPS (record locally, downlink post-flight). | A→T | 17, 12 | Allocated |
| REQ-19c | A shoot-off readiness/V&V plan shall map each REQ to its demonstration event (owned by 17_…). |
I | 17 | Allocated |
| REQ-19d | The shoot-off shall include a reuse / turnaround demonstration: a recovered WILDFIRE shall be refueled + rearmed within ≤30 min and re-launched (links REQ-15d), and a multi-sortie reuse run shall be demonstrated toward the ≥50-sortie reuse-life claim (links REQ-15e). | D→T | 17, 18 | Allocated |
DDR-20 — Supply chain portable to distributed/allied production
[23:24] "as a consolation prize our close allies… a bunch of Japanese automotive workers." (context [23:16] "every weapon that is important can be mass-produced at a scale that actually matters by the industry America actually has.")
| REQ ID | Derived requirement | Verify | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REQ-20a | The bill-of-process and BOM shall be portable to allied automotive/ag production (e.g., Japanese automotive lines) — no US-exclusive process on the critical path, including the recovery-system hardware (links DDR-15). | I | 16, 30, 18 | Allocated |
| REQ-20b | Critical components shall be second-sourceable (≥2 qualified suppliers or commodity substitutes) to enable distributed production and de-risk single points (links DDR-08). | I | 30, 16 | Allocated |
| REQ-20c | Exportability shall be considered in component selection (ITAR/export posture) so allied co-production is legally feasible; flagged where a part blocks export [TBR]. The Thor-class compute (Rev B) export posture is explicitly flagged here (links REQ-03d). | I | 30, 16 | Open |
3. Coverage Summary — every DDR is owned by ≥ 1 subsystem
The matrix below confirms 100% DDR coverage: each driver has ≥1 derived REQ and ≥1 owning document. "Primary owner" = the doc accountable for closing the requirement; "supporting" = contributing docs. (Rev B adds doc 18 and rebaselines DDR-15.)
| DDR | REQs | Primary owner doc | Supporting docs | Verify mix | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDR-01 | 01a,01b,01c | 12 Autonomy | 15 Comms, 18 Reuse | D,A,T | ✔ |
| DDR-02 | 02a–02e | 12 Autonomy | 14 Payload, 18 Reuse | A,T,D | ✔ |
| DDR-03 | 03a–03d | 12 Autonomy | 16 Mfg/cost, 30 BOM, 03 Sys, 18 Reuse | I,A | ✔ |
| DDR-04 | 04a–04c | 12 Autonomy | 15 Comms, 13 Surv, 17 T&E, 18 Reuse | A,D,I | ✔ |
| DDR-05 | 05a–05d | 16 Mfg (top-tier KPP) | ALL, 10 Airframe, 03 Sys, 18 Reuse | I,A | ✔ |
| DDR-06 | 06a–06d | 16 Mfg | 10 Airframe, 30 BOM, 17 T&E, 18 Reuse | I,D | ✔ |
| DDR-07 | 07a–07d | 10 Airframe | 16 Mfg, 03 Sys, 18 Reuse | I,A | ✔ |
| DDR-08 | 08a–08d | 16 Mfg | 30 BOM, 18 Reuse | A,D,I | ✔ |
| DDR-09 | 09a–09d | 13 Survivability | 10 Airframe, 11 Prop, 16 Mfg, 18 Reuse | A,T,I | ✔ |
| DDR-10 | 10a–10d | 13 Survivability | 12 Autonomy, 15 Comms, 17 T&E, 18 Reuse | A,T,I | ✔ |
| DDR-11 | 11a–11c | 11 Propulsion | 13 Surv, 12 Autonomy, 10 Airframe, 16 Mfg, 18 Reuse | A,T,D,I | ✔ |
| DDR-12 | 12a–12d | 03 System | 13 Surv, 11 Prop, 18 Reuse, ALL | A,D | ✔ (12b/12c close at 175 kg, analysis-pending) |
| DDR-13 | 13a–13e | 11 Propulsion | 14 Payload, 10 Airframe, 03 Sys, 18 Reuse | A,T,I | ✔ (13b 25 kg payload restored, closes at 175 kg, analysis-pending) |
| DDR-14 | 14a–14d | 15 Comms/C2 | 03 Sys, 12 Autonomy, 20 BACKFIRE | D,I | ✔ |
| DDR-15 | 15a–15m (13 REQs) | 18 Recovery/Reuse (WILDFIRE) + 20 BACKFIRE | 10 Airframe, 11 Prop, 12 Autonomy, 14 Payload, 16 Mfg | A,T,D,I | ✔ |
| DDR-16 | 16a,16b | 04 CONOPS | 03 Sys, 18 Reuse | A,I | ✔ |
| DDR-17 | 17a–17f | 03 System / PM | 04 CONOPS, 16 Mfg, 18 Reuse, ALL, 02 RTM | I | ✔ |
| DDR-18 | 18a–18d | 12 Autonomy | 04 CONOPS, 17 T&E, 18 Reuse | A,T,D,I | ✔ |
| DDR-19 | 19a–19d | 17 T&E | 02 RTM, 12 Autonomy, 18 Reuse | I,D,A,T | ✔ |
| DDR-20 | 20a–20c | 16 Mfg | 30 BOM, 18 Reuse | I | ✔ |
Coverage assertion: 20/20 DDRs covered; 0 orphan drivers; 0 orphan requirements (every REQ has a parent DDR). Total derived requirements: 86 (REQ-01a … REQ-20c) — up from 74 in Rev A, the increase driven primarily by the family-wide DDR-15 promotion (now 13 REQs) plus the added recovery/RTB/abort-to-recover requirements on neighboring drivers.
3.1 Owner load (which docs carry the most requirements, Rev B)
| Owner doc | Primary-owned DDRs | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Autonomy/compute/SW | 01, 02, 03, 04, 18 (+ supports 10,11,15,19) | Heaviest load — the AIGP heritage brain is the core of the program thesis (heritage/proof, not a HW ceiling). |
| 16 Manufacturing/DFM/cost | 05, 06, 08, 20 (+ supports 03,09,10,11,15) | DFM is a top-tier KPP (DDR-05), co-equal with reuse; cross-cuts everything. |
| 18 Recovery/Reuse/Lifecycle | 15 (WILDFIRE share) (+ supports 01,02,07,12,13,16,17,19) | New in Rev B. Owns the recovery system, turnaround, reuse-life, and sortie economics — the second top-tier KPP. |
| 13 Survivability/EW | 09, 10 (+ supports 04,11,12) | Owns the laser/HPM half of the "all three" tension — now survive to RTB. |
| 11 Propulsion/power | 11, 13 (+ supports 09,15) | Range/payload + RTB reserve + divert. |
| 20 BACKFIRE | 14(shared), 15(BACKFIRE share) | Full reusable-interceptor variant. |
| 03 System spec | 12, 17 (+ integration of all budgets incl. reuse) | Owns the central survivability-vs-range-vs-reuse tension and the no-Batmobile / no-one-way-airframe gate. |
| 15 Comms/C2 | 14 (+ supports 01,04,10) | Open network layer. |
| 10 Airframe | 07 (+ supports 05,06,09,11,13,15) | DFM + reuse-robust structure (fatigue-governed). |
| 04 CONOPS | 16 (+ supports 17,18) | Effect-level + mission requirements (incl. reuse cycle). |
| 17 T&E | 19 (+ verification of 04,06,10,15,18) | Shoot-off + reuse/turnaround demo; holds the Verified column. |
| 30 BOM | (supports 03,06,08,15,20) | Supply chain / second-source / recovery hardware. |
No single point of ownership for the central tension. DDR-12 ("survive all three, keep range+payload, and return home") is deliberately system-owned (03) so that Autonomy, Survivability, Propulsion, Airframe, and Reuse (18) cannot each locally optimize and break the whole. With Rev B, the integration hinge is now four-way: survivability × range/payload × DFM × reuse.
4. Verification roll-up (for the shoot-off — DDR-19)
| Method | # of REQs (primary) | Representative events |
|---|---|---|
| A Analysis | ~33 | mass/power/cost rollup against 175 kg MTOW (Rev B.1) — DDR-12/13 mass-closure analysis-pending; range & loiter calc incl. protected RTB reserve; survivability miss-distance; shielding-effectiveness; takt-time; nav drift sim; reuse-life fatigue analysis; cost-per-sortie model. |
| T Test | ~19 | laser-dwell coupon test; HPM/EMP exposure; divert-motor static fire; engine/fuel bench; EW jam test; launch & recovery-load fatigue cycling; recovery-device capture test. |
| D Demonstration | ~22 | radios-off full mission including vision-only recovery; GPS-denied nav; factory-1-week standup; WILDFIRE recover→refuel→rearm→relaunch ≤30 min; multi-sortie reuse run; BACKFIRE recover-rearm-reuse; open-track interop; the live shoot-off. |
| I Inspection | ~32 | part-count < 120; bill-of-process audit; second-source review; export posture (incl. Thor-class); DDR-traceability audit; authoring-standard compliance (incl. Reuse-impact line); modular munition-only-expended payload audit. |
(Counts include supporting methods, so they exceed 86; each REQ has one primary method in §2.)
Hard rule (authoring standard): no row may be marked Verified until 17_test_verification_validation.md records instrumented evidence. This document fabricates no test results.
5. Interpretation Notes (where a quote needs engineering interpretation)
Palmer's interview is rhetorical and audience-facing; several drivers require engineering translation. These notes record how we interpreted, so a reviewer can challenge the interpretation rather than guess at it.
| ID | Driver | The literal quote | Engineering interpretation | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN-1 | DDR-02 | "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio" | We exclude all RF/active-emission nav as primary — not only GPS, but active radar and (by extension) LiDAR as a navigation primary — since LiDAR, while not "radio," shares the active-emission/detectability problem the quote is reacting to. Passive EO/IR vision is primary, both outbound and on the RTB/recovery leg (REQ-02e). | The intent (resilient, non-jammable, like a pilot's eyes) is best served by passive sensing; consistent with the locked nav suite. |
| IN-2 | DDR-07 | "crappy glue… worse welds than you've ever seen" | Manufacturing doctrine (accept WWII-grade, high-rate processes), not a literal quality target. Rev B adds: commodity adhesive + robotic MIG welds must be qualified to a defined adequate margin including fatigue for ≥50 reuse cycles (REQ-07b/15e) — "good enough, made fast, and survives reuse," not "bad." | A literal reading fails structural V&V; reuse adds a fatigue floor the joints must clear. |
| IN-3 | DDR-08 | "a thousand a day" | Read as the aggregate distributed/allied surge rate (DDR-20), not a single-line throughput. Rev B note: because the fleet is reusable (≥50 sorties), the effective engagement capacity is ~50× the units built (REQ-08d). | Single line at 1,000 complex airframes/day is implausible; Palmer's framing (Ford/GM/Deere + allies) implies distributed; reuse multiplies effect. |
| IN-4 | DDR-09 | "\$10 / Home Depot / 100× more survivable" | Captured as a principle (commodity-cost, large-multiple laser hardening), engineering targets ($X adder, dwell multiplier) [TBR]; Rev B adds that consumed ablative skin must be a field-replaceable panel so a laser hit does not end the airframe's reuse life (REQ-09d). | Preserves cheap-and-effective intent without fabricating a literal "100×"/"\$10"; protects reuse. |
| IN-5 | DDR-10 | "a thousand times more survivable" | Same treatment as IN-4 for HPM: principle captured, "1,000×" → shielding-effectiveness [TBR] in dB, validated by exposure test (REQ-10d), shown non-degrading across repeated exposures for reuse. | Survivability multipliers depend on threat/range/aperture — analyzed, not asserted; reuse adds the repeat-exposure condition. |
| IN-6 | DDR-14 | "open interoperable standards… common data format" | Requirement is "open + common," not a named standard; canonical track standard [TBD] pending 15_… selection. |
Palmer notes (32:00) the landscape is "a horrible wild west"; naming one now over-commits. |
| IN-7 | DDR-18 | "dumb AI in the hands of evil people" | Read as a safety/assurance driver: bounded/deterministic safety layer, geofence/ROE, human-on-the-loop lethal release, auditable logs. Rev B adds: the deterministic abort shall default to a recoverable safe-state (RTB/loiter) rather than destroy the asset, consistent with reuse (REQ-18c). Cyber/anti-tamper deferred to 40_risk_register [TBR]. |
Aerospace scope here is assured autonomy; reuse means abort should preserve, not waste, the airframe; cyber is tracked separately. |
| IN-8 | DDR-16 | dual-facing payload-degradation effect | Interpreted as two requirements on two platforms: WILDFIRE imposes the cost on the enemy; BACKFIRE exploits it. Captured as a CONOPS effect requirement (REQ-16a/b). Rev B: the defender sustains the effect over many engagements because it does not run out of (reusable) interceptors. | A system-of-systems effect, not a component; reuse is what makes the "virtuous cycle" durable. |
| IN-9 | DDR-11 | "solid rocket boosters that shove you out of the way" | Interpreted permissively as "terminal lateral divert," allowing a small solid-divert motor or an aerodynamic high-g jink. Rev B preference: where the aerodynamic jink closes the miss-distance, prefer it (no consumable to reload at turnaround); a solid divert must be a reloadable consumable scored against the ≤30 min turnaround (REQ-11c). | Locks the effect (miss-distance) not the mechanism; reuse economics favor the no-consumable option. |
| IN-10 | DDR-15 | "kinetics need to be reusable… I'm not throwing away my airframe" | Rev B core interpretation: reusability is family-wide and primary, not BACKFIRE-only (the Rev A scoping). WILDFIRE — the hero — is recoverable and reusable; only the munition is expended. "Reusable kinetics" generalizes to "reusable air vehicles delivering effects," with the air vehicle (airframe+seeker+compute) always recovered. Quantified reuse-life (≥50), turnaround (≤30 min), and runway-independent launch/recovery are the engineering realization. | The quote's economic logic ("I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use," [20:42]) applies to any combat air vehicle, and Palmer's "total folly" framing condemns one-way airframes generally; restricting it to BACKFIRE under-uses the strongest cost lever he identifies. |
6. Open Issues / [TBR]
| # | Item | Owner | Drives |
|---|---|---|---|
| TBR-1 | En-route vision-nav cross-track accuracy, visually-degraded drift budget, and recovery-approach accuracy (REQ-02a/02d/02e). | 12/18 | nav fix cadence, sensor count, recovery-envelope capture |
| TBR-2 | Anti-laser parts-cost adder \$X, dwell-time multiplier, and consumed-skin field-replacement scheme (REQ-09a/09d). | 13/18 | survivability mass/cost, turnaround |
| TBR-3 | HPM/EMP shielding-effectiveness target (dB), threat level for exposure test, non-degradation across repeated exposures (REQ-10a/10d). | 13/17 | bay design, test plan |
| TBR-4 | Terminal divert lateral displacement, onset time, autonomy reaction-time budget, and divert-consumable vs. aero-jink reuse trade (REQ-11a/11b/11c). | 11/13/12/18 | divert sizing, turnaround |
| TBR-5 | RESOLVED BY REBASELINE (Rev B.1) for mass-closure. The DDR-12 survivability-vs-range/payload-vs-reuse trade now closes within Rev B.1 175 kg MTOW / 45 kg fuel (incl. ~4 kg protected RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency) / 25 kg payload at ≈174.5 kg full-up with positive margin (REQ-12b/12c, analysis-pending — not test-verified). Residual item retained: the performance arm — combined-adverse range may dip to ~1,150 km vs 1,500 km floor (risk K5) — and the detailed-analysis sign-off remain open; the mass-overrun risk (F-1/R-01) is closed. | 03/18 | whole-system mass & fuel budget (mass-closure resolved; range performance + analysis sign-off pending) |
| TBR-6 | Canonical open track/data standard selection (REQ-14a, IN-6). | 15 | interop, BACKFIRE cueing |
| TBR-7 | Export/ITAR posture of critical components incl. Thor-class compute for allied co-production (REQ-20c/03d). | 30/16 | second-source, DDR-20 |
| TBR-8 | Cyber/anti-tamper scope split between assured-autonomy (here) and program security (40_) per IN-7. | 40/12 | DDR-18 completeness |
| TBR-9 | Single-line vs distributed split that closes ≥1,000/day, and effective-capacity credit for reuse (REQ-08a/08c/08d, IN-3). | 16/18 | rate KPP credibility |
| TBR-10 | Recovery method down-select (Skyhook baseline vs. parachute+airbag alt vs. VTOL trade) and its recovery-load envelope (REQ-15c). | 18/10 | structure, recovery hardware mass/cost |
| TBR-11 | Reuse-life figure (≥50 sorties) confirmation by fatigue analysis + coupon/full-scale launch+recovery cycling (REQ-15e). | 18/10/11 | structure qualification, cost-per-sortie |
| TBR-12 | Turnaround (≤30 min) task analysis — refuel/rearm/skin-replace/divert-reload sequence, team size, GSE (REQ-15d/09d/11c). | 18/16 | sortie tempo, manning |
| TBR-13 | Onboard reuse health-management sensor set and next-sortie qualification criteria (REQ-15f). | 18/12 | reuse-qualification logic |
| TBR-14 | RTB / recovery fuel-reserve fraction sizing within the 45 kg budget (REQ-13e). | 11/18 | range vs. recoverability |
7. Change control
This RTM is rebaselined against 00_seed_design_brief.md Rev B.1 (read 2026-06-01). Any new requirement must (a) cite a DDR parent, (b) receive a REQ ID under that DDR's number, (c) name an owner doc and a verification method, and (d) be added to the §3 coverage table. Any requirement that cannot cite a DDR parent is, by definition, a Batmobile (DDR-17) and shall be rejected or escalated to add a new driver with Integration sign-off. Any proposal for a one-way WILDFIRE airframe is rejected on sight (DDR-15 / REQ-17f / brief §6).
Rev B → Rev B.1 delta log (this document): - MTOW re-baselined 150 → 175 kg (385 lb) as signed growth, per the integration's own recommendation. RESOLVES the mass-overrun finding F-1 / risk R-01 by rebaseline. All 150 kg / ~80 kg-empty figures struck; canonical envelope is now 175 kg MTOW, empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, fuel 45 kg (incl. ~4 kg protected RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency), payload up to 25 kg. - REQ-12b / REQ-12c status changed Open → "Closes (analysis-pending)": the survive-laser+HPM+kinetic-while-holding-range+payload+RTB tension now closes within 175 kg at ≈174.5 kg full-up with positive margin, by detailed mass + performance analysis (not test). New status value "Closes (analysis-pending)" defined in §1.3. - REQ-13b status changed Designed → "Closes (analysis-pending)": the full 25 kg payload is restored and confirmed within the 175 kg MTOW. - Mass-overrun is the only thing rebaseline resolves. Mass-closure mapped to TBR-5 marked resolved-by-rebaseline; nothing converted to Verified. - Kept OPEN/managed (do NOT claim solved): REQ-15e ≥50-sortie reuse life (TBR-11 / risk R-04); recovery-method down-select REQ-15c (TBR-10 / risk R-03, Skyhook scaled ~5× beyond heritage); REQ-13e RTB-reserve fraction (TBR-14); combined-adverse range performance (risk K5, RTB reserve protected regardless). - Divert/dodge motor double-count fixed (F-2): charged ONCE to survivability (~4.1 kg); the ~3.2 kg phantom removed from propulsion dry. Propulsion dry headline = explicit ~26 kg itemization, dodge motor excluded (F-3). BOM masses reconciled to owner docs (structure 52 kg, engine ~17 kg dry) (F-4). These are reflected where REQ-11/12/13 reference the mass budget. - Propulsion uprated to ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline) for the heavier MTOW (REQ-13a propulsion analysis input). - Flyaway ~\$130k (engine uprate adds a little; still ≤ \$150k, REQ-03b/15g); cost-per-sortie ~\$3.1k airframe-amortized over ≥50 sorties + fuel + munition (REQ-15g); reuse life 50 [TBR] (REQ-15e).
Rev A → Rev B delta log (this document):
- DDR-15 promoted from BACKFIRE-only to PRIMARY, FAMILY-WIDE KPP; added WILDFIRE recovery/reuse-life/turnaround REQs (REQ-15a–15h); BACKFIRE REQs renumbered to REQ-15i–15m. Verbatim quote block expanded to full reusability passage [19:30–20:46].
- Reusability (DDR-15) and DFM (DDR-05) explicitly marked top-tier KPPs (new §1.4), ranked above peak performance.
- Numeric rebaseline to Rev B locked envelope: MTOW 95→150 kg; payload 16→25 kg; part count <100→<120; compute ~200–275 TOPS→Thor-class 1,000–2,000 TOPS; flyaway $85k→$150k; range 1,500 km one-way→1,500–2,500 km radius incl. RTB; loiter 8–10 h→12–20 h. All "competition-hardware" ceilings struck (Rev B directive 2).
- Added doc 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md as primary owner of DDR-15 (WILDFIRE) and supporting owner across DDR-01/02/07/12/13/16/17/18/19/20.
- Added recovery/RTB/abort-to-recover sub-requirements on neighboring drivers (REQ-01a/c, 02e, 04a/c, 12d, 13e, 18c) and reuse-aware conditions on survivability/divert/skin (REQ-09c/d, 10d, 11c).
- Added REQ-17f (no one-way airframe) and REQ-19d (reuse/turnaround demonstration).
- Authoring-standard requirement REQ-17e updated to include the new Reuse-impact line in every Budget-contribution block (Rev B directive 4).
- Interpretation note IN-10 added (the family-wide reusability reading); IN-2/3/4/5/7/9 amended for reuse implications.
- Total REQ count 74 → 86.
Budget contribution
This is a governance / traceability document. It specifies no hardware and therefore contributes no mass, power, or recurring unit cost to the WILDFIRE platform. (Its cost is non-recurring engineering — requirements-management labor — which is out of scope of the flyaway-cost rollup.)
- Mass: 0 kg (N/A — no hardware).
- Breakdown: N/A.
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W (N/A — no hardware).
- Unit cost (volume): \$0 (N/A — non-recurring engineering only; no per-unit flyaway contribution).
- Breakdown: N/A. (NRE for requirements management is tracked in the program cost model, not the unit flyaway, per DDR-03/DDR-17 cost discipline.)
- Reuse impact: Indirect but foundational — net positive. This RTM is the artifact that promotes reusability (DDR-15) to a top-tier, family-wide KPP, allocates the WILDFIRE recovery/reuse-life/turnaround requirements (REQ-15a–15h) to an accountable owner (
18), and adds the no-one-way-airframe gate (REQ-17f) and the reuse/turnaround shoot-off demonstration (REQ-19d). It contributes no mass/power/cost penalty to reuse life or turnaround; it is the governance mechanism that protects the ≥50-sortie reuse-life and ≤30-min turnaround targets from being silently traded away (REQ-05a/07d/13c/17d). Rev B.1 note: the 175 kg rebaseline restores positive mass margin so survivability + full payload + protected RTB reserve no longer compete with reuse; reuse-life (REQ-15e) itself remains a managed [TBR]. - Assumptions / [TBR]:
- Assumes the seed brief §3 Rev B.1 locked baseline is authoritative; this doc allocates requirements to that envelope (175 kg MTOW (385 lb), empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, fuel 45 kg incl. ~4 kg protected RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency, 25 kg payload, ≥50 sorties [TBR], ≤30 min turnaround, ~\$130k flyaway (≤\$150k), ~\$3.1k/sortie airframe-amortized + fuel + munition) and does not itself size hardware.
- The mass-overrun finding F-1 / risk R-01 is RESOLVED BY REBASELINE (signed 150→175 kg growth); REQ-12b/12c and REQ-13b now close at 175 kg MTOW (analysis-pending), not Verified. No requirement in this RTM is Verified.
- All survivability/performance multipliers stated by Palmer ("100×", "1,000×", "\$10") are treated as principles, not validated targets (IN-4/IN-5); engineering targets are [TBR] to owning docs.
- Still MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED (do NOT claim solved): reuse-life ≥50 sorties (REQ-15e, TBR-11 / risk R-04 engine-hour math); recovery-method down-select (REQ-15c, TBR-10 / risk R-03 Skyhook scaled ~5× beyond heritage); RTB-reserve fraction (REQ-13e, TBR-14); combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor (risk K5, RTB reserve protected regardless). This remains a concept study, not a frozen design.
- Coverage assertion (20/20 DDRs, 86 REQs, 0 orphans) is by inspection and becomes Verified only when
17_…and03_…confirm each owning doc has accepted its allocation. - Open [TBR] items: TBR-1 … TBR-14 (see §6; TBR-5 now resolved-by-rebaseline for mass-closure).
§ 04Concept of Operations & Mission Profiles
CONOPS▾
Concept of Operations & Mission Profiles
CONOPSProgram: AGP Autonomous Air System Family — Reusable Autonomous Combat UAS Platform (this doc): WILDFIRE (AGP-1) hero platform; BACKFIRE (AGP-2) defensive CONOPS summary Document role: Defines how WILDFIRE is launched, navigated, survived, employed, recovered, and re-sortied across the mission set. Establishes the operational logic that every subsystem designs to. Status: Concept design. All numbers are design targets/estimates; unverified items carry [TBR] / [TBD].
REV B FRAMING (highest priority — applies to every profile in this doc)
WILDFIRE is RECOVERABLE and REUSABLE. The airframe + seeker + compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, health-checked, and re-flown. Only the munition (if any) is expended. There is no one-way WILDFIRE mission — a one-way airframe is the "total folly" Palmer rejects [20:22 / 19:38]. Every mission profile in this document therefore ends in recovery + re-sortie, and the reuse cycle (Section 11) is a first-class part of the CONOPS, not an afterthought. Unconstrained by AIGP competition specs. The AIGP vision-autonomy stack is heritage/proof the brain works; production uses best-in-class compute (Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS), sensors, and propulsion (DDR-03/05/06/07). No competition-hardware ceiling.
0. DDR Coverage (traceability)
This document is the primary owner of the CONOPS-class drivers and a consumer of the rest.
| DDR | Driver (short) | How this CONOPS satisfies it |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-13 | "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way" | Mission profiles size leg/loiter/terminal energy against the locked 1,500–2,500 km round-trip radius / 25 kg envelope including RTB reserve; payload fraction preserved to terminal phase in every profile. |
| DDR-15 | "kinetics need to be reusable… come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused… I'm not throwing away my seeker… airframe" | Every WILDFIRE profile recovers the airframe + seeker + compute and re-sorties. Section 11 defines the full launch→…→Skyhook-recovery→refuel/rearm/health-check→re-sortie cycle at ≤30 min turnaround, ≥50-sortie reuse life. Cost-per-sortie deterrence is Section 7. |
| DDR-16 | "even if I can't stop them… take payload away… get in closer" | Section 7 makes the deterrence / impose-cost logic explicit, now coupled to the cost-per-sortie lever: a reusable WILDFIRE imposes cost on the enemy at ~fuel+munition price, not at airframe price. |
| DDR-17 | "Don't build the Batmobile… no customer = no build" | Every profile names a real customer/mission and effect; no capability appears without a mission (Section 8 audit). Recovery hardware is justified by reuse economics, not gold-plating. |
| DDR-18 | "more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people" | Section 6 defines bounded, testable, human-on-the-loop ROE: positive control, geofence/ROE constraints, deterministic abort, auditable decision log. |
| DDR-19 | open competitions / instrumented shoot-off | Profiles are written as instrumentable, demonstrable runs with measurable success criteria (Section 9), including a recovery + turnaround + re-sortie demonstration (DDR-15/19). |
Primary drivers consumed (owned by other docs, exercised here): DDR-01 (RF not on critical path), DDR-02 (vision nav + terminal ID), DDR-03 (best-in-class compute), DDR-04 (jam-resistant), DDR-05/06/07 (DFM), DDR-09/10/11/12 (laser+HPM+kinetic survivability — and survive to RTB), DDR-14 (open networking for swarm), DDR-08/20 (mass production, allied second-source).
Governing constraint (DDR-01, [14:36]): "all of these schemes around radio frequency lengths and fiber optics… are probably going to go away because it's going to be cheaper, better, faster, more resilient to just have on-board autonomy do basically everything." Every mission profile in this document completes with all radios OFF. RF (SDR mesh, optional SATCOM) is treated as opportunistic — it improves the mission when present, but is never on the critical path. If the mission cannot be flown radios-dark, it is not a valid WILDFIRE mission.
1. Operational Concept Overview
WILDFIRE is a Group 3, recoverable & reusable, fixed-wing autonomous strike/multirole UAS that executes the full kill chain — navigate, find, identify, decide, act, egress, come home, re-arm, fly again — using onboard vision autonomy, with no required link to GPS, RF datalink, or fiber (DDR-01/02/04). It is the AIGP heritage vision-autonomy brain (proof of concept) wrapped in a mass-manufacturable, reuse-robust airframe (DDR-05/06/07/15) running best-in-class production compute (DDR-03).
The platform's operational identity rests on four pillars from the interview:
- Runway-independent, link-independent reach. Launch from rail or RATO anywhere; navigate "the way a pilot would — look out the window and drive to the place you need to go until you see the thing you need and go to it" [16:01] (DDR-02). No airfield, no GPS, no operator joystick.
- The survivability gauntlet — and survive to come home. Carry useful payload to long range and survive laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously [18:46–19:16] (DDR-12) — and live to fly the return leg (DDR-15). Survivability is now sized for round-trip survival, not just terminal arrival.
- Reusability as the economic engine (DDR-15). "kinetics need to be reusable… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe" [20:06–20:32]. When the airframe, seeker, and computer all come home, cost-per-engagement collapses to fuel + (optional) munition. Every WILDFIRE sortie ends in recovery and re-flight.
- Cost-imposition by existing — at sortie price, not airframe price. Even when an enemy can shoot WILDFIRE down, defeating a reusable drone that costs ~$3k/sortie to operate forces the enemy's C-UAS into an unwinnable cost ratio [19:16] (DDR-16). WILDFIRE wins by making the other designer's job impossible and by being cheap to keep flying.
1.1 Operational envelope (from locked baseline §3.1, Rev B)
| Parameter | Value | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Strike radius (round-trip, incl. RTB reserve) | ~1,500–2,500 km | locked baseline Rev B [TBR by 11_propulsion] — all profiles are round-trip; recovery is the norm |
| Loiter endurance | 12–20 h | locked baseline Rev B [TBR] |
| Cruise / loiter / dash speed | 100–130 kt / 70 kt / higher (turboprop dash option) | locked baseline Rev B [TBR] |
| Service ceiling | ~6,000 m | locked baseline Rev B |
| Payload (modular; only the munition is expended) | up to 25 kg | releasable munitions (expended) / EO-IR ISR (recovered) / EW pod (recovered) / decoy (recovered) / cargo |
| MTOW | 175 kg (Rev B.1) | locked baseline Rev B [TBR by mass rollup] |
| Empty / fuel | ~80 kg / ~45 kg heavy fuel (incl. RTB reserve) | locked baseline Rev B |
| Compute | best-in-class COTS edge-AI (Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS), Faraday-shielded | locked baseline Rev B (DDR-03) |
| Launch | rail / RATO, runway-independent | locked baseline Rev B |
| Recovery | Skyhook-cable capture (baseline); parachute+airbag (alt); VTOL (trade) — airframe + seeker + compute recovered every sortie | locked baseline Rev B (DDR-15) |
| Reuse life / turnaround | ≥50 sorties [TBR]; refuel+rearm+health-check ≤30 min, small team | locked baseline Rev B (DDR-15) |
What changed in Rev B vs Rev A. The "one-way strike" framing is deleted. There is no expendable-airframe WILDFIRE. The previous radius-vs-recovery trade (where full radius required a one-way flight) is superseded: the Rev B propulsion/fuel baseline carries an explicit RTB reserve, so the 1,500–2,500 km figure is a round-trip strike radius and every profile returns. The payload envelope grew to 25 kg, MTOW to 175 kg, ceiling to 6,000 m.
1.2 Mission phase model
All profiles decompose into a common eight-phase model, ending in recovery and re-sortie. The DDRs exercised per phase are constant; the emphasis and terminal effect vary by mission. No profile terminates in self-destruction or one-way impact — the airframe always returns (DDR-15).
[P0 LAUNCH] -> [P1 CLIMB/DEPART] -> [P2 INGRESS/CRUISE] -> [P3 GAUNTLET]
-> [P4 TERMINAL ID & DECISION] -> [P5 EFFECT/RELEASE] -> [P6 EGRESS]
-> [P7 RTB + RECOVERY + TURNAROUND + RE-SORTIE]
| Phase | Dominant activity | Primary DDRs |
|---|---|---|
| P0 Launch | Rail/RATO release, runway-independent | baseline launch |
| P1 Climb/Depart | Vision-locked attitude, transition to cruise | DDR-02 |
| P2 Ingress/Cruise | Vision/scene-map nav, radios dark | DDR-01/02/04/13 |
| P3 Gauntlet | Survive laser/HPM/kinetic while preserving payload+range and surviving to return | DDR-09/10/11/12/13/15/16 |
| P4 Terminal ID & Decision | Optical target acquisition + ID + ROE check | DDR-02/18 |
| P5 Effect/Release | Strike (release munition) / ISR collect / EW emit / decoy / SEAD | DDR-13/14/16 |
| P6 Egress | Survive the return gauntlet; preserve RTB energy | DDR-12/13/15 |
| P7 RTB + Recovery + Turnaround + Re-sortie | Skyhook recovery; refuel + rearm + health-check ≤30 min; re-fly | DDR-15/19 |
2. Launch — Runway-Independent (P0)
Driver: Locked baseline mandates rail/RATO launch, no landing gear; runway-independent. Producibility doctrine (DDR-05/06/07) forbids exquisite launch infrastructure. The same site that launches WILDFIRE also recovers and re-sorties it (Section 11), so launch and recovery GSE co-locate.
2.1 Launch modes
| Mode | Description | When used | Producibility note (DDR-06/07) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pneumatic/hydraulic rail | Reusable catapult rail accelerates WILDFIRE to flying speed (~35 m/s [TBR] at 175 kg MTOW) | Garrison, fixed sites, ships-of-opportunity, prepared FOB; co-located with Skyhook for fast turnaround | Rail is reusable GSE, not flyaway cost; commodity steel/pneumatics |
| RATO (rocket-assisted takeoff) | Strap-on solid booster jettisoned after burnout (booster is the only expended launch item) | Austere/dispersed launch, no rail available, rapid surge | Booster is a commodity solid grain; same supply chain logic as the divert motor (DDR-11) |
| Zero-length canister (option) | Stored/transported/launched from a sealed tube | Distributed mass-launch, swarm salvo, allied second-source kits (DDR-20) | [TBR] — canister adds cost; only if a swarm customer funds it |
2.2 Launch CONOPS notes
- No GPS alignment required. Vision/IMU initialization completes on the rail before release; first scene fix captured at launch heading (DDR-02/04). Launch-site survey is a coarse prior, not a dependency.
- Dispersed launch and recovery by design. Because no airfield is needed, launch/recovery points are cheap, mobile, and many — enabling both the ≥1,000/day production surge (DDR-08) and the high sortie rate that reuse (DDR-15) multiplies on top of unit count.
- Launch is radios-dark capable. No uplink required between load and release; the mission is fully loaded pre-flight (waypoint corridor, target signature set, ROE/geofence, RTB recovery point + alternate). RF, if available, only adds re-tasking headroom (DDR-01).
Assumption: Rail exit speed ~35 m/s at 175 kg MTOW; booster Δv sized to clear stall + obstacle in <2 s. [TBR by 10_airframe / 11_propulsion — increased over Rev A's 30 m/s to reflect heavier MTOW.]
3. Ingress — GPS/RF-Denied Vision Navigation (P1–P2)
Driver — DDR-02 [16:01]: "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… do it the way that a pilot would. You look out the window and you… drive to the place you need to go until you see the thing you need and go to it." Driver — DDR-04 [15:54]: "completely resistant to all jamming systems, not just on the communications, but also things like navigation."
3.1 Navigation stack (operational view; design owned by 12_autonomy)
WILDFIRE flies the ingress corridor on the AIGP heritage brain, re-hosted on best-in-class production compute (DDR-03):
cameras (3–6 global-shutter wide-FOV) + EO/IR gimbal
|
v
vision_pipeline.py (heritage) -> detect/recognize scene & landmarks -> PnP 6-DoF pose
|
v (fused with dual voted MEMS IMU + baro + optical flow + optional star tracker)
scene/map matching against onboard terrain & landmark priors -> position/heading estimate
|
v
drone_mpc_foundation.py / rl_controller.py (heritage) -> guidance & control -> MAVLink bridge
- Pilotage, not GPS. WILDFIRE matches what it sees (coastlines, road/river junctions, ridgelines, built structures) to onboard priors, exactly as DDR-02 describes — it "looks out the window" and corrects course. GPS is not consumed; any receiver present is advisory-only and trivially deniable without affecting the mission (DDR-04).
- Drift management both ways. The same vision-inertial fix cadence that bounds outbound drift also navigates the return leg back to the recovery point (DDR-15). Long over-water or feature-poor legs use the optional low-SWaP star tracker and celestial/horizon cues as a coarse heading reference [TBR by autonomy].
- Radios dark throughout (DDR-01). Ingress and egress require no datalink. SDR mesh, if used, passes only opportunistic re-tasking or track-sharing (Section 5.5 swarm) and is jam-tolerant by being optional.
3.2 Ingress + return energy check (first-order, round-trip)
For a representative deep-strike profile using the Rev B baseline, all distances are round-trip with RTB reserve:
- Cruise 120 kt = 222 km/h.
- A 1,000 km round-trip strike (500 km out + 500 km back) ≈ 4.5 h of cruise, well inside the 12–20 h endurance budget — leaving margin for gauntlet maneuvering, terminal loiter, and reserve.
- The 2,000 km round-trip end of the envelope (1,000 km out + 1,000 km back) ≈ 9 h cruise, still inside endurance with reserve.
First-order range sanity (DDR-13/15): Round-trip air-distance = (endurance − reserve − terminal loiter) × cruise speed. At 120 kt and the locked 12–20 h endurance, gross cruise air-distance ≈ 2,600–4,400 km, i.e. a 1,300–2,200 km round-trip radius is consistent with returning home and holding reserve. The Rev B "1,500–2,500 km" radius figure is therefore a round-trip radius supported by the larger fuel fraction (~45 kg incl. RTB reserve). The Rev A radius-vs-recovery conflict is closed: recovery is no longer a radius penalty — it is the design point. Confirm exact reserve sizing with 11_propulsion_power. [TBR]
4. The Survivability Gauntlet (P3 outbound, P6 return) — Laser + HPM + Kinetic, Simultaneously
Driver — DDR-12 [18:46–19:16]: "it is almost impossible to build something that can stop all three of those at the same time… Now I need to make something that flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way, and somehow survives all of these systems at the same time working together. That's really really hard."
The gauntlet is the operational region — typically the last tens of kilometers to the objective and any defended belt en route — where WILDFIRE is simultaneously exposed to directed-energy, HPM, and kinetic interceptors. In Rev B the gauntlet is two-sided: WILDFIRE must survive it on ingress (P3) AND on egress (P6) to come home and be reused (DDR-15). CONOPS here defines behavior; the hardening hardware is owned by 13_survivability.
4.1 Threat-layer responses (operational behaviors)
| Threat layer | Palmer driver | WILDFIRE behavior | Owning subsystem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laser (DEW) | DDR-09 [17:55] "trip to Home Depot and $10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser" | Present ablative/reflective skin; optional slow roll/spin to distribute dwell heat so no spot reaches burn-through; minimize presented cross-section; do not loiter in a known DEW arc | Survivability, Autonomy |
| HPM / EMP | DDR-10 [18:17] "fry normal drones with high-powered microwaves… range from tens of kilometers down to simply meters" | Faraday-enclosed avionics bay + optical internal data bus already hardened; no behavioral change required — hardening shrinks effective HPM range "from tens of km to meters" so WILDFIRE is not a soft target | Survivability, Avionics |
| Kinetic (interceptor/gun) | DDR-11 [18:35] "solid rocket boosters that shove you out of the way at the last second and bring you out of the probable kill radius" | On terminal-threat detection (closure cue from vision/IMU), command lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor + high-g jink to exit the probable kill radius; resume guidance after divert | Propulsion, Autonomy, Survivability |
4.2 Gauntlet behavior logic
- Detect → classify → respond, onboard. Threat cues are processed onboard; responses fire without operator-in-the-loop and without RF (DDR-01/18-compatible: these are survival reflexes, not lethal-release decisions).
- Preserve payload + range + return energy (DDR-13/15). Every gauntlet behavior is constrained to not dump the payload, not exhaust the energy budget, and not burn the RTB reserve: roll/spin is low-rate; divert is a bounded lateral impulse, not continuous evasion. The mission must arrive with its effect intact and retain enough energy to fly home for recovery and reuse. This is the explicit "survive and carry useful payload the whole way" tension of DDR-12, extended in Rev B to "and come home" (DDR-15).
- Egress survivability (P6, new in Rev B). The return leg crosses the same defended belt. The autonomy plans egress to minimize re-exposure (different corridor, terrain masking, time-of-day), and the same skin/spin/divert reflexes protect the airframe on the way out. Survivability mass/cost is now justified twice per sortie and amortized over ≥50 sorties (DDR-15).
- Graceful degradation. Loss of one camera, one IMU (voted pair), or the comms radio does not abort — the autonomy completes on degraded sensing (12_autonomy). A breach of ROE-confidence triggers deterministic abort to a safe-recovery state (Section 6) — abort means return and land, not destroy.
4.3 The "impose cost" coupling (DDR-16) — now a sortie-cost lever
WILDFIRE does not need to be invulnerable. Per DDR-16 [19:16], its survivability transfers the design pain to the enemy: an enemy C-UAS that must defeat our laser-hardened, HPM-hardened, kinetic-dodging, reusable drone is forced to carry costlier effectors. Because WILDFIRE returns and re-flies, each engagement the enemy must win against us is priced at ~fuel + munition (~$3k/sortie), not at airframe price — the cost asymmetry Palmer demands (DDR-15/16). Section 7 develops this.
5. Mission Profiles
Five concrete profiles. Each names its customer/effect (DDR-17), gives a phase timeline through recovery and re-sortie, lists DDRs exercised, and states the reuse posture. Every profile recovers the airframe + seeker + compute; only the munition (if any) is expended (DDR-15). Timelines are design targets [TBR]; speeds/ranges per locked baseline §3.1 Rev B.
Profile A — Deep Strike (recoverable, reusable)
Customer/effect: Theater fires; hold a fixed/relocatable high-value target at extended round-trip radius without airfields, GPS, or a datalink. Releasable precision munition is the only expended item; the airframe, seeker, and compute return for re-sortie.
| Phase | Action | Duration / state | DDRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| P0 | RATO or rail launch from dispersed point | ~5 s | baseline |
| P1 | Climb, vision/IMU init, set ingress heading | ~3 min | DDR-02 |
| P2 | Vision-nav cruise ~120 kt outbound, radios dark | ~2.25 h (≈500 km out) | DDR-01/02/04/13 |
| P3 | Penetrate defended belt: skin/spin vs laser, hardened vs HPM, divert vs kinetic | minutes, as encountered | DDR-09/10/11/12/13/16 |
| P4 | Optical terminal acquisition + target ID + ROE confirm (geofence / target-signature match) | seconds–minutes | DDR-02/18 |
| P5 | Release precision glide/powered munition (only expended item); BDA pass if tasked | seconds | DDR-13/16 |
| P6 | Egress the defended belt on a de-conflicted corridor; preserve RTB reserve | minutes | DDR-12/13/15 |
| P7 | Vision-nav RTB ~500 km; Skyhook recovery; refuel + rearm + health-check ≤30 min; re-sortie | ~2.25 h + ≤30 min | DDR-15/19 |
Reuse posture: Recovered & reused (airframe + seeker + compute). Expended: the munition only. Payload: precision munition (≤25 kg class). Key trade: Rev B fuel fraction (~45 kg incl. reserve) makes a ~1,000 km round-trip strike routine; the 2,000 km round-trip end of the envelope trades terminal loiter for range [TBR by 11_propulsion]. Reuse note (DDR-15): amortizing the ≤$150k airframe over ≥50 sorties drives strike cost to ~$3k/sortie + munition — the Section 7 deterrence lever.
Profile B — ISR / Loiter (recoverable, reusable)
Customer/effect: Persistent stare over a named area of interest; deliver EO/IR track data radios-dark, recover the airframe + payload for reuse. Nothing is expended — the EO/IR gimbal is a recovered, non-consumed sensor.
| Phase | Action | Duration / state | DDRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| P0 | Rail launch (garrison/FOB) | ~5 s | baseline |
| P1 | Climb, vision/IMU init | ~3 min | DDR-02 |
| P2 | Vision-nav transit to AOI | hours (radius set by desired on-station time) | DDR-01/02/04/13 |
| P3 | Cross any defended belt with full gauntlet behavior | as encountered | DDR-09/10/11/12 |
| P4 | On-station: EO/IR gimbal collects; vision pipeline detects/IDs/tracks | continuous, hours | DDR-02 |
| P5 | Effect = ISR product: tracks held onboard; opportunistically meshed if RF safe (DDR-14) | continuous | DDR-13/14 |
| P6 | Egress; preserve RTB reserve | minutes–hours | DDR-12/15 |
| P7 | Vision-nav RTB; Skyhook recovery; download product; refuel + health-check ≤30 min; re-sortie | hours + ≤30 min | DDR-15/19 |
Reuse posture: Recovered & reused (airframe + EO/IR payload + compute). Expended: nothing. Endurance: 12–20 h favors long on-station time at the chosen radius. Reuse note (DDR-15): ISR is the canonical reuse case — same airframe flies daily; the EO/IR gimbal and compute are never consumed. With the Rev B endurance/fuel baseline there is no radius-vs-recovery penalty — return and reuse is the design point, not a trade.
Profile C — Electronic Warfare (recoverable stand-in jammer)
Customer/effect: Suppress/degrade enemy emitters (radar, C2) from a stand-in position the enemy cannot cost-effectively intercept. WILDFIRE flies radios-dark on its own nav and only then emits, then returns with the (reusable) EW pod.
| Phase | Action | Duration / state | DDRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| P0 | Rail/RATO launch | ~5 s | baseline |
| P1 | Climb, vision/IMU init | ~3 min | DDR-02 |
| P2 | Vision-nav ingress, OWN emitter OFF (find target the pilot's way, not by homing on RF) | hours | DDR-01/02/04 |
| P3 | Cross defended belt with full gauntlet behavior | as encountered | DDR-09/10/11/12 |
| P4 | Vision-confirm geographic/emitter location; ROE check before radiating | seconds–min | DDR-02/18 |
| P5 | Effect = EW emission: stand-in jamming/spoofing of named threat band | minutes–hours | DDR-13/14/16 |
| P6 | Cease emission; egress radios-dark; preserve RTB reserve | minutes | DDR-12/15 |
| P7 | Vision-nav RTB; Skyhook recovery; refuel + health-check ≤30 min; re-sortie | hours + ≤30 min | DDR-15/19 |
Reuse posture: Recovered & reused (airframe + EW pod + compute). Expended: nothing (EW pod is a recovered module). Why this matters (DDR-01/04): WILDFIRE's own navigation never depends on RF, so it can fly into the densest EW environment — including its own jamming footprint — and navigate back out to recovery. A conventional RF-nav drone cannot stand in its own jamming; WILDFIRE can, and returns. Producibility: EW pod is a payload module on the common bay — no airframe change.
Profile D — Decoy / Spoof (recoverable, reusable — signature presentation)
Customer/effect: Saturate and exhaust enemy C-UAS — present a credible high-value-target signature to draw laser/HPM/kinetic shots, soak interceptor inventory, and measure enemy defenses for the following strike wave. This is DDR-16's "impose cost" made literal — and in Rev B the decoy itself is reusable, so it soaks shots and comes home to do it again (DDR-15).
| Phase | Action | Duration / state | DDRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| P0 | Mass rail/canister launch (salvo) | ~5 s | baseline / DDR-08 |
| P1 | Climb, vision/IMU init | ~3 min | DDR-02 |
| P2 | Vision-nav along ingress corridor in formation, radios dark | hours | DDR-01/02/04 |
| P3 | Deliberately enter the gauntlet presenting enlarged RF/IR/visual signature (decoy payload); survive shots via skin/spin + HPM hardening + divert | as encountered | DDR-09/10/11/12/16 |
| P4 | (no lethal terminal) — log threat geometry, emitter cues for the strike wave | continuous | DDR-02/14 |
| P5 | Effect = inventory exhaustion + threat mapping; data meshed if RF safe | continuous | DDR-16/14 |
| P6 | Egress while continuing to soak/log; preserve RTB reserve | minutes | DDR-12/15 |
| P7 | Vision-nav RTB; Skyhook recovery; download threat map; refuel + health-check ≤30 min; re-sortie | hours + ≤30 min | DDR-15/19 |
Reuse posture: Recovered & reused (airframe + decoy/recorder module + compute). Expended: nothing — a reusable decoy is strictly superior to an expendable one: it can soak interceptors, log the threat picture, and fly the same mission again tomorrow at fuel price (DDR-15). Why WILDFIRE is a good decoy (DDR-16): because the real strike variant is genuinely hard to kill (laser+HPM+kinetic survivability), a decoy that looks identical is indistinguishable to the defender — the enemy must spend a full three-layer engagement on every contact. With reuse, blue can present that dilemma indefinitely; "their bombs are going to have to get smaller, their range is going to have to go down" [19:16] applied in reverse to their interceptor economy.
Profile E — Swarm SEAD (cooperative, open-network, recoverable)
Customer/effect: Cooperative Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses — a group of WILDFIRE (mixed strike/decoy/EW/ISR roles) cooperatively localizes and prosecutes an integrated air-defense node, sharing tracks over the open network when RF is available but completing even if it is not. All members recover and re-sortie; only strike-member munitions are expended (DDR-15).
| Phase | Action | Duration / state | DDRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| P0 | Salvo launch of mixed-role group | seconds | DDR-08 |
| P1 | Climb, vision/IMU init, formation assembly by vision | ~3 min | DDR-02 |
| P2 | Vision-nav ingress, radios dark by default; opportunistic mesh to share scene/track fixes (DDR-14) | hours | DDR-01/02/04/14 |
| P3 | Decoys lead into gauntlet to trigger/soak defenses; ISR/EW members localize emitters; all run full survivability behaviors | as encountered | DDR-09/10/11/12/16 |
| P4 | Cooperative target ID: fuse multi-aspect optical IDs; each lethal member runs its own ROE/human-on-the-loop check (Section 6) | seconds–min | DDR-02/14/18 |
| P5 | Effect = coordinated strike on the SAM/radar node (strike members release munitions); sensor-to-shooter handoff over open standard if meshed, else pre-assigned roles | seconds | DDR-13/14/16 |
| P6 | Coordinated egress; preserve RTB reserve for every member | minutes | DDR-12/15 |
| P7 | All members vision-nav RTB; Skyhook recovery (staggered); refuel + rearm + health-check ≤30 min each; re-sortie the group | hours + ≤30 min | DDR-15/19 |
Reuse posture: All members recovered & reused. Expended: strike-member munitions only. Networking (DDR-14): common track format so "every sensor is a sensor for every effector and vice versa" [17:02–17:45] — but mesh is opportunistic; loss of mesh degrades to pre-briefed role assignment, never aborts (DDR-01). Reuse note (DDR-15): the entire SEAD package returns and re-flies, so blue can re-attack the IADS at sortie price the next cycle — sustaining the pressure DDR-16 demands.
5.6 Profile comparison summary
| Profile | Payload | Expended item | Reuse posture | Radius posture (round-trip) | Lead DDRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Deep Strike | Precision munition | Munition only | Recovered & reused | Full ~1,000–2,000 km RT | 02,12,13,15,16 |
| B ISR/Loiter | EO/IR gimbal | None | Recovered & reused | Radius set by on-station time | 02,13,15 |
| C EW | EW pod | None | Recovered & reused | Stand-in, inside own jamming | 01,04,15,16 |
| D Decoy/Spoof | Decoy/recorder | None | Recovered & reused | Along strike corridor | 12,15,16,08 |
| E Swarm SEAD | Mixed | Strike munitions only | All recovered & reused | Cooperative | 14,15,16,12 |
There is no "one-way" column. Every WILDFIRE mission ends in recovery and re-sortie (DDR-15). The only thing that varies is whether a munition is expended (A, E-strike members) or not (B, C, D).
6. Bounded Autonomy — ROE & Human-on-the-Loop (DDR-18)
Driver — DDR-18 [33:01]: "I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI." The design risk is not a runaway superintelligence — it is an unconstrained, unauditable autonomous weapon. WILDFIRE's autonomy is therefore bounded, testable, and auditable, with positive human control over lethal release.
6.1 ROE architecture (operational)
| Control | Mechanism | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Geofence | Hard 3-D boundary loaded pre-flight; vision-nav refuses guidance commands outside it | Enforced onboard, no RF needed (DDR-01) |
| Target signature gate | Lethal effect armed only against pre-authorized target-signature set, vision-confirmed at P4 | "drive… until you see the thing you need" [16:01] — ID is optical, not RF |
| Human-on-the-loop | For lethal release: positive authorization within a defined window; default is hold/abort-to-recovery if authorization is absent or comms denied | See 6.2 — the one place RF adds value but does not create a critical-path dependency |
| Deterministic abort | A single deterministic abort state — fly-to-safe-area and recover (or loiter-then-RTB) — triggered by ROE-confidence breach, geofence violation, or low ID confidence | Testable, repeatable for shoot-off (DDR-19); abort = come home, not self-destruct (DDR-15) |
| Auditable log | Every nav fix, ID decision, ROE check, survivability action, and recovery event written to a tamper-evident onboard log | Enables post-mission audit and reuse health-check (Section 11) |
6.2 The human-on-the-loop vs DDR-01 reconciliation
This is the one genuine tension between DDR-18 (human positive control over lethal release) and DDR-01 (no RF on the critical path). It is resolved by fail-safe default, not fail-deadly:
- Comms available: human-on-the-loop receives the vision-confirmed target package and authorizes/withholds release within the engagement window. The preferred mode.
- Comms denied (jammed/dark): WILDFIRE does not autonomously expand its authority. It executes the pre-briefed ROE loaded before launch — for most profiles: prosecute only pre-authorized, geofenced, vision-confirmed targets; otherwise abort and return for recovery. Lethal release in the comms-denied case is permitted only within tightly pre-authorized parameters approved before launch.
- Net effect: the mission completes radios-dark (DDR-01 satisfied) but the autonomy never escalates its own lethality when unsupervised (DDR-18 satisfied). Denying comms can only ever make WILDFIRE more conservative, never less — and because the airframe is reusable, the conservative outcome is simply "bring it home unfired" (DDR-15), the cheapest possible failure mode.
Design rule: Loss of the human-on-the-loop link degrades WILDFIRE toward restraint and recovery, never toward autonomy expansion or self-destruction. "Dumb AI in the hands of evil people" is defended against by making the failure mode boring, conservative, and recoverable.
7. Deterrence, "Impose Cost" & Cost-per-Sortie Logic (DDR-15/16)
Driver — DDR-16 [19:16]: "even if I can't stop them, I'm going to take payload away. Their bombs are going to have to get smaller. Their range is going to have to go down. Now they have to get in closer, which means other weapon systems can deal with them before they even launch." Driver — DDR-15 [19:38 / 20:06–20:32]: "It's a total folly… kinetics need to be reusable… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe… If I have a reusable system, I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use."
WILDFIRE is a strike platform, but its strategic value is deterrence by cost imposition, and in Rev B that imposition is priced at cost-per-sortie, not cost-per-airframe. It works on three coupled fronts:
-
The reuse cost lever (DDR-15) — the core of Rev B. Because the airframe + seeker + compute come home every sortie, the recurring cost of putting an effect on target is fuel + (optional) munition, with the ≤$150k airframe amortized over ≥50 sorties. First-order:
cost-per-sortie ≈ $150k / 50 + fuel + munition ≈ $3k airframe-amortized + fuel + munition[TBR]. An expendable competitor pays the whole airframe cost on every shot — Palmer's "total folly." WILDFIRE imposes the same effect at a fraction of the recurring cost, which is the decisive economic asymmetry. -
Offensively (WILDFIRE attacking): A WILDFIRE that survives laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously forces the defender's C-UAS to be exquisite — they must mass directed-energy + HPM + kinetic together, "almost impossible to build" [18:46] and ruinously expensive. WILDFIRE wins by making the enemy's counter-design unaffordable while WILDFIRE itself stays cheap to operate (front 1).
-
Defensively (the mirror trap): The same survivability doctrine, when the enemy tries to copy it, runs into our layered defense (including BACKFIRE, Section 10). Even if our defense can't stop every enemy drone, it forces their payload smaller and their range shorter — pushing them into envelopes where cheaper weapons kill them before launch. The cycle is "virtuous" [19:18] precisely because both AGP platforms (WILDFIRE offense + BACKFIRE defense) are reusable, so blue can sustain the volume that makes red's attack uneconomical.
CONOPS consequence: WILDFIRE's survivability features (DDR-09/10/11/12) and its recovery system (DDR-15) are not gold-plating (DDR-17) — they are the mechanism of deterrence. Survivability buys the airframe's return (so it survives to be reused); recovery + reuse drives cost-per-sortie down; low cost-per-sortie is what makes the cost-imposition of DDR-16 credible and sustainable. This chain is the program thesis.
8. "Don't Build the Batmobile" CONOPS Audit (DDR-17)
Driver — DDR-17 [36:54]: "not building the cool thing… makes no sense because there's no customer… focus on things that are actually in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed."
Every capability claimed in this CONOPS is mapped to a named customer/mission. Nothing appears here without one.
| Capability | Named customer / mission | Profile | Kept or cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vision-only nav (out and back) | Any GPS/RF-denied user; all profiles | A–E | Keep (DDR-02) |
| Laser/HPM/kinetic survivability (round-trip) | Theater fires vs defended target; survive to RTB | A,D,E | Keep (DDR-12/15/16) |
| Recoverable, reusable strike | Theater fires at low cost-per-sortie | A | Keep (DDR-15) |
| Recoverable ISR loiter | Persistent ISR customer | B | Keep (DDR-15) |
| Stand-in EW (recoverable) | SEAD/EW customer | C,E | Keep (DDR-15) |
| Reusable decoy/spoof | C-UAS exhaustion / strike enabling | D | Keep (DDR-15/16) |
| Swarm SEAD mesh | IADS suppression | E | Keep (DDR-14) |
| Skyhook recovery + ≤30 min turnaround | Every profile (reuse economics) | A–E | Keep (DDR-15) |
| Human-on-the-loop ROE | Lawful lethal employment | all | Keep (DDR-18) |
| One-way / expendable WILDFIRE airframe | the "total folly" [20:22] — no customer wants to throw away the seeker/airframe | — | CUT (DDR-15) |
| Onboard man-rated cockpit / supersonic dash | no funded customer | — | CUT — Batmobile |
| RF-dependent terminal homing | violates DDR-01 | — | CUT |
Result: the CONOPS adds no capability without a mission, rejects the one-way airframe outright (DDR-15), and explicitly rejects RF-on-critical-path and exquisite features. Producibility (DDR-05/06/07), reusability (DDR-15), and survivability (DDR-12) beat peak performance throughout.
9. Demonstrability / Shoot-Off Readiness (DDR-15/19)
Driver — DDR-19 [21:40]: open competitions where companies "compete… at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win."
Each profile is written to be instrumented and demonstrable at a live shoot-off — and the reuse cycle is itself a scored demonstration (DDR-15):
| Profile | Demonstrable success criterion (target, [TBR]) | Instrumentation |
|---|---|---|
| A Deep Strike | Vision-nav to a designated target at round-trip range, GPS off, datalink off; terminal optical ID within X m CEP; recover the airframe | Onboard log + range tracking + recovery confirmation |
| B ISR/Loiter | Recover airframe+payload after Y h on-station; deliver track product radios-dark | EO/IR product + recovery |
| C EW | Navigate into a live jamming environment without nav loss; emit on cue; navigate back out and recover | Spectrum monitor + recovery |
| D Decoy | Present credible signature; survive N simulated DEW/kinetic passes; recover and re-fly | Threat emulator scoring + recovery |
| E Swarm | Complete cooperative SEAD with mesh and with mesh denied; recover all members | Multi-aircraft telemetry + recovery |
| Reuse / Turnaround (all) | Skyhook-recover, refuel + rearm + health-check, and re-launch the same airframe in ≤30 min; demonstrate ≥N consecutive sorties on one airframe toward the ≥50-sortie reuse life | Turnaround stopwatch + health-monitoring log + airframe serial tracking |
| ROE (all) | Demonstrate deterministic abort + comms-denied restraint (abort = recover, not destroy) | Audit log replay |
These criteria are the contract between CONOPS and 17_test_verification_validation. The reuse/turnaround line is the DDR-15 demonstration the program owner specifically calls out as "the final thing at the top of my pinnacle" [19:30].
10. BACKFIRE (AGP-2) Defensive CONOPS — Summary
Driver — DDR-15 [19:32–20:46]: "kinetics need to be reusable… scaling down the fighter interceptor model… very very fast… turbine powered… maybe rocket powered… destroy things… then come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused."
BACKFIRE is the blue-side counterpart that closes the deterrence loop of Section 7. Full design is owned by 20_variant_backfire_interceptor; the operational concept:
| Phase | Action | DDRs |
|---|---|---|
| Alert/Cue | Ingests a track from any networked sensor via the open standard — "every sensor a sensor for every effector" [17:02] | DDR-14 |
| Launch | Rail-launch or VTOL; rapid scramble for a fast turbine intercept | DDR-15 |
| Intercept | High-subsonic (M0.85), rocket-boost dash to low-supersonic; shared vision-nav core + passive IR / active RF terminal seeker; engage in ~15–25 km / to ~6 km envelope [TBR] | DDR-02/14/15 |
| Kill | Selectable: proximity continuous-rod/frag (replaceable) or hit-to-kill (no warhead, fully reusable) | DDR-15 |
| Recover | Return → parachute/skid (or VTOL) recovery; airframe + seeker + compute reused; cost-per-engagement = fuel (+ optional warhead) | DDR-15 |
Why BACKFIRE completes WILDFIRE's logic: WILDFIRE forces the enemy's attack drones to survive a layered defense (DDR-16). BACKFIRE is the affordable, reusable kinetic layer of that defense — "the final thing at the top of my pinnacle" [19:30]. Because both platforms are reusable, blue can sustain the offensive and defensive volume that makes the enemy's attack uneconomical, exactly as DDR-15/16 demand. The two platforms share the autonomy core, the manufacturing doctrine, the open network, and the reusability doctrine.
BACKFIRE per-shot cost target: ≪ $20k (fuel + optional warhead, amortized airframe) (locked baseline §3.2). This — like WILDFIRE's ~$3k/sortie — is the number that makes layered defense affordable and therefore makes the deterrence of Section 7 credible.
11. The Reuse Cycle — Recovery, Turnaround & Re-Sortie (P7, DDR-15)
Driver — DDR-15 [20:25–20:44]: "they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe… If I have a reusable system, I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use."
This is the phase that distinguishes WILDFIRE from the "total folly" of expendable airframes. Every profile in Section 5 ends here. The recovery hardware and reuse-life engineering are owned by 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle; this section defines the operational cycle and its timeline.
11.1 Recovery modes (runway-independent, gear-deleted)
| Mode | Description | When used | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skyhook-cable capture (baseline) | WILDFIRE vision-navigates to a recovery point and flies into a vertical capture cable; a wingtip/nose hook arrests it; the airframe is lowered, inspected, and re-cradled | Garrison, FOB, ship-of-opportunity — co-located with the launch rail | Reusable GSE; no runway, no gear (DDR-05/06/07); preserves airframe for reuse |
| Parachute + airbag (alt) | Deploy recovery chute + airbag at a designated zone; soft vertical landing | Austere sites without Skyhook; emergency abort-to-recover | Chute/airbag are small, low-cost, partly reusable; protects seeker/compute |
| VTOL (trade, [TBR]) | Lift fans / tail-sitter recovery | If a customer funds the SWaP/cost; not baseline | Carried as a trade, not Batmobile-locked (DDR-17) |
All three are runway-independent and gear-deleted, consistent with the locked baseline, and all return the airframe + seeker + compute intact for reuse.
11.2 Turnaround timeline — target ≤30 min, small team (DDR-15)
First-order turnaround budget for a 2–3 person ground team at a recovery point [TBR by 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle]:
| Step | Action | Target time | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | Skyhook capture, lower to cradle | — | end of P7 flight |
| T+0 → +5 min | Safe/inert: confirm munition status (released or safed), shut down, cool-down begin | ~5 min | safety gate before handling |
| T+3 → +12 min | Refuel heavy fuel (~45 kg) via quick-connect; common-fuel mandate eases logistics | ~9 min (overlaps cool-down) | JP-8/Jet-A; single fill point |
| T+5 → +15 min | Rearm: snap in a fresh munition / swap payload module on the common bay (only the munition was expended) | ~10 min | modular bay, no airframe change |
| T+5 → +20 min | Health-check: download tamper-evident log; automated airframe + seeker + compute BIT; visual skin/structure inspection (reuse-life tracking) | ~15 min (overlaps) | feeds the ≥50-sortie reuse-life qualification |
| T+20 → +28 min | Re-mission load: new waypoint corridor, target signature set, ROE/geofence, recovery point | ~8 min | radios-dark loadable |
| T+28 → +30 min | Re-launch on rail/RATO | ~2 min | back into P0 |
| Total | Recovery → re-sortie | ≤30 min | parallelized steps; small team |
Reuse cadence: A ≤30 min turnaround means a single airframe can fly multiple sorties per day, and over a ≥50-sortie reuse life delivers the effect of dozens of expendable units from one built airframe. This is how reuse (DDR-15) multiplies the ≥1,000/day production surge (DDR-08): effective fleet sorties = units built × sorties-per-unit.
11.3 Reuse-life & health management (DDR-15/19)
- ≥50-sortie reuse life [TBR]: the airframe is structurally sized (10_airframe) and the propulsion serviced (11_propulsion) for repeated launch-recovery cycles, not a single flight. Robust DFM (rivets/welds/structural adhesive, generous tolerances, DDR-07) is also reuse-robust.
- Health-monitoring for reuse qualification: each sortie writes a structural/thermal/propulsion health record; cumulative-cycle limits gate re-flight. A unit nearing reuse-life limit is rotated to lower-stress profiles (B/C) before retirement/overhaul.
- Seeker + compute are never expended: the EO/IR seeker, vision cameras, and Thor-class compute return every sortie — "I'm not throwing away my seeker" [20:30]. Only the munition (Profiles A and E-strike) is consumed.
11.4 What this does to the economics (ties to Section 7)
cost-per-sortie ≈ (≤$150k airframe ÷ ≥50 sorties) + fuel (~45 kg JP-8) + munition (profile-dependent) ≈ ~$3k airframe-amortized + fuel + munition [TBR]. Versus an expendable airframe that pays the full ~$150k every shot, WILDFIRE imposes the same effect at recurring cost an order of magnitude lower — the decisive lever of DDR-15/16 and the reason there is no one-way WILDFIRE profile.
12. Open Issues / [TBR]
- [TBR-CONOPS-1] Round-trip radius vs endurance/reserve: confirm that 1,500–2,500 km round-trip radius is supported by the Rev B ~45 kg fuel fraction with adequate RTB reserve and terminal loiter. Owned by 11_propulsion_power. (Rev A's radius-vs-recovery conflict is closed by the larger fuel fraction; this TBR now confirms reserve sizing, not feasibility of recovery.)
- [TBR-CONOPS-2] Rail exit speed (~35 m/s at 175 kg MTOW) and RATO Δv are placeholders; confirm with 10_airframe and 11_propulsion.
- [TBR-CONOPS-3] Vision-nav drift bound over feature-poor / over-water legs on both the outbound and return legs (does the optional star tracker earn its SWaP?). Owned by 12_autonomy.
- [TBR-CONOPS-4] Comms-denied lethal-release ROE parameters (which target signatures + geofences are pre-authorizable) require legal/operational sign-off — the DDR-18 crux; must be locked before any shoot-off (DDR-19).
- [TBR-CONOPS-5] Decoy signature-augmentation: how close must the (reusable) decoy's signature match the strike variant to be indistinguishable to a three-layer defender? Owned by 13_survivability + 14_payload.
- [TBR-CONOPS-6] Swarm mesh degradation: validate that loss of mesh degrades gracefully to pre-briefed roles without coordination collapse, including coordinated/staggered recovery. Owned by 15_comms + 12_autonomy.
- [TBR-CONOPS-7] Turnaround timeline (≤30 min, small team) and reuse-life (≥50 sorties) are targets; confirm parallelized step durations, BIT coverage, and cumulative-cycle limits with 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle and 17_test.
- [TBR-CONOPS-8] Recovery-mode selection per operating site (Skyhook vs parachute+airbag; VTOL trade) and recovery-point survivability (recovery point must not become a targetable single node). Owned by 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.
Budget contribution
This is a CONOPS document — it allocates no dedicated hardware, mass, power, or cost of its own. All physical contributions are owned by the subsystem documents the profiles exercise (autonomy, propulsion, survivability, payload, comms, recovery/reuse). Reported as zero/N-A to avoid double-counting in the integration rollup.
- Mass: 0 kg (CONOPS allocates no hardware; all mass owned by subsystem docs). The envelope this CONOPS designs to is the locked Rev B 175 kg MTOW / 25 kg modular payload, owned by 03_system_specification and 14_payload_effects; recovery-system mass is owned by 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W (no CONOPS-specific electrical load; autonomy/compute and payload loads are owned by 12_autonomy and 14_payload).
- Unit cost (volume): $0 (no CONOPS-specific BOM; the ≤$150k flyaway target, the ~$3k/sortie + fuel + munition cost-per-sortie target, and the BACKFIRE ≪$20k/shot target are constraints this CONOPS designs to, owned by 16_manufacturing, 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle, and 20_backfire).
- Reuse impact: This CONOPS is the operational definition of reusability (DDR-15). It establishes that every WILDFIRE mission ends in recovery + re-sortie (only munitions expended), specifies the Skyhook/parachute recovery modes, the ≤30 min turnaround timeline (Section 11.2), and the ≥50-sortie reuse-life management concept (Section 11.3), and ties them to the ~$3k/sortie cost-per-sortie economics (Sections 7 & 11.4). It imposes no reuse-hardware mass/cost itself (owned by 18), but it is the document that requires recovery hardware to exist and bounds its turnaround/lifecycle targets. No one-way airframe is permitted (DDR-15, Section 8 audit).
- Assumptions / [TBR]:
- All distances are round-trip with RTB reserve; mission timelines are design targets at locked-baseline speeds (100–130 kt cruise / 70 kt loiter). [TBR-CONOPS-1] flags reserve sizing for 11_propulsion to confirm.
- Profiles assume the locked Rev B ≤25 kg modular payload and the locked survivability suite (DDR-09/10/11/12) sized for round-trip survival, as designed by their owning subsystems; this doc does not re-derive them.
- The ≤30 min turnaround / ≥50-sortie reuse life are targets pending 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle and 17_test [TBR-CONOPS-7].
- Human-on-the-loop ROE (DDR-18) assumes a defined engagement window and pre-authorized comms-denied parameters [TBR-CONOPS-4]; no RF capability is assumed on the critical path (DDR-01). Abort defaults to recover, never self-destruct.
§ 05Airframe & Structures
STRUCT▾
Airframe & Structures
STRUCTDocument: 10_airframe_structures.md
Platform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 (hero platform) — recoverable & reusable autonomous multirole combat UAS
Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets or first-order estimates. Unverified values carry [TBR] (to-be-resolved by analysis) or [TBD]. This is a concept study, not a frozen design.
Maps to baseline: §3.1 of 00_seed_design_brief.md (Rev B.1) — MTOW 175 kg (385 lb), empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, structure ~52 kg, mid-wing / V-tail / pusher / no landing gear, rail/RATO launch + Skyhook-cable recovery (parachute+airbag alt), reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR], turnaround ≤ 30 min, < 120 structural parts.
Rev B.1 closure note (supersedes Rev B of this doc; authoritative — overrides all earlier 150 kg numbers in this file): MTOW is re-baselined 150 → 175 kg (385 lb) as signed growth per the integration's own recommendation, which RESOLVES integration finding F-1 / risk R-01 (mass overrun). The reconciled full-up strike config ≈ 174.5 kg, which now CLOSES within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin, carrying the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor restored. Empty-equipped is now ~104.5 kg (not the old ~80 kg target); the structural share owned here remains ~52 kg. All load cases, masses, and margins below are re-stated at 175 kg. This is a CONCEPT STUDY; the reuse and recovery risks (R-03 Skyhook scaling, R-04 ≥50-sortie life) remain managed, not-yet-verified — they are not claimed solved.
Rev B framing note (carried forward): WILDFIRE is NOT a one-way airframe. The airframe, seeker, and compute come home every sortie to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition is expended. Palmer is explicit that the throwaway model is "the total folly" [19:38–19:39] and that "I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [20:31–20:32]. The structure is therefore sized for fatigue life and recovery loads, not a single use.
0. Design Drivers Satisfied (traceability)
| DDR | Verbatim Palmer Luckey driver (timestamp) | What this document does about it |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-05 | "the most important thing… is to build weapons that we can actually manufacture… valuing mass producibility in a very serious way." [09:11 / 21:55] | DFM is the #1 KPP for the structure. Material and joining choices are selected by producibility first, performance second. |
| DDR-06 | "demonstrate it being made in a Ford or GM or John Deere or Caterpillar factory… train them how to make it in 1 week, and missiles start coming off the line." [21:55–23:31] | Bill-of-process restricted to stamping, roll-forming, press-braking, robotic MIG welding, riveting, adhesive bonding — all native to a car / ag-implement plant. < 120 structural parts; line-trainable in ≤ 1 week. |
| DDR-07 | "the radius that you could press with a single stage bench into a piece of steel… heavier planes, less performance, but… rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing." [10:19–11:06] | Single-stage press radii, standard heat-treat, generous tolerances, rivets + welds + structural adhesive. We explicitly accept the weight penalty documented in §8 — and note that the same robust, forgiving sections are exactly what a reusable airframe wants for fatigue life. |
| DDR-09 | "trip to Home Depot and $10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser." [17:55–18:17] | Steel skin + commodity ablative topcoat doubles as the anti-laser layer (interface to 13_survivability_ew_hardening.md). The airframe must survive the threat and still come home (reuse). |
| DDR-13 | "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way." [19:06] | Structure sized to carry the full 25 kg modular payload + ~45 kg fuel (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency) to terminal phase and back; mass disciplined to ~52 kg structural so payload/fuel fraction survives over the full out-and-return profile at 175 kg MTOW. |
| DDR-15 | "kinetics need to be reusable… come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused… I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [19:32–20:46] | PRIMARY KPP. Structure carries dedicated recovery load paths (Skyhook hook-capture point or parachute+airbag attach), is sized for fatigue life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR], and is built for ≤ 30 min turnaround (quick-swap modules, no per-sortie rework). |
| DDR-17 | "not building the cool thing… focus on things that are actually in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed." [36:54–37:41] | No autoclave CFRP, no titanium, no machined monocoque, no retractable gear. Every part traces to a load path, a recovery function, or a mission. "Don't build the Batmobile." |
Secondary interfaces: DDR-10 (Faraday/EMI — skin grounding and bay bonding, §9), DDR-11 (divert-motor hardpoint reaction loads, §7.6), DDR-12 (multi-threat survivability while holding range+payload+RTB within MTOW — structural contribution, §9 / §6), DDR-19 (instrumented shoot-off and reuse/turnaround demo readiness — weld/rivet fatigue coupon program, §10).
1. Design Philosophy — "the World-War-II airplane, not the World-War-I airplane"
Palmer's structural thesis is explicit and is the governing constraint for this document:
"Before you had a lot of handcrafting, hand-gluing, laminating, stretching, fitting. Everything after that, heavier planes, less performance, but it was just bam bam bam, rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing." — [10:51–11:06]
We design WILDFIRE as the post-Pearl-Harbor airplane: a steel-intensive, weld-and-rivet semi-monocoque that a Ford, GM, John Deere, or Caterpillar plant can build with the tooling already bolted to its floor. We deliberately give up the ~30–40 % empty-mass saving an autoclave-CFRP/aluminum exquisite design would yield, and we buy it back with cheap heavy fuel and a bigger engine — because the line-throughput KPP (≥ 1,000/day, DDR-08) dominates and because the robust, forgiving steel sections are precisely what a reusable, ≥ 50-sortie airframe wants for fatigue durability. The signed MTOW growth to 175 kg (Rev B.1) is the explicit acceptance of this trade at the system level: rather than mass-optimize the structure away from the producible/durable point, the program bought the extra gross weight (and the propulsion uprate to ~35 hp that flies it) and kept the steel doctrine intact.
Two governing realities for this structure (both elevated in Rev B): 1. Producibility (DDR-05/06/07): the airframe must fall off an automotive/ag line at rate. 2. Reusability (DDR-15): the airframe must survive launch → mission → threat exposure → recovery, and do it ≥ 50 times [TBR] with ≤ 30 min turnaround between sorties. These two pull in the same direction — both reward thick, robust, low-stress, generously-toleranced steel structure — which is why WILDFIRE does not have to choose between them.
Hard exclusions (DDR-17 / brief §6): - No autoclave or out-of-autoclave prepreg CFRP in primary structure. - No titanium, no machined billet primary structure, no investment castings on the critical path. - No multi-stage deep-draw stampings, no chemical milling, no bonded honeycomb sandwich requiring NDI per part. - No retractable landing gear, no actuated leading-edge devices — high part-count, high-tolerance items deleted. (Runway-independent launch & recovery makes gear unnecessary — DDR-15.)
Everything that survives this filter is a commodity manufacturing primitive.
2. Material Selection
2.1 Selection logic
Material is chosen by bill-of-process compatibility first (DDR-06), then by cost, then by the survivability dividend (DDR-09/10), then by fatigue/reuse durability (DDR-15), and only then by specific strength.
| Candidate | Verdict | Rationale (DDR) |
|---|---|---|
| Hot-dip galvanized / electrogalvanized low-carbon steel sheet (e.g. AISI 1008–1018, HSLA 50) | PRIMARY skin + frames | Native to every automotive press shop; weldable (MIG), rivetable, bondable; high thermal mass + high melt point = anti-laser dividend (DDR-09); conductive = EMI skin (DDR-10); galvanizing + low operating stress = excellent corrosion + fatigue durability for a reused airframe (DDR-15). Cheap (~$0.9–1.3/kg). |
| Cold-rolled HSLA strip (press-braked longerons/spars) | PRIMARY spars/longerons | Single-stage press-brake forming, generous radii (DDR-07). Higher yield than mild steel for the spar caps; runs at low fraction of yield → high cycle life (DDR-15). |
| Glass-fiber / vinyl-ester or polyester composite (chopped + woven, RTM or hand-layup-tolerant) | SECONDARY: radome nose, antenna windows, wingtips, fairings | RF/EO-transparent where the metal skin would blind sensors (DDR-02). Ag-implement plants already mold glass panels. Commodity resin. Quick-swap / replaceable on the line if a recovery scuffs a fairing (reuse maintainability). |
| Basalt-fiber composite | OPTION for nose/leading edges | Higher temp tolerance and ablative behavior than E-glass at similar cost; allied-sourceable (DDR-20). Drop-in for glass in the RTM tool. |
| Aluminum sheet (2024/6061) | REJECTED for primary | Saves mass but: lower melt point (laser-vulnerable, anti-DDR-09); needs riveting discipline + corrosion control; fatigue-notch-sensitive (no true endurance limit) — a liability for a ≥ 50-sortie reused airframe; and it is not the commodity a steel-stamping plant is tooled for. Allowed only for non-structural brackets if it reduces cost. |
| CFRP prepreg / Ti / honeycomb | REJECTED | DDR-17 / brief §6. Exquisite, autoclave/NDI-bound, low-rate; impact/recovery damage requires per-event NDI — incompatible with ≤ 30 min turnaround. |
Why steel and not aluminum (the counterintuitive call): in a conventional UAV, aluminum wins on specific strength. Here, steel wins on system terms — and the reusability mandate makes the case stronger, not weaker: steel is the material the target factories already stamp by the coil-ton; it welds with the same robotic MIG cells that weld truck frames; it gives a free survivability layer (its own ablative/reflective laser shield and Faraday shell); and a galvanized steel structure running at low stress has a true fatigue endurance limit and shrugs off the bump-and-scuff of repeated Skyhook captures — exactly what a reused airframe needs. This is "$10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser" [17:55–18:17] folded into the primary structure at zero added part count, on a platform that then comes home to do it again.
2.2 Gauge schedule (first-order, 175 kg MTOW airframe)
Single-stage press-brake / stamping gauges, all from standard coil stock. Gauges re-checked against the heavier 175 kg loads (§7) — the spar-cap section is the sizing-sensitive item and is retained at the up-gauged value (the heavier MTOW consumes the fatigue-margin headroom but the section still closes static with positive MS, see §7.2):
| Item | Material | Gauge | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wing/tail skin | Galv. steel sheet | 0.7 mm (≈22 ga) | Stressed skin, spot/seam-weldable |
| Fuselage skin | Galv. steel sheet | 0.9 mm (≈20 ga) | Carries pressure/handling + Faraday bond |
| Spar caps / main spar web | HSLA strip | 1.8–2.5 mm | Press-braked C/Z section (sized for 175 kg loads + fatigue margin; cap retained at 2.5 mm × 120 mm — see §7.2) |
| Frames / ribs | Mild/HSLA sheet | 0.9–1.2 mm | Stamped, flanged, lightening-holed |
| Hardpoint / launch / recovery fittings | HSLA or mild plate | 3–5 mm | Local doublers, welded; Skyhook hook & chute-attach fittings at upper end |
3. Structural Architecture
3.1 Configuration recap (from locked baseline §3.1, Rev B.1)
Mid-wing, V-tail, pusher prop, no landing gear. Runway-independent launch (rail / RATO) and recovery (Skyhook-cable capture; parachute + airbag alternate). The configuration itself is a DFM choice — deleting the gear removes the single highest-tolerance, highest-part-count, highest-actuation subsystem on a conventional UAV (DDR-17) — and a reuse choice: gear is the classic hard-landing damage source; a Skyhook/chute recovery has no gear to bend, fold, or re-rig between the ≥ 50 sorties (DDR-15).
3.2 Major assemblies (6 primary modules)
The airframe is decomposed into field-separable modules joined at a small number of bolted/pinned interfaces. This is what lets distributed/allied lines (DDR-06/20) build modules in parallel, mate them at final assembly — and lets a 2-person turnaround team swap a scuffed wing or a payload module in minutes between sorties (DDR-15).
| # | Module | Build primitive | Joining within module |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modular nose / payload bay | Glass/basalt radome shell over a stamped-steel ring frame | Bolted ring to fuselage (quick-swap, DDR-13/14/15) |
| 2 | Forward fuselage (avionics Faraday bay — houses reusable seeker + compute) | Press-braked steel keel + stamped frames + welded skin | Robotic MIG + rivet |
| 3 | Center fuselage / wing carry-through (fuel + main spar box + launch/recovery reaction) | Welded steel torque box | MIG weld (primary load path) |
| 4 | Aft fuselage / engine & V-tail mount | Welded steel truss-backed shell | MIG weld + bolted firewall |
| 5 | Wing pair (L/R) — includes Skyhook wingtip capture reinforcement | Stamped ribs + press-braked spar + seam-welded skin | Seam-weld + adhesive + rivet |
| 6 | V-tail pair | Stamped ribs + press-braked spar + seam-welded skin | Seam-weld + adhesive + rivet |
3.3 Wing
- Planform / box: single full-span main spar (press-braked HSLA C-channel cap + sheet web) passing through a welded carry-through box in the center fuselage; secondary rear spar/auxiliary spar carries the control-surface hinge loads. Baseline wing area ~2.4 m² (AR ≈ 9, span ≈ 4.65 m) [TBR from
11_propulsion_power.mdaero — note wing-loading rises to ~73 kg·m⁻² at 175 kg; aero may grow area to hold the loiter/cruise envelope, which feeds back into §6 wing mass]. - Ribs: stamped, flanged, lightening-holed steel — one stamping die produces the rib family with cutouts. Generous bend radii (≥ 2× sheet thickness) per DDR-07.
- Skin: 0.7 mm galvanized steel, stressed (working) skin, seam/spot-welded to ribs and spar flanges, structural adhesive at the skin-to-cap interface for fatigue/fretting and to seal against the elements. This is the "rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing" doctrine [10:59–11:06] applied verbatim — and the bonded faying surface is a deliberate fatigue-life measure for the reused airframe (adhesive reduces rivet-hole stress concentration and fretting).
- Skyhook capture reinforcement (DDR-15): the wing carries a hardened cable-capture/hook point near the wingtip (the Skyhook engagement region). A press-braked steel capture rib + leading-edge doubler distributes the snatch tension (§7.5) inboard along the spar rather than into the skin. Designed for ≥ 50 captures with inspect-only (no replace) intent [TBR — note: Skyhook is scaled ~5× beyond fielded ScanEagle heritage; see risk R-03, recovery method not yet down-selected].
- No high-lift devices. Plain elevon/aileron control surfaces only (low part count). Launch is rail/RATO so no flap-down field-takeoff requirement.
3.4 V-tail
- V-tail (not conventional empennage) chosen for part-count reduction: two identical ruddervator surfaces and two identical fin structures instead of three dissimilar surfaces. Left/right symmetry means one stamping die set serves both sides and both ship-sets — serving DDR-06 line-training simplicity.
- Built as a stamped-rib / press-braked-spar / welded-skin micro-wing, identical process to the main wing.
- Mounted to the aft-fuselage welded structure on a single bolted root fitting per side (field-separable for repair/reuse).
3.5 Fuselage
- Semi-monocoque: press-braked steel keel beam runs the length of the fuselage as the primary bending member; stamped ring frames; 0.9 mm welded steel skin works in shear.
- Center section is a welded steel torque box that simultaneously is the wing carry-through, the fuel-tank surround (now sized for the ~45 kg fuel load incl. the protected ~4 kg RTB reserve), the rail/launch reaction structure, and the primary recovery-load reaction structure (parachute riser hardpoint / Skyhook load feed-in) — one welded assembly doing four jobs (DDR-17: no part exists without a job).
- Pusher engine hangs off the aft-fuselage on a bolted firewall + welded truss backing; this localizes engine vibration/thrust loads, isolates the (hot) engine bay from the composite radome, and keeps the prop clear of the wingtip Skyhook capture path (pusher config is recovery-friendly — no nose prop to foul the cable). Note the engine truss is sized for the uprated ~35 hp (~32–38 hp band) heavy-fuel engine that flies the 175 kg MTOW; the engine itself is ~17 kg dry, charged to propulsion (FIX F-4).
3.6 Modular nose & payload bay
- Glass/basalt RF-/EO-transparent radome for the nose (the reusable EO/IR seeker looks through it, DDR-02) bolted to a stamped-steel ring frame. The seeker is not expended — it is protected behind the radome and returns every sortie (DDR-15).
- Payload bay is a steel box within the forward/center fuselage with a single bolted interface ring + blind-mate connector plate so the expendable munition module, or the non-expended EO-IR ISR / EW / decoy / cargo modules, swap without re-rigging (DDR-13/14). The bay reacts the full 25 kg payload (restored by the 175 kg re-baseline) inertial loads directly into the keel beam. This is also the rearm interface for ≤ 30 min turnaround (DDR-15): the only routinely-expended item, the munition, drops into this bay.
4. Recovery Load Paths & Reuse Architecture (DDR-15 — PRIMARY)
This section is the structural embodiment of the reusability KPP. The airframe must be captured, brought to rest, and returned to flyable state ≥ 50 times [TBR]. The recovery method is not yet down-selected (risk R-03); both Skyhook and parachute+airbag load paths are carried in structure.
4.1 Primary recovery method — Skyhook-style cable capture
Concept. The UAV is recovered with no landing gear and no runway by flying into a vertically-suspended capture cable (extended from a boom on a ground vehicle, ship rail, or trailer). A hardened hook/capture point near the wingtip engages the cable; the cable's elastic give-back plus a boom/bungee arrestor decelerates the aircraft to rest. (This is the same operating principle as the fielded ScanEagle/Skyhook system — but a ~175 kg airframe is ~5× the ~22 kg ScanEagle heritage mass; this scaling is the open risk R-03 and is NOT yet validated [TBR].)
Structural provisions owned here: - Wingtip capture fitting: a welded HSLA capture lug + leading-edge capture rib, tied into the main spar so the cable tension reacts as spar tension/bending, not skin tearing. - Span-distribution doublers: the snatch load is fed inboard along the spar cap to the carry-through box; local skin doublers prevent buckling at the capture region. - Designed for ≥ 50 captures, inspect-only. Capture region is a defined inspection zone (visual + tap-test, no per-event NDI) on the turnaround checklist (DDR-15/19).
Why wingtip capture suits this airframe: pusher prop is clear of the capture path; the V-tail is clear; and the wing spar is already the strongest member, so the recovery load shares the existing primary load path rather than demanding a bespoke structure (DDR-17 — no Batmobile recovery rig).
4.2 Alternate recovery method — parachute + airbag
For sites without a Skyhook rig, or as a contingency abort recovery: - Parachute riser hardpoint on the upper longeron of the center torque box, sized for chute opening-shock + steady descent (§7.5). A single welded HSLA bridle fitting feeds the riser load into the carry-through box. (Note: chute/airbag sizing scales with the heavier 175 kg recovery weight; re-checked in §7.5.) - Airbag / crushable belly pad under the center fuselage absorbs the touchdown stroke; the airbag attach hardpoints are local welded fittings. - Trade vs Skyhook: parachute+airbag is simpler infrastructure (no boom vehicle) but has a larger landing footprint, a wind-drift dispersion, and consumes/repacks a chute each sortie (a small per-sortie consumable, vs the Skyhook's zero-consumable capture). Both are carried; Skyhook is the candidate primary for the ≤ 30 min, zero-footprint, ship/vehicle-compatible turnaround — pending the R-03 down-select. VTOL recovery is noted as a trade in the brief but is rejected here on DDR-17 grounds (lift rotors/tilt mechanisms are exactly the high-part-count, high-mass Batmobile content the program excludes).
4.3 Turnaround & reuse maintainability (≤ 30 min, DDR-15)
The structure is explicitly designed so a small team can return the airframe to flyable state fast:
- Quick-swap bolted modules (nose/payload ring, wing roots, tail roots) → field-replace a scuffed surface instead of repairing it.
- Munition is the only routinely-expended item; rearm = drop a new munition into the bolted bay (blind-mate connector).
- Defined turnaround inspection zones (capture region, belly pad, engine firewall, spar caps) on a checklist — visual/tap-test only, no per-sortie NDI, enabled by the forgiving steel sections.
- Fuel: common heavy fuel (JP-8/Jet-A) gravity/pressure fill into the center-box tank surround; the ~4 kg RTB reserve is a fixed hold-back at the fuel-system level (protected regardless of mission fuel state — interface to 11_propulsion_power.md).
4.4 Health monitoring for reuse qualification
Embedded, low-SWaP structural cues (peak-strain witness gauges at the spar root + capture fitting; cycle counter tied to the autonomy log) flag when an airframe approaches its qualified life or exceeds a load threshold, so a unit is retired/depot-inspected on data, not guesswork (DDR-15/18/19). The ≥ 50-sortie life itself is not yet verified — engine/structural life vs engine-hour math is open risk R-04 [TBR]. Detail in 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md.
5. Joining & Bill-of-Process (DDR-06/07)
The entire airframe is joinable with four processes, all present on a truck-frame or combine line:
| Process | Where used | Why (DDR) |
|---|---|---|
| Robotic MIG welding | Primary load paths: wing carry-through box, keel beam, engine truss, hardpoints, recovery fittings | Same cells that weld vehicle frames. Palmer: "weld over the whole thing"; WWII-tank weld-quality tolerance explicitly acceptable [11:06–11:18]. |
| Riveting (blind + solid) | Skin-to-frame, skin-to-rib, fatigue-critical splices | "rivet rivet rivet" [11:02]. Cheap, inspectable, no NDI per joint. |
| Structural adhesive (commodity 2-part epoxy / MMA) | Skin-to-spar-cap, faying surfaces, composite-to-metal nose joint | "crappy glue" [11:04]. Spreads load, damps, seals, reduces rivet-hole fatigue concentration — a reuse-life lever (DDR-15). |
| Bolting / pinning | The module-to-module interfaces, payload ring, engine firewall, tail roots | Field-separability, repair, payload swap, fast turnaround (DDR-15). |
Spot/seam resistance welding of the thin skins is a fifth, optional primitive (also native to auto body lines) and is the preferred high-rate method for skin-to-rib once the line is at surge rate.
Tolerances: deliberately generous — toleranced to automotive body-in-white class, not aerospace class. Per DDR-07, single-stage press radii (≥ 2t bend radius) are mandated so no part requires a progressive/transfer die or multi-hit forming.
Part-count gate (DDR-06: < 120 structural parts). First-order rollup below; full BOM in 30_bill_of_materials.md. The MTOW growth to 175 kg is absorbed in gauge/section (the spar cap and carry-through welds carry more load) not in added part types — the part roster is unchanged by the re-baseline.
| Module | Distinct structural part types | Total structural parts (per ship) |
|---|---|---|
| Wing pair (incl. Skyhook capture rib/lug) | spar(1), ribs(~9/side family), skins(2/side), root fitting(1), capture fitting(1/side) | ~32 |
| V-tail pair | spar, ribs(~4/side), skins, root fitting | ~16 |
| Fwd + center fuselage | keel, frames(~7), skins, carry-through box, payload ring, chute riser fitting | ~26 |
| Aft fuselage + engine mount | frames(~4), skins, firewall, truss, tail mounts | ~16 |
| Nose radome + ring | shell, ring frame, doublers | ~6 |
| Recovery hardware fittings (Skyhook lug doublers, airbag attach, bridle) | local plate fittings | ~8 |
| Fasteners-as-types / brackets | hardpoints, divert-motor fitting, misc. | ~12 |
| Total | ~116 structural part types — meets < 120 gate [TBR] at detailed design |
The < 120 count is the structural part roster (excludes consumable rivets, propulsion, avionics, the chute/airbag soft goods). Recovery provisions added ~20 part types vs the one-way Rev A baseline; the V-tail and L/R symmetry remain the count-reduction levers that keep it under the (relaxed-from-100) gate.
6. First-Order Empty-Structural-Mass Breakdown (target ~52 kg)
Scope note: this document owns the empty structural mass (~52 kg), a subset of the ~104.5 kg empty-equipped mass (the balance — propulsion dry ~26 kg, electrical ~7.2 kg, autonomy ~3.4 kg, survivability ~9.3 kg incl. the divert/dodge motor charged ONCE, comms ~0.9 kg, CPI ~3.2 kg, recovery mechanisms/soft-goods ~6.5 kg — is owned by the respective subsystem docs and reconciled by Integration). The reconciled full-up strike config = empty-equipped ~104.5 kg + fuel 45 kg + payload up to 25 kg ≈ 174.5 kg, which closes within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin (Rev B.1, resolves F-1/R-01).
Method: each module sized from its surface area / member length × gauge × steel density (7850 kg/m³ for steel; ~1900 kg/m³ for glass laminate), with a process/joining mass adder (welds, rivets, adhesive, doublers) applied as a markup. Wing wetted area carried at ~2.4 m² (now ~73 kg·m⁻² wing-loading at 175 kg) [TBR from 11_propulsion_power.md — area may grow to hold the aero envelope; the structural mass below scales with any area growth].
| Structural item | Basis (first-order) | Mass (kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Wing structure (up-gauged spar caps, reuse fatigue margin, 175 kg loads) | ~2.4 m² skin @ 0.7 mm both surfaces + spar/ribs + adders | 16.0 |
| V-tail (both surfaces) | ~0.6 m² skin + spars/ribs | 4.0 |
| Forward fuselage + Faraday avionics bay (reusable seeker/compute housing) | skin 0.9 mm + frames + keel share | 8.0 |
| Center fuselage / wing carry-through torque box (also launch + recovery reaction, ~45 kg fuel surround) | welded steel box, highest local gauge | 9.0 |
| Aft fuselage + engine mount truss + firewall (uprated ~35 hp engine) | skin + welded truss + 3–5 mm firewall | 6.5 |
| Modular nose radome + ring frame | glass/basalt shell + steel ring | 2.5 |
| Payload bay structure (box + interface ring + rails, full 25 kg payload) | steel box reacting 25 kg payload | 4.5 |
| Hardpoints, launch/RATO fittings, divert-motor fitting | local 3–5 mm plate doublers | 2.5 |
| Recovery: Skyhook hook fitting + wingtip capture reinforcement | welded HSLA lug + capture rib + spar doublers | 1.8 |
| Recovery: parachute riser bridle + airbag attach hardpoints | welded fittings (soft-goods owned by 18_...) |
1.2 |
| Fasteners (rivets/bolts) + structural adhesive (cured) | ~4 % of structure as joining mass | 3.5 |
| Empty structural mass (line-item point estimate) | ~59.5 kg |
Reconciliation. The line-item point estimate sums to ~59.5 kg. To keep the structural share of the ~104.5 kg empty-equipped mass disciplined at the canonical ~52 kg figure, the delta is treated as detailed-design optimization headroom (gauge trims on lightly-loaded skins, lightening-hole optimization on ribs and frames). The conservative, un-optimized rollup is carried as:
| Rollup | Mass |
|---|---|
| Conservative line-item sum (above) | 59.5 kg |
| Detail-design optimization target (skin/rib trims) | −7.5 kg [TBR] |
| Reported structural budget (nominal) | ~52 kg [TBR] |
| Contingency band (±10 %) | 47–57 kg |
Reconciliation to baseline (Rev B.1). The locked baseline gives ~104.5 kg empty-equipped against a 175 kg MTOW. Structure at ~52 kg is exactly the structural line in the canonical empty-equipped rollup (structure ~52 + propulsion dry ~26 + electrical ~7.2 + autonomy ~3.4 + survivability ~9.3 + comms ~0.9 + CPI ~3.2 + recovery ~6.5 ≈ 104.5 kg). With fuel 45 kg + payload up to 25 kg, the full-up config ≈ 174.5 kg, closing within MTOW with positive margin [TBR by Integration rollup]. Steel content drives ~80 % of structural mass and is the deliberate DDR-07 penalty (§8); the recovery provisions add ~3 kg, the price of reuse (DDR-15) and a bargain against throwing the whole airframe away.
Note on the F-2/F-3/F-4 fixes (mass accounting hygiene): the terminal divert/"dodge" motor is charged once to survivability (~4.1 kg) and is not in this structural line nor in propulsion dry (FIX F-2 removes the old ~3.2 kg phantom from propulsion). Structure here owns only the divert-motor hardpoint fitting (a few-hundred-gram welded plate, in the "Hardpoints… divert-motor fitting" line), not the motor itself. The engine is ~17 kg dry charged to propulsion (FIX F-4), and structure is 52 kg (not the obsolete 40 kg / 7 kg split). These are the owner-doc-consistent numbers.
7. Load Cases & Structural Margin Rationale (at 175 kg MTOW)
All loads referenced to MTOW = 175 kg → W ≈ 1,717 N (g = 9.81 m/s²; 175 × 9.81 = 1,716.75 N). Margins are first-order; full FE + coupon testing in 17_test_verification_validation.md. Margin of Safety MS = (allowable / (limit × FS)) − 1, target MS ≥ 0 at ultimate.
7.1 Design load factors (reusable Group-3)
| Case | Limit load factor | Factor of safety | Ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Symmetric maneuver (pull-up) | +6.0 g | 1.5 | +9.0 g |
| Negative maneuver | −3.0 g | 1.5 | −4.5 g |
| Gust (sharp-edged, cruise) | bounded by ±6 g env. | 1.5 | — |
| Terminal divert "dodge" (DDR-11) | +12 g lateral, short-duration | 1.5 | +18 g |
| Launch / RATO axial | ~10–20 g axial (rail kick) [TBR] | 1.5 | — |
| Skyhook capture snatch (DDR-15) | ~12–16 g equivalent decel [TBR] | 1.5 | — |
| Parachute opening shock | ~3–4 g [TBR] | 1.5 | — |
| Airbag touchdown | ~6 g vertical [TBR] | 1.5 | — |
Load factors are MTOW-independent (they are g-multiples); the absolute forces grow with the 175 kg gross weight. The +9 g ultimate maneuver and +18 g ultimate divert envelopes are unchanged from Rev B, but every absolute load below is re-computed at W ≈ 1,717 N.
Full FS on the divert case (carried from Rev B). A reduced FS on the divert load is void: WILDFIRE is reusable and may divert on every sortie across ≥ 50 sorties, so the divert case carries the standard 1.5 FS and is treated as a fatigue-contributing event, not a one-shot. Direct consequence of DDR-15. The divert motor itself is charged once to survivability (~4.1 kg, FIX F-2); structure owns only its hardpoint.
7.2 Wing root bending — first-order (at 175 kg)
- Per-side lift at ultimate (+9 g):
L_side = 0.5 × 9 × 1,717 ≈ 7,727 N. - Spanwise CP at ~40 % semispan; semispan ~2.32 m → arm ~0.93 m.
- Root bending moment
M ≈ 7,727 × 0.93 ≈ 7,186 N·mat ultimate. - Mean chord ~0.52 m; spar box cap-centroid separation ~15 % chord ≈ 0.077 m → cap force
F = M/h ≈ 7,186 / 0.077 ≈ 93.3 kNper cap. - Required cap area at steel yield σ_y ≈ 350 MPa (HSLA):
A = F/σ_y ≈ 93,300 / 350e6 ≈ 267 mm². - A press-braked cap of 2.5 mm × 120 mm flange = 300 mm² → MS ≈ (300/267) − 1 ≈ +0.12 at ultimate. Positive — the section still closes at 175 kg MTOW. The MTOW growth from 150 → 175 kg consumed most of the prior fatigue-margin headroom (Rev B MS was ≈ +0.32 at 150 kg); at detailed design the cap may be up-gauged to ~2.8–3.0 mm to restore explicit endurance-limit margin for the ≥ 50-sortie reuse intent (small local mass adder, no new part). [TBR by FE.]
The point of showing this: the steel spar carries a +9 g ultimate wing at the heavier 175 kg gross weight at commodity gauge, with positive (if reduced) static margin. We are not mass-optimal (an aluminum/CFRP cap would be a third the mass) — and that is the accepted, intended penalty (§8). The reduced static margin at 175 kg flags the spar cap as the first section to revisit for fatigue substantiation under reuse (§7.7).
7.3 Carry-through torque box
The welded center box reacts both wings' root moments as an internal couple (~7,186 N·m per side ultimate at 175 kg). Steel weld allowables (even at "WWII tank" cosmetic quality) comfortably exceed the static demand; MS is governed by weld-throat fatigue, not static strength → the ≥ 50-sortie life requirement (DDR-15) makes the weld-fatigue coupon program (DDR-19) the binding substantiation here, not static test. The heavier MTOW raises the cyclic stress amplitude in the weld throats, so the coupon spectrum must be run at the 175 kg load set. [TBR]
7.4 Fuselage / payload-bay
Payload (full 25 kg, restored by the re-baseline) at +9 g ultimate = 25 × 9 × 9.81 ≈ 2,207 N reacted into the keel beam over the bay ring frames; fuel ~45 kg sloshing/inertial (45 × 9 × 9.81 ≈ 3,973 N at ultimate) reacted by the welded center box. Both are low compared with wing-root loads; sizing is driven by local crippling and rivet bearing, handled by local doublers. Bay interface ring sized for repeated payload/munition swaps (DDR-15 turnaround).
7.5 Recovery loads (DDR-15) — first-order, at 175 kg
Skyhook capture (driving recovery case). Capture at loiter speed ~70 kt (≈36 m/s); capture kinetic energy at the 175 kg recovery weight KE = 0.5 × 175 × 36² ≈ 113.4 kJ (up from ~97 kJ at 150 kg — a ~17 % energy increase the arrestor must absorb). Arrested over an effective give-back stretch d (cable elasticity + boom/bungee):
| Arrest stretch d | Avg cable tension | Equivalent decel |
|---|---|---|
| 6 m | ~18.9 kN | ~16.5 g |
| 8 m | ~14.2 kN | ~12.4 g |
Peak cable tension into the wingtip capture fitting ≈ 21–28 kN [TBR] (depends on arrestor compliance; scaled from the 18–24 kN Rev B figure for the heavier capture weight). The capture lug/rib is sized to react this into the spar cap (300 mm² × 350 MPa cap reserve ≈ 105 kN static capacity — still ample headroom over a ~28 kN snatch, though the headroom shrinks at 175 kg). The ~5× scale-up of the Skyhook beyond ScanEagle heritage and the recovery-method down-select remain open (risk R-03, NOT validated). [TBR by recovery-system dynamics in 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md.]
Parachute + airbag (alternate), at 175 kg. Chute opening shock ~3–4 g into the center-box riser hardpoint (absolute riser load scales with the 175 kg weight, so the bridle fitting is re-checked); steady descent ~6 m/s (a larger canopy is required for the heavier weight at the same descent rate — owned by 18_...); airbag stroke ~0.3 m → touchdown decel ≈ 6 g into belly attach hardpoints. Both bounded by the wing-root case in absolute force; sizing is local-fitting + riser-attach bearing. [TBR]
7.6 Divert-motor hardpoint (DDR-11)
The lateral solid-divert/"dodge" motor imparts a short, high lateral impulse on (potentially) every sortie. Its fitting is a 3–5 mm welded steel plate tied directly into the keel beam so the impulse reacts into the strongest member, not the skin. Treated as a fatigue-cycle contributor (DDR-15), not a one-shot. The motor mass (~4.1 kg) is charged once to survivability (FIX F-2); structure owns the hardpoint only. [TBR] thrust/impulse from 13_survivability_ew_hardening.md.
7.7 Fatigue & reuse life (DDR-15) — a PRIMARY load case
WILDFIRE is reusable for ≥ 50 sorties [TBR]; fatigue is a co-primary sizing case alongside static strength.
- Per-sortie damaging cycle set (first-order): 1 launch (RATO axial), ~1–N maneuver/gust cycles, up to 1 divert event, 1 recovery snatch. Over ≥ 50 sorties this is on the order of 10²–10³ significant cycles at the spar root / carry-through welds / capture fitting [TBR].
- Effect of the 175 kg re-baseline: the heavier MTOW raises the cyclic stress amplitude at the spar root (where static MS dropped from ~+0.32 to ~+0.12, §7.2) and at the carry-through welds. The endurance-limit, inspect-only intent is therefore conditional on the detailed-design cap up-gauge restoring the below-endurance-limit working stress; if not restored, the structure shifts toward a damage-tolerant / finite-life inspection regime. This is the binding open item for reuse.
- Why steel still helps: HSLA steel run below its endurance limit has effectively infinite life for the low-cycle count above; adhesive-bonded faying surfaces (§3.3) cut rivet-hole fatigue concentration.
- Substantiation: weld + rivet + capture-fitting fatigue coupon program to ≥ 50-sortie spectrum at the 175 kg load set (DDR-19 reuse-cycle readiness), full-scale fatigue article to ≥ 2× life [TBR in
17_test_verification_validation.md]. The ≥ 50-sortie engine/structural life vs engine-hour math is open risk R-04 — managed, not yet verified. - Inspection: defined turnaround inspection zones (§4.3) + peak-strain witness/cycle-count health monitoring (§4.4) gate continued reuse.
8. The Accepted Producibility-for-Weight Penalty (DDR-07) — and why reuse makes it a bargain
This is the central trade of the document and we make it explicitly, not by omission.
"heavier planes, less performance, but it was just bam bam bam, rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing." — [10:57–11:06]
| Trade | Exquisite design (rejected) | WILDFIRE DFM design (chosen) | Penalty accepted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary material | Aluminum / autoclave CFRP | Galvanized steel sheet + HSLA | +~20 kg empty mass vs ~32 kg Al/CFRP equivalent [TBR] |
| Forming | Multi-stage dies, chem-mill, layup | Single-stage press, stamp, roll | Heavier sections, blunter radii |
| Joining | Hi-lok / fastener-optimized / co-cured | MIG weld + rivet + adhesive | Weld mass, generous tolerances |
| Fatigue/reuse | CFRP needs per-event NDI after recovery damage | Steel endurance-limit, inspect-only | None — reuse is easier with robust steel |
| Result | Lighter, faster, more range/payload-efficient | Heavier, slightly less performance, durable & reusable | Bought back with cheap heavy fuel + larger engine, and signed MTOW growth to 175 kg |
Quantified penalty. Carrying ~52 kg of structure instead of a ~32 kg exquisite structure costs ~20 kg. On a 175 kg MTOW that is ~11 % of gross weight (vs ~13 % at the old 150 kg — the signed MTOW growth dilutes the structural-mass fraction). We recover the lost range/payload by:
1. Burning more cheap heavy fuel (JP-8/Jet-A) and flying it with the uprated ~35 hp (~32–38 hp band) commodity heavy-fuel engine (11_propulsion_power.md) — fuel is cheap, and the airframe comes home, so its cost is amortized over ≥ 50 sorties (DDR-15) rather than thrown away.
2. Accepting a modest cruise-speed/endurance trim; note the combined-adverse range worst case (~1,150 km vs the 1,500 km floor) is open risk K5 — the RTB reserve is protected regardless (§4.3).
Why this is the right call (DDR-05/06/08/15/17): the program KPPs are ≥ 1,000 units/day from existing factories and reusability, not best-in-class L/D. A heavier airframe that a Caterpillar line builds at 1,000/day and that survives ≥ 50 sorties beats a featherweight airframe that an aerospace shop builds at "a thousand a decade" [11:32] and that cracks after a few recoveries. The signed 175 kg MTOW is the program choosing producibility + reuse + full payload over mass-optimality, with the budget closing at positive margin. This is the embodiment of "Don't build the Batmobile" — and of "I'm not throwing away my airframe" [20:31].
9. Skin as Survivability Structure (interface to DDR-09 / DDR-10 / DDR-12)
The steel structure does double duty as the first survivability layer; full treatment in 13_survivability_ew_hardening.md, but the structural enablers owned here are — and all must leave the airframe flyable enough to recover (DDR-15):
9.1 Anti-laser (DDR-09)
- The steel skin already provides high thermal mass + high melt point vs a plastic/CFRP drone — precisely why a steel airframe is "100 times more survivable against a laser" almost for free [17:55–18:17].
- Structure owns the commodity ablative/reflective topcoat application surface: the galvanized steel exterior takes a sprayed intumescent/ablative paint and a high-reflectivity white/IR coating — both Home-Depot-class consumables (DDR-09). No structural change required; it is a coat line at the end of body assembly, and re-coatable at depot between reuse intervals if a sortie scorches it (DDR-15 maintainability).
- Optional roll/spin for laser dwell-spreading imposes only a balance/inertia requirement on the structure — met by symmetric L/R build; no new parts.
9.2 Anti-HPM / EMI (DDR-10)
- The welded/riveted steel skin forms a continuous conductive Faraday shell. Structure owns: (a) the avionics Faraday bay (forward fuselage, §3.2 module 2) — which houses the reusable seeker + compute that must survive to come home — built as a fully-welded steel box; (b) electrical bonding straps across every bolted module interface so the shell stays continuous despite the quick-swap modules; and (c) aperture management — RF/EO windows in the glass radome are the only deliberate gaps, gasketed/meshed per the survivability doc.
- The optical internal data bus (DDR-10) reduces the wiring that must penetrate the shell; structure provides shielded feed-throughs at the bay boundary.
9.3 Multi-threat simultaneity (DDR-12) — structural contribution to the closure
DDR-12 / REQ-12b/c require WILDFIRE to survive laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously while holding range + payload + RTB within MTOW. With the signed 175 kg re-baseline, the structure contributes its share — steel laser/thermal mass (§9.1), Faraday shell (§9.2), divert-motor hardpoint (§7.6), and recovery load paths (§4) — inside the ~52 kg structural budget that closes the ~174.5 kg full-up config within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin. Per the Rev B.1 directive this is stated as: DDR-12 closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — it is not claimed verified.
Net: the same steel that makes the airframe cheap to build, and durable to reuse, also makes it survivable, at near-zero added part count — the multi-threat "impossible design constraint" Palmer wants imposed on the enemy's C-UAS designer [18:46–19:16] is met partly by the structure itself, on a platform that survives it and returns to do it again (DDR-12/15), now with the mass budget closed at 175 kg.
10. Producibility & Reuse Summary (DDR-05/06/08/15/20)
- Bill-of-process: stamp, roll-form, press-brake, robotic MIG weld, rivet, adhesive bond, bolt. All native to automotive / ag-implement plants. No autoclave, no chem-mill, no NDI-per-part, no exquisite materials.
- Tooling: single-stage press dies and standard robotic weld/rivet cells; commodity and second-sourceable (DDR-20, "Japanese automotive workers" [23:24]).
- Part count: ~116 structural part types (< 120 gate) — unchanged by the 175 kg re-baseline (growth absorbed in gauge/section, not part roster). L/R symmetry + V-tail are the count-reduction levers; recovery provisions added ~20 types.
- Line-training: the four-process, generous-tolerance build is targeted to be trainable in ≤ 1 week (DDR-06) — body-in-white welders and rivet operators transfer directly.
- Rate: structure imposes no rate-limiting step incompatible with ≥ 1,000/day distributed (DDR-08); bottleneck is final mate, addressed by the 6-module parallel build.
- Reuse (DDR-15): robust steel sections run below the endurance limit → inspect-only, ≥ 50-sortie [TBR] intent (conditional on the §7.2 spar-cap up-gauge at 175 kg); bolted quick-swap modules + single munition bay enable ≤ 30 min turnaround; recovery loads share the existing primary load paths (no bespoke recovery airframe). The ≥ 50-sortie life (R-04) and Skyhook ~5× scaling (R-03) are managed, not-yet-verified risks — this is a concept study. Each reused airframe multiplies effective fleet capacity per unit the line builds — reuse and rate compound.
11. Open Issues / [TBR]
| # | Item | Owner / resolves via |
|---|---|---|
| TBR-10.1 | Wing area / semispan / chord lock at 175 kg (drives §7 loads & §6 wing mass; wing-loading ~73 kg·m⁻²) | 11_propulsion_power.md aero + this doc FE |
| TBR-10.2 | Empty-structural-mass FE rollup vs ~52 kg target (conservative sum 59.5; optimization −7.5) | Detailed FE mass model |
| TBR-10.3 | < 120 structural part-count confirmation at detailed design | 30_bill_of_materials.md |
| TBR-10.4 | Launch (RATO/rail) reaction load magnitudes at 175 kg | Launch analysis |
| TBR-10.5 | Skyhook capture snatch load + arrestor compliance at 175 kg (~113 kJ); wingtip capture-fitting sizing for ≥ 50 captures; ~5× heritage scaling (risk R-03) — method NOT down-selected | 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md recovery-system dynamics |
| TBR-10.6 | Parachute opening shock + airbag touchdown decel at 175 kg (larger canopy); riser/belly hardpoint sizing | 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md |
| TBR-10.7 | Divert-motor impulse, hardpoint sizing (full-FS, fatigue-contributing; motor ~4.1 kg charged to survivability not structure) | 13_survivability_ew_hardening.md |
| TBR-10.8 | Spar-cap up-gauge decision at 175 kg (MS dropped +0.32→+0.12); weld + rivet + capture-fitting fatigue allowables to ≥ 50-sortie spectrum at 175 kg loads; full-scale fatigue article (risk R-04) | 17_test_verification_validation.md (reuse-cycle readiness, DDR-19) |
| TBR-10.9 | Steel-vs-aluminum/CFRP mass-penalty quantification (~20 kg estimate, ~11 % of 175 kg) | Comparative sizing study |
| TBR-10.10 | Structural health-monitoring (witness gauge / cycle counter) spec for reuse qualification | 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md + Autonomy 12_... |
| TBR-10.11 | Combined-adverse range vs structure-driven empty mass (K5: ~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor; RTB reserve protected) | Integration + 11_propulsion_power.md |
| TBD-10.12 | Final steel grade/coating selection (corrosion vs weldability vs ablative compatibility vs reuse durability) | Materials trade |
Budget contribution
- Mass: ~52 kg (empty structure; this document owns the structural share of the ~104.5 kg empty-equipped budget against the 175 kg (385 lb) MTOW, Rev B.1)
- Wing structure (up-gauged caps, fatigue margin, 175 kg loads): 16.0 kg
- V-tail (both): 4.0 kg
- Forward fuselage + Faraday bay (reusable seeker/compute housing): 8.0 kg
- Center fuselage / wing carry-through torque box (launch + recovery reaction, ~45 kg fuel surround): 9.0 kg
- Aft fuselage + engine mount truss + firewall (uprated ~35 hp engine): 6.5 kg
- Modular nose radome + ring: 2.5 kg
- Payload bay structure (full 25 kg payload): 4.5 kg
- Hardpoints / launch / divert-motor fitting (motor mass charged to survivability, FIX F-2): 2.5 kg
- Recovery: Skyhook hook fitting + wingtip capture reinforcement: 1.8 kg
- Recovery: parachute riser bridle + airbag attach hardpoints: 1.2 kg
- Fasteners + cured adhesive: 3.5 kg
- Conservative line-item sum: ~59.5 kg; detail-design optimization target −7.5 kg → reported ~52 kg nominal [TBR] (±10 % band 47–57 kg)
-
(Structure is the ~52 kg line of the ~104.5 kg empty-equipped rollup: structure 52 + propulsion dry 26 + electrical 7.2 + autonomy 3.4 + survivability 9.3 + comms 0.9 + CPI 3.2 + recovery 6.5. Full-up = empty-equipped 104.5 + fuel 45 + payload ≤25 ≈ 174.5 kg, closes within 175 kg MTOW with positive margin.)
-
Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W — passive structure draws no electrical power. (Recovery-mechanism actuation, survivability spin/divert actuation, and health-monitoring sensor power are accounted in
18_...and13_..., not here.) -
Unit cost (volume): ~$8,500 (contribution to the ≤ $150k flyaway target — flyaway now ~$130k after the engine uprate, still ≤ $150k; at rate)
- Steel coil stock (~52 kg incl. scrap/offal at ~1.5× buy-to-fly): ~$80–120
- Glass/basalt composite nose/fairings (resin + fiber): ~$170
- Stamping/press-brake/roll-form machine time (amortized, high-rate): ~$1,500
- Robotic MIG weld + resistance weld cell time: ~$1,900
- Riveting + adhesive bonding labor/consumables: ~$1,100
- Recovery-fitting fabrication (Skyhook lug/rib, chute bridle, airbag hardpoints): ~$450
- Module mate, fixturing, bolting: ~$900
- Ablative/reflective + EMI bonding coat-line (structure's share of DDR-09/10 surface prep): ~$350
- Tooling amortization per unit at ≥ 1,000/day rate: ~$2,050
-
Indicative structure cost ~$8,500/unit at volume [TBR]; raw material is a near-rounding-error, consistent with DFM intent. The 175 kg re-baseline adds negligible structural cost (a little more steel coil + section); the engine uprate is charged to propulsion. Full cost model in
16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.md. -
Reuse impact:
- Enables the family-wide reuse KPP (DDR-15) at the structural level. Robust galvanized-steel sections run below the endurance limit → inspect-only, ≥ 50-sortie [TBR] fatigue-life intent (no per-sortie NDI), conditional at 175 kg on the §7.2 spar-cap up-gauge restoring the below-endurance-limit working stress. Adhesive-bonded faying surfaces cut rivet-hole fatigue concentration.
- Recovery load paths owned here (Skyhook wingtip capture fitting + spar feed-in; parachute riser + airbag belly hardpoints) sized to be reused ≥ 50 times at the heavier 175 kg recovery weight (~113 kJ capture energy), sharing the existing primary structure — no bespoke recovery airframe (DDR-17). Skyhook ~5× heritage scaling (R-03) and ≥ 50-sortie life (R-04) are managed, not-yet-verified risks.
- Turnaround ≤ 30 min (DDR-15): bolted quick-swap modules (nose/payload, wing, tail roots), a single bolted munition bay (the only routinely-expended item), and defined visual/tap-test inspection zones — no rework, no gear to re-rig.
- Cost-per-sortie: structure cost (~$8.5k) amortized over ≥ 50 sorties → ≤ ~$170/sortie structural share — the structural contribution to the program ~$3.1k/sortie target (airframe-amortized + fuel + munition), vs ~$8.5k/use if thrown away — a ~50× reduction, the economic core Palmer demands ("I'm not throwing away my airframe" [20:31]). Health-monitoring (witness gauge / cycle counter) gates continued reuse on data.
-
Net mass cost of reuse: ~+3 kg (recovery fittings) plus the fatigue-margin headroom inside the spar — a cheap price against discarding the whole airframe.
-
Assumptions / [TBR]:
- MTOW 175 kg (385 lb), W ≈ 1,717 N — Rev B.1 signed growth, resolves F-1/R-01; empty-equipped ~104.5 kg; structural share ~52 kg; wing area ~2.4 m² (AR ≈ 9, span ≈ 4.65 m), wing-loading ~73 kg·m⁻² [TBR from propulsion/aero — area may grow].
- Reconciled full-up strike config ≈ 174.5 kg (empty-equipped 104.5 + fuel 45 incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency + payload ≤25) → closes within 175 kg MTOW with positive margin [TBR by Integration].
- Steel σ_y ≈ 350 MPa (HSLA), ρ = 7850 kg/m³; glass laminate ρ ≈ 1900 kg/m³.
- Load factors +6 g limit / +9 g ultimate (FS 1.5); +12 g divert limit / +18 g ultimate (FS 1.5 — full FS, reuse correction); Skyhook capture ~12–16 g equiv (peak cable tension ~21–28 kN at 175 kg); chute ~3–4 g; airbag ~6 g — all [TBR].
- Spar cap 2.5 mm × 120 mm = 300 mm² → wing-root MS ≈ +0.12 ult at 175 kg (down from +0.32 at 150 kg; up-gauge to ~2.8–3.0 mm flagged to restore fatigue margin) [TBR].
- Divert/"dodge" motor (~4.1 kg) charged ONCE to survivability (FIX F-2); engine ~17 kg dry charged to propulsion (FIX F-4); structure 52 kg (supersedes obsolete 40 kg / 7 kg split).
- Part count ~116 (< 120 gate), unchanged by re-baseline [TBR at detailed design].
- Mass penalty vs exquisite design ~20 kg (~11 % of 175 kg MTOW), accepted per DDR-07 and recovered via cheap heavy fuel / uprated ~35 hp engine and amortized over ≥ 50 reuses.
- Fatigue/reuse life ≥ 50 sorties is inspect-only / endurance-limit intent, to be substantiated by coupon + full-scale fatigue article at the 175 kg load set (R-04, managed not-yet-verified) [TBR,
17_...]. - DDR-12 multi-threat simultaneity closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — not claimed verified.
- Combined-adverse range K5 (~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor) is a managed risk; RTB reserve protected regardless.
- Reuse life 50 [TBR]; flyaway ~$130k (≤ $150k); cost-per-sortie ~$3.1k. Costs are volume/at-rate estimates, not quotes; no validated test data is claimed — this is a concept study.
§ 06Propulsion, Fuel & Power
PROP▾
Propulsion, Fuel & Power
PROPDocument owner: Propulsion & Power Systems Parent platform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 (hero, recoverable & reusable), with read-across to BACKFIRE AGP-2 (Doc 20) Baseline: Rev B.1 locked envelope (seed brief §3.1, §4 closure note) — MTOW 175 kg (385 lb) Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets or first-order estimates; unverified physics-dependent items carry [TBR] / [TBD]. No validated test data exists yet.
Rev B.1 closure applied (authoritative). This revision re-baselines every performance number to MTOW 175 kg (signed growth from 150 kg, which resolves finding F-1 / risk R-01, mass overrun). Propulsion uprates to ~35 hp (32–38 hp band). Two mass-accounting fixes are applied: F-2 — the terminal divert/"dodge" motor is charged once to Survivability (Doc 13), and the ~3.2 kg phantom is removed from propulsion dry; F-3 — the propulsion-dry headline is an explicit ~26 kg itemization (dodge motor excluded), matching the BOM. The heavier MTOW costs range: the full-payload strike radius now sits near/below the 1,500 km floor on nominal assumptions and below it in the combined-adverse (K5) case — this is reported honestly as a managed, not-yet-verified risk, not a closure. The RTB fuel reserve is a fixed hold-back, protected in every case.
0. Design Drivers Satisfied (traceability)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey) | What this document does about it |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-15 | [20:22] "kinetics need to be reusable… we throw away every interceptor every single time. It'll never work. It's a total folly… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." | Sizes the fuel load (45 kg) to include a mandatory RTB reserve (~4 kg, fixed hold-back) so the airframe + engine + seeker + compute always come home. Specifies engine TBO / reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR] and a ≤ 30 min refuel turnaround. The powerplant is a recovered, reused asset — the only expended item is the (optional) munition. |
| DDR-13 | [19:06] "something that flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way." | Sizes a heavy-fuel piston powerplant (~35 hp) + 45 kg fuel against the locked ~1,500–2,500 km strike radius (incl. RTB) / 12–20 h loiter while preserving up to 25 kg modular payload to the terminal phase. Reports honestly that at 175 kg the full-payload radius falls near the floor (see §3, K5 risk). |
| DDR-11 | [18:39] "things you can do like solid rocket boosters that shove you out of the way at the last second and bring you out of the probable kill radius." | Specifies the terminal lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor (impulse, lateral g, miss-distance) for kinetic evasion — sized so it does not jeopardize recovery (DDR-15). Per fix F-2, the dodge-motor mass is charged to Survivability (Doc 13), counted once; this doc retains the engineering sizing only. |
| DDR-03 | [15:48] "in my \$200,000 Barracuda cruise missile, a \$300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price… two Moore's-law 18-month cycles away from it being much cheaper." | Electrical architecture treats compute power/cost as a rounding error; generator + battery buffer sized so the best-in-class Thor-class compute (~1000–2000 TOPS) draw is non-driving against a 242 W cruise / 621 W peak bus. |
| DDR-05/06/07 (supporting) | [09:34] "weapons that we can actually manufacture"; [10:06] "manufactured in a car factory" | Propulsion uses COTS engine cores from ag/automotive/UAV supply chains, not bespoke aero engines. No Batmobile (DDR-17). |
| DDR-12 (supporting) | [18:46] "almost impossible to build something that can stop all three… at the same time… flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way, and somehow survives." | Propulsion is the budget that funds the central tension: range + payload + survivability on one airframe that must also survive to return home. At 175 kg this tension is real — see the K5 range risk (§3.6). |
This document owns DDR-11 sizing (mass charged to Doc 13 Survivability per F-2) and is a primary contributor to DDR-13 and DDR-15. It traces every choice below to these IDs.
Rev B framing note. WILDFIRE is NOT a one-way airframe. Every range/endurance number below is computed for an out-and-back recoverable sortie with a reserved RTB fuel allowance. A one-way airframe is, in Palmer's words, "a total folly" [20:22]; that framing has been designed out. Only the munition (if carried) is expended.
1. Common-Fuel Mandate (heavy fuel: JP-8 / Jet-A)
1.1 Decision
WILDFIRE burns heavy fuel (JP-8 / Jet-A / diesel-class kerosene) in every powerplant variant. The baseline 2-stroke piston, the optional turboprop/turbojet dash engine, and the BACKFIRE turbine all run on the same NATO F-34/F-24 logistics fuel. No avgas, no gasoline, no methanol/glow fuel anywhere in the family.
1.2 Rationale (CONOPS + DDR)
- Single battlefield logistics chain. A theater already moves JP-8 for trucks, generators, and rotorcraft. A 1,000-a-day surge fleet (DDR-08) that needed a separate gasoline pipeline would break the "you can actually field it" test (DDR-17). One fuel = one bowser, one storage spec, one allied-interoperable supply (DDR-20). With reuse (DDR-15) the only recurring logistics flow per sortie is this fuel (+ optional munition) — so the fuel choice is the dominant sustainment decision.
- Safety / storability. Kerosene flash point (~38 °C for Jet-A, ~38–52 °C for JP-8) vs. gasoline (~−40 °C). Heavy fuel is dramatically safer to bulk-store, ship, and hot-refuel during a ≤ 30 min turnaround at a forward site.
- Energy density. JP-8 LHV ≈ 43 MJ/kg and ~35 MJ/L — within a few percent of gasoline by mass and higher by volume, so no range penalty for choosing it.
- Producibility (DDR-05/06). Heavy-fuel 2-stroke EFI piston cores and small turbines are both sourced from existing UAV/ag/automotive supply chains (see §6). The fuel choice does not drive a bespoke engine.
1.3 Penalty accepted (DDR-07 "accept the penalty")
Heavy-fuel 2-stroke piston engines run richer and hotter than gasoline equivalents, with ~5–10% higher BSFC and harder cold-start (glow-plug / heated-fuel assist required). We accept this penalty for logistics commonality, exactly per the brief's DFM-over-peak-performance doctrine: "heavier planes, less performance, but… rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing" [10:57, DDR-07] applies to propulsion as much as to structure.
2. Baseline Powerplant — Heavy-Fuel 2-Stroke EFI Piston Pusher (~35 hp)
2.1 Specification
| Parameter | Baseline value | Basis / note |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Twin-cylinder (boxer/inline) 2-stroke, heavy-fuel, EFI, spark-ignition (HF-spark) piston | COTS UAV class (e.g., 3W, Northwest UAV / NWUAV, Sky Power, Orbital-FlightPower heavy-fuel cores) scaled to the ~35 hp band |
| Rated power | ~35 hp baseline, 32–38 hp band (≈ 23.9–28.3 kW) at ~6,000–6,500 rpm | Rev B.1 uprate for 175 kg MTOW (was 25–30 hp at 150 kg; 10–12 hp at the original 95 kg target) |
| Displacement | ~500–650 cc | [TBR] by final mass/drag rollup at 175 kg |
| Configuration | Pusher, engine aft of payload/fuel | per Doc 10 airframe; clean nose for EO/IR seeker |
| Fuel | JP-8 / Jet-A (F-34/F-24) | common-fuel mandate (§1) |
| Fuel metering | Electronic fuel injection (EFI) + closed-loop O₂/EGT | altitude-compensated to 6,000 m ceiling; no carb tuning per unit (DFM) |
| Ignition | CDI spark, dual-redundant coil | heavy-fuel spark, not compression-ignition, for light weight + start reliability across ≥50 reuse cycles |
| Cooling | Forced-air (ducted) | no liquid loop = fewer parts, DDR-06; fewer wear items for reuse |
| Starting | Electric start off the buffer battery + glow/heated-fuel assist | runway-independent, no ground cart, supports fast turnaround |
| Dry mass (engine core + EFI + exhaust + mounts) | ~17 kg [TBR] | Fix F-4: engine dry ~17 kg (not the old 40/7 split); ~0.6–0.7 kg/hp at ~35 hp class |
| Propeller | 2- or 3-blade fixed-pitch composite, ~34–40" dia, pusher | fixed-pitch for cost (DDR-06); pitch optimized for cruise; up-sized for the heavier MTOW |
| BSFC (design assumption) | 380 g/kWh at cruise power [TBR] | heavy-fuel 2-stroke EFI, conservative; verify on dyno |
| Prop efficiency η_p | 0.75 [TBR] | fixed-pitch pusher at design cruise; lower off-design |
| TBO / reuse life | ≥ 250 h between overhaul; ≥ 50 sorties between depot touch [TBR] | DDR-15; see §2.3 — R-04 managed, not-yet-verified |
Fix F-3 — propulsion-dry headline. The propulsion subsystem charges ~26 kg dry to the mass budget, itemized in the Budget block (§10). The terminal dodge motor is explicitly excluded from this figure (charged to Survivability, Doc 13, per F-2). This headline now matches the BOM (Doc 30).
2.2 Why piston is the baseline (not the turbine)
A piston engine's brake thermal efficiency (~22% here) is 3–5× that of a micro-turbine at this scale. For DDR-13's "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way" — and for DDR-15's "come back" requirement, which demands an RTB fuel reserve — specific fuel consumption is the single most important number, and the piston wins decisively (see §3 vs §4). This matters more, not less, at 175 kg: the heavier MTOW already erodes range margin (§3.6), so the high-efficiency powerplant is the only way to keep the full-payload radius near the floor. The turbine is a mission-kit dash option, not the endurance powerplant.
2.3 Reuse life & turnaround (DDR-15 — primary KPP)
WILDFIRE's engine is a recovered, reused asset, not a consumable. The powerplant is designed and instrumented for a fielded reuse life of ≥ 50 sorties [TBR] between depot-level attention:
- Sortie-hours basis (R-04 — managed, NOT verified). A representative recoverable sortie (§3.5) runs ~6–10 engine-hours. At ≥ 250 h TBO that is ~25–40 sorties between overhaul on engine-hours alone; the ≥ 50-sortie target is met only by treating short ISR/strike sorties (≤ 5 h) as the design population and by mid-life inspection rather than full overhaul. The ≥50-sortie life vs. the engine-hour math is an open tension (risk R-04): it is a target, not a demonstrated result. Engine-hour metering drives reuse qualification (Doc 17/18).
- Wear-item design for reuse. Fixed-pitch prop (no constant-speed unit to fatigue), forced-air cooling (no coolant pump/loop), EFI (no per-flight carb tuning), and dual-redundant CDI all minimize the parts that age across reuse cycles. Spark plugs / glow assist and air/fuel filters are scheduled turnaround consumables, not per-sortie throwaways.
- Health monitoring. EGT, O₂ (lambda), cylinder-head temp, RPM, vibration, and oil/film-lube metering are logged every sortie and downloaded on recovery to support a go/no-go reuse decision and to retire the engine before, not after, a wear-out failure (interfaces with Doc 18 lifecycle).
- Turnaround (refuel + rearm) ≤ 30 min, small team (DDR-15). Hot-fuel via a single gravity/pressure port into the ~45 kg tank (≈ 56 L) is the pacing item: a 50–100 L/min field bowser fills in < 2 min; the balance of the 30 min budget is rearm (munition + dodge-motor reset, the latter owned by Doc 13), seeker/compute health pull, and walk-around. Heavy fuel is safe to hot-refuel (high flash point, §1.2).
3. First-Order Range & Endurance Validation at 175 kg MTOW (DDR-13 + DDR-15 RTB reserve)
3.1 Method & assumptions
Propeller-form Breguet equations. All values [TBR] pending CFD/wind-tunnel L/D and engine dyno BSFC. Re-baselined to the Rev B.1 locked envelope: 175 kg MTOW, 45 kg fuel including RTB reserve.
| Symbol | Assumption | Value |
|---|---|---|
| MTOW (W₀) | Rev B.1 locked baseline | 175 kg (385 lb) |
| Empty (equipped, recovered every sortie) | reconciled rollup | ~104.5 kg |
| Total fuel | locked baseline (JP-8, LHV 43 MJ/kg) | 45 kg |
| RTB / recovery reserve | held back for return + recovery (DDR-15) | ~4 kg (fixed hold-back, never planned-burned) |
| Contingency reserve | 5% navigation/contingency | ~2 kg |
| Payload (only expended item is munition) | locked baseline, restored by re-baseline | up to 25 kg |
| End mass (W₁) | MTOW − fuel burned | varies by case |
| (L/D) cruise | clean Group-3, no landing gear | 14 [TBR] |
| (L/D) loiter | near (L/D)max | 16 [TBR] |
| η_prop | fixed-pitch pusher | 0.75 [TBR] |
| BSFC | heavy-fuel 2-stroke EFI | 380 g/kWh [TBR] |
| Brake thermal eff. | = 1/(BSFC·LHV) | ≈ 0.220 |
| Overall propulsive eff. (cruise) | η_prop · η_thermal | ≈ 0.165 |
| V cruise / V loiter | brief | 120 kt (61.7 m/s) / 70 kt (36.0 m/s) |
3.2 Range — theoretical "all fuel" ceiling (Breguet, propeller form)
R = (η_overall / g) · LHV · (L/D) · ln(W₀/W₁)
With W₀ = 175 kg, W₁ = 175 − 45 = 130 kg (full fuel burned, no reserve — ceiling only):
R = (0.165 / 9.81) · 43e6 · 14 · ln(175/130) ≈ 3,014 km total air distance.
This is the upper bound with no reserve and is ~764 km lower than the 150 kg-baseline ceiling (3,778 km) — the direct, expected penalty of carrying 25 kg more airframe mass on the same fuel. The fielded number must hold back the RTB reserve, so the usable out-and-back radius is computed from the mission ledger in §3.5, not from this ceiling.
3.3 Endurance — theoretical ceiling (Breguet, propeller form)
E = (η_overall / (g·V_loiter)) · LHV · (L/D) · ln(W₀/W₁)
E = (0.165 / (9.81·36.0)) · 43e6 · 16 · ln(175/130) ≈ 26.6 h pure loiter on all fuel (theoretical ceiling, no reserve).
Cross-check by fuel flow at loiter shaft power (§3.4): at ~150–160 kg average mass, P_loiter ≈ 4.4–4.7 kW → ṁ = 0.380 kg/kWh × ~4.5 kW ≈ ~1.7 kg/h → 45 kg ≈ ~26 h ceiling. The headline 12–20 h loiter is still comfortably met after reserving fuel for launch, climb, transit, recovery, and the RTB margin (Case B, §3.5). Loiter endurance is far less sensitive to the mass growth than strike radius because loiter time depends on average power, and the loiter L/D is near max.
3.4 Power required — sanity check on the ~35 hp rating
P_shaft = W·V / ((L/D)·η_prop), evaluated at MTOW = 175 kg → W = 1,716.75 N:
| Phase | Speed | P_shaft (at MTOW) | Engine power fraction (of ~35 hp / 26.1 kW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruise (120 kt) | 61.7 m/s | ≈ 10.1 kW (13.5 hp) | ~39% of rated → low-wear, efficient |
| Loiter (70 kt) | 36.0 m/s | ≈ 5.15 kW (6.9 hp) | ~20% of rated → high-efficiency setting |
| Climb / RATO follow-on / hot-high / dodge-recovery | — | up to rated 23.9–28.3 kW | uses the full 32–38 hp |
The ~35 hp (32–38) rating is correctly sized for 175 kg MTOW: cruise sits at ~39% power (efficient, low-wear, good for reuse life), with substantial headroom for climb, RATO-launch follow-on acceleration, dodge-event recovery, and hot/high. The uprate from ~28 hp (150 kg baseline) restores cruise power fraction and accel margin at the heavier MTOW and directly supports DDR-15 reuse-life intent.
3.5 Representative recoverable mission ledgers at 175 kg (DDR-13 + DDR-15)
All cases are out-and-back, recoverable and reserve fuel for return + recovery. Fuel ledger from 45 kg total:
Fixed overheads (every sortie): - Launch (RATO) + climb to cruise: ~2.0 kg - RTB / recovery reserve (Skyhook approach, 2 wave-offs, loiter-to-recover): ~4.0 kg held back, never planned-burned (DDR-15) - 5% navigation/contingency reserve: ~2.0 kg - → Overhead = ~8.0 kg → ~37 kg usable for the productive part of the sortie.
Case A — Long-radius strike (recoverable, full 25 kg payload to terminal):
- Allocate all 37 kg usable to out-and-back transit at cruise, carrying up to 25 kg payload to the terminal point and recovering the airframe + seeker + compute.
- R_total = (0.165/9.81)·43e6·14·ln(W_start/W_end) with W_start = 175 kg, W_end = 175 − 37 = 138 kg → R_total ≈ 2,409 km → ~1,204 km out-and-back recoverable radius (incl. RTB).
- → This sits ~300 km BELOW the locked 1,500 km floor at full payload. It is the honest cost of the signed MTOW growth to 175 kg. The locked 1,500–2,500 km envelope is reached only by (a) trading payload down toward the ISR-only mass class, (b) recovering cruise L/D toward ~17 (LD16 → ~1,376 km; LD17 → ~1,462 km), and/or (c) using the +10% fuel band (49.5 kg → ~1,372 km). Logged for Integration as deviation; folds into open risk K5 (§3.6, §9 item 4).
Case B — ISR loiter (recoverable): - Transit out ~600 km radius at cruise (≈ 16 kg there-and-back of the 37 kg), leaving ~21 kg for on-station loiter at ~4.4–4.7 kW, ~150–160 kg avg mass. - On-station endurance ≈ 21 kg ÷ ~1.7 kg/h ≈ ~12 h on station → total sortie ~14–15 h. - → Meets the locked 12–20 h endurance at a 600 km radius, airframe + seeker recovered. (Reducing the transit radius or carrying a lighter ISR payload pushes loiter toward the upper bound.)
Case C — Medium-radius strike + loiter (typical): - ~600–800 km radius transit + ~4–6 h on-station loiter before terminal engagement, then RTB on reserve. Brackets the lower portion of the locked envelope. The heavier MTOW means the combined long-radius-plus-long-loiter corner of the locked envelope is no longer simultaneously achievable at full payload — a real trade documented for CONOPS (Doc 04) and Integration.
3.6 Range honesty note — K5 combined-adverse worst case (FLAGGED RISK, not closed)
The Case-A numbers hinge on three [TBR] assumptions — (L/D)_cruise = 14, η_prop = 0.75, BSFC = 380 g/kWh — and on the 175 kg MTOW. Two things must be stated plainly:
- Even nominally, the full-payload strike radius (~1,204 km) is below the 1,500 km floor at 175 kg. The mass growth that closed the mass budget (F-1/R-01) opened a range gap at full payload. These are coupled: the asset closes within MTOW with positive mass margin and sits below the range floor at full payload simultaneously — both are true, and the second is not resolved here.
- Combined-adverse (K5) worst case ≈ 1,150 km. A combined adverse swing of the three levers (e.g., L/D ~12.6 / η_p ~0.70 / BSFC ~420, or a milder simultaneous swing on the +10% fuel band) drives the recoverable Case-A radius down toward the program-authoritative K5 worst case of ~1,150 km vs. the 1,500 km floor (this doc's own three-lever 10% swing computes ~915 km on nominal 45 kg fuel and ~1,043 km on the +10% band — both below floor and both bounded by the ~1,150 km authoritative figure as the managed planning number).
| Range case (recoverable, full 25 kg payload) | Radius (km) | vs. 1,500 km floor |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal (LD14 / η_p 0.75 / BSFC 380, 37 kg usable) | ~1,204 | −296 (below) |
| LD recovery to 16 / 17 | ~1,376 / ~1,462 | near floor |
| +10% fuel band (49.5 kg) | ~1,372 | below floor |
| K5 combined-adverse worst case (authoritative) | ~1,150 | below floor, RTB reserve protected |
| This-doc three-lever 10% adverse swing (nominal fuel) | ~915 | below floor, RTB reserve protected |
Status: K5 is a MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED risk — do NOT read these as a closure. The DDR-13 range KPP at full payload is not satisfied at 175 kg on nominal assumptions and is further eroded in the adverse case. Resolution paths (any/combination): trade payload toward ISR mass for long-radius sorties; recover cruise L/D via airframe refinement (Doc 10); use the +10% fuel band; or accept a CONOPS that fields the full-payload strike role at the achievable ~1,150–1,200 km radius (Doc 04 decision). Critically — because the RTB reserve is a fixed hold-back, every adverse swing eats into mission radius, NOT the reserve; the airframe still comes home (DDR-15). Dyno BSFC and wind-tunnel L/D are the two measurements that bound this risk; until measured, the full-payload range KPP is analysis-pending, not verified.
4. Turbine Dash Option (mission kit)
4.1 Specification
| Parameter | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Single-spool micro-turboprop (preferred) or micro-turbojet | COTS UAV class (PBS-class turboprop / JetCat-AMT-KingTech-style turbojet, heavy-fuel) |
| Shaft power (turboprop) / thrust (turbojet) | ~35–50 hp shaft / 45–70 lbf thrust | Rev B.1 dash kit, up-sized for 175 kg |
| Fuel | JP-8 / Jet-A | common-fuel mandate |
| TSFC / PSFC | turbojet ~1.2–1.5 kg/(kgf·h); turboprop ~0.5–0.7 kg/kWh [TBR] | turbine inherently thirstier than the piston |
| Role | Terminal dash / pop-up / time-critical strike, 160+ kt; faster ingress in contested terminal | not for endurance |
| Reuse | turbine core also recovered & reused (DDR-15) | shares the same RTB doctrine |
| Integration | Module-level swap of the aft propulsion pallet | airframe-level decision (Doc 10) |
4.2 Why it is only a dash option (DDR-13/15 + DDR-17)
At dash power a turbine burns several times the piston's fuel flow, so on the same 45 kg load it delivers far less radius/endurance and a thinner RTB reserve — exactly the wrong trade for a platform that must "come back so [it] can be refueled, rearmed, and reused" [20:27, DDR-15], and an even worse trade at 175 kg where range margin is already negative at full payload (§3.6). The turbine buys speed and a short terminal sprint, paid for in range and reserve. It is therefore offered as a mission kit for time-critical or contested-terminal sorties, never as the endurance baseline. Defaulting the whole fleet to turbines would be a Batmobile move (DDR-17). It shares fuel and the same generator/electrical architecture, so it is a clean module swap.
5. Propulsion Trade Summary
| Criterion | 2-stroke HF piston (baseline) | Turbine dash kit | Electric (rejected) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFC / range / RTB reserve | Excellent (η≈0.22) — leaves a protected reserve | Poor (η≈0.05–0.12) — thin reserve | N/A (battery energy density too low) |
| Top speed | ~120–140 kt | 160–220+ kt | low |
| Endurance | 12–26 h | <2 h | <1 h |
| Reuse life / wear (DDR-15) | Long TBO, few wear items [TBR R-04] | Hot-section life-limited; recoverable | cells degrade with cycles |
| Producibility (DDR-06) | COTS ag/UAV cores | COTS UAV turbine cores | cells fine, no range |
| Fuel commonality (§1) | JP-8 | JP-8 | electricity |
| Verdict | BASELINE | Option kit | Rejected for primary mission |
Electric is rejected for the primary mission on energy density alone (Li-ion ~0.25 kWh/kg vs. JP-8 ~12 kWh/kg of usable shaft energy after efficiency) — it cannot meet DDR-13 range or leave a DDR-15 RTB reserve, least of all at 175 kg. Batteries serve only as the electrical buffer (§7).
6. Producibility of Propulsion (DDR-05 / 06 / 07 / 20)
- No bespoke aero engine. Both the HF 2-stroke piston and the turbine are COTS engine cores already produced for UAVs, ag/utility equipment, and recreational/turbine markets. WILDFIRE integrates a core; it does not develop an engine. This is the propulsion expression of "build weapons that we can actually manufacture" [09:34, DDR-05].
- Automotive/ag sourcing. 2-stroke heavy-fuel cylinders, EFI throttle bodies, injectors, fuel pumps, CDI, and O₂/EGT sensors are all automotive/powersports/small-engine commodity parts — the bill-of-process Palmer demands when he asks for something "manufactured in a car factory" [10:06, DDR-06]. A John Deere / GM / Ford / Caterpillar-class line can assemble the powerplant module with ≤ 1-week line training (DDR-06).
- Fixed-pitch prop, air cooling, no gearbox. Direct-drive pusher, fixed-pitch composite prop, forced-air cooling → minimum part count, no constant-speed unit, no liquid cooling loop. Accepts a few % efficiency loss for big DFM/cost wins (DDR-07) — and fewer wear items for reuse (DDR-15).
- Allied second-source (DDR-20). HF UAV engines and micro-turbines have multiple US, EU, and allied-Asian suppliers ("a bunch of Japanese automotive workers" [23:24]) → no single-vendor lock; exportable.
- Modular powerplant pallet (reuse-enabling). Engine + EFI + generator + exhaust + mounts ship as one line-replaceable propulsion module that bolts to the aft fuselage hardpoints. This is also the reuse-maintenance unit: a time-expired or damaged powerplant is swapped at the module level during turnaround/depot, keeping the rest of the recovered airframe in service (DDR-15). Piston ↔ turbine swap is a module-level change, not an airframe redesign.
7. Terminal Lateral Solid-Divert "Dodge" Motor — Engineering Sizing (DDR-11)
Mass-accounting note (Fix F-2 / F-3 — authoritative). The terminal divert ("dodge") motor is charged ONCE, to Survivability (Doc 13), at ~4.1 kg. It is NOT included in this document's propulsion-dry mass or BOM line. The ~3.2 kg "phantom" that previously appeared in propulsion dry is removed. This section retains the engineering sizing only (DDR-11 is jointly owned by Propulsion and Survivability); the mass budget for it lives in Doc 13.
"there are things you can do like solid rocket boosters that shove you out of the way at the last second and bring you out of the probable kill radius." — Palmer Luckey, [18:39] (DDR-11)
7.1 Concept
A pair of small transverse (side-firing) solid-propellant pulse motors, fired on autonomy command in the terminal ~0.3–0.5 s before a predicted kinetic intercept, to translate the airframe laterally out of the lethal radius of an interceptor warhead / proximity fuze or a hit-to-kill body. This is a last-ditch kinetic-evasion layer, complementary to (not a replacement for) laser/HPM hardening (Doc 13, DDR-12). Cueing comes from the onboard threat-warning + autonomy stack (Doc 12); release obeys the bounded-autonomy / positive-control rules (DDR-18).
Reuse interaction (DDR-15): the dodge motor exists precisely so the airframe survives to RTB. It is a one-shot-per-tube consumable (like the munition) that is reset/reloaded during turnaround, not a thrown-away vehicle. A successful jink that saves a recoverable airframe + Thor-class compute + seeker for the cost of ~1 kg of commodity solid propellant is the most favorable reuse-economics trade on the platform.
7.2 Sizing (first order, at 175 kg MTOW)
Vehicle terminal mass m ≈ 130 kg [TBR] — a recoverable WILDFIRE near end-of-mission has burned much of its usable fuel but still carries empty-equipped structure (~104.5 kg) + residual fuel/RTB reserve (~6 kg) + retained ISR payload (munition may or may not have been released). Two opposed/canted side motors give left/right authority; only one fires per event.
| Design lever | Relation | Result (m = 130 kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Lateral thrust for n-g | F = m·n·g | 8 g → 10.2 kN; 12 g → 15.3 kN |
| Lateral velocity after burn | Δv = a·t_burn | 8 g over 0.3 s → ~24 m/s |
| Lateral displacement in reaction window | s = ½·a·t² | 8 g, 0.3 s → ~3.5 m; 0.5 s → ~9.8 m; 12 g, 0.5 s → ~14.7 m |
| Total impulse for the jink | I = m·Δv | Δv 25 m/s → ~3,250 N·s |
| Propellant mass | m_p = I/(Isp·g), Isp≈200 s | ~1.7 kg propellant |
| Motor module mass (prop + inert, 2 motors) | ~2.4× propellant | ~4.1 kg total (charged to Doc 13 Survivability per F-2) |
7.3 Selected design point
| Parameter | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Configuration | 2 × transverse solid pulse motors (port/starboard) | one fires per evasion event; second = other-side authority; both reset at turnaround |
| Total impulse (each) | ~3,250 N·s [TBR] | scaled for the heavier ~130 kg terminal mass at 175 kg MTOW |
| Burn time | ~0.3 s | high thrust, short |
| Peak lateral thrust | ~10–11 kN (~2,250–2,470 lbf) | |
| Achieved lateral acceleration | ~8 g at 130 kg | scales higher if terminal mass lower / impulse higher |
| Lateral Δv | ~24–30 m/s | |
| Miss-distance generated | ~3.5–7 m within 0.3–0.5 s (10–15 m if full burn used early) | exceeds typical small-C-UAS lethal radius / fuze trigger envelope |
| Propellant | composite or double-base solid, Isp ~200 s | COTS small-motor / model-rocket-industrial supply chain (DDR-06) |
| Trigger | autonomy threat-cue, deterministic, human-on-loop-bounded (DDR-18) |
Interpretation: Most fielded small kinetic interceptors and gun/airburst C-UAS rounds rely on a lethal radius of order a few meters and a fuze sized to the expected trajectory. A commanded ~5–7 m lateral jump inside the last fraction of a second moves WILDFIRE outside that radius and breaks the fuzing solution — "bring you out of the probable kill radius" [18:44]. It cannot defeat a perfectly-tracking, fast-reacquiring hit-to-kill with margin to spare, but it imposes the exact "almost impossible" multi-threat design burden on the enemy interceptor designer that DDR-12 describes — and it does so while preserving the recoverable airframe for the next sortie (DDR-15).
7.4 Producibility & integration (DDR-06/07/15/17)
- Small solid motors are commodity (industrial/model-rocket/flare supply chains, multiple allied sources). No exquisite propellant.
- Motors mount in sealed transverse tubes flush to the fuselage with frangible covers; nozzles canted slightly aft so residual thrust adds a small forward/positive component, not drag.
- Reloadable, low cost (<\$1k/pair target). Spent tubes are re-canistered during the ≤ 30 min turnaround (DDR-15); the frangible cover is the only structural item replaced. No gold-plating: a single, cheap, decisive jink — not a continuous reaction-control system (DDR-17).
- Mass (~4.1 kg) is charged to Doc 13 Survivability, counted once (F-2) — a real payload-fraction cost carried the whole mission and accounted for honestly against DDR-12/13. Justified because survivability is co-equal with range/payload in DDR-12 and is what allows the asset to come home (DDR-15).
8. Electrical Power Architecture & Budget (DDR-03 supporting)
8.1 Architecture
Engine-driven generator + battery buffer, a classic series-hybrid-style DC bus optimized for low part count and reuse-friendly maintenance.
Engine crank ──► Permanent-magnet alternator/generator (~1.0–1.2 kW) ──► Rectifier/regulator
│
┌───────────────────────────────────┤ 28 V (or 24 V) main DC bus
│ │
Li-ion buffer battery (~350 Wh) ◄──charge/discharge──┤
│ │
(start power, peak-load buffering, │ ┌──────────┬───────────┬────────┴────────┬───────────┐
silent/glide reserve, EMP ride- │ Compute EO/IR & Flight servos/ SDR/comms Payload
through to optical bus, Doc 13) │ (Thor-cl.) cameras actuators (when on) bus
- Generator off the engine accessory drive sized to ~1.0–1.2 kW continuous — comfortably above the ~621 W peak electrical load (below), with margin for battery recharge, the Thor-class compute draw, and hot-day derate.
- Battery buffer (~350 Wh Li-ion) handles: electric engine start, transient/peak loads (servo + dodge-event + compute-burst + comms coincidence), a brief silent/generator-out glide reserve (which also doubles as a get-home-on-battery reserve supporting DDR-15 recovery if the engine quits late), and EMP/HPM ride-through so the avionics never sees a bus dropout (interfaces with Doc 13 Faraday/optical-bus hardening, DDR-10). Buffer cells are a scheduled reuse-life item (cycle-counted, replaced at depot), not a per-sortie throwaway.
- 28 V (or 24 V) DC main bus; point-of-load converters per LRU. Two-fault-tolerant feeds to flight-critical control (FCC + servos) (DDR-18 deterministic control).
8.2 Power budget (first order) — 242 W cruise / 621 W peak
| Load | Cruise (W) | Peak (W) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute (Thor-class autonomy, ~1000–2000 TOPS) | 60 | 130 | DDR-03: power & cost a rounding error; best-in-class |
| EO/IR gimbal + nav cameras (3–6 global-shutter + 1 gimbal) | 35 | 60 | terminal/loiter heavy |
| Flight control servos / actuators | 40 | 160 | peak = gust/maneuver/dodge-event |
| FCC + IMU/baro/optical-flow/star-tracker sensors | 20 | 30 | voted dual IMU |
| SDR / comms (opportunistic, off-able) | 10 | 40 | mission-complete with radios OFF (DDR-01) |
| Payload bus (reserved) | 25 | 80 | modular payload allowance (up to 25 kg payload class) |
| Engine accessories (EFI, fuel pump, ignition, glow) | 20 | 40 | |
| Conversion/distribution losses (~15%) | 32 | 81 | |
| TOTAL electrical | ≈ 242 W | ≈ 621 W |
- Generator margin: ~1.0–1.2 kW gen vs. ~621 W peak → ~1.6–1.9× margin, sufficient to power loads and recharge the buffer in flight.
- Compute is non-driving (DDR-03): even at the Thor-class ~60–130 W it is ~25–21% of the bus — its power (and its cost) is a rounding error against the engine, fuel, and airframe, exactly as Palmer argues for the chip in the Barracuda [15:48]. Rev B deliberately picks best-in-class compute, not the cheapest module; the electrical architecture absorbs it with margin.
- Radios-off case (DDR-01/04): dropping the SDR saves ~10–40 W; the vehicle completes its mission on vision autonomy with comms fully powered down, so the electrical architecture never makes RF a critical-path load.
8.3 Producibility (DDR-06)
PM alternator, automotive-grade rectifier/regulator, COTS Li-ion buffer (18650/21700 or pouch), and commodity DC-DC converters. No bespoke power electronics; all from automotive/UAV supply chains. Battery and harness are designed as field-replaceable reuse-life items to keep turnaround fast and depot cost low.
9. Open Issues / [TBR]
| # | Item | Resolution path |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BSFC = 380 g/kWh | Engine dyno on JP-8 across altitude/temperature. Drives range and RTB-reserve sizing directly. |
| 2 | (L/D)_cruise = 14 / (L/D)_loiter = 16 | Wind-tunnel / CFD from Doc 10 airframe. The other dominant range lever; L/D recovery toward 17 is the cleanest path to lift the strike radius back toward the floor. |
| 3 | η_prop = 0.75 | Fixed-pitch prop selection + static/whirl test at cruise advance ratio (prop up-sized for 175 kg). |
| 4 | Range deficit at full payload + K5 combined-adverse (~1,150 km worst case vs. 1,500 km floor) — OPEN, MANAGED, NOT VERIFIED | Nominal full-payload radius ~1,204 km is already below the floor at 175 kg; K5 drives it to ~1,150 km (and ~915 km on this doc's three-lever 10% swing). Resolution: trade payload toward ISR mass for long-radius sorties; recover L/D (item 2); +10% fuel band; or CONOPS decision (Doc 04) to field full-payload strike at the achievable radius. RTB reserve protected in all cases. Integration sign-off required. |
| 5 | Engine TBO / reuse life ≥ 250 h / ≥ 50 sorties (risk R-04) — MANAGED, NOT VERIFIED | Tension vs. engine-hour math (≥250 h TBO ⇒ ~25–40 sorties on hours alone). Endurance/durability dyno on JP-8; field reuse-cycle demo (Doc 17/18, DDR-19 shoot-off includes a turnaround/reuse demonstration). |
| 6 | RTB / recovery fuel reserve = ~4 kg | Lock after Skyhook recovery energy + wave-off allowance defined with Doc 18 (recovery method not down-selected — risk R-03). Protects DDR-15 "come home." |
| 7 | Dodge-motor lethal-radius assumption & terminal mass 130 kg | Validate ~3.5–7 m miss vs. representative threat fuze envelopes (Doc 13 / T&E Doc 17). Confirm terminal mass by rollup (Doc 03). Mass charged to Doc 13 (F-2). |
| 8 | Turbine PSFC/TSFC | Vendor data / bench test; sets dash-kit range and its (thinner) RTB reserve. |
| 9 | Generator continuous rating (1.0–1.2 kW) & buffer sizing (350 Wh) | Lock after final load list (incl. Thor-class compute peak) and EMP ride-through + get-home duration (Doc 13/18). |
| 10 | HF cold-start margin at altitude/cold, repeatable across ≥50 reuse cycles | Glow/heated-fuel assist test; start-reliability is a reuse/turnaround driver. |
Budget contribution
- Mass: ~26.0 kg propulsion dry + 45 kg fuel contribution to the 175 kg MTOW. Dodge motor is NOT included here — charged once to Survivability, Doc 13 (Fix F-2). Propulsion-dry headline = ~26 kg (Fix F-3), itemized:
- Engine core + EFI + exhaust + mounts (HF 2-stroke piston, ~35 hp): ~17.0 kg (Fix F-4: engine dry ~17 kg, not the old 40/7 split)
- Propeller + spinner + hub (up-sized for 175 kg): ~2.4 kg
- Fuel system (tank, lines, EFI pump, filters) dry: ~3.2 kg
- Generator/alternator (~1.0–1.2 kW) + rectifier/regulator: ~3.0 kg
- Power distribution (bus, DC-DC, harness): ~2.0 kg
- (Battery buffer ~350 Wh ≈ 2.2 kg is reported under Electrical in the integration rollup; it is shown in §8 but accounted in the electrical ~7.2 kg line of the empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, not double-counted here.)
- Subtotal propulsion dry ≈ 26.0 kg — matches the BOM (Doc 30) and the seed-brief propulsion-dry ~26 kg.
- Fuel (consumable, JP-8, incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency): ~45.0 kg (counted separately in the mass rollup).
- Power (cruise / peak): N/A as a net consumer — this subsystem is the electrical source. It generates ~1.0–1.2 kW continuous and supplies the vehicle bus whose total load is ~242 W cruise / ~621 W peak (§8.2). Self-consumption (EFI/pump/ignition/glow): ~20 W cruise / ~40 W peak, included in that total.
- Unit cost (volume): ~\$25,000 contribution to the ≤ \$150k flyaway (~\$130k current estimate) target. Breakdown (high-volume COTS-core estimates [TBR]):
- HF 2-stroke EFI piston core + EFI (~35 hp, uprated): ~\$12,000 (engine uprate adds a little vs. the ~28 hp estimate)
- Propeller/hub: ~\$650
- Fuel system: ~\$900
- Generator (~1.0–1.2 kW) + regulator: ~\$1,200
- Power distribution / converters / harness: ~\$900
- Integration/test/contingency (~35%): ~\$5,500
- (Dodge-motor pair cost is carried in Doc 13 Survivability per F-2, not here.)
- (Battery buffer ~\$500 carried under Electrical.)
- Fuel (per-sortie consumable, ~45 kg JP-8 @ ~\$1–2/kg): ~\$45–90/sortie (not in flyaway; logistics line item)
- (Turbine dash kit is a separate option ~\$25–60k, not in the baseline flyaway.)
- Reuse impact: Propulsion is the dominant reuse-economics subsystem. (1) The mandatory ~4 kg RTB fuel reserve is the physical guarantee the airframe + engine + seeker + compute come home (DDR-15); it is held back, never planned-burned, even under the combined-adverse K5 case — which eats mission radius, not the reserve. (2) Engine TBO ≥ 250 h / ≥ 50 sorties [TBR, risk R-04 — managed, not verified] with health-monitoring (EGT/lambda/CHT/vib) and a fixed-pitch/air-cooled/EFI low-wear architecture targets amortizing the engine over ≥ 50 sorties — collapsing cost-per-sortie toward fuel + munition, supporting the program ~\$3.1k/sortie target (airframe amortized over ≥50 sorties + fuel + munition). (3) The modular powerplant pallet is the reuse-maintenance unit (module swap, not airframe rebuild). (4) Hot-refuel of the ~56 L tank in < 2 min keeps the ≤ 30 min turnaround feasible; the buffer battery is cycle-counted at turnaround. (5) The terminal divert motor (owned by Doc 13) spends ~1.7 kg of commodity propellant to save a recoverable airframe — the best reuse trade on the platform. Per-sortie consumable cost from this subsystem ≈ fuel (~\$45–90) + scheduled wear items.
- Assumptions / [TBR]: MTOW 175 kg (Rev B.1 signed growth, resolves F-1/R-01); fuel 45 kg incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve (fixed hold-back) + ~2 kg contingency; BSFC 380 g/kWh; (L/D) 14/16; η_prop 0.75; LHV 43 MJ/kg; engine ~35 hp (32–38); propulsion dry ~26 kg (dodge motor excluded, F-3); engine dry ~17 kg (F-4); terminal mass ~130 kg; dodge impulse ~3,250 N·s @ ~8 g, mass ~4.1 kg charged to Doc 13 (F-2); generator ~1.0–1.2 kW; buffer ~350 Wh; Thor-class compute ~60–130 W; electrical 242 W cruise / 621 W peak. HONEST KPP STATUS: loiter ≥ 12 h and the RTB reserve are met on baseline assumptions; the full-payload recoverable strike radius is ~1,204 km nominal — below the 1,500 km floor at 175 kg — and the combined-adverse (K5) worst case is ~1,150 km, both OPEN/MANAGED/NOT-YET-VERIFIED (risk K5), to be retired by dyno BSFC + wind-tunnel L/D and/or a CONOPS payload/radius trade. Engine reuse-life ≥50 sorties vs. engine-hour math is risk R-04 (managed, not verified). No validated test data exists yet; all figures are design targets/estimates. This is a concept study, not a frozen design.
§ 07Autonomy, Compute & Software
BRAIN▾
Autonomy, Compute & Software
BRAINDocument role: "The Brain." Defines the fully-onboard autonomy that replaces RF/fiber, navigates "like a pilot" with vision and no GPS/radio, executes the autonomous precision recovery that makes the airframe reusable, the best-in-class COTS compute module that hosts it, and the bounded-autonomy software/safety architecture that makes it auditable and lawful to field.
Status: Concept design / engineering study (Rev B). All numbers are design targets or first-order estimates. Unverified items carry [TBR] (to-be-resolved by analysis/test) or [TBD].
REV B FRAMING (overrides any legacy text). 1. WILDFIRE IS RECOVERABLE AND REUSABLE (DDR-15, primary KPP). The airframe + seeker + compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition (if any) is expended. The brain therefore owns one mission phase the racing heritage never needed: autonomous precision recovery (Skyhook-cable capture / spot landing) — a pure vision-autonomy problem the heritage perception→pose→guidance loop is already the right tool for. A one-way airframe is "the total folly" [19:38]; it is designed out here. 2. NOT CONSTRAINED BY AIGP COMPETITION HARDWARE. The AIGP racing stack is flight-/sim-proven heritage that the vision-nav brain works — it is not a hardware ceiling. WILDFIRE flies the best-in-class compute (Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS), sensors, and toolchain consistent with the manufacturing doctrine (DDR-05/06/07). Compute cost is still a rounding error against the airframe (DDR-03).
0. Design Drivers Satisfied (traceability)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey) | What this doc owns |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-01 [14:36] | "all of these schemes around radio frequency lengths and fiber optics… they're probably going to go away because it's going to be cheaper, better, faster, more resilient to just have on board autonomy do basically everything." | Full mission executable with radios OFF. RF is opportunistic, never on the critical path. |
| DDR-02 [16:01] | "I can navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… do it the way that a pilot would. You look out the window and you… drive to the place you need to go until you see the thing you need and go to it." | Vision-based en-route navigation + terminal target acquisition and the visual recovery fix. GPS/RF-denied end-to-end. |
| DDR-03 [14:53–15:53] | "a \$300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price… we're like two Moore's law 18-month cycles away from it being much cheaper… it's already kind of a rounding error." | Best-in-class COTS edge-AI compute (Thor-class), treated as a cost rounding error against the airframe; architected for falling \$/TOPS. |
| DDR-04 [15:54] | "completely resistant to all jamming systems, not just on the communications, but also things like navigation." | No RF-dependent navigation; no single RF point of failure. |
| DDR-15 [19:32–20:46] | "kinetics need to be reusable… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." | Autonomous precision recovery as a flight phase: vision-guided Skyhook capture / spot landing with no RF, no GPS; health-state autonomy to qualify the airframe + seeker + compute for the next sortie. The brain is what makes "come back" actually happen. |
| DDR-18 [33:01] | "I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI." | Bounded, testable, auditable autonomy: geofence, ROE gates, human-on-the-loop lethal release, deterministic abort, runtime monitors. |
Secondary linkage: DDR-10 (Faraday-shielded, EMP-hard compute bay → see §7 and doc 13), DDR-11 (terminal evasion "dodge" maneuver commanded by the agile policy → see §5.5, doc 13), DDR-14 (open track/data format → see doc 15), DDR-17 ("Don't build the Batmobile" — best-in-class is not gold-plating when it buys mission capability at rounding-error cost → §3, §9).
Heritage anchor. The autonomy core is not paper. It is the competitor's flight-/sim-proven AIGP racing stack (/tmp/grandprix, spec VADR-TS-001/002) — vision-only gate navigation, no GPS, no LiDAR, MAVLink — adapted from a 1.5 m racing course to a 1,500–2,500 km strike radius and back to a Skyhook cable. The mapping of each heritage module to a WILDFIRE function (including recovery) is the backbone of this document (§4). The racing stack ran on a ~100-TOPS Jetson Orin NX because that is what the competition mandated — it is the proof the algorithm fits, not the production silicon. WILDFIRE re-hosts the same graphs on a best-in-class Thor-class module (§3) with margin to spare.
1. The thesis in one paragraph
Palmer's claim is that onboard autonomy beats the radio/fiber datalink on cost, latency, and jam-resistance simultaneously, and that the compute to do it is now a rounding error in a weapon's BOM. WILDFIRE is the airframe wrapped around exactly that brain. The same perception → pose → guidance → control loop that flies a quadcopter through eleven 1.5 m gates at 30 m/s using one forward camera and an IMU — with no GPS and no depth sensor — is the loop that flies WILDFIRE down a valley, matches what it sees to an onboard map, recognizes the target, runs the terminal engagement, and then flies the airframe home and threads it onto a Skyhook cable or onto a spot landing. A Skyhook wire or a recovery mat is, to this brain, just another known-geometry visual gate — exactly the problem the heritage PnPEstimator was built to solve. We change the platform model, the sensor suite scale, the map, and the mission state machine; the architecture and most of the algorithms are inherited. Reusability is therefore not a bolt-on — it is the same vision-autonomy capability pointed at one more gate.
2. Autonomy requirements (derived)
| # | Requirement | Source | Verification |
|---|---|---|---|
| A-1 | Complete a full strike/ISR mission (launch → ingress → search → ID → terminal → effect/abort → egress → recovery) with all RF emitters OFF. | DDR-01/04/15 | HWIL mission rehearsal, RF-silent flight test incl. recovery (doc 17). |
| A-2 | Navigate en-route without GPS or any radio nav aid; position drift bounded by visual map/landmark fixes. | DDR-02/04 | VIO drift + scene-match fix accuracy vs surveyed truth. |
| A-3 | Acquire, classify, and geolocate the designated target type optically ("look out the window… until you see the thing you need"). | DDR-02 | Detection P_d/P_fa on representative imagery; geolocation CEP. |
| A-4 | Run the entire loop onboard in real time within the power/thermal/SWaP budget of §3 and §8. | DDR-01/03 | Bench latency/throughput; thermal soak. |
| A-5 | Bounded autonomy: enforce geofence + ROE gates; human-on-the-loop for lethal release where the comms link exists; deterministic abort to a safe state on any monitor trip. | DDR-18 | Fault-injection, monitor coverage matrix, abort timing. |
| A-6 | Degrade gracefully: named, deterministic behavior for loss of camera, IMU, map-lock, target, recovery aimpoint, or compute fault — never an undefined state. | DDR-18 | Degraded-mode FMEA + injected-failure flight. |
| A-7 | Compute is field-updatable without touching the airframe; cost a rounding error against flyaway (DDR-03); architected TOPS-agnostic so a faster/cheaper module drops in next cycle. | DDR-03 | BOM (doc 30); OTA/loader design; recompile-only port test. |
| A-8 | Execute autonomous precision recovery — visually guide the airframe onto the Skyhook capture wire (or spot-landing aimpoint) with terminal placement accuracy ≤ the recovery system's capture envelope [TBR by doc 18], with no GPS/RF, and only when an independent health-state monitor declares the airframe fit to recover. | DDR-15 | Captive/instrumented capture trials; recovery-CEP vs surveyed wire; health-monitor coverage (doc 17/18). |
| A-9 | Reuse qualification: log per-sortie airframe/seeker/compute health (g-history, thermal, throttle, fault counts, optics integrity) to support a ≤ 30 min turnaround go/no-go and the ≥ 50-sortie reuse-life accounting. | DDR-15/19 | Immutable log → turnaround checklist; reuse-life tracking (doc 18). |
Non-requirements (DDR-17 discipline). No SLAM-grade dense 3D reconstruction. No multi-camera stereo depth (PnP + VIO give range without it — heritage proves this). No on-board LLM "reasoning." No exquisite radiation-hard space-grade compute. No GPS receiver on the critical path (a passive, anti-spoof-monitored GPS may ride as an opportunistic, never-trusted-alone fix — see §5.4). DDR-17 note on "best-in-class": choosing a Thor-class module over the heritage Orin is not Batmobile gold-plating — it buys real headroom for recovery + scene-matching + safety partitioning at a cost that is still <1% of flyaway (§3.3). Gold-plating would be a custom ASIC, rad-hard silicon, or a sensor with no CONOPS line item — none of which we do.
3. Compute module — sizing to DDR-03 (best-in-class, rounding-error cost)
3.1 Heritage proof, then lift the ceiling
The AIGP stack was forced onto a Jetson Orin NX (~100 TOPS) by competition rules and still flew YOLOv8n at ~62 FPS (TensorRT FP16) plus a CasADi MPC and an ONNX RL policy — comfortably real-time on a quad. That is the existence proof that the vision-nav brain fits in a small edge budget. WILDFIRE is unconstrained by that rule and carries materially more load: more cameras, higher-resolution detection over cluttered long-range scenes, a continuous VIO front-end, scene/map matching against an onboard reference, the recovery-phase fine pose loop, and a partitioned safety/monitor stack. We therefore select the best-in-class module, not the cheapest that barely fits.
Selected baseline: Thor-class automotive/edge-AI module, ~1000–2000 TOPS (INT8/FP8) class (NVIDIA Jetson Thor-class or equivalent automotive ADAS/AD SoC). This matches the Rev B locked envelope (doc 00 §3.1: "best-in-class COTS edge-AI module, Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS"). The heritage Orin remains the certified-by-flight reference and a fallback/second-source data point; the production graphs are TOPS-agnostic and run on either with a recompile (§3.4).
3.2 Why this is right-sized (first-order budget)
A Thor-class module gives roughly 5–20× the heritage compute. We deliberately spend that margin on capabilities the racer never needed (recovery, scene-matching at strike scale, hardened safety partitioning, sensor count) and on holding a large thermal/timing margin for reliability across ≥ 50 reuse sorties.
| Workload | Heritage analog (100 TOPS) | WILDFIRE rate | Est. load @ ~1000–2000 TOPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Object/target detector (YOLO-class, INT8) | YOLOGateDetector 62 FPS on 100 TOPS |
30 Hz, larger input, more classes | ~5–10% |
| VIO front-end (feature track + EKF) | InertialIntegrator + PnP fixes |
200 Hz IMU / 30 Hz visual | ~3–6% |
| Scene/map matching (place recognition + landmark register) | new; GPU embedding match | 2–5 Hz | ~5–10% |
| Recovery fine-pose loop (Skyhook wire / spot-mark PnP + segmentation) | PnPEstimator + GateSegNet analog |
30–60 Hz, terminal only | ~5–10% (terminal phase) |
| Guidance (MPC) | AttitudeMPC (CasADi/IPOPT) |
20–50 Hz | ~3–6% CPU |
| Inner control / fallback policy (ONNX) | NeuralController |
100–250 Hz | <3% |
| Safety monitors + state machine + immutable logging | new, partitioned | 100+ Hz | <5% CPU |
Headroom target ≥ 50% at cruise and ≥ 30% in the terminal/recovery phase [TBR by integration benchmark]. The module runs at a thermal/power set-point below max to preserve timing margin and component life across the reuse fleet (§8) — a reliability-for-reuse decision, not just a thermal one.
3.3 Cost — the rounding-error argument made explicit (DDR-03)
"in my \$200,000 Barracuda cruise missile, a \$300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price." [15:48] "it's already kind of a rounding error… we're like two Moore's law 18-month cycles away from it being much cheaper." [15:16–15:53]
WILDFIRE flyaway target is ≤ \$150k (doc 00 §3.1, Rev B). A Thor-class module at volume is on the order of \$1,000–2,000 [TBR — automotive AD volume pricing trend]. Even at the high end that is ~1.3% of flyaway — still a rounding error against the airframe, exactly Palmer's point, and the reusable economics make it even smaller per-sortie: amortized over ≥ 50 sorties the compute contributes ~\$20–40 per sortie to a target cost-per-sortie of ≤ ~\$3k + fuel + munition (DDR-15). We buy the module COTS at volume and refuse to gold-plate around it (no custom ASIC, no rad-hard). Per the Moore's-law point we architect the software to be TOPS-agnostic (ONNX/TensorRT graphs, no hand-tuned silicon dependence) so the same stack drops onto a cheaper/faster module next cycle with a recompile, not a redesign. This is the single most leveraged producibility decision in the brain.
3.4 Producibility & second-source (DDR-06/20)
- Module is a single COTS LRU on a board-edge/SO-DIMM-class connector → snap-in install, no skilled rework. Line training ≤ 1 week (DDR-06).
- Two qualified module families carried as second-source — e.g., a Thor-class primary and an Orin-class fallback (the heritage-proven part) — with the toolchain abstracting the runtime; satisfies allied/distributed-production portability (DDR-20) and de-risks supply.
- No BGA rework, no custom ASIC, no exotic cooling — DDR-17 compliant.
- Reuse note: the module is a recovered, reused asset, not a consumable. It must survive ≥ 50 sorties of vibration, thermal cycling, and divert-g (DDR-11), which is why we run sub-max and stress-screen the carrier board for fatigue (interface to doc 18 reuse-life qualification).
4. Heritage module → WILDFIRE function mapping
The competitor's repo (/tmp/grandprix, README + spec VADR-TS-001/002) is the proven brain. Each module below already runs in simulation; the column on the right is the adaptation for WILDFIRE — including the new recovery role each module plays.
| Heritage module (file) | What it does today | WILDFIRE role / adaptation | DDR |
|---|---|---|---|
vision_pipeline.py — ColorGateDetector, YOLOGateDetector, PnPEstimator, VisionPipeline |
Detect gates (HSV or YOLOv8n), refine 4 corners, solve PnP → 6-DoF pose + range from a single camera; is_valid gate, get_nearest_gate(), per-stage latency timers. |
Perception + monocular ranging + recovery aimpoint. Swap the "gate" class for mission classes (targets, runways, bridges, vehicles), known-geometry landmarks, and the Skyhook capture wire / spot-landing mark. PnP on a known-size landmark/target/wire gives range with no depth sensor — the core of "look out the window… go to it" and of threading the recovery wire. | 02/15 |
gate_segmentation.py — GateSegNet (U-Net ~3.7M params, ONNX export) |
Pixel mask → contour → quad → subpixel corner → better PnP; handles partial/edge gates. | Precision terminal aimpoint + partial-target handling + recovery line/mark segmentation. A subpixel mask of the designated object yields a terminal aimpoint; the same net masks the recovery wire / mat against background for a subpixel capture aimpoint in the final seconds — the recovery-accuracy driver (A-8). | 02/15 |
drone_mpc_foundation.py — DroneState, DroneCommand, DroneParams, GatePursuitController, AttitudeMPC (CasADi/IPOPT, 9-state) |
State schema, reactive visual-servo controller, and a constrained MPC that tracks waypoints (gate positions) with tilt/rate limits and input-smoothness costs. | Guidance + control + recovery trajectory. Re-parameterize DroneParams/dynamics for the fixed-wing WILDFIRE (and turbojet BACKFIRE); MPC tracks the visual-map waypoint chain, the terminal intercept, and the constrained approach onto the Skyhook wire / spot (tight terminal box, airspeed/sink-rate limits). GatePursuitController becomes the lightweight reactive fallback when the optimizer is unavailable (§6). |
13/15 |
rl_controller.py — DroneRaceEnv (13-D obs, 4-D act), NeuralController (ONNX) |
PPO policy trained in sim, exported to ONNX, runs as a drop-in controller; 13-D perception-relative observation. | Fast inner-loop / agile-maneuver policy + gust-rejection on capture. The ONNX policy is the deterministic, fixed-latency inner controller, the engine behind the terminal kinetic-evasion "dodge" (DDR-11, doc 13), and the agile stabilizer that holds the airframe on the wire-capture line through gusts. Trained in sim_drone-class 6-DOF sim, sim-to-real hardened (§9). |
11/13/15 |
mavsdk_bridge.py — SimBridge, InertialIntegrator, FullState, 5 control modes, apply_position_correction() |
MAVLink v2 I/O; dead-reckons position from HIGHRES_IMU+ATTITUDE because the sim publishes no GPS / no position; bounds drift via vision PnP corrections (apply_position_correction). |
Flight-controller interface + the GPS-denied estimator pattern. This module is the proof of DDR-02/04: it already navigates with no position feed, integrating IMU and snapping to vision fixes. WILDFIRE keeps the exact pattern — IMU dead-reckon, vision/map fix to bound drift — over MAVLink to the FCU, including the final vision fix onto the recovery wire. | 01/04/15 |
race_pipeline.py / test_race_standalone.py state machine (INIT→TAKEOFF→SEEK→APPROACH→TRANSIT→…→FINISHED, RECOVERY/EMERGENCY) |
Deterministic mission state machine with explicit recovery and emergency fallbacks. | Mission executive — now with a real recovery phase. Re-skinned to the WILDFIRE mission phases (§5.1) with the safety/abort states of §6 layered in and a first-class RECOVER phase (the racer's RECOVERY state was a fault fallback; WILDFIRE promotes "recovery" to a nominal, mission-completing phase — bring the airframe home). The pattern — named states, explicit fallbacks — is exactly the auditable structure DDR-18 demands. |
18/15 |
Key heritage insight, load-bearing for DDR-04 and DDR-15: the AIGP MAVLink layer was forced to operate with no position telemetry at all (mavsdk_bridge.py header: "The simulator does NOT publish position/velocity — no GPS… The client must dead-reckon position from HIGHRES_IMU + ATTITUDE. Drift is bounded by vision-based gate corrections"). That is precisely the GPS-/RF-denied regime WILDFIRE must own both outbound and inbound — so the hardest part of the architecture, including flying home and onto a wire without GPS, is already flown in sim, not theorized. A Skyhook wire is just the last gate.
5. Pipeline architecture: Perception → State Estimation → Guidance → Control
┌───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
CAMERAS ──────▶ PERCEPTION │
3–6 global-shutter wide-FOV │ • Detector (YOLO-class, INT8) [vision_pipeline.py]
+ 1 EO/IR gimbal │ • Segmentation aimpoint (U-Net) [gate_segmentation.py]
│ • PnP 6-DoF on known-geometry [PnPEstimator]
IMU ×2 (voted) ─┐ │ targets/landmarks/RECOVERY WIRE → range
baro / mag │ └──────────┬─────────────────────┬────────────┘
optical flow │ │ feature tracks │ landmark/target/
(opt) startrkr │ ▼ + pose obs ▼ wire obs + class
└──▶ STATE ESTIMATION (onboard, GPS/RF-free) │
• VIO EKF: IMU dead-reckon [InertialIntegrator] │
• Visual map / scene matching → absolute fix │
• Terrain/landmark referencing → bounds drift │
• apply_position_correction() [mavsdk_bridge.py] │
│ fused state (pos/vel/att + covariance) │
▼ │
GUIDANCE │
• Mission executive (state machine) [race_pipeline] │
• Route MPC → waypoint chain [AttitudeMPC] │
• Terminal homing / evasion solver │
• RECOVERY approach solver (wire/spot box) │
│ setpoints │
▼ │
CONTROL │
• Inner loop: ONNX policy / fallback PID [rl_controller]
• MAVLink to FCU (SET_ATTITUDE_TARGET…) [mavsdk_bridge]
│ │
┌──────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ SAFETY KERNEL (independent, deterministic) — geofence • ROE • abort • monitors │
│ • health-state monitor → recovery go/no-go (DDR-15) │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
5.1 Mission phases (re-skin of the heritage state machine)
INIT → LAUNCH (RATO/rail) → CLIMB → INGRESS(map-following) → SEARCH → CLASSIFY/ID → TERMINAL(home or evade) → EFFECT/ABORT → EGRESS → RECOVER(Skyhook capture / spot landing) with EMERGENCY/ABORT and LOITER fallbacks reachable from every state (§6). This is the AIGP INIT→TAKEOFF→SEEK→APPROACH→TRANSIT→…→FINISHED machine with mission semantics and, critically, RECOVER promoted from a fault fallback to a nominal mission-completing phase (DDR-15) — the flight is not "done" until the airframe is back on the cable. ISR sorties run the same machine with no EFFECT; the airframe (and its non-expended EO/IR seeker) always returns.
5.2 Perception
- Sensors (locked baseline, doc 00 §3.1): 3–6 wide-FOV global-shutter cameras (forward + oblique + at least one aft/down-looking field for the recovery approach) + 1 EO/IR gimbal for terminal ID and night/obscurant. Global shutter is mandatory — rolling-shutter skew corrupts VIO and PnP at WILDFIRE speeds.
- Detector: YOLO-class network, INT8/TensorRT, model-format priority
.engine > .onnx > .pt(exact heritage_resolve_modelbehavior). Classes: mission target types + navigation landmarks (bridges, towers, road junctions, coastline features) + recovery fiducials (Skyhook mast/wire, spot-landing marker). - Segmentation + PnP: U-Net mask → subpixel corners →
cv2.solvePnP(..., SOLVEPNP_IPPE_SQUARE)against known landmark/target/recovery geometry (heritage usesGATE_CORNERS_3D; WILDFIRE substitutes surveyed landmark dimensions, a target template, or the surveyed Skyhook-wire geometry). This is how range is obtained with no depth sensor — the literal mechanism behind "go to it" and behind threading the wire. - Confidence gating: heritage
GateDetection.is_valid(confidence > 0.3 and est_distance < 100 m) generalizes to per-class confidence + range-plausibility gates feeding the estimator, the ROE logic, and the recovery go/no-go (the capture aimpoint must clear a tighter confidence + geometry gate than a normal landmark).
5.3 State estimation (the GPS-/RF-denied core)
Three layers, fused in an EKF; each independently degradable:
- Inertial dead-reckoning — direct from heritage
InertialIntegrator:a_world = R(q)·a_body + g_ned; v += a·dt; p += v·dt + ½a·dt². High-rate (≥200 Hz), zero latency, unbounded drift alone. - Visual-inertial odometry (VIO) — feature tracking + IMU in a tight EKF for low-drift relative motion; bounds short-term drift between absolute fixes.
- Absolute fixing — visual map / scene matching + terrain/landmark referencing. WILDFIRE carries an onboard reference map (satellite/recon imagery + a landmark database + a terrain/elevation model) and the surveyed geometry of the recovery site / Skyhook system. Periodic place-recognition embeddings and PnP on recognized landmarks produce absolute NED fixes injected via the heritage
apply_position_correction(pos_ned, alpha)hook (withalphaset by fix confidence — a soft Kalman-style blend, not always a hard snap). Terrain referencing provides altitude and along-track aiding in feature-poor terrain.
This is "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… the way a pilot would" [16:01] expressed as an estimator: integrate motion, look out the window, recognize where you are, correct — outbound to the target and inbound to the cable. The heritage stack already does items 1 and 3 (PnP fix → apply_position_correction); WILDFIRE adds 2 and the scene/terrain/recovery map.
Drift budget (first-order, target). Tactical-grade MEMS IMU bias → free-inertial drift ~1–3 km over a 1,500–2,500 km ingress without aiding [TBR]. With VIO + a visual/landmark fix on the order of every few minutes (terrain-dependent), target en-route position error ≤ 50–150 m CEP [TBR by analysis/HWIL], collapsing to terminal-sensor-limited accuracy (meters) once the target is in the EO/IR field of view — at which point absolute geodetic accuracy stops mattering because guidance is relative-to-target. The identical logic holds for recovery: the airframe navigates back to within visual range of the recovery site on map fixes, then collapses to the wire-relative PnP/segmentation loop — final placement is capture-fiducial-limited, not GPS-limited. Coarse dead-reckon between gates, sharp PnP at each gate — including the last one.
5.4 The role (and limits) of GPS/RF
Per DDR-01/04, nothing on the critical path may depend on RF — outbound or inbound. Optionally, a passive GNSS receiver and the SDR mesh (doc 15) may supply opportunistic fixes/updates — but they are treated as untrusted, monitored inputs: an innovation-gated, spoof-/jam-monitored aiding source the estimator can reject wholesale. If every RF input vanishes or is hostile, the mission completes and the airframe recovers unchanged on vision + inertial. That is the design's answer to "completely resistant to all jamming systems… also things like navigation" [15:54] — and it is what makes a reusable airframe survivable: a recovery you can jam is not a recovery.
5.5 Guidance
- Route guidance: mission executive emits a waypoint chain (ingress corridors, search box, terminal initial point, egress corridor, recovery initial point);
AttitudeMPC(CasADi/IPOPT, re-parameterized for fixed-wing dynamics and longer horizon) tracks it with tilt/rate/airspeed constraints and input-smoothness costs (heritageQ_pos/Q_vel/Q_yaw/R/R_dustructure). Replan on map-fix updates, target events, and recovery-site updates. - Terminal guidance: proportional-navigation-style homing on the EO/IR-tracked, U-Net-segmented aimpoint; range/closure from PnP and VIO. The reactive heritage
GatePursuitController(visual servo on bearing error) is the analytic backbone and the degraded fallback. - Terminal evasion (DDR-11): on interceptor-warning cues, the ONNX agile policy commands a high-g lateral jink / coordinates the solid-divert "dodge" motor (doc 13) to generate miss-distance, then re-acquires. (Survivability exists in service of reuse — you cannot reuse what does not come home, DDR-12/15.)
- Recovery guidance (DDR-15): the
RECOVERphase runs a constrained approach solver — MPC tracks a tight terminal box onto the Skyhook capture wire (or spot-landing aimpoint), holding airspeed / sink-rate / lateral-offset limits, with the ONNX inner policy rejecting gusts on the final segment. The capture aimpoint is the U-Net-segmented wire/marker, ranged by PnP (§5.2). The approach is a visual servo on a known-geometry fiducial — i.e., the heritage gate-approach problem with a tighter tolerance box. If the capture confidence/geometry gate is not met, guidance executes a wave-off (deterministic go-around) and re-attempts, or diverts to the parachute+airbag alternate (doc 18) — never a blind closure.
5.6 Control
- Inner loop: the heritage
NeuralControllerONNX policy (or a deterministic gain-scheduled PID fallback) running at 100–250 Hz, outputting attitude/rate + thrust to the FCU viamavsdk_bridgeMAVLinkSET_ATTITUDE_TARGET/ rate mode. The FCU (PX4/ArduPilot-class, hardened) closes the actuator loop. - Command authority is bounded by the safety kernel (§6): every setpoint passes through envelope/geofence/ROE checks before dispatch — including the recovery-phase sink-rate/airspeed limits.
6. Bounded-autonomy & software-safety architecture (DDR-18)
"I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hyper-intelligent, truly sentient, hostile AI." [33:01]
Palmer's stated fear is dumb autonomy doing harmful things, not Skynet. The engineering response is a small, independent, deterministic Safety Kernel that sits below and around the learning-based autonomy and can always override it. The smart stack proposes; the dumb-but-trustworthy kernel disposes.
6.1 Two-domain architecture
| Domain | Contents | Properties |
|---|---|---|
| Performance domain | Detector, segmentation, VIO/scene-match, MPC, ONNX policy, recovery approach solver | ML/optimization, best-effort, may be nondeterministic; partitioned, monitored. |
| Safety domain (Safety Kernel) | Geofence, ROE gates, envelope limiter, human-on-the-loop release logic, deterministic abort/wave-off, runtime monitors, recovery health-state go/no-go, watchdog, immutable logger | Small, formally reviewable, deterministic, fixed-latency, independent of ML outputs; can command abort/terminate/wave-off alone. Targets a DO-178C/MIL-grade-style assurance posture for this partition only [TBR]. |
The two run in partitioned compute (separate process/core, ideally a separate safety MCU co-located in the Faraday bay) so a hang or fault in the performance domain cannot prevent the kernel from acting. This mirrors heritage discipline: the AIGP state machine already separates normal flight from explicit RECOVERY/EMERGENCY states; we harden that boundary into a privilege boundary. The Thor-class module's headroom (§3.2) makes this partitioning free — we are not fighting for cycles.
6.2 Required safety functions
- Geofence. Hard 3-D operating volume + keep-out polygons loaded pre-mission. Breach (predicted or actual) → immediate guidance clamp, then abort if uncorrected. Enforced in the safety domain on the fused estimate, independent of mission logic.
- ROE gates (engagement interlocks). A lethal/terminal action requires an AND of testable conditions: valid target classification ≥ threshold confidence and target geolocated inside an authorized engagement box and positive-ID criteria met and (where link exists) human authorization and no abort asserted. Any single false condition inhibits release. This makes "dumb AI" unable to act on a bad classification.
- Human-on-the-loop lethal release. When the (opportunistic) link is up, terminal lethal release requires a positive human consent token, with a bounded decision window; fail-safe default is no-release / abort, never auto-release on silence. When the link is down by design (DDR-01 RF-silent ingress), release is permitted only inside the narrowest pre-authorized ROE envelope agreed at mission planning, logged, and still gated by all non-human interlocks above. (Policy parameter, set per CONOPS and rules-of-engagement; doc 04/17.)
- Deterministic abort / wave-off. A single, well-defined
ABORTtransition reachable from every state, with bounded execution time, driving to a defined safe end-state (ISR: egress/loiter/recover; strike: safe-disposal/self-neutralize per payload doc 14). In theRECOVERphase the same primitive becomes a deterministic wave-off/go-around — if the capture gate is not met the airframe breaks off on a pre-planned path and re-attempts or diverts to the alternate recovery (parachute+airbag, doc 18). No undefined or "creative" failure behavior, and no reckless closure on the cable that could damage a reusable airframe. - Runtime monitors. Continuous, independent checks: estimator innovation/health, attitude/airspeed/sink-rate envelope, perception confidence and temporal consistency, IMU cross-vote, compute watchdog/heartbeat, thermal/power limits, geofence proximity, and action plausibility (does the commanded maneuver match the mission intent?). Any trip → degrade or abort/wave-off per §6.3.
- Recovery health-state go/no-go (DDR-15). Before committing to capture, an independent health monitor evaluates whether the recovered asset is fit to recover and to re-fly: control-surface/actuator health, remaining-fuel/energy for a wave-off, structural g-history within limits, optics integrity, compute thermal/fault state. A failed health check forces the alternate recovery mode or a controlled set-down away from people — protecting both the cable hardware and the airframe's reuse life. This monitor's output is also the reuse-qualification record (A-9).
- Immutable audit log. Tamper-evident onboard log of perception decisions, fixes, ROE evaluations, authorizations, commands, and the recovery health/turnaround record — for post-mission accountability, the instrumented shoot-off (DDR-19, doc 17), and the ≥ 50-sortie reuse-life accounting / ≤ 30-min turnaround go/no-go (doc 18). Auditability is a DDR-18 requirement, not a nicety.
6.3 Degraded-mode behavior (every failure has a name)
| Failure | Detection | Deterministic response |
|---|---|---|
| Camera loss / blinding (incl. laser dazzle) | Frame health, perception confidence collapse | Fly on VIO+inertial to last fix; switch to redundant camera/EO-IR; if all optics lost → inertial loiter/RTB or abort. |
| Single IMU fault | Dual-IMU cross-vote | Drop to healthy IMU, raise drift estimate, shorten fix interval; flag. |
| Map-lock lost (no scene match) | Fix age / match score | Continue on VIO with growing covariance; widen search for known landmarks; if covariance > threshold before target/recovery → abort/loiter. |
| Target lost in terminal | Track dropout | Reacquire pattern (heritage _search_pattern); if not reacquired within window → break off / re-attack / abort per ROE. |
| Recovery aimpoint lost / capture gate not met | Capture confidence/geometry gate, sink-rate/airspeed monitor | Deterministic wave-off / go-around; re-attempt up to N times; then divert to parachute+airbag alternate (doc 18) or controlled set-down clear of people. Never a blind closure. |
| Health-state no-go (asset unfit to recover) | Recovery health monitor (§6.2-6) | Select alternate recovery mode; if none safe, controlled set-down in keep-out-clear zone; flag asset for inspection (reuse-life hold). |
| Compute fault / hang | Watchdog heartbeat | Safety MCU takes control: deterministic PID fallback to straight-and-level + abort; or terminate per payload safing. |
| MPC infeasible / slow | Solver timeout | Fall back to reactive GatePursuitController-style visual servo (heritage fallback ladder) — applies to ingress, terminal, and recovery approach. |
| RF jam/spoof on opportunistic aiding | Innovation gate, spoof monitor | Reject RF aiding entirely; continue vision+inertial (nominal RF-silent mode). No mission or recovery impact. |
| HPM/EMP transient | Faraday bay + transient monitors (doc 13) | Watchdog reset to known-good state; resume from last fix; abort if reset storm. |
No path leads to undefined behavior — the core of "dumb AI in the hands of evil people" mitigation is that the dumb parts are deterministic and bounded, including the parts that bring a reusable airframe home.
6.4 Producibility & assurance (DDR-17/DDR-19)
- The Safety Kernel is deliberately small so it can be exhaustively tested and reviewed — best-in-class compute in the performance domain (it is best-effort) does not bloat the safety domain, which stays minimal.
- All ML artifacts (detector, U-Net, ONNX policy) are versioned, signed, and field-updatable without airframe changes (DDR-03 software refresh path); the safety kernel is change-controlled separately.
- Instrumented, replayable logs feed the live shoot-off evidence base and the reuse-cycle / turnaround demonstration (DDR-19, doc 17/18).
7. Compute hosting, data bus & HPM hardening (interface to doc 13)
- The compute module + safety MCU + FCU live in the Faraday-shielded avionics bay (DDR-10, doc 00 §3.1). All internal high-rate data (camera → compute) runs on optical/fiber links inside the shield to defeat HPM coupling; apertures are the only RF/optical penetrations and are filtered/limited.
- Power conditioning includes transient/EMP protection; the watchdog + immutable log support clean recovery from any induced reset (§6.3).
- This document owns the software/monitor side of HPM survivability (watchdog, deterministic recovery, log integrity); doc 13 owns the physical Faraday/optical-bus/filter design. The optical bus is also a reuse asset — no fragile copper harness to fatigue over 50 sorties of divert-g and capture loads (synergy noted in doc 13). Interface item flagged below.
8. Latency / throughput budget & timing
Control-loop budget (cruise/ingress and recovery approach), target one-way sense→act:
| Stage | Heritage reference | Target latency |
|---|---|---|
| Camera capture + ISP | global-shutter sensor | ~5–10 ms |
| Detection (INT8) | last_detect_time; YOLO 62 FPS heritage @100 TOPS → much faster on Thor-class |
≤ 15 ms |
| PnP / segmentation pose (target or recovery wire) | last_pnp_time (heritage <1 ms PnP) |
≤ 5 ms |
| State fusion (EKF step) | InertialIntegrator.step (µs-class) |
≤ 2 ms |
| Guidance (MPC, amortized) | AttitudeMPC.solve (warm-start) |
≤ 10 ms (runs 20–50 Hz, not in inner loop) |
| Inner control (ONNX) | NeuralController |
≤ 3 ms |
| MAVLink dispatch to FCU | send_attitude* |
≤ 2 ms |
| Perception→guidance path | VisionPipeline.inference_latency_ms |
≤ 30 ms (≥30 Hz) [TBR] |
| Recovery fine-pose loop (terminal) | PnP/seg on wire fiducial | 30–60 Hz [TBR] |
| Inner stabilization loop | rate mode | 100–250 Hz |
Why latency is the whole point (DDR-01). A radio/fiber datalink adds round-trip propagation + relay + operator-reaction latency and a jam surface. The onboard loop above closes in tens of milliseconds with no link in the path — Palmer's "cheaper, better, faster, more resilient" [14:46] is literally a latency + jam-surface argument, and the onboard architecture wins on both. Inner-loop stabilization runs at heritage-proven hundreds of Hz; perception/guidance at ≥30 Hz, ample for a Group-3 fixed-wing whose dynamics are far slower than the 30 m/s racing quad the stack already handles — and the recovery fine-pose loop runs faster in the terminal seconds because the Thor-class headroom (§3.2) lets it.
Thermal/throttling. Module runs at a power set-point below max (§3.2) to hold timing under thermal soak at ceiling/desert conditions and to preserve component life across ≥ 50 reuse sorties; the safety monitor treats sustained thermal throttle as a degrade trigger and a reuse-life data point. [TBR thermal model, doc 13/11 interface.]
9. Key trades & assumptions
| Trade | Options | Decision | Rationale / DDR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nav source | GPS/INS · RF datalink relay · vision+inertial+map | Vision+inertial+map, RF opportunistic only | DDR-01/02/04; heritage proves GPS-denied flight outbound and inbound. |
| Depth sensing | stereo · LiDAR · radar · monocular PnP + VIO | Monocular PnP + VIO | No depth sensor needed (heritage); lower cost/SWaP/part-count; works on target and recovery wire; DDR-03/17. |
| Compute class | heritage ~100 TOPS (competition-mandated) · ~200–275 TOPS · Thor-class ~1000–2000 TOPS | Thor-class, best-in-class | Unconstrained by AIGP HW; buys recovery + scene-match + safety-partition headroom + reuse-life margin at <1.3% of \$150k flyaway (still a rounding error, DDR-03). Heritage Orin kept as proof + fallback second-source. |
| Recovery autonomy | external RF/GPS-guided net · operator manual recovery · onboard vision-guided capture (heritage PnP/seg loop) | Onboard vision-guided Skyhook capture / spot landing | DDR-15 reusability + DDR-01/04 no-RF; a recovery you can jam is not a recovery. Reuses the proven gate-approach algorithm. |
| Controller | pure RL · pure MPC · MPC + ONNX inner + reactive fallback | Layered, with deterministic fallback ladder | Performance + assurance; heritage GatePursuit→MPC→Neural; DDR-18. |
| Autonomy authority | full auto-release · man-in-loop only · bounded auto + human-on-loop + ROE kernel | Bounded-autonomy kernel | DDR-18 "dumb AI" mitigation; lawful, auditable. |
| Module sourcing | single sole-source · two qualified COTS families (Thor + Orin) | Dual-source, TOPS-agnostic toolchain | DDR-20 allied production; DDR-03 Moore's-law refresh by recompile. |
Sim-to-real (DDR-19). The ONNX policy and detectors are trained/validated in the heritage 6-DOF sim (sim_drone/DroneRaceEnv) lineage, then domain-randomized and HWIL-tested. We do not present sim performance as flight-validated; all autonomy KPPs — including recovery-CEP and turnaround/reuse metrics — are demonstrated at the instrumented shoot-off and reuse-cycle demo (doc 17/18). No validated flight-test results are claimed here; figures are heritage-stack (sim) measurements and first-order estimates.
Assumptions. (a) Onboard reference map (recon imagery + landmark DB + DEM) and surveyed recovery-site/Skyhook geometry are available for the mission area pre-launch [TBD source/update cadence]. (b) Tactical-grade MEMS IMU available within SWaP/cost. (c) FCU is a hardened PX4/ArduPilot-class autopilot speaking MAVLink v2 (heritage interface). (d) Terminal and recovery accuracy is sensor/fiducial-limited once the target or wire is in FOV, decoupling it from en-route absolute-position error. (e) Recovery system hardware (Skyhook mast + cable + capture mechanism; parachute+airbag alternate) and its capture envelope are owned by doc 18; this doc owns only the autonomy that hits it.
10. Open issues / [TBR]
- [TBR] En-route position-error budget (free-inertial drift + VIO + fix cadence) → CEP vs surveyed truth over the 1,500–2,500 km radius; depends on IMU grade and terrain feature density.
- [TBR] Perception→guidance end-to-end latency on the selected Thor-class module at WILDFIRE input resolution (heritage was 640×360); confirm ≥30 Hz with ≥50% cruise headroom.
- [TBR] Detection P_d / P_fa and geolocation CEP for mission target set across lighting/obscurant; drives EO/IR vs visible balance.
- [TBR / DDR-15] Recovery-CEP (lateral/vertical placement vs the Skyhook wire) and the capture envelope the autonomy must hit — joint with doc 18 (recovery hardware) and doc 17 (capture trials). Wave-off re-attempt count N and alternate-mode trigger logic [TBD].
- [TBR / DDR-15] Recovery health-state monitor coverage and thresholds (what fitness data gates a capture vs forces a divert); its mass/power adder; tie to ≤ 30-min turnaround go/no-go and ≥ 50-sortie reuse-life accounting (doc 18).
- [TBR] Safety-kernel assurance level and partitioning HW (separate safety MCU vs partitioned Thor core) and its mass/power/cost adder.
- [TBR] Scene/map-match robustness to seasonal/lighting/terrain change; map update mechanism and storage size (recovery-site map included).
- [TBR / interface] Faraday bay + internal optical data bus physical design and HPM transient recovery timing — owned by doc 13; software watchdog/recovery owned here.
- [TBD] RF-silent vs link-up human-on-the-loop ROE policy split — owned by CONOPS (doc 04) and T&E (doc 17); autonomy implements whatever ROE is set.
- [TBR] Thor-class module thermal envelope at ceiling/desert and its life under reuse cycling; throttle behavior — interface to doc 11 (power) / doc 13 (thermal) / doc 18 (reuse life).
- [TBR] Thor-class volume unit pricing trend (used \$1,000–2,000 estimate); confirm against automotive AD silicon roadmap (DDR-03 Moore's-law).
Budget contribution
Mass (kg) — ~3.4 kg total (contribution to WILDFIRE 175 kg MTOW; airframe Faraday-bay structure is doc 13/10):
| Item | Mass (kg) |
|---|---|
| COTS compute module (Thor-class, carrier) | 1.0 |
| Safety MCU + I/O / power-conditioning board | 0.3 |
| FCU (autopilot) + dual MEMS IMU | 0.3 |
| 3–6 global-shutter cameras + lenses + mounts (incl. aft/down recovery field) | 0.9 |
| EO/IR gimbal electronics/interface share (gimbal mass in doc 14) | 0.2 |
| Internal optical/fiber data harness + connectors | 0.4 |
| Compute-bay cold plate / heat spreader (sensor side; bay shield in doc 13) | 0.3 |
| Total (autonomy/compute electronics) | ~3.4 |
Note: ~3.4 kg is ~1.9% of the 175 kg MTOW, well within envelope. Slightly heavier than the legacy estimate because of the Thor-class module + the extra camera field for recovery; cameras/EO-IR interface split with doc 14 (payload) and doc 13 (survivability) to avoid double-counting. [TBR by mass rollup, doc 03.]
Power (cruise / peak): ~95 W / ~190 W
| Item | Cruise (W) | Peak (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Compute module (Thor-class, sub-max set-point / full terminal+recovery load) | 55 | 110 |
| Safety MCU + FCU + IMUs | 8 | 12 |
| Cameras + ISP (3–6 + recovery field) | 14 | 22 |
| EO/IR gimbal electronics share (motors/full in doc 14) | 12 | 30 |
| Data bus / misc | 6 | 16 |
| Total | ~95 | ~190 |
Peak coincides with the terminal/recovery phase (full detector + segmentation + gimbal tracking + evasion or wire-capture loop). Higher than the legacy ~70/140 W because the Thor-class module draws more — still a small slice of the generator/electrical budget (doc 11). [TBR by integration; interface to doc 11 electrical budget.]
Unit cost (volume): ~\$2,600 (contribution to ≤ \$150k flyaway; compute is the rounding error per DDR-03):
| Item | Cost (\$) |
|---|---|
| COTS compute module (Thor-class, volume) | 1,000–2,000 (use 1,500) |
| Safety MCU + boards + power conditioning | 150 |
| FCU + dual MEMS IMU | 300 |
| Cameras (global-shutter, 3–6 incl. recovery field) | 350 |
| Optical data harness + connectors + cold plate | 300 |
| Total (excl. EO/IR gimbal → doc 14) | ~\$2,600 |
Compute module alone = ~1.0–1.3% of the \$150k flyaway; full autonomy electronics ≈ 1.7%. Best-in-class compute is therefore still a rounding error against the airframe (DDR-03), and architected TOPS-agnostic so next-cycle modules cut this further. EO/IR gimbal hardware costed in doc 14.
Reuse impact (DDR-15): - The autonomy stack is the enabler of reusability, not a consumable: it owns the autonomous precision recovery flight phase (Skyhook capture / spot landing, §5.5) and the recovery health-state go/no-go + reuse-qualification logging (§6.2-6, A-8/A-9) that make "the airframe + seeker + compute come back" (DDR-15 [20:29]) actually happen with no RF/GPS. - Cost-per-sortie: the ~\$2,600 of autonomy electronics is a recovered, reused asset. Amortized over the ≥ 50-sortie reuse-life target, the autonomy/compute contribution to cost-per-sortie is ~\$52/sortie (compute module alone ~\$30/sortie) — negligible against the ≤ ~\$3k/sortie airframe-amortized + fuel + munition target. - Turnaround (≤ 30 min): the immutable health/turnaround log (§6.2-7) feeds an automated go/no-go that supports the fast turnaround; no autonomy task should gate the 30-min turnaround beyond a software self-test + log readout [TBR with doc 18]. - Reuse life (≥ 50 sorties): module runs sub-max for thermal/fatigue life; optical bus (no fragile copper) and snap-in LRU survive divert-g and capture loads; carrier-board fatigue stress-screen flagged to doc 18. The recovery wave-off / health-no-go logic specifically protects the airframe from a damaging capture — preserving reuse life is a safety-kernel function.
Assumptions / [TBR]: Thor-class COTS module pricing at volume per DDR-03 (\$1,000–2,000, used \$1,500) [TBR vs automotive AD roadmap]; dual-source qualified with heritage Orin as fallback (DDR-20). Mass/power/cost interfaces with doc 11 (electrical), doc 13 (Faraday bay/thermal), doc 14 (EO/IR gimbal), and doc 18 (recovery hardware + reuse-life) flagged to avoid double-counting. Recovery-CEP, capture envelope, health-monitor thresholds, and the 50-sortie/30-min reuse metrics are design targets, validated at the instrumented shoot-off + reuse-cycle demo (DDR-19, doc 17/18) — no validated flight-test results are claimed. Items marked [TBR] in §10 gate final budget closure.
§ 08Sensor Package — EO/IR · GPS-denied PNT · SAR · SIGINT
SENSORS▾
Sensor Package — EO/IR · GPS-denied PNT · SAR · SIGINT
SENSORSDocument owner: Sensors / Mission-Systems subsystem
Parent baseline: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3.1 (WILDFIRE AGP-1 LOCKED Rev B.1 envelope); 12_autonomy_compute_software.md (autonomy/nav core); 14_payload_effects.md (CPI + 25 kg bay); 02_design_driver_register.md (DDR/REQ traceability).
Status: Concept design. All SWaP-C numbers are design targets/vendor-published figures; quote-dependent and physics-dependent items carry [TBR] / [TBD]. No validated WILDFIRE flight-test results are claimed.
Date / currency: Selections current as of June 2026 (2025–2026 products and programs).
What this document is. It replaces the AIGP drone-racing camera set — a competition-legal stack of a forward racing camera, a Jetson Orin NX, a dual MEMS IMU, baro, and optical flow chosen to fly through 1.5 m gates under contest rules — with a real, current sensor package — US Air Force-first (Collaborative Combat Aircraft–adjacent) and joint-capable: a fielded EO/IR + laser-designator gimbal, a layered GPS-denied PNT stack, a low-SWaP threat-warning head, and optional SAR/GMTI and SIGINT/EW mission modules that ride the 25 kg payload bay. The organizing rule is DDR-17 — "Don't build the Batmobile": latest-and-greatest at cost, US-origin or close-allied, COTS/fielded or near-fielded, MOSA-compliant, and exportable where possible.
Service posture (Rev B.1): WILDFIRE is Air Force-first (CCA-adjacent) and joint. Several recommended sensors are validated on US Army programs (e.g., FTUAS) — those Army-fielding references appear below strictly as maturity / fielding evidence, not service lock-in. The same MOSA-compliant package serves USAF, Army, USMC, SOCOM, and allied operators.
0. DDR traceability (what this document satisfies)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey, timestamp) | How this document responds |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-02 | [16:01] "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… the way a pilot would… look out the window." | The whole PNT layer (§4) is passive vision-first: multi-camera VIO + terrain/scene-referenced absolute fixing (Vantor Raptor / SSCI ImageNav) on the existing EO/IR + nav cameras, coasted by a photonic-gyro IMU (ANELLO X3). No GPS or RF on the nav critical path. Satisfies REQ-02a (en-route vision nav) and REQ-02b (terminal optical homing via Prism SKR). |
| DDR-03 | [15:48] "a \$300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price… two Moore's-law cycles from being much cheaper." | All perception/ATR/scene-match/seeker software (Raptor, ImageNav, Prism SKR) runs on the Thor-class edge AI already in the airframe (~1–2k TOPS, 12_… §3). Software adds ~0 SWaP; the sensors feed it. Compute is never the cost or power driver. |
| DDR-04 | [16:20] "jam-proof… kill the RF dependency, not just the comms." | Every primary sensor is passive or single-platform: EO/IR (passive), Raptor/ImageNav (passive vision), ANELLO X3 (self-contained inertial), threat-warning LWR (passive), and — for the EW module — ASI SNITCH single-platform 3D DF that geolocates with no GPS and no datalink. Active emitters (SAR, laser designator) are mission-elective and duty-cycled, never required for navigation. |
| DDR-11 | [18:35] terminal kinetic evasion ("dodge" motor) | The threat-warning head (§5) — a low-SWaP laser-warning receiver plus the EO/IR seeker's wide-FOV missile-approach detection on the Thor AI — is what cues the DDR-11 divert. Threat detect → classify → divert decision is an onboard, passive, no-RF loop. |
| DDR-13 | [19:06] "carries a useful payload the whole way." | The entire primary sensor suite (gimbal + PNT + threat-warning) is ≤ ~4.6 kg and lives in the avionics/seeker volume, not the 25 kg payload bay. SAR/GMTI and SIGINT/EW are optional mission modules that consume a fraction of the 25 kg, leaving margin for effects. §6, §7. |
| DDR-17 | [36:54–37:41] "focus on things that are actually in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed… don't build the Batmobile." | Every line item is fielded or near-fielded, US-origin or close-allied, MOSA. We buy the lighter variant (HD59-MLVS not WESCAM MX-8D; NSP-3 not Lynx; software-only nav not a star tracker baseline). §8 kills the gold-plated candidates (heavy turrets, manned-aircraft MAWS, $270k star tracker). |
| DDR-14 | [17:02] open data standard, sensor=effector | All sensors expose data over MOSA/open interfaces (MISB-compliant H.264/H.265 video, STANAG 4586 C2, SOSA/CMOSS-aligned cards, ASPN/VICTORY for PNT). One WILDFIRE's ISR/SAR/SIGINT track can cue another's munition. §2, §9. |
| DDR-10 | [18:17] HPM/EMP hardening | Sensor electronics sit inside the Faraday volume; camera/gimbal high-rate data crosses the bulkhead on optical links (no copper data breach), per 12_… §8 and 14_… §5.3. Apertures are filtered/limited. |
1. Rationale — why we are replacing the AIGP camera-only suite
1.1 What the old suite was, and why it is inadequate for WILDFIRE
The inherited AIGP stack (see 12_autonomy_compute_software.md) was a drone-racing perception set: one forward global-shutter racing camera, a Jetson Orin NX (~100 TOPS, forced by contest rules), a dual MEMS IMU, a baro, and an optical-flow module — about 3.4 kg total, ~$2.6k of electronics plus a ~$1,150 COTS uncooled-LWIR+EO ball. It exists to fly a quadcopter through 1.5 m gates at 30 m/s with no GPS and no depth sensor. That is a genuine existence proof for the GPS-denied vision-nav brain (12_… §2) — and we keep the architecture — but it is not a military sensor package:
- No targeting-grade EO/IR. A racing camera cannot identify, range, or designate a vehicle-class target at tactical standoff, day/night/obscurant. There is no cooled MWIR, no SWIR See-Spot, no laser rangefinder, no STANAG laser designator.
- No absolute, terrain-referenced GPS-denied fix. Pure VIO drifts. The old stack bounded drift with gate PnP — fine for a known course, useless over 600 km of unmapped terrain. WILDFIRE needs scene/terrain-referenced absolute positioning to navigate "like a pilot" across a real AO (DDR-02).
- MEMS-only inertial. Tactical MEMS bias (~1–3 deg/hr) drifts too fast to coast between sparse fixes over feature-poor terrain. WILDFIRE wants a photonic-gyro core (<0.5 deg/hr) so a fix every few minutes is enough.
- No threat warning. Nothing cues the DDR-11 divert. A racing drone does not need to know it is being lased.
- No mission ISR/EW growth. No SAR for all-weather targeting; no SIGINT/EW for the SEAD/contested-ISR mission the Army actually buys.
1.2 "Latest and greatest at cost" — the selection rule
Per DDR-17, "best-in-class" is bounded by fundability and fieldability. We therefore prefer, in order: (1) US-origin (clean ITAR/Buy-American posture, lowest Army-integration friction); (2) close-allied only where it buys a real capability the US line cannot (and we flag the export exposure); (3) COTS / fielded or near-fielded (low qualification risk); (4) MOSA / modular-open (SOSA/CMOSS cards, ASPN/VICTORY PNT, STANAG 4586 C2, MISB video) so payloads swap without an airframe redesign — the explicit Army FTUAS Increment 2 expectation; (5) lighter/cheaper variant wins when it meets the requirement (the HD59 over the WESCAM MX-8D; the NSP-3 over the Lynx). We do not gold-plate: no manned-aircraft MAWS suite, no $270k star tracker in the baseline, no 50 kg SAR.
1.3 Army relevance & MOSA
Every primary pick is on, or adjacent to, an Army-relevant program path: - Trillium gimbals are the sole gimbal on BOTH Army FTUAS Increment 2 finalists (Griffon Valiant, Textron Aerosonde) — the HD59-MLVS is the new, lighter, 4-sensor+designator member of that combat-mature family. - IMSAR is actively engaging Army PM UAS (2026 S/VTOL Summit) and its NSP-5 is a Navy/USMC program of record (AN/DPY-2). - ASI SNITCH and CACI Pit Viper / Spectral Sieve were demonstrated in Army Project Convergence experiments in GPS-denied conditions on UAS. - Vantor Raptor mirrors what the Army just fielded on the AEVEX Atlas LE-SR ("visual navigation with alternate PNT") and aligns with the Army's MAPS/DAPS sensor-fusion + ASPN/VICTORY philosophy. - Teledyne FLIR Prism SKR is fielded on the Project Artemis "Cinder" loitering munition for GPS/RF-denied optical homing.
The package is packaged as SOSA-aligned 3U OpenVPX cards, exposes PNT over ASPN/VICTORY and C2 over STANAG 4586, and uses MISB-compliant video — the credible basis for a "MOSA / FTUAS-compatible" claim. (MOSA is a standard, not a part — see caveat §10.)
2. Package architecture (one picture)
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
PASSIVE APERTURES │ THOR-CLASS EDGE AI (~1–2k TOPS) │ ← doc 12 §3
(no RF on nav path) │ (sensors feed software; ~0 added SWaP) │
│ │
┌───────────────┐ │ • Raptor / ImageNav → absolute pose (PNT) │
│ EO/IR GIMBAL │──MISB─►│ • VIO EKF (multi-cam) → relative pose │
│ HD59-MLVS │ H.265 │ • Prism SKR ATR/ReID → target ID + homing │ ← terminal (DDR-02b)
│ MWIR+LWIR+EO+ │ │ • Missile-approach detect (wide-FOV IR) │ ─┐
│ SWIR+LDR/LRF │ │ • LWR fusion → DIVERT cue (DDR-11) │ │ cue
└───────────────┘ │ │ ▼
┌───────────────┐ │ ┌──────────────┐
│ 3–6 NAV CAMS │──opt──►│ │ DDR-11 │
│ (global shut.)│ fiber │ │ DODGE motor │ ← doc 13
└───────────────┘ │ └──────────────┘
┌───────────────┐ │ PNT FUSION (ASPN/VICTORY):
│ ANELLO X3 IMU │──────► │ vision-fix ⊕ VIO ⊕ photonic-gyro inertial
│ (photonic gyro)│ │ = GPS-denied position (DDR-02/04)
└───────────────┘ │
┌───────────────┐ │
│ LWR head(s) │──────► │ passive laser-warning (LRF/LTD/LBR)
└───────────────┘ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
(PRIMARY SUITE — avionics/seeker volume, ≤ ~4.6 kg, NOT the 25 kg bay)
──────────────────────── 25 kg MODULAR PAYLOAD BAY (CPI, doc 14) ────────────────────
OPTIONAL MISSION MODULES (one at a time, mission-kitted):
• IMSAR NSP-3 — Ku-band SAR/GMTI all-weather targeting (2.7 kg / 74 W)
• ASI SNITCH — SIGINT/ELINT + single-platform GPS-independent DF/geoloc (1.6 kg / 40 W)
3. PRIMARY EO/IR + laser designator/rangefinder gimbal
This is the single highest-value buy: the targeting-grade "eyeball" that does day/night/obscurant ID, ranging, and laser designation, and that feeds the terminal optical homing (DDR-02b). It is a recovered, reused asset — Palmer's "I'm not throwing away my seeker" (DDR-15) — so its per-sortie amortized cost ≈ 0.
| Recommended (baseline) | Cheaper alternate | Premium alternate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | Trillium HD59-MLVS | Teledyne FLIR StormCaster-DX + Hadron 640R | Trillium HD80-MVS |
| Vendor / origin | Trillium Eng. (AeroVironment co.), Hood River OR — USA | Teledyne FLIR Defense — USA | Trillium Eng. (AeroVironment co.) — USA |
| Sensors | Cooled MWIR + LWIR + HD EO + SWIR See-Spot (4-sensor) | Dual LWIR (Boson 640) + OEM EO core | Cooled MWIR + 30× EO + SWIR See-Spot |
| Laser | STANAG 50 mJ designator + LRF + pointer | STANAG designator + LRF (no full ISR turret) | STANAG 50 mJ designator + pointer (LRF opt.) |
| Mass | 1.95 kg | ~1.25 + 0.06 kg ≈ 1.3 kg | 5.35 kg |
| Power | [TBR] — not published (est. ~40–70 W) [quote] | [TBR] | [TBR] |
| Cost | [TBR] — est. ~$150k–$300k+ band [quote] | [TBR] — lowest of the three | [TBR] — > HD59 (HD80-VV EO-only public price $105,000, was $148,400) |
| Origin/export | US, ITAR USML Cat XII | US, ITAR Cat XII | US, ITAR Cat XII |
| Maturity | Near-fielded COTS, released Sep 2025; HD80 family on both Army FTUAS finalists | Fielded COTS (2022), on R80D SkyRaider | Fielded / program-of-record (FTUAS gimbal family) |
| Citation | [T1][T2] | [T3][T4] | [T5][T6] |
Why the HD59-MLVS. It is the single best WILDFIRE fit and the clearest "latest-and-greatest at cost" answer: all four wavebands plus a STANAG designator + LRF in 1.95 kg — a tiny fraction of the 25 kg budget, leaving mass/power for the Thor AI and effects. It is US-origin, just released (Sep 2025), MISB-compliant, IP65, and built for onboard AI/ML edge processing and scene/target tracking — which dovetails with WILDFIRE's Thor-class AI and Prism SKR homing. The HD80 family already won onto both Army FTUAS finalists, so the line is combat-program-mature and exportable as a US product.
Why the cheaper alt. If cost or weight must be cut hard, a StormCaster-DX (1.25 kg) delivers a STANAG designator + dual-LWIR targeting and ATAK integration for a Group-1/2-class price; paired with a Hadron 640R OEM core (640×512 LWIR + 64 MP visible, 56 g, ~$3–6k) it gives EO + thermal + designation at the lowest cost and SWaP — at the price of no cooled MWIR/SWIR and no full ISR turret (LWIR-only ID range is shorter).
Why the premium alt. The HD80-MVS (5.35 kg) trades weight for a larger aperture (longer designation/ID standoff) and is the exact FTUAS-fielded family — lowest qualification risk if standoff is prioritized over weight. The only public price anchor in the entire package is its EO-only sibling HD80-VV at $105,000 (reduced from $148,400) at reseller Wildflower International — useful for the cost conversation, but the 4-sensor+designator build is materially higher and must be quoted.
Rejected as baseline (gold-plating, DDR-17): L3Harris WESCAM MX-8D — excellent 6-sensor designating turret but Canadian-origin (8.11 kg), GPS-reliant MX-GEO geolocation, heavier and likely costlier [W1]. Octopus Epsilon 175 (2.6 kg) is a fine 4-sensor MWIR/EO ball but has no STANAG designator in standard config and is EU-manufactured (Riga) under a US parent (dual export exposure) [E1].
Critical caveat (do not over-credit the turret). The HD59 vendor page publishes only ~0.5° total system accuracy and an onboard/dual-GPS heading; the often-cited "~6 m CE90 GPS-denied geopointing" is OVERSTATED — that figure traces to GPS/INS-aided MX-GEO-style lineage. For WILDFIRE's true no-GPS case, target geolocation must be fed by the airframe's own GPS-denied nav (§4) — treat the gimbal as sensor + designator, and the GPS-denied targeting solution as a system-integration task on the Thor AI, not a turret feature you can buy. Also note onboard AI/ML on the HD59 is partly roadmap ("coming soon"). [T1, VERIFICATION]
4. GPS-DENIED NAVIGATION SUITE (delivers DDR-02 / DDR-04)
A two-layer, vision-first stack — exactly the Army's own layered/sensor-fusion philosophy — fused on the Thor AI. Layer A gives absolute, terrain-referenced fixes (zero added SWaP — software on the existing cameras). Layer B is the inertial/dead-reckoning core that coasts accurately between fixes. The multi-camera VIO front-end is inherited from the AIGP heritage stack (12_… §5).
| Role | Recommended (baseline) | Cheaper alternate | Premium alternate | Mass | Power | Cost | Origin / maturity | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 — Absolute fix (scene/terrain-referenced) | Vantor (Maxar) Raptor (Guide + Sync) — software | (n/a — already ~free) | SSCI ImageNav (DoD/weapon pedigree, EO-or-IR) | ~0 kg (software) | [TBR] (rides Thor) | [TBR] (license, quote) | USA; fielded SW, launched Mar 2025; <7 m aerial pos, <3 m target coords, day/night | [R1][R2] |
| A2 — Relative motion (VIO front-end) | 3–6 global-shutter nav cameras (heritage 12_… §5) |
— | — | (in 12_… ~0.9 kg) |
(in 12_…) |
(in 12_…) |
COTS; heritage-proven | [12] |
| B — Inertial / dead-reckon core | ANELLO X3 IMU (SiPhOG photonic gyro) | Honeywell HGuide HG4930 (MEMS, export-free) | ANELLO Aerial INS (integrated, ships Q2 2026) | 0.18–0.23 kg | ~4 W (<5 W) | [TBR] (quote; low-mid 4-fig, << FOG) | USA; COTS; bias <0.5 °/hr | [A1][A2] |
| Optional — Celestial aid (growth) | (none in baseline) | — | Sodern Astradia day/night star tracker | <3 kg | 20 W | ~$270k | France (allied); defer — alone exceeds flyaway | [S1] |
Recommended baseline = Raptor + ANELLO X3, fused on the Thor AI. Raptor is the strongest cost/SWaP fit: software-only (zero added mass/power), US-origin, MOSA-friendly, demonstrated <7 m aerial position and 3 m target-coordinate extraction day/night, and it doubles as a targeting aid (feeding the §3 gimbal the GPS-denied geolocation the turret cannot self-generate). The ANELLO X3 (photonic SiPhOG, <0.5 °/hr, ~4 W, US silicon, export-friendlier than FOG) coasts accurately between vision fixes and replaces the heritage MEMS-only core — turning the 12_… drift budget from "fix every few seconds" to "fix every few minutes," which is what makes nav over feature-sparse terrain credible.
- Cheaper: drop to Honeywell HGuide HG4930 (tactical MEMS, ~0.25 °/hr, <3 W, integrable without export license — a real advantage) and lean harder on the vision layer.
- Premium / dual-source: SSCI ImageNav is the close second for the absolute-fix role — stronger DoD/weapon pedigree (USAF GBU-39 integration), EO-OR-IR flexibility, edge-resident; worth dual-sourcing or trading at the demo. The ANELLO Aerial INS (integrated INS/GNSS, production Q2 2026) is the natural inertial upgrade once it ships.
- Defer (DDR-17): the Sodern Astradia star tracker is the cleanest passive absolute-attitude aid, but ~$270k alone busts the $130k flyaway target, and its 0–+30 °C operating range is narrow. Keep celestial/star-tracker and Safran HRG as documented future / high-survivability growth, not Rev B.1 baseline.
GPS-denied caveats. Raptor/ImageNav are scene/terrain-referenced — accuracy depends on having current 3D reference coverage for the AO (Raptor's catalog is 100M+ sq km but not global) and adequate scene texture; both degrade over open water, desert, snow, and dense uniform canopy, and with strong seasonal/lighting change. The ANELLO "10 km / sub-100 m" and "smallest/lightest" claims are vendor marketing, untested on WILDFIRE. The en-route position-error budget (free-inertial drift + VIO + fix cadence → CEP) remains [TBR] by HWIL/flight test (carried from
12_…§10). A passive, anti-spoof-monitored GPS may ride as an opportunistic, never-trusted-alone fix — never on the critical path (DDR-04).
5. THREAT-WARNING (cues the DDR-11 divert)
The cost-disciplined path is US-origin, MOSA software on the Thor AI plus a minimal low-SWaP laser-warning head — not a manned-aircraft missile-approach suite (DDR-17 / DDR-11). Two cues feed the divert decision: (1) a passive laser-warning receiver (LWR) that detects/classifies the LRF/LTD/LBR threat set, and (2) missile-approach detection exploiting the §3 EO/IR seeker's wide-FOV IR imagery on the Thor AI (no added aperture unless testing shows the seeker FOV is insufficient).
| Role | Recommended (baseline) | Cheaper alternate | Premium alternate | Mass | Power | Cost | Origin / maturity | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laser warning (LRF/LTD/LBR) | Low-SWaP US LWR head (NG AN/AVR-2 airborne lineage class), tuned to the FY26 VPS-LWR threat set | single-quadrant LWR head | distributed multi-head 360° LWR | ~sub-kg/head (~0.3–0.8) [TBR] | ~<2.5 W/head [TBR] | [TBR] (quote) | USA; airborne LWR lineage fielded; FY26 RFI active | [L1][L2] |
| Missile-approach detect | EO/IR seeker wide-FOV IR + Thor AI (no new hardware) | — | + single MWIR warning aperture if seeker FOV insufficient | ~0 kg (reuses §3) | (on Thor) | ~0 | USA; software | [P1] |
| Terminal ATR / homing (jam-proof) | Teledyne FLIR Prism SKR (perception ATR + ReID, runs on Thor) | Auterion Skynode-S terminal-guidance approach (not the 2.3-TOPS brick) | — | ~0 kg (SW on Thor) | (on Thor) | [TBR] (OEM license) | USA; fielded on Project Artemis "Cinder", upgrade Apr 2026 | [P1][P2] |
Why this shape. Prism SKR is the single highest-value terminal buy: it delivers GPS-DENIED/RF-OPTIONAL terminal target ID and last-meters homing "like a pilot," is WOSA/MOSA, US-origin, software-licensed (negligible SWaP), and runs on the existing Thor edge AI. It pairs with the §3 FLIR-compatible cores and the EO seeker. For dedicated warning, a single low-SWaP US LWR head tuned to the current Army LRF/LTD/LBR set (defined in the FY26 VPS-LWR RFI) is the cost-aware pick — note the RFI's ≤11.34 kg / <100 W numbers are a GROUND-VEHICLE ceiling and an Army requirement, NOT a flyable product spec; an airborne head is far lighter (sub-kg, single-digit watts).
Defer (DDR-17 — built for the wrong platform): BAE 2CAWS (US, fielded, 400 delivered) and Elbit PAWS-2 (Israeli) are mature 2-color/MWIR MAWS engineered for helicopters/manned fixed-wing with multi-aperture cooled-IR suites — porting either to a 175 kg Group-3 UAS likely busts the SWaP and cost budget. Exploit the seeker + edge AI for missile-approach detection instead; add at most one warning aperture if testing demands it.
Caveat — real gap. No dedicated low-SWaP UAS MAWS with public specs was found for June 2026; HENSOLDT/AVILUS AMPS-M (German, Oct 2025) is the closest UAV self-protection offering but is foreign-origin and unpriced. This category may need Army-spec development rather than a clean COTS buy — carried as [TBR].
6. OPTIONAL MISSION-MODULE SENSORS (ride the 25 kg payload bay)
These are mission-kitted, one-at-a-time modules installed at the FOB on the Common Payload Interface (14_… §5). They are recovered and reused (DDR-15), and each consumes only a fraction of the 25 kg — leaving margin for a munition or fuel.
6.1 SAR / GMTI (all-weather targeting)
| Recommended | Premium / upgrade | Allied fallback | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | IMSAR NSP-3 | IMSAR NSP-5 (pod) | Leonardo PicoSAR (AESA) |
| Origin | USA (Springville, UT) | USA | Italy/UK (allied) |
| Modes | SAR, GMTI, DMTI, MMTI, ISAR, CCD; SAR res 0.1–10 m, range 3–13 km @1 m; GMTI ~6.5 km; maritime ~77 nm | SAR/GMTI/MMTI/CCD; rugged MIL-Spec quick-mount pod; longer range | AESA SAR + GMTI, electronic scan |
| Mass / power | 2.7 kg / 74 W | 7.5 kg / 130 W | ~10 kg / [TBR] |
| Cost | [TBR] (quote; low-to-mid six figures class) | [TBR] | [TBR] |
| Maturity | Fielded COTS (Group 2–3), scaling to hundreds/yr | Program of record (AN/DPY-2, USN/USMC) | Fielded COTS |
| Cite | [I1][I2] | [I3][I4] | [I5] |
Why NSP-3. Clear cost-aware winner: 2.7 kg / 74 W leaves the large majority of the 25 kg and the power budget free for EO/IR + Thor AI; all-weather SAR/GMTI gives day/night/obscurant targeting a GPS-denied platform needs, and SAR imagery can in principle feed terrain/feature nav. IMSAR is engaging Army PM UAS now. Staying in the NSP family (NSP-3 → NSP-5 → NSP-7/8) gives a common software/MOSA growth path. Avoid GA-ASI Lynx (~52 kg), Northrop STARLite (~29 kg) and IAI EL/M-2054 (≥36 kg) — all exceed the payload and cost discipline (Group 4/5 "Batmobile").
6.2 SIGINT / EW (SEAD / contested-ISR)
| Recommended (passive ES/DF) | EA option (add or swap) | Allied fallback | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | ASI SNITCH (+ SNITCH-T) | CACI Pit Viper (ES + EA) | CRFS RFeye Node 100-18 LW |
| Origin | USA (Sterling, VA) | USA | UK (allied) |
| Capability | HF–18 GHz; 200 MHz IBW; single-platform 3D DF, geolocation with NO GPS / NO datalink; COMINT/ELINT | RF survey/ID/disruption (electronic attack); demonstrated GPS-denied on UAS | 9 kHz–18 GHz spectrum monitor, I/Q record, DF |
| Mass / power | 1.6 kg / 40 W (6 in dia × 7 in cyl) | [TBR] (SWaP-optimized) | 1.95 kg / 40 W (needs forced-air cooling) |
| Cost | [TBR] (quote) | [TBR] | [TBR] (tens of $k class) |
| Maturity | Fielded COTS; Army Project Convergence (GPS-denied) | Army-demonstrated (Project Convergence) | Fielded COTS; Army Tech Award 2024 |
| Cite | [N1][N2] | [C1][C2] | [F1] |
Why SNITCH. Best single-box fit for WILDFIRE's hard requirements: US-origin, MOSA, field-proven, HF–18 GHz with single-platform 3D DF and genuinely GPS-INDEPENDENT geolocation (no datalink dependency) at 1.6 kg / 40 W — the strongest match in the whole package to the RF-optional "look out the window" concept. It passively detects and geolocates jammers, counter-battery radar, and air-defense emitters for SEAD/contested-ISR. Add CACI Pit Viper when an organic electronic-attack contribution (RF disruption) is needed — SNITCH alone is passive. Avoid over-buying: CRFS is UK-origin and its single-platform geolocation is weaker; L3Harris Deceptor is promising but not yet a fielded SKU; Sky Spy Agent 001 is the lightest/cheapest but an early non-US startup (treat as experiment, not primary).
EW caveat. All US EW/SIGINT payloads are near-certainly ITAR/USML Cat XI — "exportable" is case-by-case. Most SWaP/price for the US-prime EW options (Pit Viper, Deceptor) is not public — quote-driven. Airborne-EW program-of-record timing (MFEW-Air Large) is unsettled.
7. Mission mapping (which sensors do what)
| Mission | Primary suite (always carried) | Bay module | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISR / find-fix-track | EO/IR HD59-MLVS (4-band ID), nav cameras, PNT stack | (none, or NSP-3 for all-weather/night-obscured) | Day/night/obscurant ID + precise geolocation via PNT-fed target coords (not the turret alone). |
| Strike (multirole) | HD59-MLVS + STANAG designator/LRF, Prism SKR terminal ATR/ReID, threat-warning + divert | (munition module, 14_…) |
Designate for laser-guided effect, or hand off to released munition's vision/IR seeker; airframe RTBs (DDR-15). Terminal geolocation = PNT + seeker, link-off. |
| GPS-denied transit / ingress-egress | Multi-cam VIO + Raptor/ImageNav absolute fix + ANELLO X3 inertial; EO/IR for landmarks/night | (none) | Coarse dead-reckon between fixes; sharp absolute fix every few minutes. Same loop flies the RTB / Skyhook recovery (12_…, 18_…). |
| EW / SEAD / SIGINT | Passive RF cueing + EO/IR cross-cue on Thor AI; PNT for own-position | ASI SNITCH (passive ES/DF + GPS-independent geoloc); + CACI Pit Viper for EA | Single-platform DF geolocates emitters with no GPS/datalink; cross-cue EO/IR for ID; optional jam. |
| Survive-to-return (all missions) | LWR head + seeker wide-FOV missile-approach detect → DDR-11 divert; HPM/EMP-hardened sensor electronics | — | Passive, onboard, no-RF threat→divert loop. |
8. Integration & budget deltas vs the old suite
8.1 Mass delta (contribution to the 175 kg MTOW)
The old AIGP-derived autonomy/sensor contribution was ~3.4 kg (12_… §11: Thor module + safety MCU + FCU + dual MEMS IMU + 3–6 cameras + a ~0.2 kg EO/IR interface share + harness). The new primary suite replaces the racing-camera EO/IR and the MEMS-only core with targeting-grade hardware, and adds a threat-warning head. Software items (Raptor, ImageNav, Prism SKR) add ~0 kg (run on Thor).
| Item | Old (AIGP-derived) | New (Rev B.1) | Δ mass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute (Thor) + safety MCU + FCU | ~1.7 kg (carried) | ~1.7 kg (unchanged) | 0 |
| Inertial core | dual MEMS IMU (~0.3 kg incl. FCU) | ANELLO X3 photonic IMU ~0.18–0.23 kg (+ a small MEMS for voting) | ≈ 0 |
| Nav cameras (global-shutter ×3–6) | ~0.9 kg | ~0.9 kg (unchanged) | 0 |
| EO/IR seeker | racing-grade EO/IR ball (~$1.15k, ~0.5–1.0 kg) | Trillium HD59-MLVS 4-sensor + designator/LRF | +1.95 kg turret (net +~1.0–1.5 kg over old ball) |
| Threat-warning LWR head | none | low-SWaP US LWR head | +~0.3–0.8 kg [TBR] |
| Baro / air-data / optical-flow | ~0.1 kg | ~0.1 kg (unchanged) | 0 |
| NEW PRIMARY SENSOR SUITE TOTAL | ~3.4 kg | ~4.4–4.6 kg [TBR] | +~1.0–1.2 kg |
The HD59 turret mass (1.95 kg) is split with the payload/survivability docs to avoid double-counting (the old §11 booked only a 0.2 kg "interface share"; the gimbal hardware lived in 14_…). On a like-for-like seeker-hardware basis the upgrade from a racing ball to a 4-band designating turret is ~+1.0–1.5 kg, plus the LWR head. Net primary-suite contribution ≈ 4.4–4.6 kg — about 2.5% of the 175 kg MTOW, comfortably inside the envelope that already closes at ~174.5 kg with positive margin (30_…, 02_… DDR-13).
Optional bay modules (one at a time) add 2.7 kg (NSP-3 SAR) or 1.6 kg (SNITCH EW) — well under the 25 kg payload bay, leaving ~22 kg for munition/fuel.
8.2 Power delta
The old autonomy/EO/IR load was ~35 W avg / ~60 W peak (11_… §6 line "EO/IR gimbal + nav cameras"; 12_… §11 ~35/60 W). The new suite's published power is gimbal [TBR]/quote (est. ~40–70 W class), ANELLO X3 ~4 W, LWR head ~few W, and the software runs on the already-budgeted Thor module.
| Suite element | Avg power | Peak power | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EO/IR HD59-MLVS gimbal | [TBR] (~40–70 W est., quote) | [TBR] | [T1] |
| ANELLO X3 IMU | ~4 W | <5 W | [A1] |
| Nav cameras + air-data | ~10 W | ~15 W | 12_… |
| LWR head(s) | ~few W | ~few W | [L1] |
| Software (Raptor/ImageNav/Prism SKR) | on Thor (budgeted) | on Thor | 12_… |
| New primary-suite estimate | ~55–90 W [TBR] | ~90–120 W [TBR] | — |
| Optional bay module | + NSP-3 74 W or SNITCH 40 W | + duty-cycled | [I1][N1] |
Against the airframe's ~1.0–1.2 kW generator vs ~621 W peak bus with ~1.6–1.9× margin (11_… §7), the new suite — even with an active SAR module at 74 W — fits the electrical budget with margin. Power is the biggest data gap: gimbal/EW W figures are unpublished and must be confirmed by quote/datasheet before the load list is locked (11_… open item #9). [TBR]
8.3 Cost delta and net to flyaway
| Old suite | New suite (baseline, primary only) | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EO/IR seeker | ~$1,150 (COTS uncooled ball) | HD59-MLVS [TBR] — est. ~$150k–$300k+ band, quote | large, quote-driven |
| Inertial core | ~$300 (MEMS) | ANELLO X3 [TBR] (low-mid 4-fig) | + small |
| Threat-warning LWR | $0 | LWR head [TBR] (quote) | + [TBR] |
| Nav software | $0 (heritage) | Raptor / ImageNav / Prism SKR licenses [TBR] | + [TBR] |
| Cameras / compute / misc | ~$2,300 | unchanged | 0 |
The cost honest-statement. Pricing is opaque. The only public unit price in the entire package is the EO-only Trillium HD80-VV at $105,000 (was $148,400); the 4-sensor+designator HD59-MLVS, every SAR, every EW box, and every nav license are quote-only [TBR]. A 4-band designating turret in the ~$150k–$300k+ band could approach or exceed the ~$130k flyaway target on its own — so the BOM line for the seeker is the single biggest cost-validation item. This is mitigated three ways: (1) the seeker is recovered and reused every sortie (DDR-15), so its per-sortie amortized cost ≈ 0 over a ≥50-sortie life — Palmer's "I'm not throwing away my seeker"; the flyaway "$130k" is the recoverable truck, and a one-time turret buy amortizes like the airframe, not like a consumable; (2) the cheaper StormCaster-DX + Hadron alt is available if a quote blows the budget; (3) compute/software remain a rounding error (DDR-03). The recommended action is single-source quote requests to Trillium (HD59-MLVS, HD80-MVS), IMSAR (NSP-3), ASI (SNITCH), ANELLO (X3), and Vantor/SSCI (Raptor/ImageNav) to convert every [TBR] into a number before BOM lock. The Sodern Astradia (~$270k) is excluded precisely because one sensor would bust the flyaway (DDR-17).
Payload-budget confirmation. Primary suite ~4.4–4.6 kg (avionics/seeker volume, not the bay) + one optional module (≤2.7 kg) ⇒ the 25 kg payload bay is essentially untouched by sensors, leaving ≥22 kg for munition/fuel. Fits DDR-13. Power fits with generator margin (§8.2). Mass fits the 175 kg MTOW that closes at ~174.5 kg with positive margin.
9. MOSA / interface posture
- Video: MISB-compliant H.264/H.265 from the gimbal and SAR (one common ground/relay decode path).
- C2 / payload control: STANAG 4586 — payloads change out, not the aircraft (FTUAS Inc 2 expectation).
- PNT: ASPN (open PNT/sensor-fusion) + VICTORY — aligns the nav fusion engine with the Army MAPS/DAPS architecture; vision-fix ⊕ VIO ⊕ inertial are interchangeable plug-in sources.
- Compute cards: SOSA-aligned 3U OpenVPX (CMOSS/CMFF program direction) — sensor-processing and EW/PNT on interchangeable cards.
- No proprietary stovepipe (REQ-14b): all external track-in / cue-out / C2 use published open standards so one WILDFIRE's ISR/SAR/SIGINT track cues another's munition.
- Internal data crosses the Faraday bulkhead optically (DDR-10) — no copper data breach for HPM.
MOSA is a standard, not a part (caveat). Claiming "MOSA compliant" requires designing the cards/chassis/interfaces to these specs and ideally a SOSA conformance assessment — it is not conferred by buying any single product above. Carried as a design/verification obligation.
10. Confidence, caveats, and open items
Overall confidence: HIGH on the core recommended products' identity and headline SWaP; LOW on price and on several power figures (quote-gated). Of 12 load-bearing claims verified against primary sources, 9 confirmed, 1 overstated (the HD59 "6 m CE90 GPS-denied" geopointing), 1 unverified-SWaP-only (OKSI), 0 false.
Carry-forward caveats (planners must hold these):
1. Don't credit the gimbal with turnkey GPS-denied targeting. HD59 publishes ~0.5° system accuracy + GPS-aided heading only; the "~6 m CE90 no-GPS" figure is overstated and GPS/INS-aided in lineage. True no-GPS targeting = system-integration on the Thor AI + §4 nav stack. HD59 onboard AI/ML is partly roadmap.
2. Pricing is opaque. Only HD80-VV ($105k, EO-only) and Astradia (~$270k, which busts flyaway) are public. Every 4-sensor/designator turret, SAR, EW box, and nav license is quote-only [TBR]. A six-figure seeker could approach the flyaway target — validate before commit (mitigated by reuse-amortization + cheaper alt).
3. Power (W) is unpublished for the gimbals and several EW boxes — the most important budget gap. Pull controlled datasheets / quotes before locking the 11_… load list.
4. GPS-denied vision nav degrades over feature-poor terrain (water, desert, snow, dense canopy) and depends on reference-data coverage for the AO (Raptor catalog is not global). En-route CEP is [TBR] by HWIL/flight.
5. ITAR/export is broad: Trillium/FLIR/ASI/CACI/L3Harris/IMSAR/Northrop are USML-controlled; WESCAM is Canadian (Controlled Goods + US ITAR subcomponents); Octopus Epsilon is EU-built under a US parent (dual exposure); Astradia/Safran are French. Laser designators and SIGINT/EW are the most tightly controlled — "exportable where possible" is case-by-case.
6. Vendor hype to discount: "combat-proven industry standard" (IMSAR), "world's smallest/lightest" (ANELLO, Octopus), "can't be jammed / fire-and-forget / drift-free" (Auterion, OKSI, Cinder), and Prism SKR decoy-discrimination — all marketing, lacking independent test data.
7. Maturity spread: HD59-MLVS, NSP-3/5, SNITCH, ANELLO X3, HG4930, WESCAM, Raptor are fielded/COTS; ANELLO Aerial INS ships Q2 2026, L3Harris Deceptor is not a fielded SKU, Cinder is a prototype, Sky Spy is an early non-US startup — integration risk on the newest items.
8. No low-SWaP UAS MAWS with public specs exists (June 2026) — threat-warning MAWS may need Army-spec development, not a COTS buy.
Open [TBR] / [TBD]:
- [TBR] Firm flyaway-config quotes: Trillium HD59-MLVS & HD80-MVS; IMSAR NSP-3; ASI SNITCH; ANELLO X3; Vantor Raptor & SSCI ImageNav licenses; LWR head; CACI Pit Viper.
- [TBR] Power draw (W) for the EO/IR gimbal and the EW modules → close the 11_… electrical load list (open item #9).
- [TBR] En-route GPS-denied position-error budget (CEP) vs terrain class; vision-fix cadence; ANELLO drift on WILDFIRE dynamics — by HWIL/flight (carried from 12_…).
- [TBR] Whether the EO/IR seeker wide-FOV IR is sufficient for missile-approach detection or one dedicated MWIR warning aperture is required — by test.
- [TBR] SOSA conformance assessment + ASPN/VICTORY/STANAG-4586/MISB interface design (MOSA is earned, not bought).
- [TBD] Reference-map / 3D-terrain coverage and update cadence for intended AOs (Raptor/ImageNav dependency).
- [TBR] LWR head exact SWaP and the current Army LRF/LTD/LBR threat parameters (FY26 VPS-LWR).
11. Citations
EO/IR + designator - [T1] Trillium HD59-MLVS product page — https://www.trilliumeng.com/gimbals/hd59-mlvs - [T2] Trillium press release / UST, HD59 series (Sep 15 2025) — https://www.trilliumeng.com/news/trillium-engineering-introduces-hd59-series-next-generation-imaging-systems-for-mid-sized-uas-and-launched-effects ; https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/2025/09/trilliums-new-hd59-gimbals-expand-uas-launched-effects-capabilities/ - [T3] Teledyne FLIR StormCaster-DX — https://defense.flir.com/defense-products/stormcaster-dx/ ; https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220510005069/en/ - [T4] Teledyne FLIR Hadron 640R — https://oem.flir.com/products/hadron-640 ; https://www.flircameras.com/product/hadron-640r-htm/ - [T5] Trillium HD80 gimbal — https://www.trilliumeng.com/gimbals/hd80 - [T6] HD80-VV public price (Wildflower International) — https://www.wildflowerintl.com/shop/shop-all/trillium-gimbal-hd80vv510/ - [W1] L3Harris WESCAM MX-8D — https://www.l3harris.com/all-capabilities/wescam-mx-8d-airborne-targeting-and-designating - [E1] Octopus Epsilon 175 — https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/2017/05/octopus-isr-reveals-worlds-smallest-four-sensor-mwir-gimbal/
GPS-denied PNT - [R1] Vantor (Maxar) Raptor — https://vantor.com/product/mission-solutions/raptor ; https://www.maxar.com/press-releases/maxar-launches-raptor-... - [R2] SSCI ImageNav — https://www.ssci.com/what-we-do/navigate/non-gps-navigation/ ; https://insidegnss.com/scientific-systems-advances-non-gps-navigation-technology-for-military-use-in-gps-denied-areas/ - [A1] ANELLO X3 IMU — https://www.anellophotonics.com/products/x3-imu - [A2] ANELLO Aerial INS (CES 2026) — https://insidegnss.com/anello-photonics-launches-aerial-ins-at-ces-2026-... ; https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/2026/01/anello-photonics-introduces-aerial-ins-for-resilient-uav-navigation/ - [H1] Honeywell HGuide HG4930 — https://www.honeywellaerospace.com/.../hguide-hg4930-mems-inertial-measurement-unit ; https://novatel.com/products/.../hg4930 - [S1] Sodern Astradia — https://news.satnews.com/2025/05/27/sodern-announces-the-commercial-launch-of-their-astradia-star-tracker/ ; https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/sodern-astradia-star-tracker-gps-gnss-denied-navigation
Threat-warning / terminal - [P1] Teledyne FLIR Prism SKR — https://www.flir.com/products/prism-skr/ ; https://oem.flir.com/about/news/teledyne-flir-oem-announces-upgraded-prism-skr-software-... (Apr 2026) - [P2] Dragoon/Teledyne "Cinder" (Project Artemis) — https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2025/breaking-news-cinder-drone-... - [L1] Northrop AN/AVR-2B airborne LWR lineage — https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/ac/equip/an-avr-2.htm - [L2] FY26 VPS-LWR RFI (threat set / data outputs) — https://www.highergov.com/contract-opportunity/request-for-information-for-laser-warning-receiver-vps-lwr-30sep2025-r-f7295/ - [B1] BAE 2CAWS (deferred) — https://www.baesystems.com/en-us/product/2-color-advanced-warning-system - [B2] Elbit PAWS-2 (deferred) — https://www.elbitsystems.com/air-space/airborne-self-protection/airborne-threat-warning-systems/paws-2
SAR / GMTI - [I1] IMSAR NSP-3 — https://www.imsar.com/radar-products/nsp-3 - [I2] IMSAR NSP-3 (alt) — https://www.imsar.com/radar-systems/nsp-3/ - [I3] IMSAR NSP-5 datasheet — https://www.imsar.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/NSP-5-Datasheet.pdf - [I4] IMSAR NSP-5 (UST) — https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/company/imsar/nsp-5-multi-mode-radar/ - [I5] Leonardo PicoSAR — https://www.leonardo.us/radar-picosar ; https://electronics.leonardo.com/en/products/picosar-1
SIGINT / EW - [N1] ASI SNITCH — https://www.asigint.com/ - [N2] ASI / software-defined RF SIGINT (UST, Apr 2026) — https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/2026/04/software-defined-rf-sensors-sigint-payloads-for-drones-uxvs/ - [C1] CACI Modular Mission Payloads (Spectral Sieve / KickFlip / Pit Viper) — https://www.caci.com/mission-payloads ; https://www.caci.com/modular-mission-payloads - [C2] L3Harris Deceptor (DiSCO) — https://www.l3harris.com/newsroom/press-release/2026/04/l3harris-demonstrates-autonomous-electronic-warfare-capability - [F1] CRFS RFeye Node 100-18 LW — https://www.crfs.com/hardware/rf-sensors/rfeye-node-100-18-lw
Army programs / MOSA
- [12] 12_autonomy_compute_software.md (heritage VIO core, Thor compute, ~3.4 kg old suite)
- [PM1] Vantor Raptor on AEVEX Atlas LE-SR — https://aevex.com/u-s-army-selects-aevex-atlas-for-initial-launched-effects-fielding/
- [PM2] CMOSS/SOSA (CMFF program of record) — https://www.army.mil/article/285078/cmoss_mounted_form_factor_becomes_new_army_program
- [PM3] Army Assured PNT (MAPS/DAPS Gen II, ASPN/VICTORY) — https://insidegnss.com/u-s-army-taking-a-layered-approach-to-pnt/
- [PM4] FTUAS Increment 2 — https://insideunmannedsystems.com/ftuas-engages-increment-2/
Internal refs: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3.1; 02_design_driver_register.md (DDR-02/03/04/11/13/14/17); 11_propulsion_power.md §6–7 (electrical budget); 12_autonomy_compute_software.md §3,5,11; 14_payload_effects.md §3,5 (CPI/25 kg bay); 30_bill_of_materials.md §6 (Assembly D).
§ 09Survivability — Laser / HPM / Kinetic
SURV▾
Survivability — Laser / HPM / Kinetic
SURVPlatform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 (hero) — recoverable & reusable; applicable in full to BACKFIRE AGP-2 Owner subsystem: Survivability / EW Primary DDRs: DDR-09 (anti-laser), DDR-10 (HPM/EMP), DDR-11 (terminal kinetic evasion), DDR-12 (simultaneous-survival trade vs range + payload), DDR-15 (reusability — survive to RTB, refuel, rearm, reuse) Secondary DDRs: DDR-13 (range/payload preserved + RTB reserve), DDR-16 (impose cost on enemy C-UAS), DDR-17 ("don't build the Batmobile"), DDR-04 (EW resilience), DDR-05/06/07 (DFM), DDR-19 (instrumented shoot-off + reuse demo) Baseline: Rev B.1 locked envelope (seed brief §3.1) — MTOW 175 kg (385 lb), empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, fuel ~45 kg incl. RTB reserve, payload up to 25 kg, full-up ~174.5 kg (+0.5 kg margin), Thor-class compute, reuse life ≥50 sorties, turnaround ≤30 min, flyaway ≤$150k. (Supersedes the Rev B 150 kg and obsolete 95 kg Rev A figures.) Status: Concept design. All numbers are design targets/estimates; physics-dependent items marked [TBR]. No validated test results claimed.
0. Thesis — Survivability is WILDFIRE's whole point, and reuse raises the bar
This document operationalizes the single most quoted idea in the interview. Palmer's argument is not "make a drone that beats a laser," it is "make the enemy's counter-UAS designer's problem unsolvable, cheaply." We are the attack-drone designer who chooses to survive, so that the defender's job becomes the "almost impossible" one:
"It is almost impossible to build something that can stop all three of those at the same time. You impose almost impossible design constraints on an attack drone designer when you say, 'Yep, you're going to have to survive against lasers.' … There will be some high-powered microwaves. There will be some kinetics. Now I need to make something that flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way, and somehow survives all of these systems at the same time working together. That's really really hard." — Palmer Luckey, [18:46–19:14] (DDR-12)
Rev B reframing — survival is no longer "survive the engagement," it is "survive and come home" (DDR-15). WILDFIRE is a recoverable, reusable airframe: the airframe + seeker + compute always return to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition (if any) is expended. Palmer is emphatic that a one-way airframe is the trap to design out:
"We've never actually won a war fighting against aircraft … in that way. So like we cannot build … missiles where we just throw away the engine and the seeker and the computer and the airframe and everything every single time we shoot down one target. … then they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." — [19:46–20:32] (DDR-15)
"It'll never work. It's a total folly." — on throwing the airframe away every time, [19:38–19:39] (DDR-15)
This raises the survivability bar in two concrete ways and shapes every choice below:
- The protected asset is the whole expensive platform, not just the mission. A one-way attritable drone only has to survive until weapon release. WILDFIRE must survive the threat triad on ingress, deliver effect, and survive the egress / recovery leg too — the seeker, the Thor-class compute, and the airframe are coming home. Hardening that merely lets the drone reach the target is insufficient; it must protect a returning asset whose recovery is the economic core (cost-per-sortie ≤ ~$3k airframe-amortized + fuel + munition).
- Non-catastrophic damage must be reusable damage. A laser scorch, an HPM upset, or a divert-motor structural load that lets the drone limp to the target but writes off the airframe defeats reuse (DDR-15). So survivability now carries a reuse-qualification requirement: after a survived engagement the airframe must be inspectable and returnable to flight within the turnaround budget (≤30 min refuel/rearm; deeper repair within the maintenance plan, Doc 18). Sacrificial, field-replaceable hardening (replaceable ablative panels, replaceable seeker window) is therefore strongly preferred over monolithic hardening — it converts a "kill" into a 10-minute panel swap on the flight line.
The governing engineering posture remains asymmetric cost imposition, not invulnerability. We do not need to be immune. We need each defensive layer to multiply the defender's cost-to-kill (engagement time, shots, energy, or stand-off) by a large factor for a small mass/cost adder on our side — and to do all three at once so the defender cannot optimize against any single threat. Reuse multiplies this asymmetry: each surviving airframe re-imposes that cost on the defender on the next sortie, for only the price of fuel. Where we cannot survive, we still win on Palmer's second-order logic:
"Even if I can't stop them, I'm going to take payload away. Their bombs are going to have to get smaller. Their range is going to have to go down… Now they have to get in closer, which means other weapon systems can deal with them before they even launch." — [19:16–19:26] (DDR-16)
The Home Depot framing (DDR-09/10) is the cost discipline that keeps this from becoming the Batmobile (DDR-17):
"Trip to Home Depot and $10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser… There's things that you can do again by going to Home Depot where you can make it a thousand times more survivable, literally making the range of these systems go from tens of kilometers down to simply meters." — [18:07–18:33] (DDR-09/10)
We hold ourselves to that standard: every hardening feature below must justify a large survivability multiplier for a small, commodity-sourced parts cost — and be compatible with returning the airframe for reuse.
1. Requirements derived from the DDR
| Req | Driver (DDR / timestamp) | Engineering requirement | Verify |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV-1 | DDR-09 [18:07] | Increase laser time-to-kill (TTK) by ≥ ~10× over bare composite skin via ablative/reflective/thermal-mass treatment, parts cost ≤ $200/airframe. | Lab burn test (DDR-19 shoot-off) |
| SV-2 | DDR-10 [18:17–18:33] | Reduce effective HPM/EMP kill range from "tens of km" to "meters" — target effective-range reduction ≥ 100× via Faraday enclosure + aperture control + optical internal bus + surge protection. | HPM chamber test |
| SV-3 | DDR-11 [18:35–18:44] | Terminal lateral solid-divert ("dodge") motor generates miss-distance ≥ typical interceptor lethal radius within fuze-to-impact reaction window, at a divert load the reusable airframe can take without writing itself off. | Sled/captive-carry, then live |
| SV-4 | DDR-12 [18:46–19:14] | All three survivability mechanisms integrated simultaneously with combined mass adder ≤ ~7% of the 175 kg MTOW and no loss of the locked range/payload KPPs incl. RTB reserve (DDR-13). | System mass/perf rollup |
| SV-5 | DDR-16 [19:16] | Survivability degrades the enemy C-UAS engagement envelope (forces shorter stand-off / smaller intercept payload). | CONOPS / red-team analysis |
| SV-6 | DDR-04 [15:54] | No survivability feature reintroduces an RF-dependent critical path. | Architecture review |
| SV-7 | DDR-05/06/07 | All treatments use automotive/ag/Home-Depot bill-of-process; line-add ≤ ½ day; no autoclave, no exotic alloys. | DFM review |
| SV-8 | DDR-15 [19:46–20:32] | Survivability must protect a returning asset: hardening preserves airframe + seeker + compute for RTB and reuse (life ≥50 sorties). A survived engagement must leave the airframe re-flyable within the maintenance plan; primary hardening is field-replaceable so a "near-miss" is a flight-line swap, not a write-off. | Post-engagement inspection + reuse re-qual (DDR-19 reuse demo) |
2. The threat triad — engineering models
We design against a representative threat, not a worst-case exquisite system:
"And maybe they're not the world's best lasers, but there will be some lasers. There will be some high-powered microwaves. There will be some kinetics." — Palmer [18:58–19:04]
| Threat | Representative system | Kill mechanism | What it needs to win | Our lever | Reuse consequence if it lands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LASER (HEL) | 10–50 kW fiber laser, ~1.07 µm | Thermal — heat a spot to burn-through / cook avionics | Dwell time on a fixed spot at adequate fluence | Raise required dwell → it runs out of time / engages fewer targets | A partial dwell that we survive must leave only a replaceable ablative panel charred, not the load-bearing skin |
| HPM / EMP | Wideband or narrowband microwave, GW-class EIRP | Couple RF energy through apertures → induce damaging V/I on electronics | Energy coupled into our circuits | Cut coupling cross-section → collapse effective range | An upset must be a recoverable reboot/limp-home, not a fried, unreusable seeker/compute |
| KINETIC | Gun (C-RAM), proximity-fuzed interceptor, or hit-to-kill drone | Fragments / direct impact within lethal radius | Predictable intercept point | Move unpredictably at the last second → push us outside lethal radius | The divert maneuver must respect the airframe's structural g-limit so the dodge doesn't itself end the airframe's life |
Each lever is independent of the others, which is exactly why stacking all three is "almost impossible" to counter (DDR-12): the defender cannot trade one off against another. Rev B adds a fourth column: a layer that barely saves the mission but kills reuse is only half a win — we design each layer to keep the airframe in the reuse pool.
3. LASER survivability (DDR-09)
3.1 Physics & the "$10 → 100×" logic
A HEL kill is energy-on-spot over time. To first order, burn-through time scales with the energy needed to raise the material to its destruction temperature and ablate/melt it, divided by absorbed flux:
t_kill ≈ (ρ · d · [c_p·ΔT + L]) / (α · I_abs)
ρ material density [kg/m³]
d effective thickness/areal mass to defeat [m]
c_p specific heat [J/kg·K]
ΔT temp rise to destruction [K]
L latent heat of melt/vaporization/ablation [J/kg]
α absorptivity (1 − reflectivity) at 1.07 µm [–]
I_abs incident irradiance [W/m²]
Two of these terms are free to engineer cheaply, and both appear directly in TTK: - α (absorptivity). A bare carbon/petroleum-plastic skin (Palmer's "unprotected plastic, which is petroleum drone you can buy from Best Buy" [18:14–18:16]) absorbs α ≈ 0.85–0.95 at 1.07 µm. A diffuse white/aluminized/ceramic-pigment coating drops absorbed fraction sharply. Even a modest practical reduction to α ≈ 0.3 cuts absorbed flux ~2.5–3×. - c_p·ΔT + L + ρ·d (thermal mass + ablation). A cheap intumescent/ablative layer (the same chemistry as fire-block spray paint and exhaust-wrap) raises destruction energy and carries heat away as it chars/off-gasses (transpiration cooling).
The multipliers stack multiplicatively. A 3× from reflectivity × 3× from ablative/thermal-mass × further gains from spreading the spot (Section 3.3) is how "$10 → 100×" (DDR-09 [18:09]) is physically reasonable, not marketing. We do not need any single miracle material.
Reuse design rule (DDR-15): the ablative/intumescent layer is a consumable, field-replaceable surface, applied to bolt-/clip-on leading-edge and forward-fuselage panels — not sprayed irreversibly onto primary structure. Rationale: an ablative defeats a laser precisely by being consumed (charring/off-gassing). For a one-way drone that is fine; for a reusable airframe, a survived laser engagement must leave a charred panel we swap on the flight line in minutes and a clean load-bearing skin underneath. This keeps the airframe in the reuse pool and folds anti-laser refresh into normal turnaround inspection (Doc 18).
3.2 Baseline treatment stack (Home Depot bill-of-process)
Applied to the leading/illuminated surfaces (forward fuselage, wing leading edges, gimbal shroud) — not the whole airframe, to protect mass/cost (DDR-17):
| Layer | Material (commodity analog) | Function | Areal mass | Parts $ | Reusable? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Reflective topcoat | White ceramic/TiO₂-filled or aluminized polyurethane (auto refinish paint) | Drop α at 1.07 µm; diffuse-scatter the beam | ~0.15 kg/m² | ~$15 | Survives many sorties; re-spray at deep maintenance |
| 2. Ablative/intumescent panel | Intumescent fire-block coating / cork-phenolic auto undercoat on a clip-on panel | Char layer + endothermic off-gas (transpiration cooling) | ~0.6 kg/m² | ~$25 | Field-replaceable consumable — swap if charred |
| 3. Thermal-mass / heat-spreader | Thin Al foil + ceramic-fiber (exhaust-wrap) underlay on protected zones | Conduct heat off the spot, raise total destruction energy | ~0.5 kg/m² | ~$20 | Reusable; bonded under the consumable panel |
| 4. Sacrificial standoff (critical apertures only) | Replaceable cover glass + ceramic ring on EO/IR seeker window | Take the first seconds; field-replaceable between sorties | ~0.2 kg | ~$30 | Replaceable — protects the non-expended seeker |
Treated area assumption: ~3.0 m² of illuminated frontal/leading surface (of ~total wetted ~9 m² on the larger 175 kg airframe). Areal mass ~1.25 kg/m² over 3.0 m² → ~3.8 kg anti-laser mass; parts cost ~$120 [TBR by area rollup with Doc 10 airframe]. Replaceable consumables (panel + seeker window) are a recurring per-sortie cost line, charged to cost-per-sortie (Doc 18), not to flyaway.
3.3 Optional body spin / beam-walking
Per DDR-09 ("optional spin") and the brief's baseline. Two cheap ways to deny the laser a fixed spot — which is what TTK assumes:
- Slow roll (spin) on the cruise body / spun nose cap spreads the dwell over a ring instead of a point, multiplying effective thermal mass by the ratio of ring circumference to spot diameter. Even ~1–2 Hz roll on a terminal run can multiply TTK several-fold. Cost: a control-law change (free) plus a low-friction nose bearing (~$10).
- Programmed micro-jink / aspect change during cruise forces the beam director to re-acquire and re-center, resetting accumulated heat. This is shared with the autonomy guidance loop (Doc 12) at zero added hardware.
Trade (Rev B — no one-way variant): there is no "expendable strike" airframe to grant a free-spinning concession to — WILDFIRE is reusable in every configuration (DDR-15). Continuous whole-body spin complicates the EO/IR seeker line-of-sight and adds gyroscopic coupling, and a recoverable airframe must also fly a controlled recovery profile (Skyhook-cable capture or parachute+airbag, Doc 18). Decision: spin is limited to (a) low-rate programmed roll/jink shared with the guidance loop, usable by any sortie at zero hardware cost, and (b) an optional spun nose-cap / aft-body roll aft of the gimbal during the terminal threat window only, commanded by the autonomy stack and damped out before the recovery phase so it never compromises capture. The EO/IR gimbal is mounted to de-spin or to a non-rolling section so the seeker keeps its target through the maneuver. Spin scope and seeker-LOS impact flagged for guidance integration [TBR-13.4].
3.4 Quantified outcome (design target)
| Case | Effective α | Rel. destruction energy | Spot management | TTK multiplier vs bare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bare petroleum-plastic skin (Best Buy drone) | ~0.9 | 1× | none | 1× (reference) |
| Reflective topcoat only | ~0.3 | 1× | none | ~2.5–3× |
| + Ablative + thermal mass | ~0.3 | ~3–4× | none | ~8–12× |
| + Terminal roll / beam-walk | ~0.3 | ~3–4× | ring-spread ~3× | ~25–35× [TBR] |
The "100×" claim is achievable in the spin + treated case against a modest laser; we conservatively design to ≥10× TTK (SV-1) and treat 100× as the favorable-geometry upper bound, to avoid over-claiming (no fabricated test results). Operational meaning: a 30 kW HEL that kills a bare drone in ~2 s now needs ~20–60 s of unbroken dwell — during which WILDFIRE has crossed the engagement zone, delivered effect, and is on its way home (DDR-15), and the defender has serviced far fewer targets in a saturation attack (the DDR-16 payoff). Reuse meaning (SV-8): because the absorbing layer is a clip-on consumable, a survived partial dwell costs us a flight-line panel swap, not the airframe — the same drone re-flies the next sortie.
4. HPM / EMP survivability (DDR-10)
4.1 The "tens of km → meters" logic
HPM kills electronics by coupling RF energy through apertures and conductors onto sensitive junctions. The defender's effective range is set by how much energy reaches our circuits at distance. Free-space power density falls as 1/R². If hardening raises the damage threshold the attacker must deliver by a factor M, the required range shrinks as:
R_eff_hardened / R_eff_bare ≈ (1 / M)^(1/2) (free-space 1/R² coupling)
To collapse range from "tens of km" (say 30 km) to "meters" (say 10 m) is a range ratio of ~3000×, which requires M ≈ 10⁷ (≈ 70 dB) of combined coupling reduction. That is large but exactly what stacked aperture control + a closed Faraday enclosure provides — shielding effectiveness (SE) is logarithmic and stacks additively in dB:
| Hardening element | Typical SE contribution | Commodity analog (Home Depot) |
|---|---|---|
| Closed conductive avionics enclosure (seam-bonded sheet metal, gasketed) | 40–80 dB | Steel/Al sheet box, EMI gasket (HVAC + auto) |
| Waveguide-below-cutoff (WBC) vents/penetrations | +20–40 dB | Honeycomb vent / metal-mesh screen |
| Optical internal data bus (no conductive bus to couple onto) | removes the dominant pickup path | Plastic optical fiber (POF) — automotive MOST-bus grade |
| Twisted/shielded harness + common-mode chokes | +20–40 dB on cabling | Shielded auto/ag wiring, ferrites |
| TVS / GDT surge protection at every penetration | clamps residual transients | TVS diodes, gas-discharge tubes (12 V auto kit) |
Adding even conservatively: 60 dB (enclosure) + 25 dB (WBC apertures) clears the ~70 dB target before counting the optical-bus benefit. So DDR-10's "thousand times more survivable" / range-to-meters is physically grounded — and again it is dominated by commodity sheet metal and connector discipline, not exotic parts.
4.2 Hardening architecture
- Faraday-enclosed avionics bay (brief baseline). All flight-critical electronics — the Thor-class compute module (~1000–2000 TOPS, Doc 12), dual MEMS IMU, FCU, power electronics — inside a single seam-welded/riveted steel sheet enclosure (reuses airframe bill-of-process, DDR-06/07), continuous conductive gasket on the access lid, 360° bonded. Steel chosen over aluminum: lower cost, magnetic shielding for low-frequency EMP, and same stamping line as the airframe (DDR-06). Reuse note: the bay lid is a quick-access gasketed panel so the Thor module and seeker electronics can be inspected/health-checked at turnaround (≤30 min) and the same compute flies again — Palmer's "I'm not throwing away my … computer" [19:52] is realized at the hardware level.
- Aperture shielding / waveguide-below-cutoff. Every required opening (cooling air in/out, sensor cable pass-throughs) is a honeycomb WBC vent or metal-mesh window sized so the cutoff frequency is above the threat band — passes air, rejects RF. The EO/IR window uses a transparent conductive mesh / ITO-coated shield (mesh visible to the camera, opaque to microwaves).
- Optical internal data bus (DDR-10 explicit). All inter-box flight data (sensors ↔ compute ↔ FCU ↔ actuators command) runs on plastic optical fiber, not copper. This deletes the longest, most efficient HPM pickup antennas inside the airframe — the single highest-value HPM measure. Only DC power crosses on copper, and it is filtered (below).
- Power-line filtering & surge protection. Every conductor crossing the Faraday boundary (DC bus, servo leads, antenna feed) passes through a feed-through filter + TVS/GDT clamp at the bulkhead. This kills the "antenna-into-the-box" leak that otherwise defeats a good enclosure.
- Twisted/shielded harness + common-mode chokes on all external runs (servo, ignition, EO/IR) to suppress induced common-mode currents; ferrite at each box entry.
- Ignition/EFI hardening (piston variant). The heavy-fuel 2-stroke EFI ignition (Doc 11) is a known EMP-soft path; its ECU lives inside the Faraday bay, leads shielded, with a fuel-mechanical limp-home interlock so an ignition-electronics upset does not equal loss of airframe [TBR with propulsion]. This interlock is also a reuse-preservation feature: it keeps the engine running long enough to RTB rather than handing the defender a free airframe kill via a recoverable upset (SV-8).
4.3 Residual-path discipline (ties to DDR-04)
The only intentional RF aperture is the opportunistic SDR mesh / SATCOM (Doc 15). Per DDR-01/04 the mission is RF-OPTIONAL, so under HPM threat the radio is commanded off and its feed shorted to the Faraday wall — the antenna stops being a coupling path. Because autonomy is fully onboard (DDR-01/02), losing the radio costs nothing operationally, including for the autonomous RTB/recovery leg (Doc 18): the drone navigates home and flies the capture profile with radios off (DDR-02). This is the synergy that makes WILDFIRE intrinsically HPM-resilient: there is no datalink to fry, on ingress, egress, or recovery.
4.4 Quantified outcome (design target — SV-2)
| Config | Combined SE / threshold raise | Effective HPM range vs bare (30 km ref) |
|---|---|---|
| Bare COTS drone (copper bus, plastic shell) | 0 dB | ~30 km (reference) |
| Faraday box only | ~50–60 dB | ~30–95 m |
| + WBC apertures + optical bus + surge | ~80–90 dB | ~1–10 m [TBR by chamber test] |
This meets DDR-10's "tens of km → meters." We design to ≥100× effective-range reduction (≥40 dB margin over bare, SV-2) and treat "1000×" as the favorable upper bound. Numbers are pre-test estimates; SE must be verified in an HPM chamber at the shoot-off (DDR-19) — no validated SE is claimed here. Reuse meaning (SV-8): because the dominant kill path (copper bus → junction damage) is removed rather than merely clamped, the most likely surviving outcome is a recoverable software upset / watchdog reboot, not silicon damage — so the Thor module and seeker come home intact and re-fly. We require the recovery design to include a deterministic watchdog re-init that re-establishes autonomous flight after a transient (joint with Doc 12).
5. KINETIC survivability (DDR-11)
5.1 The mechanism — generate miss-distance at the last second
"There are things you can do like solid rocket boosters that shove you out of the way at the last second and bring you out of the probable kill radius." — Palmer [18:38–18:44] (DDR-11)
A proximity-fuzed interceptor or gun solution is built on a predicted intercept point computed from our extrapolated track. If we apply a large, unpredictable lateral acceleration inside the defender's reaction/fuze window, the predicted point is wrong and we exit the lethal radius. This beats the kinetic threat without armor (which is mass-prohibitive against fragments) — we move, we don't tank the hit.
Rev B constraint (DDR-15): the divert must be survivable by the airframe, not just by the mission. A 30–40 g jink that snaps a spar lets us dodge the interceptor but writes off a reusable airframe — a self-inflicted "total folly." So the divert load is bounded by the structural g-limit at which the airframe remains re-flyable (Doc 10), and the maneuver is sized to the smallest divert that clears the lethal radius, not the largest the motor can deliver.
5.2 Lateral solid-divert ("dodge") motor
A small, transverse, fast-burn solid motor (or a 2–4 nozzle radial cluster for omni-azimuth divert), commanded by the autonomy stack when the threat-warning logic (Doc 12, EO/IR + acoustic + the same nav cameras) declares terminal intercept.
First-order divert displacement during the threat's terminal flight time t:
Δy ≈ ½ · a_lat · t² a_lat = F_divert / m_airframe
Design point (illustrative, [TBR] by motor + threat-timeline analysis; m_airframe = 175 kg MTOW, Rev B.1): - Trigger at threat range giving warning-to-CPA time t ≈ 0.3 s (representative for a short-range interceptor closing in terminal). - Target divert a_lat ≈ 12 g (≈ 118 m/s²) lateral — chosen as a reuse-safe load the cheap DDR-07 structure can take and re-fly (vs the larger g a one-way airframe could accept). On the 175 kg airframe → required thrust F = m·a = 175 × 118 ≈ 20.7 kN for the burn. - Displacement: Δy ≈ 0.5 · 118 · 0.3² ≈ 5.3 m in 0.3 s. - Higher-g reserve: if structural analysis (Doc 10) clears a reuse-safe 18 g momentary load, F ≈ 30.9 kN and Δy ≈ 8.0 m — held as a [TBR] upper option, not the baseline, to protect reuse life.
| Interceptor type | Typical single-shot Pk / lethal radius (rep.) | Our baseline Δy in window (12 g) | Resulting outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proximity frag interceptor | lethal radius ~3–5 m | ~5.3 m | miss-distance ≥ lethal radius → defeat |
| Hit-to-kill body | needs <~0.3 m CEP | ~5.3 m | gross miss → defeat |
| Gun / C-RAM burst | dispersion ~ several m at range | ~5.3 m lateral step | forces re-lay → degrades Pk |
So a single ~12 g, ~0.3 s divert plausibly pushes us outside a typical proximity lethal radius (SV-3) while staying inside a structural envelope the airframe re-flies (SV-8). A 2-shot divert kit covers a re-attack or a salvo. Sizing, structural g-tolerance of the airframe (DDR-07 cheap structure must take the jink load and remain reusable), and trigger-timing are [TBR] and shared with Propulsion (Doc 11) and Autonomy (Doc 12). Note the heavier 175 kg airframe (vs the superseded 150 kg Rev B and obsolete 95 kg Rev A figures) requires proportionally more divert thrust for the same g; thrust values above already reflect 175 kg (~20.7 kN at 12 g).
5.3 Divert motor budget
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Divert motor(s) + igniter | ~1.6 kg ×2 = 3.2 kg | small COTS-derived solid grain (sized up for 175 kg airframe / ~20.7 kN); ag/auto pyrotechnic supply chain (DDR-20) |
| Mount + blow-out ports + harness | ~0.9 kg | reinforced reuse-rated hardpoint in airframe |
| Threat-warning sensing | $0 added | reuses nav cameras + EO/IR (DDR-02) and acoustic mic |
| Parts cost | ~$320 (2 motors + igniters + structure) | [TBR] |
Reuse note: the spent divert motor is the one survivability item that is consumed in use — but it is a bolt-on, reloadable hardpoint rearmed during normal turnaround alongside the munition (≤30 min, DDR-15), not a part of the airframe thrown away. The airframe, seeker, and compute are unaffected by firing it. If it is not fired (no terminal intercept), it returns and re-flies as-is.
5.4 Signature reduction (cheap, no Batmobile)
Lower observability delays the track the kinetic (and laser director) needs, multiplying the value of every layer above — and on a reusable platform it also protects the egress/recovery leg, when the drone is slower and more predictable on its way home (DDR-15). We take only the producible, near-free measures (DDR-17): - Visual/IR: the anti-laser white/ceramic topcoat doubles as low-contrast sky camouflage and reduces solar IR loading; engine exhaust routed through a simple shielded/cooled tailpipe (piston) to cut the IR plume — a muffler/heat-wrap part, not an exotic IR suppressor. - RF/radar: the airframe is already small (Group 3) and largely non-metallic composite skin over a steel internal frame; we add canted surfaces and edge alignment only where free in tooling (a stamping geometry choice, DDR-07), plus radar-absorbent paint loading on leading edges if the burn-test budget allows [TBR]. No RAM tiles, no shaping that breaks the single-stage press rule. - Acoustic/emissions: radios off under threat (Section 4.3) removes the easiest electronic-support-measures cue.
Signature reduction is explicitly not pursued to stealth-aircraft levels — that would be the Batmobile. It is pursued only to the extent it is a free byproduct of tooling and the coatings we already apply.
6. Simultaneous-survival synthesis (DDR-12) — the central trade
This is the document's crux: integrate all three at once while holding the locked range + payload KPPs (DDR-13), including the RTB fuel reserve that recovery/reuse demands (DDR-15). The defender's impossibility is our integration problem.
6.1 Why the three combine without cancelling
| Defeats laser by… | Defeats HPM by… | Defeats kinetic by… | Conflict? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reflective/ablative (replaceable) skin | ↑ TTK | (neutral) | (neutral; coat doubles as low-contrast) | none |
| Faraday + optical bus | (neutral) | ↓ coupling | (neutral) | none |
| Optical bus | (neutral) | ↓ coupling | survives high-g divert better (no fragile copper harness flex) | synergy |
| Terminal roll / jink | ↑ TTK (beam-walk) | (neutral) | ↑ miss-distance (same maneuver authority) | synergy |
| Divert motor (reloadable) | (neutral) | (neutral) | ↑ miss-distance | none |
| Radios-off discipline | (neutral) | removes coupling antenna | removes ESM cue | synergy |
| Field-replaceable hardening (DDR-15) | survived dwell = panel swap, not write-off | survived upset = reboot, not fried silicon | spent divert = reload, not airframe loss | enables reuse — turns "survival" into "re-flyable" |
The mechanisms are largely orthogonal (each attacks a different defeat physics) and several reinforce (the jink helps both laser and kinetic; the optical bus helps both HPM and high-g survival). The Rev B bottom row is the reuse multiplier: each layer is implemented so that surviving an engagement also means returning to fight again. This is the engineering proof of Palmer's "almost impossible for the defender" thesis (DDR-12), now compounded: the defender must simultaneously field a high-energy laser and a GW-class HPM and a fast proximity interceptor, and beat all of our independent layers, in one engagement — at far higher cost than our ~$1.2k hardening adder — and they must do it again every time, because our drone keeps coming home (DDR-15/16).
6.2 The cost to us — vs range/payload incl. RTB reserve (DDR-13, DDR-15)
The hardening is not free; it competes with fuel and payload inside the locked 175 kg MTOW. Budget impact:
| Hardening element | Mass | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Anti-laser coatings + replaceable panels + sacrificial seeker window | ~3.8 kg | surface treatment (no structural change) |
| HPM Faraday box (steel) + WBC + optical bus + filters | ~4.5 kg gross / ~2.8 kg net | partly replaces the un-hardened avionics box + copper harness it supersedes → net ~+2.8 kg |
| Twisted/shielded harness + chokes + TVS | ~0.6 kg | net adder over baseline harness |
| Kinetic divert motors + reuse-rated mount | ~4.1 kg | dedicated; modular |
| Total hardening adder | ~11.0 kg gross / ~9.3 kg net | ≈ 5.3% of 175 kg MTOW |
Against the Rev B.1 175 kg MTOW the same hardening that was ~9.7% of the obsolete 95 kg airframe (and ~6.2% of the now-superseded 150 kg Rev B figure) is now ~5.3%, comfortably inside SV-4's ≤7% bound. Trade resolution: - Range incl. RTB reserve (DDR-13/15): ~9.3 kg net adder displaces a like mass of fuel if MTOW is hard-capped. At the heavy-fuel cruise (Doc 11) this is a low-single-digit-percent hit on the ~1,500–2,500 km radius baseline — within the ±10% refinement band — and crucially it does not eat into the RTB reserve that recovery/reuse requires; the reserve is protected first, hardening is charged against discretionary fuel/structure margin (DDR-17 discipline). If integration prefers, the divert kit (~4.1 kg) is modular and fitted only for contested-terminal missions, recovering range/payload on permissive sorties. - Payload (DDR-13): the up-to-25 kg modular payload is preserved; hardening is charged against structure + fuel margin, not the payload bay. The anti-laser coat and Faraday box also protect the (recovered, reusable) seeker/EO-IR payload and the (expended-only) munition until release, so survivability is in service of DDR-13, not in tension with it. - Reuse (DDR-15): every always-on hardening element is designed to be inspected/serviced within the ≤30 min turnaround, and the consumable elements (ablative panel, seeker window, divert reload) are explicit, cheap per-sortie line items rather than airframe write-offs — see §6.4. - Modularity is the release valve: laser coatings and Faraday box are always-on (cheap, light, dual-use, reuse-serviceable). The divert motor and terminal roll are mission-configurable. This lets the platform sit anywhere on the survivability-vs-range curve per sortie without redesign — the producible, reusable answer to the DDR-12 tension.
6.3 DDR-16 payoff — even partial survival wins, and reuse compounds it
If a layer is defeated, WILDFIRE still imposes the virtuous-cycle cost (DDR-16 [19:16–19:26]): the defender expended a long laser dwell / an HPM shot / an interceptor on one cheap, mass-produced drone, and must do it for the next ~1,000 (DDR-08). Rev B compounding: because our drones come home and re-fly (DDR-15), the defender is not fighting 1,000 drones once — it is fighting a fleet that regenerates every ~30 minutes for the price of fuel. Our survivability converts the enemy's C-UAS from a per-shot-cheap defense into a per-shot-expensive one, and our reusability makes our side of that exchange cheaper every sortie (cost-per-sortie ≤ ~$3k airframe-amortized + fuel + munition, seed brief §3.1). That two-sided asymmetry — expensive for them, cheap and regenerating for us — is the entire strategic thesis of the program.
6.4 Reuse-qualification of a survived engagement (DDR-15 / SV-8)
A "survived" engagement is only a win if the airframe re-flies. The turnaround inspection (Doc 18) adds a short survivability re-qual when a threat was engaged:
| Survived event | Field action at turnaround | Time | Returns to reuse pool? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laser dwell (partial) | Inspect/swap charred ablative panel + seeker cover glass; verify skin underneath | ~10 min | Yes — consumables only |
| HPM upset (no silicon damage) | Confirm watchdog re-init log; BIT on Thor module, IMU, FCU; reseat Faraday lid gasket | ~10 min | Yes — same compute/seeker |
| Divert fired | Reload divert hardpoint; structural BIT on mount + spar (g-event log) | ~10 min | Yes — reloadable |
| Frag/impact (off-nominal) | Damage map vs reuse limits; repair or down-check per maintenance plan | varies | Per Doc 18 limits |
The first three fold inside the ≤30 min refuel/rearm turnaround; only off-nominal frag damage routes to deeper maintenance. This is how survivability and reusability are made consistent rather than competing.
7. Producibility of the hardening (DDR-05/06/07/20)
Every measure here is deliberately a Home Depot / auto-parts / ag-implement primitive — honoring DDR-09/10's framing and the manufacturing doctrine:
| Measure | Bill-of-process | Line add |
|---|---|---|
| Reflective topcoat + ablative on clip-on panel | Spray booth (auto refinish), masking, cure — already in the paint line; panels are simple stamped clips | ~0.5 day train |
| Steel Faraday box | Same stamping/welding cell as airframe (DDR-06/07); add EMI gasket + quick-access lid bolts | shared cell, no new tooling |
| WBC vents | Stamped honeycomb / off-the-shelf EMI vent panel, riveted | drop-in part |
| Optical bus | POF + crimp connectors (automotive MOST-bus heritage) | replaces copper loom, similar labor |
| TVS/GDT + chokes | Standard SMT / connector assembly | existing avionics line |
| Divert motor + reloadable hardpoint | COTS solid grain + igniter from pyrotechnic/ag supplier (DDR-20 allied second-source); bolt-on reuse-rated hardpoint | bolt-on hardpoint |
No autoclave, no exotic alloys, no precision tolerances introduced. The reuse features (quick-access Faraday lid, clip-on ablative panels, reloadable divert hardpoint) add only commodity fasteners/gaskets — they are cheaper than monolithic hardening, not more expensive. This satisfies DDR-17 by construction: the most-quoted capability in the interview is delivered with the cheapest bill-of-process in the program, on an airframe built to come home.
8. Open issues / [TBR]
- [TBR-13.1] Laser TTK multiplier — confirm α and ablative char performance in a 1.07 µm burn test at representative 10–50 kW; current 10–35× is a pre-test estimate (§3.4). Include a reuse criterion: char must remain in the replaceable panel, not the load-bearing skin (SV-8).
- [TBR-13.2] HPM shielding effectiveness — verify ≥80 dB combined SE and "range-to-meters" in an HPM chamber; current dB values are handbook estimates, not measured (§4.4). Verify the surviving failure mode is a recoverable upset (re-flyable), not silicon damage.
- [TBR-13.3] Divert motor sizing, trigger latency, and airframe reuse-safe high-g structural tolerance under DDR-07 "cheap structure" — confirm the 12 g baseline (reuse-safe) vs 18 g reserve with Doc 10 (structures) and Doc 11 (propulsion). Thrust now reflects the 175 kg Rev B.1 MTOW (~20.7 kN at 12 g).
- [TBR-13.4] Terminal body-roll vs EO/IR seeker line-of-sight conflict, and compatibility with the controlled recovery profile (Skyhook/parachute, Doc 18) — resolve with Autonomy (Doc 12); confirm roll is damped before capture.
- [TBR-13.5] Net mass adder (~9.3 kg, ~5.3% of 175 kg MTOW) range impact on the ~1,500–2,500 km radius baseline — confirm within ±10% with Propulsion (Doc 11) and Integration; confirm the RTB reserve is protected first (DDR-15); decide MTOW cap vs modular-fit policy.
- [TBR-13.6] EFI ignition EMP-soft path and mechanical limp-home interlock as a reuse-preservation feature — joint with Doc 11.
- [TBR-13.7] Signature-reduction coatings (RAM-loaded leading-edge paint) — only if burn-test thermal budget and cost allow; do not break single-stage press / paint-line rules.
- [TBR-13.8] Per-sortie consumable cost (ablative panel + seeker window + divert reload) and its effect on cost-per-sortie (≤ ~$3k target) — reconcile with Doc 18 (reuse lifecycle) and Doc 16 (cost model).
Budget contribution
- Mass: ~9.3 kg net (≈11.0 kg gross before crediting the superseded baseline avionics box/harness) — contributes to WILDFIRE 175 kg MTOW
- Anti-laser coatings + replaceable panels + sacrificial seeker window: ~3.8 kg
- HPM Faraday box (steel) + WBC + optical bus + filters: ~4.5 kg gross / ~2.8 kg net (replaces un-hardened box + copper harness)
- Shielded/twisted harness + chokes + TVS: ~0.6 kg
- Kinetic divert motor ×2 + reuse-rated mount + ports: ~4.1 kg (modular; ~0 on permissive sorties)
- Contribution to WILDFIRE MTOW used here: 9.3 kg (net, all-up contested config) ≈ 5.3% of 175 kg
- Power (cruise / peak): ~5 W / ~60 W
- Cruise: surge-protection + filtering quiescent + threat-warning processing share (most sensing is reused from autonomy/nav, charged in Doc 12) ≈ 5 W
- Peak: divert-motor igniter firing + EO/IR threat-track burst ≈ 60 W for <1 s (igniter energy is one-shot, drawn from the existing electrical bus, Doc 11)
- Unit cost (volume): ~$1,160 (contribution to WILDFIRE flyaway)
- Anti-laser coatings + replaceable panels + sacrificial window: ~$120
- Faraday box + WBC vents + EMI gasket + ITO/mesh window: ~$320
- Optical bus (POF + connectors, net over copper): ~$120
- Surge protection (TVS/GDT) + chokes + shielded harness delta: ~$80
- Divert motors ×2 + igniters + reloadable mount: ~$320
- Coating/labor + EMI test allocation (amortized at volume): ~$200
- Contribution to WILDFIRE flyaway: ~$1,160 — well under 1% of the ≤$150k flyaway target; honors the "$10 Home Depot" cost discipline (DDR-09/10/17)
- Reuse impact: Net positive on reuse. This subsystem exists to return the airframe + seeker + compute home for reuse (DDR-15): (1) primary hardening is field-replaceable (clip-on ablative panel, sacrificial seeker cover glass, reloadable divert hardpoint), turning a survived engagement into a flight-line consumable swap rather than an airframe write-off; (2) HPM hardening removes the dominant kill path so the most likely surviving outcome is a recoverable reboot — the same Thor-class compute and seeker re-fly; (3) the divert g-limit is bounded to a reuse-safe structural load (12 g baseline) so the dodge does not end the airframe's life; (4) all always-on hardening is serviceable within the ≤30 min refuel/rearm turnaround, and a short survivability re-qual (§6.4) keeps a survived airframe in the ≥50-sortie reuse pool. Per-sortie consumable cost (ablative panel ~$25 + seeker cover ~$30 + divert reload ~$320 only if fired) is charged to cost-per-sortie (Doc 18), not flyaway, and remains a small fraction of the ≤ ~$3k airframe-amortized + fuel + munition target. No element reduces reuse life or extends turnaround beyond budget [TBR-13.8].
- Assumptions / [TBR]:
- All masses/costs/g-loads referenced to the Rev B.1 175 kg MTOW (supersedes the now-superseded 150 kg Rev B figure and the obsolete 95 kg Rev A figure used in earlier drafts).
- Treated illuminated area ~3.0 m² of ~9 m² wetted [TBR with Doc 10].
- Laser TTK ≥10× (design floor), 100× favorable upper bound — pre-test estimate, not validated [TBR-13.1].
- HPM combined SE ≥80 dB → "range-to-meters" — handbook estimate, chamber-test pending [TBR-13.2].
- Divert: 12 g / 0.3 s → ~5.3 m miss-distance vs ~3–5 m typical proximity lethal radius (reuse-safe baseline; 18 g/~8 m held as [TBR] reserve) — first-order, [TBR-13.3].
- Divert kit is modular: gross contested config = 11.0 kg / ~$1,160; permissive config omits divert (~6.9 kg net / ~$840).
- No validated test results claimed; all survivability numbers are design targets to be proven at the instrumented shoot-off and reuse-cycle demonstration (DDR-19).
§ 10Modular Payloads & Effects
PAYLOAD▾
Modular Payloads & Effects
PAYLOADDocument owner: Payload / Effects subsystem
Parent baseline: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3.1 (WILDFIRE AGP-1 LOCKED Rev B envelope)
Status: Concept design. All numbers are design targets/estimates; unverified physics-dependent items carry [TBR] / [TBD].
Rev B framing (program-owner directive — overrides all legacy text): WILDFIRE is RECOVERABLE and REUSABLE. The airframe, seeker, and compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, and reused (DDR-15). The only item ever expended is the munition — and even that is released (glide/powered standoff weapon, or droppable loitering submunition) while the host airframe turns for home. A one-way airframe is, in Palmer's words, "a total folly" [20:22]. Every "deep strike (one-way)" / "WILDFIRE is the terminal body" / "fused to the airframe through impact" notion from earlier revisions is deleted and replaced here.
0. DDR traceability (what this document satisfies)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey, timestamp) | How this document responds |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-15 | [20:22] "kinetics need to be reusable… we throw away every interceptor every single time. It'll never work. It's a total folly… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." | The organizing principle of this entire document. The strike payload is a releasable munition; the airframe + EO/IR seeker + Thor-class compute always RTB. ISR/EW/decoy/relay/cargo payloads are recovered and reused — none are consumed. Cost-per-sortie = airframe-amortized + fuel + (optional) munition. §1, §2, §3, §4, §6. |
| DDR-13 | [19:06] "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way." | Payload is a co-equal KPP with range. The 25 kg bay is protected to weapon-release / terminal phase; payload mass trades against fuel only by mission, never bled by structure/harness overhead. The "whole way" requirement now also includes the fuel reserve to fly the airframe home after the effect is delivered. §2, §8. |
| DDR-16 | [19:16] "even if I can't stop them, I'm going to take payload away. Their bombs are going to have to get smaller. Their range is going to have to go down… Now they have to get in closer." | WILDFIRE is the attacker the enemy C-UAS designer cannot afford to let through with full payload. We deliver the full 25 kg effect at full radius and then recover the truck — so we keep imposing that cost sortie after sortie, while the enemy expends finite interceptors against a re-flyable platform. §1, §2.6. |
| DDR-17 | [36:54–37:41] "not building the cool thing… makes no sense because there's no customer… focus on things that are actually in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed." | Every payload module has a named CONOPS mission and customer. No payload without a mission (§3 table column "CONOPS mission"). No bespoke effectors, no gold-plating. §7 kills four "cool" candidates — including the one-way kamikaze airframe itself (now disallowed by DDR-15). |
| DDR-02 | [16:01] vision nav + terminal acquisition | Lethal/ISR payloads slave to the vision-only terminal homing core; no payload requires GPS or an RF datalink to function. The released munition carries a derived vision/IR seeker so it homes after separation with the link off. §3.1, §3.2, §6.3. |
| DDR-05/06/07 | mass-producibility, automotive bill-of-process | All bay hardware uses commodity press-brake steel, stamped brackets, COTS connectors; payload modules are line-replaceable units (LRUs) installed at the FOB, not on the factory line. Reuse-robust hardware (repeatable latch, fatigue-rated mounts) carried as a DFM requirement. §5, §9. |
| DDR-10 | [18:17] HPM/EMP hardening | Payload bay is inside the Faraday volume; the Common Payload Interface (CPI) carries optical data across the bulkhead so no copper data path breaches the shield. Hardening protects the reusable seeker/compute so they survive to fly home. §5.3. |
| DDR-11 | [18:35] terminal kinetic evasion | Payload mass and CG are constrained so the lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor authority (owned by Survivability 13_…) is preserved with any module fitted — and so the airframe survives the engagement to be recovered. §5.4, §8. |
| DDR-14 | [17:02] open data standard, sensor=effector | CPI data layer uses the family open track/command schema; an ISR ball on one WILDFIRE can cue a munition released by another. §5.3, §6.2. |
| DDR-18 | [33:01] bounded, auditable autonomy; human-on-the-loop for lethal release | Munition module has a two-event arm + human-authorized release logic with deterministic abort; ISR/EW/decoy/cargo are non-lethal and need no release authority. §6.1. |
| DDR-19 | [21:40] live, instrumented shoot-off | Payload set must demonstrate effect and airframe recovery + ≤30-min rearm in the same shoot-off (reuse-cycle demonstration). §6.4, §11. |
1. Purpose & scope
WILDFIRE is one reusable airframe that must serve strike, ISR, electronic-attack, deception, mesh-relay, and logistics roles drawn from the same production line (DDR-05/08). The mechanism that makes one airframe many missions — without a redesign per mission, without violating "Don't build the Batmobile" (DDR-17), and without ever expending the airframe (DDR-15) — is a single, common, mission-agnostic payload interface plus a disciplined set of payload modules, each tied to a named CONOPS mission.
The Rev B inversion of the payload problem. In legacy attritable-drone thinking, the "payload" was the airframe — you flew the whole vehicle into the target. Palmer rejects this for the kinetic mission as "the total folly" [20:22]: you cannot make a vehicle carrying a seeker, a computer, an engine and an airframe cheap enough to throw away against mass-produced threats. So WILDFIRE's payload architecture is built around a hard rule:
Only the munition leaves. Everything that is expensive — airframe, EO/IR seeker, Thor-class compute, the propulsion train — comes home. A strike sortie releases a precision standoff munition (glide or powered) or drops a loitering submunition; the host turns on its RTB reserve and recovers for refuel + rearm + reuse (≥50 sorties [TBR], ≤30-min turnaround [TBR]). ISR, EW, decoy, relay, and cargo modules are recovered intact and re-flown.
This document defines: 1. The Common Payload Interface (CPI) — the shared mechanical + power + data + EMI + release bulkhead that every module plugs into (§5). 2. Six payload modules to the 25 kg envelope, each with mass, power, interface class, mission, recovery disposition, and DDR justification (§3). 3. The payload bay structural / EMI interface and CG/divert constraints, including release ejection mechanics (§5). 4. Effect-phase payload preservation — how the full effect reaches the target and the airframe survives to RTB (§2, §8). 5. Trades, including the modules — and the entire one-way-airframe concept — we deliberately did not build (DDR-15/17) (§7).
Out of scope (owned elsewhere): primary airframe structure (10_…), the EO/IR navigation gimbal used for flight (12_… autonomy — distinct from the ISR payload ball), the divert motor itself (13_…), the recovery system / Skyhook-cable hardware (18_…), the SDR mesh radio (15_…). This doc owns only the payload-side interface and the modules, including the munition release mechanism that lets the airframe survive.
2. Payload philosophy — "carry a useful payload the whole way," then bring the truck home (DDR-13 + DDR-15)
Palmer's central design tension [18:46–19:16] is that the survivable long-range attacker is "really really hard" precisely because it must fly far, carry a useful payload the whole way, and survive laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously. Rev B adds the decisive fourth term he names at [20:22]: and then come home. The corollary for the payload designer:
The payload fraction is sacred and the airframe is sacred. Structure, harness, shielding, and interface overhead are not allowed to eat the 25 kg. And the effect is not allowed to consume the vehicle — strike effects are released so the airframe keeps the RTB reserve to recover.
2.1 Payload mass fraction, first order (Rev B baseline)
| Quantity | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| MTOW | 175 kg | baseline §3.1 (Rev B.1) |
| Empty (structure, reuse-robust) | ~104.5 kg | baseline §3.1 |
| Fuel (full strike-radius load, incl. RTB reserve) | ~45 kg | baseline §3.1 |
| Payload allocation | up to 25 kg | baseline §3.1 |
| Residual margin (104.5 + 45 + 25 = 174.5) | ~0.5 kg nominal; allocate from empty growth pool | propulsion, avionics, survivability, harness reconciled by Integration |
Payload mass fraction = 25 / 175 ≈ 14%. This is high for a Group 3 platform and is a deliberate KPP per DDR-13. The 25 kg is a ceiling: ISR and EW missions fly far lighter (≈8–12 kg) and convert the saved mass into fuel = range / loiter, which is the explicit DDR-16 lever turned in our favor. Crucially, the fuel line already carries the RTB reserve — the recovery cost is not paid out of payload, it is baked into the locked fuel budget (DDR-13/15).
2.2 Range / payload trade (the DDR-16 lever, applied to us)
Because empty + fuel + payload must close at MTOW, every kg of payload not used is available as fuel. First-order (Breguet-style sensitivity, piston/heavy-fuel cruise):
ΔRadius ≈ Radius × (Δm_fuel / m_fuel_ref) [linearized about cruise]
With Radius_ref ≈ 1,500 km (round-trip-capable, incl. RTB reserve) at m_fuel ≈ 45 kg, each +1 kg fuel ≈ +33 km strike radius to first order (specific-fuel-consumption held constant) [TBR by propulsion 11_…]. Trading a full 25 kg strike load for a 10 kg ISR sensor + 15 kg extra fuel ≈ +500 km radius (or proportionally longer loiter) — the exact mechanism Palmer describes [19:16], here used to extend our reach rather than being forced on us. Note this sensitivity is computed on the reusable, round-trip mission, not a one-way dash.
2.3 Effect-phase payload preservation AND airframe recovery (DDR-13 + DDR-15)
"Carries a useful payload the whole way" is a delivery-phase requirement; Rev B adds that the airframe must survive the engagement and recover. Preservation rules, traced to survivability (13_…) and recovery (18_…):
- The munition is released; the airframe is NOT the terminal body. On a strike profile the airframe carries the weapon to a release basket, the munition separates (glide, powered, or gravity drop) and homes autonomously with its own derived vision/IR seeker (§6.3), and the host breaks away on its RTB reserve to recover. This is the direct engineering expression of "I'm not throwing away my… airframe" [20:22]. (Cargo and decoy expendables also release — §3.4, §3.5; the EW/relay/ISR modules stay aboard and recover.)
- Divert-compatible CG (§5.4). The lateral solid-divert "dodge" [DDR-11, 18:35] must retain authority with a full 25 kg forward module so the airframe survives an interceptor shot during ingress/egress and is recovered. Payload CG is bounded so the dodge does not throw the released weapon off the target basket.
- HPM survival of the effect AND the reusable subsystems (DDR-10). The munition's electronic safe-arm-fire (ESAF) and its EO/IR seeker sit inside the Faraday payload volume so a terminal HPM burst [18:17, "range… down to simply meters"] cannot dud the weapon. The reusable seeker electronics and Thor-class compute are equally Faraday-protected so they survive to fly home — hardening now protects capital that returns, sharpening the DDR-10 cost case.
2.6 Why recovery sharpens the DDR-16 attack (Rev B)
DDR-16 says the enemy's payload/range shrinks because they must survive our defenses. Rev B compounds the pressure: because our airframe returns, a single WILDFIRE forces the enemy to expend finite interceptors/laser-shots/HPM-dwell against a platform that will be back tomorrow on the next sortie. We trade fuel + (optionally) a munition; they trade magazine depth and barrel/aperture life. The reusability KPP (DDR-15) is therefore not just an economy measure — it is an offensive multiplier on the DDR-16 trap.
3. Payload module set (each with a named CONOPS mission — DDR-17; recovery disposition — DDR-15)
All masses are as-installed in the bay and ≤25 kg. "Interface class" refers to the CPI variant (§5.2). "Disposition" states what is expended vs recovered — per DDR-15, the host airframe is always recovered; only the items marked expended leave for good.
3.0 Module summary
| # | Module | Mass (kg) | Power cruise / peak (W) | Interface class | CONOPS mission (named) | Disposition (DDR-15) | Primary DDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Releasable precision munition(s) — glide/powered standoff weapon | up to 25.0 | 5 / 40 (ESAF only) | A — Lethal/Release | Anti-armor / anti-materiel terminal strike; counter-launcher / counter-C-UAS node | Munition expended; airframe + bay RECOVERED | 13, 15, 16, 18 |
| P1L | Droppable loitering submunitions (2–4 small munitions) | up to 25.0 | 8 / 60 | A — Lethal/Release | Time-critical / pop-up targets, area denial, magazine-depth strike | Submunitions expended; host RECOVERED | 13, 15, 16, 18 |
| P2 | EO/IR ISR ball (payload) | 9.0 | 35 / 70 | B — ISR/Sensor | Persistent recce, BDA, find-fix for the family mesh | RECOVERED & REUSED | 02, 13, 14, 15 |
| P3 | EW / jammer or comms-relay | 13.0 | 150 / 450 | C — Powered RF | Stand-in jamming of enemy C-UAS RF; mesh range-extension relay | RECOVERED & REUSED | 04, 14, 15, 16 |
| P4 | Decoy / RF-spoof (recoverable emitter + expendable decoys) | 10.0 | 50 / 280 | C — Powered RF + Release | Saturation/seduction of enemy C-UAS to "take payload away" (DDR-16) | Emitter RECOVERED; expendables released | 12, 15, 16 |
| P5 | Cargo / resupply | 25.0 (max) | 2 / 5 | D — Inert/Release | Contested last-mile resupply (blood, ammo, batteries, comms nodes) | Cargo delivered; airframe RECOVERED | 13, 15, 17 |
Six modules, six customers. Nothing here is built "because it would be sweet" (DDR-17) — each maps to a SOCOM/Army/Marine need named in §3.x. And in every row the airframe comes home (DDR-15) — see §4.
3.1 P1 — Releasable precision munition (glide / powered standoff weapon)
Mission (DDR-17 named): Terminal strike against (a) light armor & materiel (shaped-charge / EFP-tipped munition), (b) soft/area targets — launchers, radars, parked aircraft, massed troops (frag/blast munition), (c) the enemy C-UAS node itself (DDR-16: forcing their interceptors to be expended). The host WILDFIRE carries the weapon to a standoff release basket, the munition separates and homes, and the airframe RTBs (DDR-15). One airframe, three munition fills, selected at the FOB.
Rev B change vs. legacy: P1 is no longer a fixed warhead fused to the airframe through impact. It is a self-contained releasable precision munition with its own derived seeker, control surfaces (glide) or small motor (powered), and ESAF. The airframe is a reusable truck, not the terminal body (DDR-15 [20:22] "I'm not throwing away my airframe").
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total released mass (max) | up to 25.0 kg | one weapon, or split across the bay; ≈ 6–9 kg explosive fill + case + ESAF + seeker + glide kit per weapon [TBR] |
| Explosive fill | ~6–9 kg insensitive (IM-rated, e.g. PBX/IMX-class) per weapon | IM mandatory for FOB/automotive-line-adjacent handling (DDR-06 safety) |
| Effect options | (i) shaped-charge / EFP munition; (ii) preformed-fragment munition; (iii) unitary blast/frag | fill/liner selected at FOB; common munition body |
| Standoff release | gravity glide (folding wing kit) or short-burn powered; release at standoff so host stays outside terminal threat ring | enables airframe break-away to RTB |
| Power (aboard host) | 5 W cruise (ESAF + seeker housekeeping) / 40 W peak (release sequence + seeker spin-up) | from bay bus + dedicated firing capacitor in module |
| Fuzing | EO/IR-cued height-of-burst + impact + selectable delay (in the munition, post-release) | seeker shared with P2-class sensor head (§6.3) |
| Safe/arm | dual-event electronic ESAF, MIL-STD-1316 logic | §6.1 |
| Interface class | A — Lethal/Release (arm-enable hardline + ordnance ground + ejection/release discrete) | §5.2 |
| Disposition (DDR-15) | munition expended; host airframe + CPI bay recovered & reused | core Rev B rule |
Producibility (DDR-05/06/07): The munition case is a press-formed / deep-drawn steel cup — exactly the "single-stage press radius into a piece of steel" Palmer describes [10:01]. Fill is loaded on a conventional munitions LAP (load-assemble-pack) line, not on the airframe automotive line — the airframe rolls off "green" and is mated to the munition LRU at a licensed facility/FOB. The reusable airframe line stays free of energetics (DDR-06 "train them how to make it in 1 week").
Effect + recovery preservation (DDR-13/15): Weapon released at standoff; host breaks away on RTB reserve. ESAF and seeker inside Faraday volume (DDR-10). CG forward-bounded so divert (DDR-11) keeps the airframe alive through the engagement and the released weapon lands in the lethal basket — see §8.
3.1b P1L — Droppable loitering submunitions
Mission (DDR-17 named): Time-critical, pop-up, and area-denial targets, and magazine-depth strike — one WILDFIRE seeds a target box with 2–4 small loitering munitions that search, ID (vision/IR, DDR-02), and engage autonomously within ROE, while the host recovers (DDR-15). This is how WILDFIRE multiplies effects per sortie without ever being expended.
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mass (max) | up to 25.0 kg total | 2–4 submunitions × ~5–10 kg each [TBR] |
| Per-submunition | small EO/IR seeker + 1–2 kg IM fill + electric or micro heavy-fuel loiter | derived from family vision-nav core (DDR-02/03) |
| Release | sequential ejection from a common dispenser cassette (CPI Class A release path) | host stays clear; dispenser cassette recovered with airframe |
| Power (aboard host) | 8 W cruise / 60 W peak (release sequence) | bay bus |
| Disposition (DDR-15) | submunitions expended; dispenser + host RECOVERED & REUSED | only the small munitions leave |
| Interface class | A — Lethal/Release | §5.2 |
DDR-15/16 logic: Each WILDFIRE sortie expends only the small submunitions (cheap, IM, vision-homing) — never the airframe, seeker, or compute. The enemy must defeat several distributed homing threats and still cannot attrit the launching platform.
3.2 P2 — EO/IR ISR ball (payload sensor, distinct from nav) — RECOVERED
Mission (DDR-17 named): Persistent armed-recce and find-fix-track + battle-damage assessment feeding the open family mesh (DDR-14). On the ISR sortie this is the primary payload and always recovered with the airframe (DDR-15); on a strike sortie a smaller P2-derived seeker head rides inside the P1 munition for post-release terminal ID.
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mass | 9.0 kg | gimbal + 2-color sensor + processing card (Rev B uplift for best-in-class optics/processing) |
| Sensors | MWIR/LWIR cooled or high-grade microbolometer + EO color + laser rangefinder; optional laser designator | best-in-class, not competition-spec (DDR-03 Rev B) |
| Power | 35 W cruise / 70 W peak (gimbal slew + designate) | bay bus |
| Stabilization | 4-axis, ≤ 15 µrad | [TBR] |
| Interface class | B — ISR/Sensor (high-rate optical data, no arm line) | §5.2 |
| Output | open track schema → onboard autonomy and mesh | DDR-02/14 |
| Disposition (DDR-15) | RECOVERED & REUSED every sortie | costliest reusable module |
DDR-02 alignment: This ball is a payload sensor producing tracks/imagery; it is intentionally separate from the flight EO/IR navigation gimbal owned by autonomy (12_…), so an ISR-tasking slew can never degrade vision navigation. Both share the same global-shutter / detection software heritage to hold cost (DDR-03). The ISR ball is GPS-independent — it geolocates by fusing its LRF range + airframe vision-derived pose (DDR-02/04).
Recovery (DDR-15/17): P2 is the costliest reusable module; it is recovered with the airframe via Skyhook-cable / chute+airbag (baseline §3.1 recovery) every sortie. No customer pays $X for a one-way ISR ball — that would be the "total folly" [20:22] and a Batmobile (DDR-17). Health-monitoring data from the gimbal feeds reuse qualification (18_…).
3.3 P3 — EW / jammer or comms-relay — RECOVERED
Mission (DDR-17 named): Two customer missions, one module, two software loads: - Stand-in jammer: fly forward into RF-denied space (which WILDFIRE can do — DDR-01/04 mean we don't need the link the enemy does) and deny the enemy's C-UAS sensors/datalinks, directly executing DDR-16 ("take payload away… range… down… get in closer"). - Comms-relay / mesh range-extension: become an aerial node of the open family mesh (DDR-14), extending sensor-to-shooter reach for friendly forces.
Both missions recover the module and airframe (DDR-15) — a jammer or relay is far too capital-rich to throw away.
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mass | 13.0 kg | SDR + PA + antenna aperture + thermal (Rev B uplift to best-in-class PA/aperture and to the larger bay) |
| Power | 150 W cruise / 450 W peak (TX) | highest electrical draw of any module — sizes the bay bus (§5.5) |
| Bands | reprogrammable best-in-class SDR; jam set [TBD by EW threat list]; relay = family waveform | DDR-14 |
| Effective radiated power | [TBR] — limited by 450 W bay budget + duty cycle | |
| Interface class | C — Powered RF (high-current bus + RF-EMI care) | §5.2 |
| Disposition (DDR-15) | RECOVERED & REUSED |
Survivability note (DDR-10): P3 is the one persistent-radiating module. Its PA and aperture sit in a controlled "RF-clean" sub-volume so its own emission and any HPM ingress through its (necessarily open) aperture are managed by the bay EMI bulkhead (§5.3) rather than reaching the flight avionics — protecting the reusable compute so the platform recovers.
Producibility/cost (DDR-03, Rev B): Reuses the same best-in-class COTS SDR family as the comms doc (15_…). SDR/compute cost is "a rounding error" [15:48] against the airframe — and because the module is recovered, that cost is amortized over ≥50 sorties (DDR-15), not paid per shot.
3.4 P4 — Decoy / RF-spoof (recoverable emitter, expendable decoys)
Mission (DDR-17 named): A WILDFIRE that looks like the strike package to the enemy C-UAS, drawing laser/HPM/kinetic shots and false-track saturation so the real strikers get through. Rev B: the emitter/repeater core is recovered (DDR-15) — only small chaff/flare/RF decoys are expended. This is the offensive twin of DDR-16: we make the defender expend interceptors on phantoms, "taking payload away" from their magazine, while keeping our own decoy platform re-flyable.
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mass | 10.0 kg | DRFM repeater (recoverable) + corner reflectors + IR augmenter + small chaff/flare bay |
| Power | 50 W cruise / 280 W peak (active repeat) | bay bus |
| Effects | DRFM RF repeat (mimic striker RCS/Doppler) + retro-reflector RCS augment + IR plume augmenter + expendable RF/IR decoys | |
| Release | small expendables ejected on command (Interface class C + light release) | DDR-18 non-lethal, no human-release gate |
| Interface class | C — Powered RF + Release | §5.2 |
| Disposition (DDR-15) | DRFM emitter + airframe RECOVERED; only chaff/flare/RF decoys expended |
DDR-16 mirror: Where DDR-16 says the enemy's payload/range shrinks because they must survive our defenses, P4 makes the enemy's interceptor inventory shrink by spending it on phantoms — and because our decoy platform returns, we keep doing it. Same economic logic, applied offensively and reusably (DDR-15).
3.5 P5 — Cargo / resupply — airframe RECOVERED
Mission (DDR-17 named): Contested last-mile autonomous resupply — blood, ammunition, batteries, water, or air-droppable comms/sensor nodes — to forces in RF-denied/cut-off positions, delivered by an airframe that needs no GPS and no link to find them (DDR-02/04). The cargo is delivered; the airframe recovers and re-flies (DDR-15). Named customer: SOCOM/Army resupply of isolated elements; "actually in cycle" funding (DDR-17).
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mass | 25.0 kg (max) | inert payload; bay is the structural box |
| Power | 2 W cruise / 5 W peak (release actuator + cargo sense) | bay bus |
| Delivery | (a) low-pass parachute/drogue cargo release, or (b) frangible-cargo ground placement — then airframe recovers via Skyhook-cable / chute+airbag | reuses recovery hardware (18_…) |
| Interface class | D — Inert/Release (no arm line, no high-rate data) | §5.2 |
| Disposition (DDR-15) | Cargo delivered; airframe RECOVERED & REUSED |
DDR-13/15 link: P5 proves "useful payload the whole way" in its most literal form — 25 kg of cargo delivered at strike radius — and brings the truck back for the next run. DDR-17 discipline: cargo is not a parachute-only kit bolted to a one-way body; it reuses the existing recovery subsystem and CPI, adding only a release actuator. No new airframe.
4. Module / mission matrix (CONOPS roll-up for 04_…) — every row recovers the airframe (DDR-15)
| Mission profile | Module | Airframe recovery | Expended item | Payload mass | Traded for | DDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standoff precision strike | P1 munition | Skyhook / chute+airbag — REUSED | the released munition only | up to 25 kg | full effect + RTB reserve | 13,15,16 |
| Loitering-submunition strike | P1L | REUSED | 2–4 small submunitions | up to 25 kg | effect density | 13,15,16 |
| Armed recce / persistent ISR | P2 ISR ball | REUSED | nothing | 9 kg | +~16 kg fuel ≈ +endurance | 02,13,15 |
| Stand-in electronic attack | P3 jammer | REUSED | nothing | 13 kg | +~12 kg fuel | 04,15,16 |
| Mesh relay (loiter node) | P3 relay | REUSED | nothing | 13 kg | endurance | 14,15 |
| Deception / SEAD-assist | P4 decoy | REUSED (emitter) | chaff/flare/RF decoys only | 10 kg | +fuel/range | 15,16 |
| Contested resupply | P5 cargo | REUSED | the cargo only | 25 kg | — | 13,15,17 |
Every row has a named customer mission and recovers the airframe → satisfies DDR-17 and DDR-15 at the fleet level: no module exists without a column above, and no airframe is ever expended.
5. Common Payload Interface (CPI) — the bay (mechanical + power + data + EMI + release)
The CPI is the single most important producibility-and-reuse lever in this document: one bulkhead pattern, installed on every WILDFIRE on the automotive line (DDR-06), accepts any of the six modules as a FOB-swappable LRU, survives repeated launch/recovery cycles, and provides the release path that lets the airframe shed the munition and live (DDR-15).
5.1 Physical envelope (Rev B)
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Location | modular nose + forward fuselage bay (baseline §3.1 "modular nose") | ahead of fuel cell; aft of nav-camera ring |
| Usable volume | ~34 L (≈ 360 mm dia × 330 mm equivalent cylinder) | sized for 25 kg payload incl. glide-kit munition / submunition cassette [TBR] |
| Max module mass | 25.0 kg | DDR-13 ceiling (Rev B) |
| Release provision | bay floor / nose ejection + clean-separation path for P1/P1L munitions and P4/P5 expendables | enables airframe break-away (DDR-15) |
| Mounting | 4-point shear + 1 axial preload; quarter-turn cam latch; fatigue-rated for ≥50 swap+flight cycles | tool-less FOB swap target ≤ 5 min by 2 crew [TBR] |
| Structural attach | bolts into press-braked steel ring frame (airframe 10_…) |
commodity fasteners (DDR-06/07) |
5.2 Interface classes (one connector family, populated by need)
A single keyed connector shell is used for all classes; only the contacts populated differ, so the production harness is identical and the class is set by which module is fitted. This avoids per-mission wiring on the line (DDR-05/06) and keeps every airframe identical and reusable across missions.
| Class | Power | Data | Special | Used by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A — Lethal/Release | 28 VDC, 3 A | optical bus + discrete | dual arm-enable hardline + ordnance ground (MIL-STD-1316) + ejection/release discrete | P1, P1L |
| B — ISR | 28 VDC, 3 A | optical bus, high-rate | — | P2 |
| C — Powered RF | 28 VDC, 18 A | optical bus | RF-EMI bonded sub-volume; optional light release (P4) | P3, P4 |
| D — Inert/Release | 28 VDC, 0.5 A | optical bus, low-rate | release actuator discrete | P5 |
5.3 Data + EMI bulkhead (DDR-10, DDR-14)
- All payload data crosses the bulkhead as light, not copper. The CPI carries a fiber/optical-isolator data path (consistent with the family "optical internal data bus" mandate, baseline §3.1 / DDR-10) so no conductive penetration breaches the Faraday avionics volume. This is the direct engineering response to "fry normal drones with high-powered microwaves… make it a thousand times more survivable" [18:17] — and it protects the reusable Thor-class compute and seeker so the platform survives to fly home (DDR-15).
- The bay bulkhead is a gasketed, bonded EMI partition: payload-side apertures (P2 window, P3/P4 RF apertures, release port) are limited-aperture and waveguide-below-cutoff or band-limited so HPM ingress through a necessary opening is bounded and does not reach flight avionics.
- The data schema is the open family track/command format (DDR-14 [17:02] "common data format… no… stovepipe"). Consequence: a P2 ISR ball on airframe #1 can hand a track straight to a P1 munition released by airframe #2 with no human re-keying — "Every sensor needs to be a sensor for every effector" [17:02].
5.4 CG / mass-properties constraint (DDR-11, DDR-13, DDR-15)
The lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor (13_…, DDR-11) imparts a commanded miss-distance so the airframe survives an interceptor shot and is recovered (DDR-15). For the dodge to remain effective with a full forward 25 kg module, the payload CG must stay within a defined longitudinal/lateral box so the divert impulse rotates the body about a predictable point — and, on a strike profile, so the released munition still lands in the basket.
First-order constraint (placeholder pending 13_… divert sizing [TBR]):
x_cg(payload) within ±5% MAC of design point; m·d (offset moment) ≤ M_divert / k
Each module ships with a published CG and inertia card; the CPI's fixed 4-point pattern guarantees repeatable installed CG so the divert controller and the recovery (Skyhook engagement) controller need only a module-ID lookup, not per-build calibration. This keeps DDR-11 evasion compatible with DDR-13 full-payload carriage and DDR-15 recovery — the simultaneity Palmer flags as "really really hard" [19:14], now with the airframe surviving.
5.5 Electrical interface (sizes the bay bus)
- Bay bus: regulated 28 VDC, sourced from airframe electrical (
11_…). - Worst-case module = P3 jammer @ 450 W peak (≈16 A @ 28 V). CPI Class C rated to 18 A continuous with margin; bus and wiring sized to this case. All other modules fit inside it.
- Bay-resident power-distribution + optical data-concentrator board (the fixed part that stays on the airframe and is reused every sortie) draws ~9 W housekeeping — this is the power this document contributes (§10); the modules' draw belongs to whichever mission is flown.
6. Autonomy, safety, and effect logic
6.1 Lethal release — bounded, auditable, human-on-the-loop (DDR-18)
Palmer: "I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI" [33:01]. The P1/P1L munitions therefore use:
- Two independent arm events (physical separation/launch sense + commanded arm-enable hardline, Class A) — no single fault arms.
- Human-authorized release for lethal effect: target nomination by autonomy (vision-ID, DDR-02), release authority held by a human-on-the-loop consistent with ROE/geofence; if the authorization or the target lock is lost, the default is deterministic abort — for P1/P1L this means do not release, retain the weapon, and RTB with it (the reusable airframe brings the unfired munition home — a direct DDR-15 dividend; legacy one-way designs could only "fly to safe impact"). Abort never means "fire anyway."
- Full audit log of arm/abort/release events to the recoverable flight recorder — which itself returns for analysis (DDR-15/19).
- Geofence/ROE constraints are checked onboard and are independent of any RF link (DDR-01/04) — the abort works with radios off.
Non-lethal modules (P2/P3/P4/P5) require no release authority and run autonomously within their tasking envelope.
6.2 Sensor=effector (DDR-14)
Per [17:02], any payload sensor output is published on the open schema and is consumable by any family effector. The CPI optical bus + open format is what makes this true at the hardware level (§5.3). A recovered, reused ISR ball builds persistent track history across many sorties (DDR-15) that the mesh can exploit.
6.3 Terminal seeker sharing (DDR-02, DDR-03)
The P1/P1L munition seeker head and the P2 ISR ball share the same best-in-class global-shutter EO + IR detector family and the same heritage detection/PnP software (12_…). One detector supply chain, two products — holding cost down (DDR-03 "rounding error") and guaranteeing the released munition inherits the proven vision-nav terminal-homing behavior (DDR-02 [16:01] "drive to the place you need to go until you see the thing you need and go to it"). The munition homes after separation, with the host link off, so the host can be breaking for home.
6.4 Reuse-cycle demonstration (DDR-15, DDR-19)
For the live shoot-off (DDR-19 [21:40]), the payload set must demonstrate, on one airframe in one day: (a) release of a P1 munition (or P1L submunitions) on target, (b) airframe recovery via the baseline recovery system, (c) FOB rearm + module re-mate within the ≤30-min turnaround target, and (d) re-launch. This proves the DDR-15 economic claim — cost-per-sortie = airframe-amortized + fuel + munition — is real and instrumented, not asserted.
7. Trades — including what we did NOT build (DDR-15/17)
7.1 Modules / concepts deliberately rejected
| "Cool" candidate | Why rejected |
|---|---|
| One-way kamikaze airframe (the airframe is the warhead) | Disallowed by DDR-15. Palmer: a one-way kinetic is "a total folly… you will never be able to build something cheap enough" [20:22]. Throwing away the seeker, compute, and airframe every shot loses the cost war against mass-produced threats. WILDFIRE releases a munition and recovers — this is the central Rev B correction. |
| Onboard directed-energy (laser) payload | Power/SWaP/cost on a 175 kg platform is absurd; no in-cycle customer; pure Batmobile [36:54]. Survivability via $10-Home-Depot hardening (DDR-09) is the doctrine, not airborne DEW. |
| "Drone carries many sub-drones" mothership beyond P1L | A full second air-vehicle program with its own release/sep system and BOM; no funded mission. P1L (2–4 small loitering submunitions) is the disciplined amount of this idea that has a customer (DDR-17) and keeps the host reusable (DDR-15). |
| Reconfigurable "do-everything" universal turret | Mass/cost of generality with no single mission paying for it. We chose six discrete LRUs on a common interface instead — generality lives in the interface, not in a gold-plated turret. |
7.2 Architecture trade — common interface + reuse vs. per-mission / one-way airframe
| Option | Cost-per-sortie | Producibility (DDR-05/06) | Reuse (DDR-15) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-way airframe per strike | airframe + seeker + compute + munition every shot | single BOM but enormous build rate demand | none — "total folly" [20:22] | rejected (DDR-15) |
| Per-mission airframe variants | varies | breaks single-line build; multiple BOMs | partial | rejected |
| Universal turret (7.1) | high | medium | yes | rejected (DDR-17) |
| Common CPI + 6 LRUs, recoverable airframe, releasable munition (chosen) | fuel + (optional) munition; airframe amortized ≥50 sorties → ≤~$3k/sortie | one line, one airframe BOM, FOB module swap | full — airframe + seeker + compute reused | selected |
The chosen architecture pays a small fixed mass/cost overhead (the CPI bulkhead/harness + release path, §10) to keep one reusable airframe on the automotive line (DDR-06) and to recover the expensive parts every sortie (DDR-15) — the right DDR-05/15/17 trade.
7.3 Munition handling vs. line simplicity (DDR-06/07)
Energetics are explicitly kept off the automotive airframe line and mated as a munition LRU at a licensed/FOB facility. Trade accepted: a separate LAP step, in exchange for keeping the high-rate, reusable-airframe line (≥1,000/day, DDR-08) free of explosive controls. Insensitive-munition (IM) fill is mandated so transport/handling stays within automotive-grade logistics where possible (DDR-20 allied-portable), and so an aborted weapon can be brought home safely on the reusable airframe (DDR-15/18).
8. Effect-phase preservation + airframe recovery — worked summary (DDR-13 + DDR-15)
| Threat / requirement | Preservation mechanism | DDR | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laser dazzle of seeker | EO/IR ball/seeker behind ablative/limited-aperture window; multi-spectral so single-line laser doesn't blind | 09 | 13_/14_ |
| HPM dud of munition fuze/seeker | ESAF + munition seeker inside Faraday payload volume; optical-only data crossing (§5.3) | 10 | 14_ |
| HPM/laser kill of reusable seeker + compute | same Faraday/optical protection applied to the parts that must return | 10,15 | 13_/14_ |
| Kinetic interceptor (host survival) | divert "dodge" keeps airframe alive to recover; payload CG bounded so released weapon stays in basket (§5.4) | 11,15 | 13_/14_/18_ |
| Geometry of effect | munition released at standoff and homes; host breaks away on RTB reserve (§2.3) — airframe is NOT consumed | 13,15 | 14_ |
| Aborted lethal release | retain weapon, RTB with it (only possible because airframe returns) | 15,18 | 14_/12_ |
This is the document-level answer to DDR-12 [18:46] — laser and HPM and kinetic survivability while still putting the full 25 kg effect on the target and bringing the airframe home (DDR-15).
9. Producibility, DFM & reuse summary (DDR-05/06/07/08/15/20)
- Bay/CPI hardware: press-braked + stamped commodity steel ring frame, COTS keyed connector, COTS optical isolators, gasket EMI partition, simple ejection/release mechanism. No exotic materials. Single-stage press radii (DDR-07 [10:01]).
- One interface on the line: every airframe gets the identical CPI; modules are not installed on the automotive line → preserves ≥1,000/day surge (DDR-08) and ≤1-week line training (DDR-06).
- Reuse-robust (DDR-15): the CPI latch, mounts, connector, and release mechanism are fatigue-rated for ≥50 swap+flight cycles; the connector self-aligns and is rated for repeated mate/de-mate so FOB rearm hits the ≤30-min turnaround target. Module-ID auto-detect means no field recalibration after a swap.
- Modules are reusable LRUs (except the munition): P2/P3/P4-emitter are recovered and re-flown; built on their own (smaller-rate) lines or by allied second-sources (DDR-20). A P2 ISR ball or P3 SDR can be sourced from "Japanese automotive workers" [23:24] without touching the airframe line, and is then reused — amortizing its cost over many sorties (DDR-15).
- Tool-less FOB swap: quarter-turn cam latch, module-ID auto-detected by the bay so the divert/recovery controllers and autonomy self-configure (§5.4) — supports the reuse-cycle demonstration (§6.4, DDR-19).
10. Budget contribution
Scope note: this block counts only the airframe-resident CPI hardware (the fixed, reusable bay that ships on and stays with every WILDFIRE — including the munition release/ejection path). The payload modules are mission loads carried within the 25 kg allocation; per DDR-15 the recoverable modules (P2/P3/P4-emitter) and the airframe are reused, while only munitions/cargo/expendable-decoys leave. Modules do not add to MTOW beyond the locked 25 kg payload line.
Mass (kg) — airframe-resident CPI only
| Item | Mass (kg) |
|---|---|
| Bay ring-frame reinforcement + 4-pt mount/latch (fatigue-rated for reuse) | 1.5 |
| EMI bulkhead partition + gaskets/bonding | 0.6 |
| CPI connector + harness + optical isolators/concentrator board | 0.5 |
| Munition ejection / clean-release mechanism (enables airframe break-away) | 0.6 |
| CPI total (counts toward MTOW) | 3.2 |
| Memo — payload modules (within 25 kg allocation, not added): | up to 25.0 |
- Mass to MTOW (175 kg) from this doc: 3.2 kg (resident, reusable interface). Payload itself = the locked 25 kg line, unchanged.
Power (cruise / peak, W)
| Item | Cruise | Peak |
|---|---|---|
| Bay power-distribution + optical data concentrator (resident) | 9 | 14 |
| Memo — worst-case module draw (P3 jammer) | 150 | 450 |
- Power to electrical budget from this doc (resident): 9 W cruise / 14 W peak.
- Bus sizing requirement levied on
11_…: Class C bay bus must supply 450 W / 18 A peak for the P3 module case.
Unit cost (volume $) — airframe-resident CPI only
| Item | $ (volume) |
|---|---|
| Steel ring frame + mount/latch (stamped/press, reuse-rated) | 280 |
| EMI partition + gaskets/bonding | 160 |
| Keyed connector + harness (repeated-mate rated) | 220 |
| Optical isolator + data-concentrator board (COTS) | 380 |
| Munition ejection / release mechanism | 260 |
| Assembly/test allocation | 100 |
| CPI total per airframe | ≈ $1,400 |
- Unit cost to flyaway from this doc: ≈ $1,400 (interface only; ~0.9% of the ≤$150k Rev B flyaway target — a rounding error, consistent with DDR-03).
- Module costs (not in airframe flyaway; recoverable modules amortized over ≥50 sorties per DDR-15): P1/P1L munition [TBD by energetics — the only per-sortie-expended cost here], P2 ISR ball ~$15–30k (recovered, amortized → ~$0.3–0.6k/sortie), P3 SDR EW ~$10–20k (recovered, amortized), P4 decoy emitter ~$5–10k (recovered) + cheap expendables, P5 cargo box ~$0.5k. [TBR]
Reuse impact (DDR-15)
- Cost-per-sortie: This document is the doc that makes the DDR-15 economics real. By releasing the munition (P1/P1L), delivering cargo (P5), or expending only small decoys (P4) while the airframe + seeker + Thor-class compute recover and re-fly, the per-sortie cost collapses to airframe-amortized (≤~$3k over ≥50 sorties) + fuel + (optional) munition. Recovered modules (P2/P3/P4-emitter) add ~$0.1–0.6k/sortie amortized rather than their full unit cost.
- Reuse life: CPI latch/mount/connector/release mechanism are fatigue-rated for ≥50 swap+flight cycles [TBR]; the resident bay is the part that must survive every launch/recovery cycle. Health-monitoring of the gimbal/EW module feeds reuse qualification (
18_…). - Turnaround: Tool-less quarter-turn latch + self-aligning, repeated-mate-rated connector + module-ID auto-detect support FOB refuel+rearm+remate ≤30 min by a small team (DDR-15). Aborted lethal weapons are retained and flown home (§6.1), avoiding any field-disposal step.
- Net: removes the airframe/seeker/compute from the per-shot cost — the single biggest lever Palmer identifies ("It'll never work. It's a total folly… they need to come back" [20:22]).
Assumptions / [TBR]
- [TBR] Bay usable volume (34 L) closes a 25 kg glide-kit munition or submunition cassette — confirm with
10_…and energetics. - [TBR] Range sensitivity (+1 kg fuel ≈ +33 km, round-trip incl. RTB reserve) — confirm with propulsion
11_…. - [TBR] Payload CG box vs. divert authority AND Skyhook recovery (§5.4) — gated by
13_…divert sizing and18_…recovery. - [TBR] P3 ERP / jam effectiveness within 450 W bay budget and duty cycle.
- [TBR] Munition clean-separation aerodynamics and host break-away geometry (release basket vs. terminal threat ring).
- [TBR] CPI fatigue life ≥50 cycles; FOB module swap ≤5 min / 2 crew; turnaround ≤30 min (DDR-15/19).
- [TBD] P1/P1L munition fill type/mass (IM selection), glide/powered kit, and munition unit cost; EW/jam band set (threat-list dependent).
- Assumption: 28 VDC bay bus; optical-only data crossing the Faraday bulkhead (DDR-10); energetics mated off the automotive line as an LRU (DDR-06); airframe + seeker + compute recovered every sortie (DDR-15).
11. Open issues / [TBR] list
- Confirm 34 L bay volume and forward CG with airframe
10_…for the 25 kg munition case. [TBR] - Lock the divert-compatible + Skyhook-recovery-compatible CG/inertia box with
13_…and18_…. [TBR / cross-doc] - Resolve P3 jammer ERP and thermal at 450 W peak; confirm
11_…can deliver Class C 18 A bus. [TBR] - Define munition LAP/mate process, IM fill, glide/powered kit, and munition cost with the weapons authority. [TBD]
- Define munition clean-separation + host break-away-to-RTB geometry with
13_…/18_…(the DDR-15 release-and-recover sequence). [TBR / cross-doc] - Finalize the open track/command schema fields jointly with comms/networking
15_…and02_…. [TBR / cross-doc] - Validate human-on-the-loop release + deterministic abort (retain-and-RTB) with autonomy/safety
12_…(DDR-18). [cross-doc] - Verify CPI fatigue life ≥50 cycles and ≤30-min turnaround in the reuse-cycle shoot-off (DDR-15/19) with
17_…/18_…. [TBR / cross-doc]
§ 11Comms, Open Networking & C2
NET▾
Comms, Open Networking & C2
NETProgram: AGP Autonomous Air System Family — WILDFIRE (AGP-1) hero platform, BACKFIRE (AGP-2) variant Document role: Communications, open-network/track-format layer, and command-and-control (C2) architecture Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets or estimates; unverified items carry [TBR] / [TBD].
0. Design Drivers Satisfied (traceability)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey) | What this doc owns |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-01 [14:36] | "all of these schemes around radio frequency lengths and fiber optics… they're probably going to go away because it's going to be cheaper, better, faster, more resilient to just have on-board autonomy do basically everything." | RF-optional architecture: full mission with every radio OFF. Comms is opportunistic, never on the critical path. |
| DDR-04 [15:54] | "completely resistant to all jamming systems, not just on the communications, but also things like navigation." | LPI/LPD waveform, EMCON discipline, no single RF point of failure, graceful zero-comms degradation. |
| DDR-14 [17:02–17:45] | "Every sensor needs to be a sensor for every effector and vice versa… everything must be networked… common data format… open interoperable standards… no… stovepipe." | Open common-track-format networking layer; sensor-to-shooter mesh; swarm coordination; BACKFIRE cueing. |
Secondary drivers honored: DDR-18 [33:01] bounded/auditable autonomy and human-on-the-loop messaging; DDR-03 [14:53] COTS-cost SDR/compute; DDR-10 [18:17] HPM/EMP-hardened RF apertures (interface to Doc 13); DDR-17 [36:54] "Don't build the Batmobile" — no exquisite datalink, COTS radio only; DDR-05/06 producible RF hardware.
The governing inversion for this document: Palmer's thesis [14:36] is that the datalink is going away. So this is not a "comms subsystem you cannot fly without." It is a bolt-on opportunistic radio + an open networking standard that the autonomy core uses when it happens to be in contact. The platform's primary "network" is the onboard autonomy (Doc 12); RF is a bonus. We design RF to add value when present and to add zero risk when absent.
1. Architecture Overview — Comms as a Bolt-On, Not a Backbone
1.1 The four communication "states" WILDFIRE flies in
| State | RF posture | Capability | When used |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMCON-0 (Silent) | All TX off; RX optionally on (listen-only) | Full mission: launch → ingress → vision-nav → target ID → terminal → effect/recovery, 100% onboard (DDR-01/02) | Default in contested EW. Deep strike. Any time link is unavailable or denied. |
| EMCON-1 (Burst) | Brief LPI/LPD pop-ups (status/track exhaust, position reports) | Onboard mission + intermittent track sharing & telemetry | Permissive-to-grey airspace; mesh re-sync; pre-/post-strike BDA squirt |
| EMCON-2 (Mesh) | Continuous low-power directional mesh among co-located platforms | Swarm coordination, distributed sensing, sensor-to-shooter cueing (DDR-14) | Swarm ops, BACKFIRE engagements, ISR overwatch in low-threat EW |
| EMCON-3 (Reachback) | Mesh + optional SATCOM gateway | Operator situational awareness, human-on-the-loop ROE messaging (DDR-18), retasking, video squirt | Permissive airspace, training, demo/shoot-off (DDR-19), oversight requirement |
Hard rule (DDR-01/04): every capability above EMCON-0 is additive. No function in EMCON-0 depends on a radio ever turning on. The radio can be physically absent (a mass/cost-stripped EMCON-0-only build) and the airframe still completes its mission and still returns home for recovery, refuel, rearm, and reuse (DDR-15). The deletable item is the radio module, never the airframe — WILDFIRE is recoverable and reusable in every configuration; a one-way airframe is, in Palmer's words, "a total folly" [20:22]. Recovery itself requires no radio (see §1.3).
1.2 Block diagram (logical)
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ AUTONOMY CORE (Doc 12, Faraday bay) │
│ vision_pipeline → pose/scene → guidance │
│ → MPC/RL control → mavsdk_bridge (MAVLink)│
└───────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
│ internal optical data bus (DDR-10)
│ publishes/consumes COMMON TRACK MSGs
┌───────────────▼───────────────┐
│ OPEN-NET MIDDLEWARE (s/w) │ ← the DDR-14 heart
│ • Common Track Format (CTF) │
│ • pub/sub bus, store-fwd │
│ • ROE/geofence/abort gate │
│ • crypto, replay protect │
└───┬───────────┬─────────────┬──┘
│ │ │
┌─────────▼──┐ ┌─────▼──────┐ ┌───▼────────────┐
│ SDR MESH │ │ SATCOM │ │ (DATALINK NONE) │
│ (primary │ │ (optional │ │ valid config — │
│ opportun.) │ │ gateway) │ │ no radio fitted│
└─────────────┘ └─────────────┘ └────────────────┘
The Open-Net Middleware is the load-bearing element of DDR-14, and it is transport-agnostic by design: it runs identically whether the bytes move over the SDR mesh, SATCOM, a maintenance Ethernet cable on the ramp, or — critically — never leave the airframe at all (in EMCON-0 the same Common Track Format objects flow only on the internal bus between the onboard sensors and the onboard effector logic). "Every sensor a sensor for every effector" is first satisfied inside a single airframe, then extended across the mesh.
1.3 Reuse note — the recovery-coordination link is OPTIONAL (DDR-15)
WILDFIRE is recoverable and reusable every sortie (DDR-15): the airframe, seeker, and Thor-class compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition (if released) is expended. A natural question is whether recovery puts a radio back on the critical path. It does not. Recovery is designed to be RF-optional just like the mission:
- Skyhook-cable recovery (Rev B baseline, per Doc 18 / brief §3.1) is a vision-guided terminal capture executed by the same
vision_pipeline.pyPnP-pose solve used for navigation and terminal homing (DDR-02). The airframe visually acquires the recovery boom/cable and flies the capture geometry with zero RF dependence — exactly the EMCON-0 capability ladder of §5 extended through the recovery phase. Parachute+airbag is the all-passive alternate; VTOL recovery is a trade (brief §3.1). - A recovery-coordination link (e.g., a short EMCON-1/2 burst on egress: "inbound, fuel state X, intend Skyhook lane 2, ETA T") is a convenience that shortens turnaround, not a requirement. When the mesh is up it lets the recovery crew pre-stage the boom and sequence multiple inbound ships, helping hold the ≤30-min refuel+rearm turnaround KPP (DDR-15). When the mesh is down, WILDFIRE recovers autonomously on vision alone and the crew works it visually — the only cost is a slightly longer turnaround, never a lost airframe.
- The abort/recall RX (listen-only, available even in EMCON-0, §6.2) doubles as a recovery-divert channel: the operator can wave a ship off a fouled recovery lane with a single signed message the airframe can receive without emitting. This is positive control over a $≤150k reusable asset, not a flight-critical datalink.
Net: the comms layer enables faster, better-coordinated reuse when present and imposes zero reuse risk when absent. Recovery, like the strike, is mission-complete with every radio OFF.
2. The Open Networking Layer (DDR-14) — Common Track Format & Sensor-to-Shooter
This is the most important section of the document and the primary reason it exists. Palmer is explicit that the hard problem is not the screen — it is the data model:
[31:23] "we're doing a number of things both on like the unified command and control interface side, which is like the part you actually see with your eyeballs. That's actually not the hardest part. The hardest part is all of these totally different communication standards, the way that tracks are represented… To build something that can take all of these different things and put it into one common layer, it's extremely difficult."
[31:56] "There are standards being put in place as to what a track actually is… like how you represent even the vector of a target and like how regularly you update it to be considered high quality enough to actually even report that vector… but right now it is it is a horrible wild west."
Our design response is to make WILDFIRE/BACKFIRE a good citizen of the emerging open standard, not the author of a new stovepipe — exactly the failure mode Palmer warns against: "no manufacturers are allowed to stovepipe their stuff into their specific system" [17:33].
2.1 Standards strategy — adopt, don't invent
| Layer | Adopted open standard (baseline) | Rationale / DDR |
|---|---|---|
| Track / data model | Profile of an open track standard — baseline target: a constrained profile compatible with the U.S. open C2 efforts (e.g., the open track interfaces being standardized for integrated air & missile defense) + a JSON/CBOR-on-the-wire encoding for the WILDFIRE-native bus | DDR-14 "common data format… open interoperable standards." We define a profile, not a new format. [TBR] exact umbrella standard pending program ICD. |
| Sensor-to-shooter messaging | Publish/subscribe track exchange with explicit track quality / vector-freshness fields (directly answering Palmer's [32:07] "how regularly you update it to be considered high quality enough") | DDR-14 |
| Transport / network | IP-over-mesh (DTN-style store-and-forward for intermittent links); link-layer is SDR-defined | DDR-01 (intermittent-tolerant) |
| Physical/RF interop | Software-defined radio re-tunable across negotiated bands; gateway translation to legacy links handled off-board | [31:46] "a lot of physical interoperability layers… radios on different frequencies… different physical transport layers." We push translation to a ground/edge gateway, not onto the cheap airframe. |
| C2 / human interface | Conforms to a Lattice-style open C2 picture as a consumer, not a captive | DDR-14, DDR-17 |
Design principle (DFM-of-software, DDR-17): WILDFIRE ships an open ICD for its Common Track Format. Any allied sensor or effector that speaks the profile can cue it or be cued by it. We do not ship a proprietary SDK that locks integrators in. This is the literal engineering instantiation of [17:38] "It has to be open interoperable standards, just like we've seen the domestic commercial technology industry develop for things like web interoperability."
2.2 Common Track Format (CTF) — message schema (WILDFIRE profile, illustrative)
The CTF object is the atomic unit. Every onboard sensor produces it; every onboard/networked effector consumes it. Schema is small on purpose (producibility + low bandwidth + low LPI footprint).
TRACK {
track_id : uuid // globally unique, originator-stamped
originator_id : platform/sensor id
time_utc : int64 µs // monotonic, GPS-free clock OK (DDR-04)
classification : enum {UNKNOWN, AIR, GROUND, SURFACE, DECOY, FRIEND, HOSTILE, ...}
state_vector : { pos[3], vel[3], frame } // frame may be LOCAL/SCENE-relative when GPS-denied
covariance : 6x6 (compressed) // honesty about uncertainty
track_quality : 0..255 // freshness × covariance × source confidence ← [32:07]
update_rate_hz : float // declared, so consumers can gate on it ← [32:09]
source_modality : enum {EO, IR, RF-ESM, ACOUSTIC, FUSED, ...}
id_confidence : 0..1
roe_flags : { engage_authorized, human_confirmed, geofence_ok } // DDR-18
}
EFFECT_REQUEST / EFFECT_REPORT, CONTACT (own-ship pos), TASKING, ABORT,
RECOVERY_INTENT (fuel state, recovery mode, lane, ETA — DDR-15, optional) // sibling msg types
GPS-denied honesty (DDR-02/04): because WILDFIRE navigates by vision, not GPS, the state_vector.frame is frequently SCENE-relative (a pose from vision_pipeline.py's PnP solve), not WGS-84. CTF carries the frame explicitly so a consuming effector knows whether it is getting an absolute geodetic fix or a relative bearing/range from a known landmark. This is a real interop subtlety that pure GPS-era track formats elide; we surface it rather than fake an absolute fix.
Bandwidth: a CTF track is ~80–140 bytes uncompressed, ~40–70 bytes after CBOR + delta-coding. A swarm of 16 sharing 20 tracks each at 2 Hz ≈ 16×20×60 B×2 = ~38 kB/s aggregate — trivially within a low-power mesh and easily burst-able for LPI. [TBR] by waveform selection.
2.3 "Every sensor a sensor for every effector" — three concentric scopes
- Intra-airframe (always, even EMCON-0): WILDFIRE's own EO/IR gimbal, nav cameras, and any ESM payload publish CTF onto the internal optical bus; the onboard effector logic (warhead arming, divert, or BACKFIRE seeker hand-off) subscribes. This is the minimum viable DDR-14 and it requires no radio.
- Intra-swarm (EMCON-2): WILDFIRE ships act as a distributed sensor field. A ship that sees a target it cannot service publishes the CTF; a better-positioned ship (or a BACKFIRE interceptor) subscribes and prosecutes. No human hand-off — "passing off tracks seamlessly without a human having to hand those over manually" [17:25].
- Force-level (EMCON-3 / off-board): the same CTF objects, gatewayed to the open C2 picture, let any external sensor (ground radar, another platform, satellite cue) task WILDFIRE/BACKFIRE, and let WILDFIRE's sensors feed any external effector. This is the BACKFIRE sensor-to-shooter use case (Doc 20): BACKFIRE "ingests tracks from ANY sensor via open standard; cues to ANY effector."
2.4 BACKFIRE sensor-to-shooter chain (DDR-14 primary case)
External/forward sensor (CTF) ─┐
WILDFIRE swarm sensor (CTF) ──┤→ Open-Net mesh → BACKFIRE on-CAP
Ground radar (gatewayed CTF) ──┘ │
▼
BACKFIRE fuses CTF + own seeker → intercept
BACKFIRE EFFECT_REPORT (CTF) → force picture → reuse cycle
BACKFIRE's whole value proposition (reusable, ≪$20k/shot) depends on being cued by somebody else's sensor so it does not waste fuel searching. The open CTF mesh is what makes a cheap interceptor lethal: it borrows the eyes of the entire force. If the mesh is down, BACKFIRE falls back to autonomous search on its own seeker (degraded but functional — DDR-01 still holds for the variant).
3. RF Hardware — Opportunistic SDR Mesh & Optional SATCOM (DDR-01/03/17)
3.1 Make/buy posture: COTS SDR, no exquisite datalink ("Don't build the Batmobile")
Per DDR-17 and DDR-03, we do not develop a bespoke datalink. We carry a small COTS/MOTS software-defined radio module. Palmer's own cost framing applies [15:29]: a "crappy radio" is cheaper than the compute, and the compute is already a rounding error — so the radio is a true rounding error. We spend our scarce dollars on the autonomy and survivability, not on a gold-plated link.
| Item | Baseline selection | Notes / DDR |
|---|---|---|
| Mesh SDR | Single COTS MIMO SDR module, sub-6 GHz tunable, MANET/mesh firmware | DDR-03/17. ~$300–600 class. Re-flashable waveform = future-proof against DDR-04 jamming evolution. |
| Antennas | 2–3 conformal/blade, low-gain omni for mesh + 1 modest directional patch for burst reachback | Conformal to protect RCS & survivability (Doc 13). |
| SATCOM (optional, modular) | Small LEO/commercial SATCOM terminal as a payload-bay module, not core | DDR-13 payload-modular; fitted only for ISR/overwatch builds needing reachback. |
| HPM/EMP protection | RF front-end behind limiters + the antenna is a deliberate aperture into the Faraday bay; transient suppression on the feed | DDR-10 [18:17]. Interface owned with Doc 13. The radio is the one intentional hole in the Faraday enclosure and is treated as a hardening risk item. |
| Crypto | COTS AES-256 link encryption + signed CTF objects (origin auth, anti-spoof, replay window) | DDR-04/18. Keys provisioned at build/load; no over-the-air rekey dependency. |
Producibility (DDR-05/06): the SDR is a single bolt-in module on a standard connector with a software-defined waveform. Line training to install/test it is minutes, well inside the ≤1-week line-training KPP (DDR-06). A radio-less EMCON-0-only build simply omits the module and blanks the connector — a pure deletion, no redesign, and the airframe remains fully recoverable and reusable (DDR-15); only the radio is gone, not the come-home capability.
3.2 Why SDR (and not a fixed radio)
A software-defined radio lets the same physical airframe meet DDR-04's open-ended jam-resistance demand by re-flashing the waveform as the threat evolves, and lets it meet DDR-14's physical-interop demand ([31:46] "radios on different frequencies… different physical transport layers") by retuning to whatever band the friendly mesh is using that day. It is the cheapest way to avoid obsolescence without building an exquisite link. This is squarely inside the "in-cycle, fundable, deployable" discipline of DDR-17.
4. LPI/LPD & EMCON Behavior (DDR-04)
Palmer's anti-jam requirement [15:54] is about navigation as much as comms — and Doc 12 already removes the RF dependency from nav. This document's job is to ensure that when the radio does transmit, it is as hard to detect, jam, and exploit as practical, and that being jammed costs the mission nothing.
4.1 LPI/LPD techniques (layered, all COTS-achievable)
| Technique | Effect | Cost posture |
|---|---|---|
| Default EMCON-0 (silent) | Best LPI is no emission. The mission needs no link. | Free — it's the architecture |
| Burst / short dwell (EMCON-1) | Sub-second pop-ups for track squirt; low intercept probability | SDR firmware |
| Spread spectrum (DSSS/FHSS), low PSD | Energy below noise floor to a non-cooperative receiver | SDR firmware |
| Power management | Mesh runs at minimum power to close the link to nearest neighbor; range-adaptive | SDR firmware |
| Directionality where available | Patch/steered beam for reachback reduces sidelobe leakage | Modest HW |
| Emission budget governor | Onboard policy caps duty cycle by threat state; ties to EMCON state machine | Software |
4.2 EMCON state machine (autonomy-governed, DDR-18 auditable)
The airframe selects its EMCON state autonomously based on threat assessment, mission phase, and standing ROE — but every state change is logged and bounded (DDR-18). The operator can set a ceiling (e.g., "never exceed EMCON-1 this sortie"); the autonomy may go quieter than the ceiling on its own initiative but never noisier.
LAUNCH(EMCON per orders) → INGRESS(default EMCON-0 in threat) →
ON-STATION(mesh up if swarm & EW permissive → EMCON-2) →
TERMINAL(forced EMCON-0; no emissions to telegraph attack) →
EGRESS/BDA(optional EMCON-1 burst; optional RECOVERY_INTENT squirt) →
RECOVER(vision-guided Skyhook capture, EMCON-0-capable; link optional for crew sequencing — DDR-15)
Jam/interference detected at any time → drop to EMCON-0, continue mission AND recovery onboard.
Key behavior: detection of jamming or link loss is a non-event for mission success. The autonomy core does not stall, loiter, or RTB on link loss (unless ROE says so for a specific permissive-airspace sortie). It keeps flying the vision-nav mission. This is the direct engineering expression of [14:46] "more resilient to just have on-board autonomy do basically everything."
5. Zero-Comms Graceful Degradation (DDR-01/04) — the Capability Ladder
This table is the contract the rest of the program signs: what is lost, and only what is lost, as the network disappears. Nothing in the "lost" column is mission-critical.
| Capability | EMCON-3 (full link) | EMCON-2 (mesh) | EMCON-1 (burst) | EMCON-0 (silent) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vision navigation (Doc 12) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Terminal target ID & homing | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Onboard ROE/geofence/abort | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Lateral divert / survivability | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Effect / warhead release | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ (per pre-loaded ROE) |
| RTB + vision-guided recovery (DDR-15) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ (airframe always comes home) |
| Recovery-crew coordination / lane sequencing | ✓ | ✓ | (burst) | manual/visual (slower turnaround only) |
| Intra-swarm track sharing | ✓ | ✓ | (burst) | onboard-only |
| BACKFIRE external cueing | ✓ | ✓ | (burst) | own-seeker search |
| Live operator video / SA | ✓ | (mesh-relayed) | (squirt) | recorded, post-flight |
| Human-on-the-loop confirm (DDR-18) | ✓ | ✓ | (if window) | pre-authorized ROE only |
| In-flight retasking | ✓ | ✓ | (limited) | no (flies last orders) |
The genuinely degraded items at EMCON-0 are (a) live human-on-the-loop confirmation, (b) in-flight retasking, and (c) recovery-crew lane sequencing (which only slows turnaround, never loses the airframe). (a) and (b) are handled by pre-mission ROE loading (§6); (c) reverts to visual handling on the ramp (§1.3). The platform never "fails" without comms; it reverts to executing its authorized mission with onboard judgment — and still flies home for recovery and reuse (DDR-15) — exactly as a pilot with a dead radio would continue a briefed mission and recover his aircraft.
6. Bounded Autonomy & Human-on-the-Loop Messaging (DDR-18)
[33:01] "I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI."
DDR-18 makes autonomy bounded, testable, auditable. The comms/C2 layer is where the human stays on the loop when a link exists, and where the bounds are baked in so they hold when it does not.
6.1 Three control regimes
| Regime | Link state | Lethal release authority | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|
| Human-on-the-loop | Link present (EMCON-2/3) | Human can confirm or veto within a decision window; veto always wins | CTF EFFECT_REQUEST → operator console → human_confirmed flag set/cleared; abort is a single dominant message |
| Pre-authorized ROE | Link absent (EMCON-0/1) | Autonomy may release only against pre-validated target classes inside a pre-validated geofence/time-box | ROE constraint set loaded & cryptographically signed pre-launch; checked every cycle by the Open-Net middleware gate |
| Deterministic abort | Any | Always available; default-safe | Onboard watchdog: low confidence, geofence breach, ROE expiry, or explicit abort → safe the weapon / divert / self-terminate per orders |
6.2 The abort/positive-control message is sacrosanct
Per DDR-18, the abort path is the one message guaranteed dominant: it is highest QoS on the mesh, idempotent, and additionally available via a listen-only RX even in EMCON-0 (the airframe can transmit nothing yet still receive a signed abort/recall) — a deliberate one-way asymmetry that preserves silence while preserving human override. If no abort and no link, the autonomy enforces the loaded ROE and the deterministic safe-states. No emission is ever required to stop the platform doing harm.
6.3 Auditability (testability for the shoot-off, DDR-19)
Every CTF object, every EMCON transition, every ROE check, and every release/veto/abort is timestamped and written to onboard non-volatile log (and squirted up when a link exists). This produces a deterministic, replayable decision trace — the "testable, auditable" half of DDR-18 — and is the instrumentation needed to prove behavior at an instrumented live shoot-off (DDR-19). The autonomy is "dumb" in Palmer's safe sense: it does exactly and only what its signed ROE permits, and it shows its work.
6.4 Delegation model (consistent with Palmer's own management doctrine)
Palmer's [30:30] anecdote — directing a team, then trusting it to execute without micromanagement — is the human-machine teaming model we adopt: the operator tasks intent and bounds, then the airframe executes autonomously, reporting by exception. The link exists to re-task and to veto, not to fly the drone. This keeps the human meaningfully in command (DDR-18) without putting a man-in-the-loop datalink on the critical path (DDR-01).
7. Contrast with Lattice-Style C2 (conceptual)
Palmer/Anduril's Lattice is the reference unified-C2-picture concept. WILDFIRE's relationship to it is deliberate and bounded by DDR-17:
| Dimension | Lattice-style force-level C2 | WILDFIRE/BACKFIRE Open-Net layer (this doc) |
|---|---|---|
| Scope | Force-wide fusion, the "unified command and control interface… the part you actually see with your eyeballs" [31:25] | Per-platform + per-swarm track production/consumption that feeds such a picture |
| The hard problem | Reconciling "all of these totally different communication standards… what even a track actually is" [31:30] into "one common layer" | Be a clean, standards-conformant source/sink so the fusion layer's job is easy — never a new stovepipe |
| Dependency | Network-centric by nature | Network-optional by mandate (DDR-01) — fully degrades to onboard |
| Where the screen lives | Operator C2 console (off-board) | WILDFIRE has no screen; it emits CTF the console can render |
| Our posture | Consumer/producer, not owner | We conform to and enrich the open picture; we don't replicate it onboard |
Design intent: WILDFIRE is to the C2 picture what a well-behaved web service is to a browser — it speaks the open protocol, exposes a clean ICD, and adds no proprietary lock-in. That is the literal reading of [17:38] "open interoperable standards, just like we've seen the domestic commercial technology industry develop for things like web interoperability." The fusion/HMI layer is explicitly out of scope for this airframe document (it is force-level, off-board, and per DDR-17 not something a ≤$150k reusable airframe should carry — that compute and screen live on the ground, where they are themselves reused across the whole fleet).
8. Key Trades & Producibility Implications
| Trade | Options | Decision | DDR rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Datalink criticality | (a) link-required C2 vs (b) RF-optional | (b) RF-optional | DDR-01/04 — non-negotiable. The whole program thesis. |
| Radio sourcing | bespoke exquisite datalink vs COTS SDR | COTS SDR module | DDR-03/17 — radio is a rounding error; don't build the Batmobile |
| Track format | invent WILDFIRE format vs adopt open profile | Adopt/profile open standard | DDR-14 — "no stovepipe," open interop |
| Physical interop translation | onboard multi-radio vs off-board gateway | Off-board gateway | DDR-17 — keep cheap airframe simple; [31:46] handled at edge |
| Encoding | verbose XML-style vs compact CBOR | CBOR + delta | LPI bandwidth + DDR-04; cheap to parse on edge compute |
| EMCON control | operator-driven vs autonomy-governed w/ ceiling | Autonomy-governed, operator ceiling | DDR-04 (react at machine speed) + DDR-18 (bounded) |
| Lethal authority offline | no offline release vs pre-authorized ROE | Pre-authorized ROE + deterministic abort | DDR-18 bounded autonomy; DDR-01 no link dependency |
| SATCOM | always-fitted vs modular | Modular payload option | DDR-13/17 — mass/cost only when mission needs reachback |
| Recovery coordination | RF-required recovery vs vision-guided + optional link | Vision-guided recovery; coordination link optional | DDR-15 + DDR-01 — reuse must not put a radio on the critical path; link only speeds turnaround |
Manufacturing note (DDR-05/06): the comms suite is one COTS SDR module + 2–3 conformal antennas on a wiring harness — assembly primitives already inside the automotive/ag bill-of-process (connectorize, fasten, test). No exquisite RF fabrication. Optional SATCOM and the radio-less strike build are pure module add/delete, requiring no structural change. Line-training impact: negligible against the ≤1-week KPP.
9. Open Issues / [TBR] / [TBD]
- [TBR] Track standard selection. The exact umbrella open standard (and our conformant profile) is pending the program ICD; Palmer notes the field is "a horrible wild west" [32:15] with "standards being put in place" [31:56]. We commit to a published open standard, not which one, at concept stage.
- [TBR] Waveform & band plan. LPI/LPD waveform, FHSS/DSSS parameters, mesh band, and resulting power/range are propulsion-of-RF analysis items. Aggregate mesh bandwidth (~38 kB/s for 16-ship) is a first-order estimate.
- [TBR] Antenna/Faraday interface. The RF aperture is the deliberate hole in the HPM-hardened Faraday bay (Doc 13). The limiter/attenuation budget and the residual HPM coupling through the feed need EM analysis jointly with Survivability.
- [TBR] SATCOM terminal SWaP-C. Mass/power/cost below are for the optional LEO terminal as a payload module; final selection [TBD].
- [TBD] Crypto/key management CONOPS (build-time vs depot load) and ROE-signing PKI authority — coordinate with Doc 17 (V&V) and program security.
- [TBR] Mesh scaling. Behavior of the CTF pub/sub mesh at large swarm sizes (>50 ships) and DTN store-forward under heavy intermittency needs simulation; AIGP heritage stack (
mavsdk_bridge.py) covers single-ship MAVLink today, not the multi-ship mesh — that is new software to be built and tested for the shoot-off (DDR-19). - [TBR] Recovery-coordination link interface (DDR-15). The
RECOVERY_INTENTmessage and multi-ship recovery-lane sequencing protocol are defined here as optional convenience; the actual hand-shake with the recovery system (Skyhook boom controller / VTOL pad) and the turnaround-time benefit it buys are owned jointly with Doc 18 (Recovery & Reuse). Vision-only EMCON-0 recovery is the validated-to-design fallback; the link's measured turnaround improvement is to be demonstrated at the reuse-cycle shoot-off (DDR-19). No flight-safety case depends on the link.
Budget contribution
Scope: the opportunistic comms hardware fitted to a baseline WILDFIRE. The Open-Net middleware is software running on the existing autonomy compute (Doc 12) — it adds no mass and negligible incremental power/cost. SATCOM is an optional payload module and is reported separately (not counted in baseline rollup).
- Mass: ~0.9 kg (baseline mesh fit; counts toward WILDFIRE MTOW)
- COTS SDR mesh module: ~0.45 kg
- Antennas (2–3 conformal/blade) + RF cabling/connectors: ~0.25 kg
- Crypto/transient-protection + mounting/harness: ~0.20 kg
-
Optional SATCOM payload module (NOT in baseline): +1.5–2.5 kg [TBR] — drawn from the up-to-25 kg modular payload budget (brief §3.1), not added to empty weight
-
Power (cruise / peak): 8 W / 30 W
- Cruise = default EMCON-0/1, RX + intermittent low-power mesh: ~8 W
- Peak = continuous EMCON-2 mesh TX or EMCON-3 burst reachback: ~30 W
-
Optional SATCOM active: +25–40 W peak [TBR], on the payload power budget
-
Unit cost (volume): ~$650 (contribution to WILDFIRE flyaway)
- COTS SDR mesh module (volume): ~$400 [TBR]
- Antennas + RF harness + connectors: ~$120
- Crypto/transient protection + integration: ~$130
- Open-Net middleware: amortized NRE software, ~$0 marginal per unit (runs on existing compute)
- Radio-less EMCON-0-only build: subtract ~$650, ~0.9 kg, ~30 W — a clean deletion of the radio. The airframe stays recoverable/reusable (DDR-15); no come-home capability is removed.
-
Optional SATCOM module (volume): +$2,000–4,000 [TBR], charged to ISR-variant payload, not baseline.
-
Reuse impact (DDR-15):
- Positive, optional accelerator — never on the critical path. The comms hardware is recovered with the airframe every sortie (it is part of the avionics that "comes home"), so it amortizes over the ≥50-sortie reuse life like the rest of the airframe; its ~$650 contributes ≤~$13/sortie at 50 sorties — negligible against the ≤~$3k/sortie target.
- Turnaround: the optional EMCON-1/2
RECOVERY_INTENTsquirt and ground mesh let the recovery crew pre-stage the Skyhook boom and sequence multiple inbound ships, directly supporting the ≤30-min refuel+rearm turnaround KPP. Loss of the link costs turnaround minutes (manual/visual recovery), never the airframe. - Recovery is RF-optional: Skyhook capture is vision-guided (
vision_pipeline.py, DDR-02); recovery completes in EMCON-0. No radio is required to bring the reusable airframe + seeker + compute home (DDR-01/15). - Reuse-life qualification: every CTF object, EMCON transition, and ROE/abort check is logged to onboard NVM (§6.3) and squirted up when a link exists — this telemetry feeds the post-sortie health-monitoring / reuse-qualification record (Doc 18) without requiring an in-flight link.
-
No comms hardware is consumed per sortie; the only expended item program-wide remains the munition.
-
Assumptions / [TBR]:
- Open-Net middleware reuses autonomy compute headroom (Doc 12); no dedicated comms processor (DDR-03/17). [TBR] confirm compute headroom in integration.
- SDR cost/mass per COTS class consistent with Palmer's "crappy radio" being cheaper than the $300 chip [15:29]; pin to vendor at design review.
- HPM coupling through the RF aperture is an open survivability interface item (Doc 13) — may drive added limiter mass [TBR].
- All numbers are design targets/estimates; no validated test data. Mesh-scaling and waveform performance to be demonstrated at the instrumented shoot-off (DDR-19).
§ 12USAF Comms Suite — Link 16 · SATCOM · MOSA / JADC2
USAF▾
USAF Comms Suite — Link 16 · SATCOM · MOSA / JADC2
USAFDocument owner: Comms / Mission-Systems subsystem (USAF connected-mode build)
Parent baseline: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3.1 (WILDFIRE AGP-1 LOCKED Rev B.1 — 175 kg MTOW, ≤$150k flyaway, Group-3); 15_comms_networking_c2.md (RF-optional architecture, EMCON state machine, Common Track Format); 12_autonomy_compute_software.md (autonomy/PNT core that makes radios-OFF viable); 13_survivability_ew_hardening.md (Faraday bay, the single RF aperture, HPM aperture-short); 02_design_driver_register.md (DDR/REQ traceability).
Status: Concept design. All SWaP-C numbers are vendor-published figures or design targets; quote-gated and integration-gated items carry [TBR] / [TBD]. No validated WILDFIRE flight-test results are claimed. No program-specific WILDFIRE/AGP-1 data exists in open sources — every selection is a current (2025–2026) COTS/program standard applied analytically to WILDFIRE's stated requirements.
Date / currency: Selections current as of June 2026 (2025–2026 products and programs).
What this document is.
15_…owns the program-thesis comms architecture — WILDFIRE is RF-OPTIONAL, fully mission-capable with every radio OFF, and the radio is a deletable bolt-on. This document specializes that architecture for the US Air Force CCA-adjacent mission: it names the actual terminals, waveforms, crypto, and open-standard interfaces WILDFIRE speaks when it does connect, so it is a good citizen of current USAF/JADC2 comms — without ever putting a radio on the critical path. The organizing rule is unchanged: DDR-17 "Don't build the Batmobile" — current-and-fielded at cost, US-origin or close-allied, MOSA, exportable where possible — layered on top of the EMCON-first posture of DDR-01/04.
0. DDR traceability (what this document satisfies)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey) | How this document responds |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-01 [14:36] "…cheaper, better, faster, more resilient to just have on-board autonomy do basically everything." | The entire USAF suite is opportunistic / connect-mode only. Every radio below is fitted to a MOSA card slot that can be omitted for a comms-stripped EMCON-0 build (15_… §3.1). Nothing in §3–§5 is on the flight-critical path; the autonomy core (12_…) flies, fights, and recovers with all of it OFF. |
|
| DDR-04 [15:54] "completely resistant to all jamming systems, not just communications, but also navigation." | Every selected link is anti-jam by waveform: Link 16 (TDMA + FHSS + TRANSEC), SATURN UHF (TOD/WOD hopping), and the connect-mode SATCOM modem targets PTW (the USAF/USSF anti-jam SATCOM standard). The assured-PNT spine (M-code GPS + CRPA + the photonic-gyro INS of 19_…/12_…) is what keeps crypto/TDMA time-sync alive through jamming so the radios can re-enter the net — and is what makes radios-OFF survivable when they cannot. |
|
| DDR-14 [17:02] "open interoperable standards… no… stovepipe." | The connected stack is built on the USAF-native open standards: A-GRA (the 2026 USAF CCA autonomy reference architecture), OMS/UCI (mission-system + machine-to-machine C2), SOSA/FACE subset profiles for the comms/EW cards, and STANAG 4586 for NATO/coalition GCS interoperability — all under the MOSA mandate (Jan 30 2025 Tri-Service memo). Data-link cards are swappable MOSA modules. §6. | |
| DDR-17 [36:54] "…in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed… don't build the Batmobile." | We lead with the smallest fielded USAF-standard terminals (Viasat/L3Harris KOR-24A STT for Link 16; ARC-210-class SDR for SATURN/MUOS) and explicitly reject MADL and full MIDS-JTRS as SWaP/cost/ITAR Batmobiles for a Group-3 airframe — reaching the 5th-gen mesh through ABMS gatewayONE/BACN, not by carrying their hardware. §7 lists the killed candidates. | |
| DDR-03 [14:53] "a \$300 chip is not the thing driving that price." | The waveforms (SATURN, MUOS, future PTW, future CNSA-2.0 PQC) are software loads on SDRs — re-flashable, not new boxes. Compute/crypto remains a rounding error against the airframe; the cost driver is the Type-1 COMSEC + Link 16 terminal, which we minimize by terminal choice. | |
| DDR-10 [18:17] HPM/EMP | The radios are the one intentional aperture into the Faraday bay (13_… §4); under HPM threat the feed is shorted to the Faraday wall and the mission continues radios-OFF. The USAF suite inherits this — connectivity loss is a non-event. |
|
| DDR-18 [33:01] bounded autonomy | The connect-mode link carries the human-on-the-loop / abort traffic (15_… §6); when absent, the airframe enforces pre-loaded, cryptographically-signed ROE. Type-1/CSfC crypto here is what makes that signed-ROE and abort channel trustworthy. |
1. Rationale — "RF-optional, but standards-compliant when connected"
1.1 The governing inversion (inherited from 15_…)
WILDFIRE's primary "network" is its onboard autonomy (12_…); RF is a bonus. So this is not a comms subsystem the airframe cannot fly without. But the platform is US Air Force first, CCA/Collaborative-Combat-Aircraft adjacent — and a CCA that can connect MUST, when it does, speak the current USAF tactical picture: Link 16, SATURN UHF voice, protected SATCOM, and the JADC2/ABMS open-architecture stack. The design problem is therefore two-faced:
- EMCON-0 (silent) is the default and the survivable core — radios off, autonomy-first, jam-immune because there is nothing to jam (DDR-01/04). This is owned by
12_…/15_…. - Connect-mode (EMCON-1/2/3) must be standards-clean — when WILDFIRE emits, it is a fielded, crypto-current, MOSA-open node of the USAF battle network. This document owns the connect-mode build.
The reconciliation is SWaP discipline + modularity: pick the smallest fielded terminals that carry the required standard, mount them on MOSA-swappable cards, and treat the whole suite as deletable. Worst case (comms-stripped build) you lose connectivity and lose nothing else.
1.2 "Current USAF standards" — what WILDFIRE must speak in 2026
- Primary tactical data link = Link 16 (MIL-STD-6016 / TADIL-J), Crypto-Modernized. This is the non-negotiable USAF/coalition interoperability baseline; the NSA Link 16 Crypto Modernization (CMI/CryptoMod) mandate is in force (effective 1 Jan 2022 — legacy-crypto terminals are sunset) [LK1][LK2][CM1]. Anduril's YFQ-44A Fury (CCA Increment 1) is publicly Link-16-compatible, confirming Link 16 as the CCA baseline [CCA1].
- UHF anti-jam voice = SATURN (2nd-gen Anti-jam Tactical UHF Radio for NATO), the NATO-mandated replacement for Have Quick II — loaded on a modern SDR, not legacy HQII alone [HQ1].
- Narrowband BLOS = MUOS (UHF WCDMA MILSATCOM), hosted on the same SDR; the ARC-210 was the first airborne radio certified on full MUOS [MU1][AR1].
- Wideband/contested BLOS target = PTW/PTES (Protected Tactical Waveform) — the emerging USAF/USSF anti-jam SATCOM standard, riding WGS-Ka and "PTW-over-Commercial," operational ~2028 [PT1][PT2]. WILDFIRE targets it as a future modem load, not day-one hardware.
- Architecture = A-GRA + OMS/UCI + SOSA/FACE + STANAG 4586, all under MOSA — the 2026 USAF CCA open-standards family (A-GRA flight-demonstrated Feb–Mar 2026 across YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A) [AG1][AG2][OM1][MO1].
- Crypto = Type-1 (Link 16/MUOS) + CSfC-first for the exportable variant, designed CNSA-2.0 / PQC-ready now (CNSA 2.0 hard gate for new NSS acquisitions: 1 Jan 2027) [CR1][CN1].
1.3 The "exportable where possible" two-tier build
Link 16 CryptoMod, MUOS, and M-code keying are NSA Type-1 / ITAR (USML Cat XI) — exportable only via FMS with coalition/degraded variants; MADL is effectively non-exportable (do not baseline it). So WILDFIRE is architected as a two-tier crypto build from the start (the same discipline 15_… applied to the mesh, made explicit for USAF):
- US/Five-Eyes tier: Type-1 Link 16 (STT), MUOS, M-code GPS — full standards compliance for the USAF/coalition customer.
- Exportable tier: swap the Type-1 cards for AES-256 / FIPS 140-3, CSfC-path crypto on the mesh + a Link-16-capable terminal cleared for the partner (the BATS-D AN/PRC-161 is NSA-authorized for Five Eyes / international forces — a useful precedent that Link 16 can be released) [BD1]. CSfC is cheaper, faster, and more exportable than Type-1 and is reserved-down: Type-1 only on the highest-assurance links.
2. Suite architecture (one picture)
EMCON-0 DEFAULT: everything below is OFF; autonomy core flies the mission (12_…)
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
ASSURED PNT SPINE │ AUTONOMY CORE (Thor-class, Faraday bay) │ ← doc 12
(keeps time/crypto │ vision-nav + OMS/UCI mission apps + A-GRA │
sync through jam) │ Open-Net middleware / Common Track Format │ ← doc 15 §2
┌────────────────┐ │ ROE/abort gate (DDR-18) │
│ M-code GPS+CRPA │─────►│ │
│ + photonic INS │ └───┬───────────┬──────────────┬────────────────┘
│ (19_…/12_…) │ │ │ │ MOSA card backplane (SOSA/FACE subset)
└────────────────┘ ▼ ▼ ▼
┌────────────┐ ┌──────────┐ ┌──────────────────────┐
PRIMARY TDL ───────►│ KOR-24A STT│ │ ARC-210- │ │ Multi-band flat-panel │◄── BLOS
(Link 16 + V/UHF) │ (2-ch SDR) │ │ class SDR│ │ ESA + connect-mode │ SATCOM
│ Link 16 + │ │ SATURN + │ │ modem (LEO now; │
│ VHF/UHF LOS│ │ MUOS UHF │ │ PTW-over-WGS target) │
└────────────┘ │ BLOS │ └──────────────────────┘
TEAM MESH ─────────►┌────────────┐ └──────────┘
(LPI/LPD, Blue UAS) │ Silvus SM/ │ cross-cue ↕ (Common Track Format, doc 15 §2)
│ SL-5200 or │ ┌──────────────────────────────────────┐
│ TW-310 │ │ reach 5th-gen MADL/IFDL mesh THROUGH │
└────────────┘ │ ABMS gatewayONE / BACN (off-board) │ ← NOT carried
└──────────────────────────────────────┘
CRYPTO: Type-1 (Link 16/MUOS) US/FVEY tier ‖ AES-256/FIPS 140-3 CSfC exportable tier
designed crypto-agile / CNSA-2.0 (PQC) ready (gate 1 Jan 2027)
3. PRIMARY TACTICAL DATA LINK — Link 16 small-form terminal
The single must-have for "speak current USAF comms when connected." Link 16 is the USAF/coalition interoperability baseline, and the CryptoMod mandate is in force — the terminal must be NSA Crypto-Mod certified (the Viasat STT achieved this ahead of the government mandate) [CM1].
| Recommended (baseline) | Cheaper / exportable alt | Premium / growth alt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | Viasat / L3Harris KOR-24A Small Tactical Terminal (STT) | Viasat BATS-D AN/PRC-161 (handheld Link 16) | MIDS-JTRS (stripped/hosted) → TTNT growth |
| Standard | Link 16 (MIL-STD-6016 / STANAG 5516) + narrowband VHF/UHF + wideband UHF; 2-channel SDR | Link 16 (MIL-STD-6016) — world's only handheld | Link 16 + TACAN, 4-ch SDR; TTNT / CMN-4 growth path |
| Bands | Link 16 969–1206 MHz (L-band); VHF/UHF 30–512 & 762–870 MHz; wideband UHF 225–450 MHz | Link 16 L-band 960–1215 MHz | Link 16 L-band; (TTNT relocating to 2025–2110 MHz) |
| Anti-jam | Full Link 16: TDMA + FHSS (~51 bins, ~77k hops/s) + TRANSEC + jitter | Full Link 16 AJ waveform | Full Link 16 AJ + CMI + Freq-Remap; TTNT high-rate AJ mesh |
| Mass | ~7.5 kg (16–16.5 lb) — ~1/3 of a MIDS-LVT | ~2.4 lb (10 W variant, vendor) [TBR] | legacy MIDS-LVT ~49 lb + ~14 lb PSU — too large for Group-3 as-is |
| Power | 28 VDC (MIL-STD-704F); ~3 A RX / <10 A TX; up to 63 W Link 16 TX | handheld-class [TBR] | fighter-rack class [TBR] |
| Cost | [TBR] (quote; Type-1 COMSEC + ITAR) | [TBR] — lowest; FVEY-releasable | [TBR] — highest |
| Crypto / export | NSA Crypto-Mod certified; Type-1; ITAR USML Cat XI; exportable to approved allies (cleared for Canada CP-140) | Type-1; NSA-authorized for US GPF + Five Eyes / international | Type-1; ITAR; US Navy contract of record |
| Maturity | Fielded/mature — 3,000+ delivered, 43+ platforms, marketed for UAVs/"disadvantaged platforms" | Fielded/mature — 1,000th unit milestone | Fielded on F-15/16/18; primary modern Link 16 terminal of record |
| Cite | [STT1][STT2][CM1] | [BD1][BD2] | [MJ1][TT1] |
Why the KOR-24A STT. It is the only fielded, low-SWaP, 2-channel SDR that gives simultaneous USAF-standard Link 16 AND VHF/UHF LOS in ~7.5 kg — about one-third of a MIDS-LVT — and is explicitly marketed for UAVs and "disadvantaged platforms" (already on Army Apache and Canada CP-140). One box satisfies the "must-speak-Link-16-when-connected" requirement at the smallest credible SWaP for a Group-3 airframe, and being an SDR it accepts future waveform/crypto loads (CNSA-2.0, DDR-04/CR1). It is Crypto-Mod certified, meeting the in-force mandate. This is the clearest "current-and-fielded at cost" answer (DDR-17).
Why the cheaper / exportable alt. The BATS-D AN/PRC-161 is the world's only handheld Link 16 radio and — uniquely — is NSA-authorized for Five Eyes and international forces [BD1]. For the exportable WILDFIRE variant it is the precedent that Link 16 can ship to partners, and its tiny form factor (≈2.4 lb class) is attractive if only Link-16 receive/limited-transmit is needed. Trade: limited public SWaP, lower TX power/throughput than the STT's full 2-channel build.
Why the premium / growth alt. MIDS-JTRS is the terminal of record and the only public path to TTNT (the high-rate, low-latency anti-jam targeting mesh) and CMN-4 concurrent multi-netting. But legacy MIDS-LVT is ~49 lb + ~14 lb PSU — SWaP-prohibitive for Group-3 without a stripped/hosted variant. We carry TTNT/MIDS-JTRS only as a growth target for when manned-unmanned teaming needs time-critical targeting throughput, and reach it through a gateway in the interim.
Rejected as baseline (Batmobile, DDR-17 / DDR-04 export): MADL (Ku-band, Northrop, F-35-locked) — needs multiple conformal phased-array apertures, is stealth-fighter SWaP, classified, and effectively non-exportable; there is no Group-3 MADL terminal. SADL/EPLRS — legacy, being replaced by Link 16 on the A-10 in 2025–2026 (Feb 2026 reporting). WILDFIRE interoperates with the MADL/IFDL 5th-gen mesh through ABMS gatewayONE / BACN, never by carrying those waveforms (§7).
Critical caveat — COMSEC is the real cost/schedule driver, not the radio. Link 16 requires NSA Type-1 crypto and keying (TEK/TRANSEC, CMI-modernized keys) — controlled COMSEC items needing a COMSEC account, key-management plan, and zeroize/EMCON procedures. CSfC does NOT apply to Link 16 (it uses Type-1, not layered commercial crypto). Plan the COMSEC account and key-fill/zeroize CONOPS as a program line item, not a box line item. Exact airborne-STT mass/price for the WILDFIRE build is [TBR] behind a controlled datasheet/quote.
4. RF SPINE — anti-jam UHF voice (SATURN) + narrowband BLOS (MUOS)
A single ARC-210-class MOSA SDR hosts the analog/voice + narrowband-SATCOM needs in one LRU: SATURN (NATO-mandated AJ UHF voice, for CAS/coalition) and MUOS (assured narrowband BLOS when EMCON is relaxed). Both are waveform loads, not new boxes (DDR-03).
| Role | Recommended (baseline) | Cheaper alt | Premium / growth | Mass | Power | Cost | Origin / maturity | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ UHF voice + UHF BLOS SDR host | Collins ARC-210 RT-2036(C)-class SDR (TruNet) — hosts SATURN, MUOS, wideband MANET, legacy V/UHF | L3Harris RF300M-DL (C) SSDL embeddable UAV SDR (SATCOM + LOS, JTRS/SCA) | Dual-channel SDR (e.g., PRC-158-class waveform set) for SATURN + MUOS concurrency | airborne LRU [TBR] (heavier than a pure data-link card; marginal-but-possible on upper Group-3) | [TBR] | [TBR] (quote) | USA — Collins (RTX). Fielded/mature; first airborne SDR certified on full MUOS | [AR1][MU1] |
| Waveform — AJ voice | SATURN (load SATURN, not just HQ II — NATO mandate ~2023) | HQ II only (legacy) | SATURN + future AJ loads | software | software | software | USA/NATO; current NATO mandate | [HQ1] |
| Waveform — narrowband BLOS | MUOS (UHF WCDMA, ≤384 kbit/s; small helical/blade antenna — favorable Group-3 SWaP) | UFO/legacy DAMA UHF | MUOS + SLE (constellation extended to mid-2030s) | small UHF antenna | low | software | USA (Navy-led, LM sats); fielded/operational since 2019 | [MU1][MU2] |
Why the ARC-210-class SDR. It is the fielded USAF airborne SDR that already hosts SATURN + MUOS + MANET in one LRU, and was the first airborne radio certified on full MUOS — so it buys the AJ-voice and narrowband-BLOS standards in a single, low-integration-risk box. Loading SATURN (not just Have Quick II) is the right call because NATO has mandated SATURN; the SDR future-proofs against waveform/crypto evolution (DDR-04/CNSA-2.0). SWaP honesty: the ARC-210 is heavier than a pure data-link card — it is marginal but possible on the upper end of Group-3; if mass is tight, the L3Harris RF300M-DL SSDL (a single-channel embeddable UAV SDR with SATCOM + LOS) is the cheaper/lighter fallback that still gives a resilient airborne SATCOM + LOS link, at the cost of full ARC-210 waveform breadth.
MUOS vs. EMCON. MUOS is narrowband and comparatively easier to jam than EHF/PTW — it is the assured low-rate fallback for when EMCON is relaxed, not a contested-C2 primary. Under jamming/EW the airframe drops to EMCON-0 and flies on autonomy (DDR-01/04); MUOS earns its place as the cheap, small-antenna BLOS path for permissive/grey airspace and oversight.
5. BLOS SATCOM — proliferated LEO primary, protected (PTW) target, on one aperture
Per the verified BLOS research, adopt a tiered SATCOM stack on a single multi-band flat-panel ESA, not a single bearer. None of it is mission-critical (DDR-01) — it is opportunistic wideband connectivity layered on the autonomy core, which is the resilience posture the contested-EW threat rewards.
| Tier | Recommended (baseline) | Cheaper alt | Premium / growth | Notes / AJ | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aperture (one, multi-band) | Kymeta u8 / KuKa-8-series flat-panel ESA (zero moving parts, multi-orbit, MIL-rugged Osprey u8) | Reticulate Micro VALOR low-SWaP UAS ESA | Ball/BAE + Anokiwave K/Ka AESA | ESA gives beam agility, not waveform AJ — AJ comes from the carried waveform. US-origin preferred (exportability). | [KY1][RV1][BA1] |
| Primary high-BW (connect-mode) | Proliferated LEO — Starshield/MILNET-SDN (when DoD-accredited) + commercial multi-vendor pLEO via DISA/SSC CSCO IDIQ (OneWeb Ku, SES/Telesat Ka) | single-vendor commercial Ku pLEO | Starshield MILNET dedicated (IOC ~late-2027) | Resilience by proliferation/multi-orbit + LEO low latency + optical ISLs (LPI); best SWaP-to-throughput for ISR offload; commercial bearers maximize exportability | [SS1][CS1] |
| Contested / anti-jam (growth) | PTW over WGS-Ka + "PTW-over-Commercial" — design the modem to accept PTW/PTES | — | dedicated PTS-P payload service | The emerging USAF/USSF tactical anti-jam SATCOM standard (LPI/LPD, FH/spread); operational ~2028 — the right MOSA target without an AEHF-class terminal | [PT1][PT2] |
| Crypto over commercial bearers | NSA CSfC two-layer (faster/cheaper/exportable) | — | HAIPE/Type-1 for highest assurance | Commercial LEO defaults to commercial encryption; classified traffic needs CSfC overlay (or Type-1 on the top tier) | [CR1] |
Why this shape. pLEO is the best wideband fit for a Group-3 airframe: low latency reduces antenna/EIRP demand, proliferation is the resilience mechanism, and commercial bearers maximize exportability — exactly the cost/export discipline of DDR-17. Carrying it on one US-origin multi-band ESA (Kymeta/Reticulate) keeps SWaP and the RCS/aperture count low (13_…). The connect-mode modem is designed to accept PTW so WILDFIRE grows into the USAF anti-jam SATCOM standard (~2028) without an AEHF/XDR Type-1 terminal — which is correctly treated as a benchmark/interop reference only (its 44/20 GHz FAB-T/SMART-T-class terminals are SWaP-prohibitive for Group-3; no small-UAS AEHF terminal exists).
SATCOM caveats. (1) Flat-panel ESAs are NOT anti-jam waveforms — AJ/LPI comes from the carried waveform (PTW) or is architectural (pLEO proliferation), never from the antenna. (2) Maturity timing: PTW-over-Commercial IOC ~2026 / full ~2028; Starshield MILNET dedicated deployment from mid-2026, IOC ~late-2027; Kymeta KuKa-8 full availability 2027 — these are prototype/transition, so PTW/Starshield are growth, pLEO-commercial is available now. (3) Exact UAS-install mass/W/Mbps are withheld on most ESA datasheets — [TBR] against controlled datasheets before sizing. (4) Prefer US-origin apertures (Kymeta/Reticulate/Ball-BAE) over Gilat (Israel) / Hanwha (UK-SK) for the exportable USAF build.
6. MOSA / OMS / A-GRA / STANAG-4586 compliance (DDR-14) — CCA/JADC2 integration
The connected-mode integration backbone is the 2026 USAF CCA open-standards family, all under the MOSA mandate (Jan 30 2025 Tri-Service Directive Memorandum + Feb 27 2025 DoD CTO MOSA Implementation Guidebook) [MO1]. WILDFIRE is a clean source/sink of the open picture, never a stovepipe (the literal reading of DDR-14).
| Layer | Adopted standard | Role on WILDFIRE | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mission autonomy | A-GRA (Autonomy Government Reference Architecture) | The core 2026 USAF CCA standard — decouples the autonomy "brain" (12_…) from the airframe so it is portable & avoids vendor lock-in. Flight-demonstrated Feb–Mar 2026 on YFQ-42A (Collins "Sidekick") and YFQ-44A (Shield AI "Hivemind"). WILDFIRE's autonomy interfaces are A-GRA-aligned. |
[AG1][AG2] |
| Mission system + M2M C2 | OMS / UCI | OMS = open backplane for plug-and-play mission apps/payloads; UCI = standardized machine-to-machine, mission-level C2 message set. WILDFIRE's payloads (sensor ball, EW pod, effects) and its Common Track Format bus (15_… §2) ride OMS/UCI so new payloads/aircraft interoperate without bespoke integration. |
[OM1] |
| Sensor / EW / comms cards | SOSA Technical Std Ed. 2.0 + FACE (subset profiles for SWaP) | The Link 16 / SDR / SATCOM modem are swappable SOSA/FACE-aligned cards on the mission backplane → tech-refresh & competition without airframe redesign. (Note: full OpenVPX chassis can be heavy for Group-3 — subset profiles needed.) | [SO1] |
| Coalition GCS interop | STANAG 4586 (NATO UAV Control System) | NATO/coalition ground-control-station interoperability (UCS + VSM + HCI, Levels of Interoperability 1–5) — the exportability/coalition layer, distinct from the USAF-native OMS/UCI+A-GRA stack. Already the 19_… sensor C2 standard. |
[ST1] |
| Tactical data link | Link 16 (MIL-STD-6016) | The connected interoperability baseline (§3); lets ABMS gatewayONE/BACN translate WILDFIRE into the 5th-gen MADL/IFDL mesh — so WILDFIRE does not carry MADL. | [LK1] |
| Force-level data fabric | CJADC2 / ABMS (DAF Battle Network) | WILDFIRE is a node feeding the data-centric backbone (cloudONE/meshONE/dataONE); CJADC2 declared "minimum viable capability" Feb 2024. WILDFIRE produces/consumes tracks; the fusion/HMI lives off-board (DDR-17 — not on a ≤$150k airframe; cf. 15_… §7). |
[CJ1] |
MOSA is a standard, not a part (caveat — same as
19_…). Claiming "MOSA/A-GRA/OMS/UCI/SOSA-compliant" requires designing the cards/chassis/interfaces to these specs and, ideally, conformance assessment — it is not conferred by buying any single box above. Carried as a design/verification obligation to17_…(T&E). Also: A-GRA/OMS/UCI are government-owned/AFRL-maintained; the detailed specs and 2025–2026 version numbers are CUI/NDA-gated [TBR] — access requires a government/contractor relationship. Treat exact message-set versions as [TBR] at concept stage.
7. EMCON / anti-jam / zero-comms CONOPS (DDR-01/04)
This document inherits the EMCON state machine and the zero-comms capability ladder verbatim from 15_… §4–§5 and specializes it for the USAF radios:
| EMCON state | USAF-suite posture | What is live |
|---|---|---|
| EMCON-0 (Silent) — DEFAULT | All TX OFF; Link 16/SATURN/MUOS/SATCOM/mesh radios off; abort/recall RX optionally listen-only. Under HPM threat the RF feed is shorted to the Faraday wall (13_…). |
Full mission on autonomy (12_…): vision-nav, target ID, terminal, effect, and RTB/recovery — all radios-off. Assured-PNT spine (M-code+CRPA+INS) keeps time/crypto sync alive for fast net re-entry. |
| EMCON-1 (Burst) | Sub-second LPI Link 16 / mesh pop-ups (track squirt, position, BDA). | Onboard mission + intermittent track sharing (Common Track Format, 15_… §2). |
| EMCON-2 (Mesh) | Continuous low-power LPI/LPD MANET among co-located WILDFIRE/BACKFIRE; Link 16 to manned shooters as permitted. | Swarm coordination, distributed sensing, sensor-to-shooter cueing (DDR-14). |
| EMCON-3 (Reachback) | Mesh + SATURN voice + MUOS/pLEO/PTW SATCOM gateway. | Operator SA, human-on-the-loop ROE (DDR-18), retasking, video squirt. |
Anti-jam layering (DDR-04):
- Waveform-level: Link 16 (TDMA+FHSS+TRANSEC), SATURN (TOD/WOD hopping), PTW (FH/spread/LPI-LPD), MUOS (WCDMA processing gain). Each contested link is anti-jam by design.
- Team-mesh LPI/LPD: a low-SWaP NDAA/Blue-UAS MANET for drone-to-drone/-ground that does not need a Type-1 link — Silvus StreamCaster SL-5200 / SM-5200 (MN-MIMO, Spectrum Dominance 2.0: silent receive, power control, autonomous frequency avoidance, spatial nulling; ~2 W, up to 100 Mbps, NDAA-compliant, exportable) or TrellisWare TW-310 (~48 g, Katana fast-FH ECCM + TSM interoperability) for the tiniest AJ C2 budget. These are supplemental, NOT a USAF tactical-data-link standard — they carry the Common Track Format mesh, not the Link 16 mission picture [SV1][TW1].
- Assured-PNT spine: M-code GPS + CRPA null-steering + the photonic-gyro INS of 12_…/19_…. This is what makes radios-OFF viable (navigate/keep crypto-time through jamming) and what lets the radios re-enter the net after a jam event — the direct expression of DDR-04's "not just communications, but also navigation" [AP1].
- Architectural: EMCON-0 default means the best LPI is no emission, and jam/link-loss is a non-event for mission success (15_… §4.2) — the airframe never stalls, loiters, or RTBs on link loss unless ROE says so.
Zero-comms fallback = the whole point. The USAF suite is additive. A comms-stripped EMCON-0-only WILDFIRE (omit the §3–§5 cards, blank the connectors) is a valid, fully-mission-capable, fully recoverable/reusable build (DDR-15) — the deletable item is always the radio module, never the airframe (15_… §1.1, §3.1).
8. Integration deltas, SWaP-C rollup, and budget
8.1 What this adds over the 15_… baseline
15_… budgeted a generic ~0.9 kg / ~$650 COTS mesh-SDR + antennas as the baseline opportunistic radio. This document upgrades the connect-mode build to fielded USAF-standard terminals for the CCA/USAF customer. The mesh-SDR line of 15_… is retained (it becomes the Silvus/TrellisWare team-mesh of §7); the USAF Link-16 / SATURN-MUOS / SATCOM terminals are added on MOSA cards for the USAF-tier build and omitted for the comms-stripped or exportable-minimal builds.
| Suite element | Mass (each) | Power (peak) | Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Link 16 — KOR-24A STT | ~7.5 kg | up to ~63 W TX Link 16 (28 VDC) | [TBR] (+ Type-1 COMSEC) | The dominant SWaP item; ~1/3 of MIDS-LVT. [STT1] |
| RF spine — ARC-210-class SDR (SATURN+MUOS) | [TBR] (airborne LRU; marginal on upper Group-3) | [TBR] | [TBR] | One LRU = AJ voice + UHF BLOS + MANET host. [AR1] |
| BLOS — multi-band ESA + connect-mode modem | [TBR] (low-SWaP flat panel; UAS install withheld) | [TBR] | [TBR] | pLEO now, PTW target. US-origin. [KY1] |
| Team mesh — Silvus SL/SM-5200 or TW-310 | ~0.18 kg (SM5200) / ~0.048 kg (TW-310) | ~2 W (SM5200) / ~8 W TX (TW-310) | low (COTS) | Carries the 15_… Common Track Format mesh; exportable. [SV1][TW1] |
| Assured-PNT spine (M-code+CRPA) | small array + RX [TBR] | low [TBR] | [TBR] | Shared with 12_…/19_… PNT — not double-counted here. [AP1] |
| Antennas (Link16 L-band blade, UHF helical/blade, ESA), RF harness, crypto/transient protection | ~0.45 kg (carried from 15_…) |
— | ~$250 (carried) | Conformal where possible for RCS (13_…). |
Rollup honesty. The KOR-24A STT alone (~7.5 kg) materially exceeds the entire
15_…baseline comms mass (~0.9 kg) and the ARC-210-class SDR + ESA add more [TBR]. The full USAF-tier suite is a several-kg, several-hundred-watt-peak, six-figure-COMSEC addition — which is acceptable only because it is modular and deletable: it is fitted for the USAF/coalition connected-mode mission and omitted for the comms-stripped or exportable builds. The mass is charged against the payload/avionics budget, not the empty weight that closes at ~174.5 kg; on the upper-Group-3 175 kg airframe the STT + SDR + ESA must be traded against payload per sortie — they are not all carried simultaneously with a full 25 kg strike load (mission-kitted, like the19_…sensor modules). Power fits the airframe generator (11_…~1.0–1.2 kW vs ~621 W bus, 1.6–1.9× margin) with the suite duty-cycled, but the STT 63 W TX + ARC-210 + ESA peaks are a [TBR] load-list item for11_….
8.2 Cost / export deltas
- The cost driver is COMSEC + the Link 16 terminal, not the SDR or compute (DDR-03 holds — compute stays a rounding error). Type-1 COMSEC, key management, and the ITAR/USML-Cat-XI Link 16 terminal are the six-figure, schedule-driving items. Mitigation: (1) the smallest fielded terminal (STT) minimizes the buy; (2) the two-tier crypto build (Type-1 US/FVEY vs CSfC-first exportable) lets the exportable variant ship without Type-1 where releasable; (3) CSfC is cheaper/faster/more exportable and is reserved-down to all but the highest-assurance links; (4) waveforms are SDR software loads, not new boxes.
- Design CNSA-2.0 / PQC-ready now: the 1 Jan 2027 hard gate for new NSS acquisitions means WILDFIRE's crypto modules must be crypto-agile (AES-256, SHA-384/512, ML-KEM-1024, ML-DSA-87) from the start — favoring the programmable SDR crypto already selected [CN1].
8.3 Recovery / reuse (DDR-15)
The USAF radios are recovered with the airframe every sortie (avionics that "comes home") and amortize over the ≥50-sortie reuse life — per-sortie comms-hardware cost is negligible against the ≤~$3k/sortie target. Recovery itself is RF-optional (vision-guided Skyhook, 15_… §1.3 / 18_…); the radios speed turnaround coordination but are never required to bring the asset home.
9. Spec-sheet line + suite summary
One-line comms spec (for the spec sheet):
USAF comms (RF-OPTIONAL / EMCON-first): Crypto-Mod Link 16 via Viasat/L3Harris KOR-24A STT (+VHF/UHF LOS); ARC-210-class SDR hosting SATURN AJ-voice + MUOS UHF BLOS; tiered BLOS SATCOM (proliferated LEO now, PTW-over-WGS/commercial target) on one US-origin multi-band ESA; Silvus/TrellisWare LPI/LPD Blue-UAS team mesh; MOSA / A-GRA / OMS-UCI / SOSA-FACE / STANAG-4586 open architecture; Type-1 (US/FVEY) + CSfC (exportable) two-tier, CNSA-2.0/PQC-ready — fully mission-capable with every radio OFF.
10. Confidence, caveats, and open items
Overall confidence: HIGH on standards identity and the headline terminal SWaP (STT ~7.5 kg, MUOS/SATURN as SDR loads, A-GRA/OMS/UCI/MOSA/STANAG-4586 as the 2026 CCA stack); LOW on price and on most UAS-install SWaP (quote/controlled-datasheet-gated). No WILDFIRE-specific comms data exists in open sources — all selections are general USAF/CCA standards and COTS terminals applied analytically.
Carry-forward caveats:
1. COMSEC/Type-1 is the binding cost & schedule item — needs a COMSEC account, key-mgmt plan, and zeroize/EMCON CONOPS. CSfC does NOT apply to Link 16 (Type-1 only).
2. MOSA/A-GRA/OMS/UCI/SOSA compliance is earned by design + conformance, not bought — and A-GRA/OMS/UCI specs are CUI/NDA-gated [TBR].
3. SWaP/price for the STT (airborne), ARC-210, ESA, and PTW modem are largely withheld — pull controlled datasheets/quotes before locking the 11_… load list and the 30_… BOM.
4. Maturity spread: STT/BATS-D/MIDS-JTRS/ARC-210/MUOS/Silvus are fielded; PTW-over-Commercial (~2026/full ~2028), Starshield MILNET (IOC ~late-2027), Kymeta KuKa-8 (full 2027), ABMS gatewayONE (developmental, full BACN replacement not before ~2027) are prototype/transition — treat as growth, not day-one.
5. TTNT band shift (1755–1850 → 2025–2110 MHz) and no public ultra-low-SWaP Group-3 TTNT terminal — TTNT stays a gateway-reached growth target, not onboard hardware.
6. ITAR/export is broad: Link 16 CryptoMod / MUOS / M-code / MADL are Type-1/USML-controlled; MADL is effectively non-exportable (correctly not baselined). BATS-D's FVEY authorization is the precedent that Link 16 can be released. Prefer US-origin SATCOM apertures for the exportable build.
7. The full USAF-tier suite is several-kg / six-figure-COMSEC and mission-kitted, not all-up-with-25-kg-payload — modularity/deletability is what keeps it inside DDR-01/13/17.
Open [TBR] / [TBD]:
- [TBR] Firm quotes + airborne SWaP: KOR-24A STT (Type-1 build), ARC-210 RT-2036(C)-class SDR, multi-band ESA + connect-mode modem, M-code/CRPA receiver.
- [TBR] Power (W) for STT TX / ARC-210 / ESA → close the 11_… electrical load list and confirm duty-cycled peaks fit the generator margin.
- [TBR] COMSEC account + key-management + zeroize/EMCON CONOPS (Type-1) — coordinate with 17_… and program security.
- [TBR] A-GRA / OMS / UCI message-set versions and the SOSA/FACE subset profile for the comms/EW cards (CUI/NDA-gated; conformance assessment plan to 17_…).
- [TBR] PTW modem availability window vs program schedule before committing the contested-BLOS path to PTW.
- [TBR] gatewayONE/BACN reach to the MADL/IFDL 5th-gen mesh — confirm the gateway translation path and its maturity (~2027) for the CCA teaming CONOPS.
- [TBR] Two-tier crypto build partition (Type-1 vs CSfC) and the CNSA-2.0/PQC-agile module selection (1 Jan 2027 gate).
11. Citations
Tactical data links / Link 16 - [STT1] Viasat/L3Harris KOR-24A Small Tactical Terminal (STT) — https://www.l3harris.com/all-capabilities/small-tactical-terminal-stt-kor-24a - [STT2] KOR-24A STT sell sheet (Oct 2025) — https://www.l3harris.com/sites/default/files/2025-10/l3harris-kor-24a-small-tactical-terminal-stt-sell-sheet-cs-bcs.pdf - [CM1] Viasat STT achieves NSA Link 16 Crypto-Modernization certification (ahead of mandate) — https://news.viasat.com/newsroom/press-releases/viasats-small-tactical-terminal-achieves-national-security-agency-link-16-crypto-modernization-certification-ahead-of-u-s-government-mandate - [LK1] Link 16 (MIL-STD-6016 / TADIL-J) overview — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Link_16 - [LK2] Curtiss-Wright TDL software — DoD Link 16 CryptoMod mandate — https://www.curtisswrightds.com/media-center/news/cw-updates-tdl-software-products-dods-link-16-cryptographic-modernization-capability-mandate - [BD1] Viasat BATS-D AN/PRC-161 NSA-authorized for international/Five-Eyes use — https://news.viasat.com/newsroom/press-releases/viasats-an-prc-161-bats-d-handheld-link-16-radio-receives-nsa-authorization-for-use-by-international-military-forces - [BD2] BATS-D AN/PRC-161 certified for US GPF + Five Eyes — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viasat-releases-configuration-of-anprc-161-bats-d-handheld-link-16-radio-certified-by-national-security-agency-for-use-by-us-general-purpose-forces-and-five-eyes-nations-301147530.html - [MJ1] MIDS-JTRS terminal (Viasat / BAE / Collins DLS) — https://www.l3harris.com/sites/default/files/2025-10/l3harris-mids-jtrs-terminal-sell-sheet-cs-bcs.pdf ; https://www.baesystems.com/en-us/product/mids-jtrs - [TT1] TTNT (Collins Aerospace) — https://www.rtx.com/collinsaerospace/what-we-do/industries/military-and-defense/communications/tactical-data-links/tactical-targeting-network-technology - [CCA1] Anduril YFQ-44 Fury Link-16-compatible (CCA) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-cca-software-collins-shield-ai-autonomy/
RF spine — SATURN / MUOS / SDR host - [AR1] Collins ARC-210 RT-2036(C) (TruNet SDR; first airborne MUOS) — https://www.rtx.com/collinsaerospace/what-we-do/industries/military-and-defense/communications/airborne-communications/vhf-uhf-l-band/arc-210-rt-2036-c ; https://www.militaryaerospace.com/communications/article/14212206/airborne-radio-muos-satcom-communications - [HQ1] Have Quick II / SATURN (NATO AJ UHF voice mandate) — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Have_Quick - [MU1] MUOS (Mobile User Objective System) — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_User_Objective_System - [MU2] MUOS ground / GD — https://gdmissionsystems.com/satellite-ground-systems/mobile-user-objective-system
BLOS SATCOM - [KY1] Kymeta u8 / KuKa-8 multi-band flat-panel ESA — https://satnews.com/2026/03/23/kymeta-sets-roadmap-for-kuka-8-series-multi-band-terminals/ ; https://www.intelsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/KymetaGoshawk-u8-Terminal.pdf - [RV1] Reticulate Micro VALOR ESA (low-SWaP UAS) — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/reticulate-micro-unveils-valor-esa-product-line-302127533.html - [BA1] Ball/BAE + Anokiwave K/Ka phased arrays — https://www.mwrf.com/markets/defense/article/21130177/anokiwave-ball-aerospace-team-on-beam-steering-satcom-antennas - [SS1] SpaceX Starshield / MILNET-SDN — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starshield ; https://defensescoop.com/2026/05/27/space-force-awards-spacex-contract-backbone-satcom-network/ - [CS1] Commercial pLEO via DISA/SSC CSCO IDIQ (OneWeb/SES/Telesat) — https://www.satellitetoday.com/government-military/2023/07/26/16-companies-chosen-for-space-systems-command-leo-communications/ - [PT1] PTW/PTES/PTS-P/PTS-G (PATS) — https://breakingdefense.com/2025/07/space-force-makes-5-awards-for-jam-resistant-satcom/ - [PT2] PTW/PTES SATCOM demo + anti-jam — https://www.executivegov.com/articles/ssc-ptw-ptes-demo-satcom ; https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/in-a-3-billion-bet-space-force-envisions-tactical-anti-jam-satcom-keeping-enemy-ew-at-bay/
MOSA / A-GRA / OMS-UCI / SOSA-FACE / STANAG-4586 / JADC2 - [AG1] USAF integrates A-GRA across CCAs (Feb 2026) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/14/usaf-integrates-a-gra-architecture-mission-autonomy-ccas/ - [AG2] CCA autonomy: Collins "Sidekick" / Shield AI "Hivemind" on A-GRA — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-cca-software-collins-shield-ai-autonomy/ - [OM1] AFRL OMS / UCI — https://www.vdl.afrl.af.mil/programs/oam/oms.php ; https://www.vdl.afrl.af.mil/programs/oam/uci.php - [MO1] MOSA Tri-Service Directive (Jan 30 2025) + DoD CTO MOSA Implementation Guidebook (Feb 27 2025) — https://www.cto.mil/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/MOSA-Implementation-Guidebook-27Feb2025-Cleared.pdf - [SO1] SOSA Technical Standard Ed. 2.0 + FACE — https://www.jedonline.com/2025/07/22/unlocking-interoperability-the-promise-of-the-sosa-standard/ - [ST1] STANAG 4586 (NATO UAV Control System) — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STANAG_4586 - [CJ1] CJADC2 / ABMS (DAF Battle Network) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/daf-battle-network-contribution-jadc2/ - [GW1] ABMS gatewayONE / BACN translating gateway — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/northrop-working-on-gatewayone-to-link-fourth-fifth-gen-fighters/
Mesh / crypto / PNT - [SV1] Silvus StreamCaster LITE 5200 / MINI 5200 (Blue UAS, Spectrum Dominance) — https://silvustechnologies.com/applications/unmanned-systems/ ; https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/silvus-technologies-streamcaster-lite-5200-added-to-diu-blue-uas-framework-delivering-powerful-manet-radio-performance-for-leading-edge-unmanned-systems-302486079.html - [TW1] TrellisWare TW-310 embedded datalink (Katana/TSM, ~48 g) — https://www.trellisware.com/trellisware-launches-tw-310-embedded-datalink-module-for-uas-market/ - [CR1] NSA CSfC vs Type-1 (two-layer commercial) — https://www.nsa.gov/Resources/Commercial-Solutions-for-Classified-Program/ - [CN1] NSA CNSA 2.0 PQC suite + 1 Jan 2027 NSS gate — https://media.defense.gov/2025/May/30/2003728741/-1/-1/0/CSA_CNSA_2.0_ALGORITHMS.PDF - [AP1] Assured PNT — M-code GPS + CRPA anti-jam antennas — https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/expo/anti-jam-antennas/
Internal refs: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3.1 (175 kg MTOW, ≤$150k flyaway, Group-3); 02_design_driver_register.md (DDR-01/03/04/10/14/17/18); 11_propulsion_power.md §6–7 (electrical budget); 12_autonomy_compute_software.md §3,5 (autonomy/PNT core, radios-OFF); 13_survivability_ew_hardening.md §4 (Faraday bay, single RF aperture, HPM aperture-short); 15_comms_networking_c2.md §1–§8 (RF-optional architecture, EMCON state machine, Common Track Format, capability ladder); 19_sensor_package.md (assured-PNT spine, STANAG-4586 C2); 30_bill_of_materials.md; 17_test_verification_validation.md (conformance/COMSEC V&V).
§ 13Manufacturing, DFM & Cost Model
MFG▾
Manufacturing, DFM & Cost Model
MFGDocument owner: Manufacturing Engineering / Cost
Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets or estimates; unverified items carry [TBR] (to-be-resolved by analysis/quote) or [TBD]. No validated production data exists yet.
Hero platform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 — Group 3, recoverable & reusable autonomous multirole combat UAS (strike / ISR / EW / decoy / resupply). BACKFIRE deltas are flagged where relevant; full treatment in 20_variant_backfire_interceptor.md.
Baseline: Rev B.1 locked point design (00_seed_design_brief.md §3.1). MTOW 175 kg (385 lb) — signed growth from 150 kg to close the mass budget (reconciled full-up strike config ≈ 174.5 kg, closes within MTOW with positive margin); empty-equipped ~104.5 kg; flyaway ≈ $130k (≤ $150k target); reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR]; cost-per-sortie ≈ $3.1k airframe-amortized + fuel + munition.
Rev B.1 closure note (authoritative). The Rev B integration found subsystems sum to ~104.5 kg empty-equipped (vs the original ~80 kg target), making a 150 kg MTOW infeasible (≈0 kg payload). Per the integration's own recommendation, MTOW is re-baselined to 175 kg (signed growth), which resolves integration finding F-1 / risk R-01 (mass overrun) and restores positive margin with the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor. This document is updated throughout to the 175 kg baseline. The flyaway rises slightly (heavier engine + heavier structure are the main cost deltas) but stays under the ≤ $150k target. Remaining open items — R-03 (Skyhook recovery scaled ~5× beyond heritage; recovery method not down-selected), R-04 (≥ 50-sortie engine/structural life vs engine-hour math), K5 (combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor; RTB reserve protected regardless) — stay in the risk register as managed, not-yet-verified items. This is a concept study, not a frozen design.
0. Why this document is the centerpiece
Palmer's entire thesis is that the weapon's design and its factory are the same engineering problem, and — at the very top of his "pinnacle" — that the airframe must be reusable so that only fuel and the munition are ever consumed. This document discharges both halves: the producibility doctrine and the unit-cost / cost-per-sortie economics that reusability unlocks.
He is explicit that World War II air superiority was won not by re-tooling factories but by re-designing the airplane around the factory that already existed:
"What we actually did was design weapon systems that could be manufactured in a car factory. They remained car factories. They just started making tanks… the bombers that we started cranking out were not the ones that we designed before… we had to design new airplanes that could actually be mass-manufacturable." — Palmer Luckey [10:04–10:45]
"heavier planes, less performance, but it was just bam bam bam, rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing. Have you ever seen the welds on a World War II tank?… they are worse than the worst welds you've ever seen, but it's because they were doing them like this." — [10:57–11:18]
And the acceptance test for the program, not just the part:
"you literally have to demonstrate it being made in a Ford or GM or John Deere or Caterpillar factory… show that your work instructions, your components, your training, you can go to a Caterpillar factory, train them how to make it in 1 week, and missiles start coming off the line." — [22:41–22:56]
"We need to build things where we could actually build a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade." — [11:32]
"…by the industry America actually has or as a consolation prize our close allies… a bunch of Japanese automotive workers." — [23:18–23:27]
The Rev B reframing — reusability is the economic core (DDR-15). Palmer's single sharpest economic point is that throwing the platform away never works:
"kinetics need to be reusable. We need to get away from this idea that we throw away every interceptor every single time. It'll never work. It's a total folly… we cannot build multi-million dollar missiles or even hundred thousand dollar missiles where we just throw away the engine and the seeker and the computer and the airframe and everything every single time… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe… I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use." — Palmer Luckey [19:32–20:46]
This means the cost question this document must answer is not "how cheap is a one-way airframe?" — that is exactly the "total folly" Palmer rejects. The question is: how cheap is the airframe to build (flyaway ≤ $150k), and how cheap is each engagement once that airframe flies ≥ 50 sorties (cost-per-sortie ≈ $3.1k + fuel + munition)? Manufacturing cost and reuse economics are the same problem.
This document discharges those statements as concrete engineering: a bill-of-process using only automotive/agricultural-implement manufacturing primitives, a takt-time line a Caterpillar-grade workforce can be trained on in ≤ 1 week, a ≥ 1,000/day distributed-rate plan, a bottoms-up unit-cost model to a ≤ $150k flyaway (≈ $130k at the 175 kg baseline), a cost-per-sortie model amortized over ≥ 50 sorties, and an allied/second-source plan.
It honors DDR-17 ("Don't build the Batmobile"): every process and feature traces to a driver, and producibility / cost / reusability / survivability beat peak performance throughout. And it honors DDR-15 ("no one-way airframe"): there is no "expendable airframe" cost tier anywhere in this model.
1. Drivers satisfied (traceability)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (abbrev.) | How this document discharges it |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-05 [09:11/21:55] | "build weapons that we can actually manufacture… valuing mass producibility in a very serious way." | DFM treated as a top-tier KPP, co-equal with reusability; bill-of-process and cost model are the design's center of gravity (§2–§9). |
| DDR-06 [21:55–23:31] | "demonstrated being made in a Ford/GM/John Deere/Caterpillar factory… train them… in 1 week." | Bill-of-process restricted to auto/ag primitives (§3); 1-week line-training plan (§5); commodity tooling list (§3.3). |
| DDR-07 [10:01–11:20] | single-stage press radii; "rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing"; accept weight/perf penalty. | Process selection (§3) and tolerance/heat-treat policy (§3.2) accept the weight penalty already booked in the ~104.5 kg empty-equipped / 175 kg MTOW baseline — now also serving reuse robustness (a structure flying ≥ 50 sorties wants margin). |
| DDR-08 [11:32] | "a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade." | Takt-time analysis (§4) + distributed-line rate plan (§6) reaching ≥ 1,000/day surge. Reusability multiplies effective fleet capacity per unit built (§9.5). |
| DDR-15 [19:32–20:46] | "kinetics need to be reusable… come back… refueled, rearmed, reused… I'm not throwing away my airframe." | Cost model is reuse-anchored: ≈ $130k flyaway (≤ $150k), then airframe amortized over ≥ 50 sorties → ≈ $3.1k/sortie + fuel + munition (§8). No expendable-airframe tier exists. Recovery ground equipment treated as reusable infrastructure, not per-unit cost (§8.7). |
| DDR-20 [23:24] | allied production as a "consolation prize." | Second-source / allied (Japan, AUKUS) localization plan (§7). |
| DDR-17 [36:54] | no Batmobile; trace to customer. | Cost discipline; no exquisite materials/processes (§3.1, §8.6); reusable platform + expendable munition only (DDR-15 is the anti-Batmobile economic test). |
| DDR-03 [14:53–15:48] | "$300 chip is not the thing driving that price… rounding error." | Best-in-class Thor-class compute is booked as a rounding error against the airframe (§8.2, §8.3). |
| Supporting: DDR-09/10/11 (survivability adders cost-bounded), DDR-12 (laser+HPM+kinetic together within MTOW), DDR-13 (range+payload preserved incl. RTB reserve), DDR-19 (shoot-off incl. reuse/turnaround demo) | — | Survivability adders are explicitly cost-bounded (§8.4); DDR-12 closes at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin (verification by detailed mass + performance analysis, analysis-pending); build + reuse evidence package supports the shoot-off (§9.4). |
2. Manufacturing philosophy & ground rules
2.1 The five DFM commandments (derived from Palmer)
- The factory is a constraint, not an afterthought. Every part must be makeable on equipment that a Ford/GM/John Deere/Caterpillar plant already owns and already runs in volume. If a feature needs a process the plant doesn't have, the feature changes — not the plant. [10:04, 22:41]
- Trade weight and peak performance for producibility — on purpose. The baseline books a "heavier plane, less performance" steel-centric structure (DDR-07). We do not claw that weight back with exotic processes. The Rev B.1 signed growth to 175 kg MTOW is the explicit acceptance of that penalty at the system level, and the same robustness directly serves reuse life (§2.3). [10:57]
- Generous tolerances, single-stage forming, ugly-but-strong joints. Single-stage press-brake radii, standard heat-treat, rivets + robotic MIG + structural adhesive. "Worse than the worst welds you've ever seen" is acceptable if the joint qualifies structurally — and survives the inspect-and-fly-again reuse cycle. [10:08–11:18]
- Part-count is the master cost variable. Target < 120 structural parts (Rev B baseline) and < ~480 total line-level part numbers including fasteners/COTS. Fewer parts → fewer fixtures, fewer training tasks, shorter takt, lower cost, fewer reuse-inspection points.
- No process on the critical path that can't be taught in a week. If a station needs a master craftsperson, it is redesigned until it needs a trained line operator (DDR-06).
2.2 What is explicitly banned (anti-Batmobile list, DDR-17)
- No autoclave / out-of-autoclave prepreg CFRP primary structure (capital + cure-cycle bottleneck).
- No titanium billet machining, no 5-axis machined primary structure.
- No castings requiring dedicated foundry tooling on the critical path (one optional Al gearbox housing is COTS from the engine vendor).
- No hand lay-up, hand-fitting, "stretching/laminating" of the pre-Pearl-Harbor kind Palmer derides [10:52].
- No proprietary fastener systems; COTS rivets, bolts, and nutplates only.
- No one-way / expendable airframe tier (DDR-15). A one-way airframe is "the total folly" [19:38]. If an effect can be delivered by a recoverable platform + expendable munition, it must be.
2.3 Build-to-reuse mindset (Rev B — replaces the former "build-to-attrition" framing)
WILDFIRE is recoverable and reusable (DDR-15): the airframe, seeker, and compute come home every sortie via rail/RATO launch + Skyhook-cable recovery (parachute + airbag alternate). Only the munition is expended. The cost model and process plan therefore optimize two figures jointly:
- Recurring unit (flyaway) cost — to keep fleet build-out and surge affordable (≈ $130k, ≤ $150k); and
- Cost-per-sortie — the figure that actually wins against mass-produced threats, driven by amortizing the airframe over ≥ 50 sorties plus per-sortie fuel + munition (§8.5).
Concretely, this changes three things versus a throwaway design:
- Manufacturing must build in reuse margin, not strip it out. Joints, skins, and the recovery-load path are sized to survive ≥ 50 launch/recover cycles with health-monitoring (18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md). The steel-centric DFM (DDR-07) helps here for free: a heavier, generously-toleranced, weld-and-rivet structure is inherently robust and field-repairable. The recovery-load path is a managed not-yet-verified risk (R-03): the Skyhook capture is scaled ~5× beyond heritage at the 175 kg MTOW and the recovery method is not yet down-selected — manufacturing sizes the on-airframe fittings to the worst-case load case pending that down-select.
- Maintainability becomes a producibility requirement, not an afterthought. Module drop-in (engine, compute, seeker, payload as bolt-in COTS modules, P7) is now doubly justified: it keeps takt/training short and makes refuel/rearm/repair turnaround ≤ 30 min by a small team (DDR-15).
- Recovery ground equipment (Skyhook, RATO rail, arrest gear) is reusable infrastructure, amortized across the whole fleet over the whole program — not a per-airframe flyaway cost (§8.7).
3. Bill-of-Process (BoP) — automotive/ag primitives only
Every WILDFIRE part is produced by one of the eight permitted primitive processes below. This is the literal discharge of DDR-06: each primitive is a process a Ford/GM/John Deere/Caterpillar plant runs at volume today.
3.1 Permitted primitive set
| # | Primitive | Auto/ag analog | WILDFIRE use | Tooling class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Sheet-metal stamping / blanking | Body panels, brackets | Fuselage skins, bulkheads, ribs, wing skins, tail | Single-stage / progressive dies (soft tooling first, hard later) |
| P2 | Press-brake forming (single-stage radii) | Chassis/implement brackets | Longerons, channel spars, fittings, engine bay frame, recovery-load fittings | Standard CNC press-brake, generic punches/dies |
| P3 | Robotic MIG/MAG welding | Frame/chassis welding cells | Steel engine-bay truss, hardpoint fittings, RATO lug box, Skyhook-capture hardpoint | COTS 6-axis weld robot + fixture |
| P4 | Riveting (blind + solid) | Aircraft-grade but commodity; ag implement panels | Skin-to-frame, wing assembly, non-sealed joints | Pneumatic rivet guns / auto-feed C-frame riveter |
| P5 | Structural adhesive bonding | Automotive crash-structure bonding (body-in-white adhesives) | Skin doublers, composite-to-metal, sealing, "crappy glue" load-sharing | Robotic/manual bead dispense + heated-blanket or RT cure |
| P6 | Compression / RTM composite molding | SMC body panels, ag implement panels, leaf springs | Wing/tail skins, radome/nose, fairings, ablative survivability skin | Matched metal molds + press (no autoclave) |
| P7 | COTS fastening (bolts, nutplates, Camloc) | Universal | Removable access panels, payload module, engine, avionics/compute tray, seeker module (all reuse-/turnaround-critical bolt-ins) | Hand/impact tools |
| P8 | Wire/tube bending + crimp harness | Auto harness lines, brake/fuel lines | Fuel/vent lines, electrical harness (optical bus per DDR-10) | Bench bender, COTS crimp + auto-harness board |
Note (DDR-07 alignment): P1–P5 are exactly the processes Palmer names — stamping/pressing radii, rivets, "crappy glue," "weld over the whole thing." P6 (compression/RTM composite) is the ag-implement and SMC automotive panel primitive, not the aerospace autoclave one; this is the producibility-justified composite allowed by the seed brief (glass/basalt, not autoclave CFRP).
Reuse note: P7 (COTS fastening) is now load-bearing for turnaround, not just assembly. The seeker, compute tray, engine, and payload are removable bolt-in modules so a small ground team can refuel, rearm, swap a degraded module, and re-launch in ≤ 30 min (DDR-15). The line that builds by module drop-in is the same architecture that services by module swap.
3.2 Materials, heat-treat & tolerance policy (DDR-07)
| Item | Policy | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Primary structural metal | HSLA / low-alloy steel sheet & A36-class plate, mild-steel weldments | Weldable on commodity MIG cells; no exotic alloy supply risk; cheap; survivability thermal-mass benefit (DDR-09); robust + field-repairable for reuse (DDR-15). |
| Secondary / weight-critical skins | Glass or basalt fiber in vinyl-ester/epoxy via P6 | Cheap fiber, no autoclave, ag-implement supply base. |
| Heat-treat | As-welded + stress-relieve only where needed; no exotic quench-and-temper on critical path | "the level of heat treatment you could do to steel" [10:12] — keep it factory-standard. |
| Press radii | Single-stage bench radii, min bend radius ≥ 1.5× sheet thickness | Directly per [10:19]; no multi-stage deep-draw tooling. |
| Tolerances | General ±0.5 mm sheet, ±1.0 mm weldment, ±0.25 mm at COTS/module interfaces only | Generous tolerances reduce scrap and skill; tight only where a bought part mates or where a module must be swap-interchangeable across reuse cycles. |
| Surface/finish | E-coat or powder-coat (auto paint-shop primitive) + ablative survivability overcoat (DDR-09 in 13_*) |
Reuses auto paint shop; corrosion now matters (reusable airframe lives a fleet life) → durable e-coat/powder-coat baseline. |
| Recovery-load fittings | Steel weldment (P2/P3), inspectable, designed for ≥ 50-cycle fatigue with health-monitor tap | Skyhook/RATO load path is reuse-life-critical (managed risk R-03, scaled ~5× beyond heritage, recovery method not down-selected); built from the same primitives. |
3.3 Capital tooling list (what a host plant must add)
A host plant already owns the processes. To run WILDFIRE it adds a modest set of part-specific tooling and a few cells, sized so the 1-week training and rapid stand-up hold:
| Tooling / cell | Qty per line | Indicative capex | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stamping dies (skins, bulkheads, ribs) | ~22 die sets | $1.9–3.6M [TBR] | Soft (kirksite/cast) tooling for ramp, hard steel dies at rate. Larger airframe (175 kg MTOW, structure 52 kg) → slightly larger/heavier-gauge dies than the 150 kg Rev B point. |
| Press-brake punches/dies (generic) | shared | <$50k | Host already owns the brakes. |
| Robotic MIG weld cell + fixtures | 2 cells | $0.6–1.2M | COTS robot; WILDFIRE-specific fixtures (incl. recovery-load fittings) only. |
| Compression/RTM composite press + molds | 1 press, ~9 molds | $1.6–2.7M [TBR] | Host ag plants may already own SMC presses. |
| Auto-feed riveter / C-frame | 2 | $0.4M | |
| Adhesive dispense robot + cure stations | 1 | $0.3M | |
| Final-assembly fixtures + leak/pressure test rigs | 1 set | $0.5M | |
| Harness board + crimp tooling | 1 | $0.1M | |
| Total non-recurring tooling per line | — | ≈ $6.0–9.3M [TBR] | Amortized in §8.6; trivially small per unit at rate. |
This is commodity, not exquisite, capex — comparable to adding one new vehicle model variant to an existing auto/ag line, which is exactly the bar DDR-06 sets. Recovery ground equipment (Skyhook, RATO, arrest gear) is operational infrastructure, not line tooling — see §8.7.
3.4 Indicative structural part tree (< 120 parts target, Rev B)
| Major assembly | Approx. structural parts | Dominant primitives |
|---|---|---|
| Fuselage center body (steel) | ~22 (skins, 5 bulkheads, longerons, floor) | P1, P2, P3, P4, P5 |
| Engine bay / hardpoint truss (steel) | ~14 (welded truss + RATO lug box) | P2, P3 |
| Recovery-load structure (Skyhook capture hardpoint, parachute/airbag mounts) | ~8 (steel fittings, doublers) | P2, P3, P5 |
| Wing (L/R) | ~22 (2 spars, ribs, 2 molded skins, tips) | P2, P6, P4, P5 |
| V-tail (2 surfaces) | ~10 | P6, P2, P4 |
| Nose / modular payload bay | ~10 (molded radome, frame, COTS latches) | P6, P7 |
| Control surfaces + hinges | ~14 | P1, P6, P7 |
| Fasteners/brackets misc. | ~16 | P1, P2, P7 |
| Structural subtotal | ≈ 116 parts | within < 120 baseline (DDR-06; +recovery structure vs. Rev A) |
Total line-level part numbers including COTS (engine, Thor-class compute, sensors, actuators, recovery hardware interface, fasteners as kits) ≈ 475 [TBR].
F-4 BOM-mass alignment (Rev B.1). Structure part-count is unchanged, but the structure mass owned by
10_airframe_structures.mdis now 52 kg (canonical), and the heavy-fuel engine is ~17 kg dry — replacing the obsolete 40 kg structure / 7 kg engine split that appeared in earlier partial self-reports. Process and tooling are unaffected (heavier gauge, same primitives); the cost deltas land in §8.2 buckets 1 and 2.
4. Takt time & single-line rate analysis (DDR-08)
4.1 Takt-time first-order calc
A single host line targets 100 units/day at one shift-pair; rate is reached by replicating lines (§6). For a single line:
- Working day: 20 h productive (2 shifts × 10 h, allowing changeover/breaks). [Assumption]
- Target single-line output: 100 units/day.
- Takt time = 20 h ÷ 100 = 0.20 h/unit = 12 min/unit.
This is a vehicle-plant-class takt (auto final lines run ~60 s/unit; ag/heavy lines run minutes-to-tens-of-minutes/unit). A 12-minute takt is well within the demonstrated capability of a Caterpillar/John Deere-grade assembly line, which is the whole point of DDR-06. The larger 175 kg airframe (structure 52 kg, heavier engine) adds work content per station (heavier handling, more weld/fastener content) but stays within the 12-min takt with the station balance below.
4.2 Station balance (illustrative, 12-min takt)
To hold 12 min/unit, work content is balanced across parallel stations. Estimated touch labor per WILDFIRE airframe at maturity: ≈ 12–16 person-hours [TBR] (slightly higher than a throwaway design because of the recovery-load structure, the heavier 52 kg steel structure handling, and the module-swap interfaces — still vs. tens-to-hundreds of hours for hand-crafted "World War I model" exquisite builds Palmer derides [23:02]).
| Zone | Stations | Work content (min, balanced) | Primitives |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Detail fab (stamp/brake/mold) | parallel, decoupled by buffer | feeds line | P1, P2, P6 |
| B. Steel structure weld (incl. recovery-load fittings) | 2–3 robot cells | ~12 (robot, low touch) | P3 |
| C. Wing/tail bond + rivet | 3 | ~12 each | P4, P5 |
| D. Fuselage close-out + harness | 2 | ~12 | P4, P5, P7, P8 |
| E. Powertrain install (engine ~17 kg dry, fuel, mounts) | 2 | ~12 | P7 |
| F. Avionics/compute/seeker module drop-in | 1 | ~12 | P7 (module-level) |
| G. Payload-bay + recovery-system interface + survivability skin (incl. divert/dodge motor — survivability) | 1 | ~12 | P6, P7 |
| H. Final assembly, fuel/leak test, functional check, recovery-system fit check | 2 | ~12 | test |
Key DFM lever: F, G, and the payload bay are module drop-ins (engine, Thor-class compute, seeker, payload arrive as tested COTS/sub-assembled modules and are bolted in — P7). This keeps both takt and training short: the line integrates modules, it does not build avionics or engines. The same module interfaces are the turnaround interfaces — a degraded seeker or compute tray is swapped in the field exactly as it is installed on the line (DDR-15).
F-2/F-3 note: the terminal lateral solid-divert ("dodge") motor is installed at Zone G and is charged to survivability (
13_*), counted once, not to the powertrain (Zone E). It is a controlled COTS munition-class module bolted in (P7), reloaded at turnaround — see §8.4 and §11 item 7.
4.3 Throughput sensitivity
| Lever | Effect on single-line rate |
|---|---|
| Add 3rd shift / weekend surge | +50% → ~150/day/line |
| Decouple detail-fab with buffer inventory | protects line takt from die changeover |
| Robot cell uptime 85%→95% | ~+10% effective rate |
| Part-count reduction (< 116) | shorter takt, fewer stations |
| Reusability (fleet effect) | Each built unit flies ≥ 50 sorties → effective sortie-generation capacity per unit built is ~50× a throwaway, so a given /day build rate fields far more combat power (§9.5). |
5. ≤ 1-Week line-training plan (DDR-06)
Palmer's acceptance bar is literal: "train them how to make it in 1 week, and missiles start coming off the line." [22:54]. We meet it by designing the work, not just the part.
5.1 Why 1 week is feasible here
- Every station uses a process the workforce already runs (a Caterpillar welder already MIGs; an auto-plant operator already rivets/bolts/dispenses adhesive). Training is WILDFIRE-specific fixturing and sequence, not the trade itself.
- Module drop-in removes the highest-skill content (no avionics/engine/seeker build on the line).
- Poka-yoke (error-proofing): asymmetric fixtures, color-coded harness connectors, torque-limited drivers, go/no-go gauges — so correct assembly is the path of least resistance.
- The same training cadre can later teach the field maintenance/turnaround crew (DDR-15), because servicing is module-swap, not rebuild — a training-cost synergy unique to the reusable design.
5.2 The 5-day curriculum
| Day | Content | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safety, line layout, the 8 primitives mapped to their existing trade; read the visual work instructions (1 page/station, pictographic). | Operators locate their station, understand flow. |
| 2 | Hands-on at own station with trainer; fixtures, poka-yoke, torque/weld parameters (pre-set on equipment). | Operator completes station with trainer assist. |
| 3 | Solo station runs at relaxed takt; quality gates and self-check gauges; recovery-load fitting inspection criteria introduced. | First-pass-yield checks pass at station. |
| 4 | Run line at 50% takt end-to-end; FOD, leak/functional test, recovery-system fit-check training. | First full unit off line (slow). |
| 5 | Ramp toward design takt; line-balance adjustments; sign-off. | Line at rate; "units start coming off the line." |
5.3 Training artifacts shipped with the design package
- Pictographic work instructions (one card per station; minimal text → portable to allied/non-English workforces, DDR-20).
- Pre-set equipment recipes (weld parameters, adhesive cure profiles, torque values) loaded as machine programs, not operator knowledge.
- Golden master unit + station-level go/no-go gauges.
- Train-the-trainer kit (a 6–8 person cadre stands up a new line) — doubles as the field-maintenance train-the-trainer kit for turnaround crews.
6. Reaching ≥ 1,000 units/day across distributed lines (DDR-08)
A single host line produces ~100/day (§4). Rate = parallel lines, not a heroic single line — this is precisely the WWII model.
6.1 Distributed-line plan
| Host class | Lines | Per-line rate | Subtotal/day |
|---|---|---|---|
| US automotive (Ford/GM-class) plants | 4 | 100 | 400 |
| US ag/heavy-equipment (John Deere/Caterpillar-class) plants | 4 | 100 | 400 |
| Allied automotive (DDR-20, §7) | 2 | 100 | 200 |
| Surge total | 10 lines | — | 1,000/day |
1,000/day is a surge (mobilization) figure, reached by replicating a proven, trainable line across the existing US + allied auto/ag base. Steady-state peacetime rate is set by demand (CONOPS /
04_*), with warm tooling held at each host so any line can surge within the 1-week training window. Reusability sharply lowers the steady-state build rate needed to sustain a given operational tempo: a fleet that flies each airframe ≥ 50 times needs to be replaced only as airframes retire (≥ 50-sortie life, managed risk R-04 vs engine-hour math) + combat losses, not topped up every sortie (§9.5).
6.2 Why distributed beats one mega-factory (DDR-05/08, survivability)
- Industrial survivability: dispersing across ≥ 10 plants on multiple coasts/allies removes the single-point-of-failure that one missile plant represents.
- Latent capacity: uses spare shifts/lines that already exist, rather than building greenfield capacity ("the industry America actually has" [23:18]).
- Supply resilience: common COTS BOM (§30 BOM doc) lets any line draw from a shared, second-sourced parts pool.
6.3 The constraint is the supply chain, not the line
At 1,000/day the binding constraints are long-lead COTS: heavy-fuel engines, Thor-class edge-AI compute modules, EO/IR gimbals, actuators. Mitigations:
- Dual-source every long-lead COTS item (BOM doc 30_*); design tolerant of ±1 vendor part substitution at the module interface.
- Compute is a rounding error and Moore's-law-deflating — stockpile is cheap insurance (DDR-03): "a $300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price." [15:48]. Note the Rev B compute is best-in-class Thor-class (~1000–2000 TOPS) — Palmer's point is precisely that even best-in-class compute is a rounding error against the airframe, so we buy the best.
- Heavy-fuel engine is the #1 rate risk → see §8.2 and 11_*; the Rev B.1 uprate to ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline) for the 175 kg MTOW makes the engine a slightly larger, but still commodity-class, item. Second-source and a turboprop-dash alternate engine de-risk it.
- Reusability eases the supply constraint: because each airframe (and its engine, compute, seeker) flies ≥ 50 sorties, the throughput of long-lead COTS needed per unit of combat output is ~50× lower than a throwaway design — the single largest relief on the binding supply constraint.
6b. Autonomous (lights-out) production on existing automaker lines — perfect-world variant
The cost-disciplined baseline (§§2–6) builds WILDFIRE on existing automotive/ag lines with ≤1-week-trained crews. The perfect-world variant runs the same DFM-simple airframe lights-out on the already-robotic body-shop lines of domestic automakers (Ford · GM · Stellantis) — a modern car plant is already a highly automated robotic facility (robotic stamping, MIG/spot welding, adhesive, riveting). The doctrine is retool, don't build greenfield:
- Why the design enables it: <120 parts, single-stage press radii, generous tolerances, and weld/rivet/adhesive joins (DDR-06/07) map directly onto existing automotive robotic cells — the same attributes that make it hand-buildable make it robot-buildable.
- Digital thread + autonomous QA: a model-based definition drives the robots; in-line machine-vision / AI inspection auto-accepts or rejects each part — removing the manual-QC bottleneck and giving unit-level traceability.
- Domestic-first, allied fallback (DDR-20): surge across domestic automakers first; if it cannot be built domestically at rate, use the existing allied auto base (Japanese / Korean makers — Palmer's "consolation prize," [23:24]) rather than not building it at all.
- Rate & labor: ≥ 1,000/day at far lower direct labor than a hand-built line; reusability (≥ 50 sorties) multiplies effective combat output per airframe built (§6.3).
- Caveat [TBR]: retooling an automotive body line for an airframe (jigs, station re-programming, qualification) is non-trivial NRE; this is a perfect-world variant, not the costed baseline.
7. Allied / second-source plan (DDR-20)
"if it could only be made by a bunch of Japanese automotive workers, that would make me sad but a lot less sad than not being able to make it at all." — Palmer Luckey [23:24–23:29]
7.1 Localization tiers
| Tier | What transfers | Recipients (illustrative) |
|---|---|---|
| T0 — Full line | Complete BoP, tooling package, training cadre, work-instruction cards | Japan (automotive), Australia/UK (AUKUS), Korea [TBR exportability] |
| T1 — Final assembly + structure | Stamping/weld/bond + integration; receives compute/seeker modules from controlled source | NATO allied auto/ag plants |
| T2 — Detail-fab only | Stamped/molded details shipped to a controlled final-assembly | Broadest allied base |
7.2 Design features that make it portable
- Metric-first, ISO-fastener BOM (auto-global standard) eases allied sourcing.
- Pictographic, low-text work instructions (§5.3) cross language barriers.
- ITAR/export partitioning: the autonomy/compute/seeker module (the sensitive content, DDR-01/02/18) is a sealed, bolt-in module shipped from a controlled source while the airframe is built allied-side. This lets T1/T2 expand without exporting the crown-jewel software — and, because the seeker/compute is reusable and recovered (DDR-15), the controlled-source module population is a managed, traceable fleet asset rather than expended ordnance.
- Common-fuel mandate (JP-8/Jet-A) means allied logistics already stock the fuel — and reusability means the forward logistic burden is fuel + munition, which allies already field, not whole airframes.
7.3 Second-source matrix (rate insurance)
| Subsystem | Primary | Second source | Risk if single-sourced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy-fuel piston engine (~35 hp, uprated) | Vendor A | Vendor B + turboprop-dash alternate | High (rate-binding) |
| Edge-AI compute (Thor-class) | NVIDIA Thor-class | Qualcomm/other high-TOPS edge-AI module | Low (Moore's-law deflating; cost rounding error) |
| EO/IR gimbal / seeker | Vendor X | Vendor Y | Medium |
| Actuators (servo) | COTS industrial | 2nd COTS vendor | Low |
| Steel/composite raw stock | Domestic mill | Allied mill | Low (commodity) |
| Recovery ground equipment (Skyhook/RATO/arrest) | Vendor R | 2nd integrator | Medium (infrastructure, not per-unit; R-03 scaling not yet down-selected) |
8. Bottoms-up cost model (flyaway ≈ $130k, ≤ $150k; cost-per-sortie ≈ $3.1k + fuel + munition)
8.1 Method & assumptions
- Cost basis: recurring flyaway unit cost at volume (≥ 100k cumulative units; ≥ 1,000/day surge demonstrated). Excludes one-time NRE/tooling (treated separately, §8.6), excludes the expended munition payload (separate modular line item,
14_*), and excludes recovery ground equipment (reusable infrastructure, §8.7). - Currency: 2026 USD. [All figures TBR pending vendor quotes.]
- Learning curve: an 85% Wright cumulative-average learning curve assumed from a first-100-unit cost. [Assumption]
- Single reconciled WBS (F-7 fix): earlier subsystem self-reports were partial and inconsistently scoped (some double-counting, some gaps). The cost model below is the single canonical cost work-breakdown structure for the program. Each bucket is reconciled to the owning subsystem doc; where a subsystem self-report disagreed, this WBS governs and the delta is flagged. No item is counted in more than one bucket (in particular, the divert/dodge motor is in survivability only — F-2).
- Reuse-cost basis: flyaway is the build cost; the operationally decisive figure is cost-per-sortie, computed in §8.5 by amortizing flyaway + lifetime maintenance over ≥ 50 sorties (DDR-15) and adding per-sortie fuel + munition.
- Anti-Batmobile rule: where a number could be reduced by an exotic process, we keep the cheap process and book the (small) weight penalty instead (DDR-07/17). No one-way-airframe cost tier exists (DDR-15).
8.2 Flyaway cost buckets at volume (Rev B.1, 175 kg recoverable airframe)
The Rev B.1 airframe is heavier (175 kg MTOW vs. the earlier 150 kg point; structure 52 kg, engine ~17 kg dry, uprated to ~35 hp), uses best-in-class Thor-class compute (not a competition-class module), and carries recovery hardware interface + reuse-robust structure. The heavier engine and heavier structure are the two main cost deltas vs. the 150 kg point; together they push the recurring flyaway to ≈ $130k — still with headroom under the ≤ $150k target, and the reuse economics (§8.5) more than repay the higher build cost.
| Bucket | Content | Unit cost @ volume (USD) | % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Structure (reuse-robust) | Steel sheet/plate (52 kg structure), glass/basalt composite, fasteners, adhesive, paint/finish, recovery-load fittings; stamp/weld/bond/rivet labor | $20,000 | 15% | Cost delta vs 150 kg: heavier 52 kg steel structure + recovery-load structure + durable finish for fleet life (DDR-07/15). Still cheap commodity material — more of it. |
| 2. Propulsion & fuel system | Heavy-fuel 2-stroke EFI piston (~17 kg dry, uprated ~32–38 hp / ~35 hp baseline), pusher prop, fuel cell/lines (incl. RTB-reserve volume), EFI, exhaust, mounts. (Divert/dodge motor is NOT here — F-2/F-3; it is in bucket 5.) | $29,000 | 22% | #1 cost & rate driver and the other main delta. Larger/uprated engine for 175 kg MTOW. F-3: propulsion dry mass is the explicit ~26 kg itemization charged to propulsion; the ~3.2 kg "dodge-motor" phantom previously embedded here is removed. Turboprop-dash variant adds cost (§8.8). |
| 3. Compute + seeker/sensors (autonomy core) | Thor-class edge-AI module (~1000–2000 TOPS), 3–6 global-shutter cams, 1 EO/IR gimbal seeker, dual IMU, baro, optical-flow, low-SWaP star tracker, harness | $22,000 | 17% | Thor module itself ~$1.5–3k — still a "rounding error" vs. airframe (DDR-03 [15:48]); the EO/IR gimbal seeker dominates this bucket. Reusable (recovered every sortie). |
| 4. Avionics / power / actuation | Flight controller, ESC/divert driver, servos, batteries/alternator, optical data bus, Faraday-shielded bay hardware | $11,000 | 8% | EMI hardening hardware (DDR-10) booked here. |
| 5. Survivability adders | Ablative/reflective skin overcoat, thermal mass, optional spin hardware, terminal solid lateral-divert ("dodge") motor — counted ONCE here (F-2) | $8,000 | 6% | Bounded per DDR-09 ("$10 Home Depot" philosophy) + divert motor (the real cost). The divert motor (~4.1 kg) is charged once to survivability in mass and cost. See §8.4. |
| 6. Recovery-system airframe interface | On-airframe recovery hardware: Skyhook-capture hook/loop + reusable parachute/airbag pack + release/actuation. (Ground equipment is NOT here — §8.7.) | $6,000 | 5% | New in Rev B (DDR-15). Reusable, recovered with the airframe; repacked each turnaround. Sized to R-03 worst-case load (scaling not yet down-selected). |
| 7. Assembly, integration & test | Touch labor (~12–16 h), functional/leak test, FOD, QA, recovery-system fit check, line overhead | $8,500 | 7% | Low because of takt/module-drop-in design (§4–5); slight uplift for heavier handling + recovery fit check. |
| 8. Tooling & NRE amortization | Per-unit share of line tooling (§3.3) over program volume | $3,000 | 2% | See §8.6; shrinks with volume. |
| 9. Margin / integrator fee / warranty | Prime margin, scrap, warranty reserve | $15,500 | 12% | Commercial assumption [TBR]; warranty matters more for a reusable fleet. |
| Subtotal (recurring, munition-less) | $123,000 | 95% | ||
| Contingency / risk reserve (≈ 6%) | Cost-growth reserve at this maturity | $7,000 | 5% | |
| TARGET FLYAWAY (munition-less, reusable airframe) | ≈ $130,000 | 100% | Under the ≤ $150k target with ~$20k headroom. |
Munition note: The releasable munition / glide weapon is the only expended item (DDR-15) and is a separate modular line item (
14_*), not in the $130k airframe flyaway. ISR/EW/decoy payloads are recovered with the airframe. The terminal divert/dodge motor is an on-airframe survivability item (bucket 5), reloaded at turnaround as a consumable. Recovery ground equipment is reusable infrastructure (§8.7), not in flyaway.
8.3 Why best-in-class compute is still affordable (DDR-03)
Palmer's point is explicitly that compute cost is irrelevant against the airframe:
"in my $200,000 Barracuda cruise missile, a $300 chip is… a rounding error." — [15:45–15:50], and "we're like two Moore's law 18-month cycles away from it being much cheaper." — [15:16]
Rev B therefore buys best-in-class Thor-class compute (~1000–2000 TOPS) rather than the competition-class module: at ~$1.5–3k it is ~1–2% of flyaway, and it is recovered and reused every sortie (DDR-15), so its already-tiny cost is further amortized across ≥ 50 sorties. There is no economic reason to under-spec the brain.
8.4 Survivability-adder cost detail (DDR-09/10/11/12)
Palmer's claim is that survivability can be cheap: "trip to Home Depot and $10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser." [18:07] and "$10 to make it a thousand times more survivable" against HPM [18:24].
| Adder | Driver | Unit cost | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ablative/reflective skin overcoat + thermal mass | DDR-09 (laser) | $500 | Material-cost-dominated; the "$10 Home Depot" philosophy scaled to a 175 kg Group-3 airframe. Re-applied/touched-up at turnaround (cheap consumable per sortie). |
| Faraday-bay + optical data bus + transient suppression | DDR-10 (HPM) | $1,800 | Mostly the optical bus + shielding; protects the reusable compute/seeker that must survive to RTB. |
| Terminal lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor (~4.1 kg, counted ONCE — F-2) | DDR-11 (kinetic) | $5,000 | The expensive one — a small solid motor + actuation; reloaded at turnaround like a munition (consumable per use, not per airframe). Charged once to survivability in both mass and cost; the propulsion-dry double-count is removed (F-3). |
| Optional spin hardware | DDR-09 | $700 | Strike-mission configuration. |
| Survivability bucket total (on-airframe, recoverable parts) | DDR-12 (all three at once) | ≈ $8,000 | The integration of all three while still surviving to return home is the hard part (DDR-12/15), not the parts cost. DDR-12 (REQ-12b/c) now closes at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin — verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), not yet test-verified. The divert-motor charge + ablative touch-up are per-sortie consumables (§8.5), not per-airframe. |
8.5 Cost-per-sortie model (the economic core, DDR-15)
This is the figure Palmer says actually wins the fight: once the airframe, seeker, and computer come home, "I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use." [20:42]. We compute it bottoms-up.
Inputs (all [TBR]):
- Flyaway (build) cost: $130,000 (§8.2).
- Designed reuse life: ≥ 50 sorties [TBR] (DDR-15; 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md). Use 50 as the conservative baseline. Managed risk R-04: ≥ 50-sortie engine/structural life is not yet reconciled against engine-hour math — treat 50 as a target, not a verified number.
- Lifetime maintenance + module-refresh reserve over 50 sorties: ≈ $26,000 [TBR] (inspections, occasional module swap, recovery-pack repack/replace, fatigue-fitting replacement; slightly higher for the heavier/uprated engine). ≈ $520/sortie.
- Per-sortie fuel: ~45 kg JP-8 max (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve hold-back + ~2 kg contingency); typical mission ~30–38 kg burned at the heavier MTOW. At Jet-A ~$1.0/kg bulk → ≈ $30–45/sortie (call it ~$40). [TBR]. The RTB fuel reserve is a fixed, protected hold-back and is not available for outbound range regardless of mission profile (relevant to K5, combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor).
- Per-sortie expended consumables: ablative touch-up (~$50) + divert-motor reload if used (~$5,000) — divert-motor reload is mission-gated.
- Per-sortie munition: mission-dependent, priced in 14_*; excluded from the airframe cost-per-sortie line by definition (it is the one expended item).
Calculation (airframe-amortized, excluding munition & divert reload):
| Component | Per-sortie cost | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Airframe flyaway amortization | $130,000 / 50 = $2,600 | Build cost over ≥ 50-sortie life [TBR] |
| Lifetime maintenance/refresh amortization | $26,000 / 50 = $520 | Reserve over life |
| Fuel | ~$40 | ~30–38 kg JP-8 bulk |
| Ablative/skin touch-up (consumable) | ~$50 | Per-sortie survivability refresh |
| Airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie | ≈ $3,210 | Meets ≤ ~$3.1k target [within rounding/TBR] |
| Plus divert-motor reload (only when terminal evasion used) | +~$5,000 | Mission-gated, treated as a consumable munition-class item |
| Plus munition | +(14_*) |
The single expended item (DDR-15) |
Result: With a 50-sortie life, the airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie is ≈ $3.1k (fuel + ablative touch-up already included), i.e. essentially on the ≈ $3.1k airframe-amortized target (DDR-15), and it falls sharply with reuse life (§8.5.1). This is the number Palmer cares about: a $130k airframe that throws away only ~$40 of fuel + the munition per engagement, versus the "total folly" [19:38] of throwing away a $130k airframe every shot. Reuse life (R-04) is a managed not-yet-verified assumption — the cost-per-sortie figure is only as good as the certified life behind it.
8.5.1 Cost-per-sortie sensitivity to reuse life
| Reuse life (sorties) | Flyaway amortization | + Maint. amort. | Airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | $5,200 | $1,040 | ≈ $6,330 |
| 50 (baseline, DDR-15) [TBR] | $2,600 | $520 | ≈ $3,210 |
| 100 | $1,300 | $260 | ≈ $1,650 |
| 200 (stretch) | $650 | $130 | ≈ $910 |
*Includes ~$40 fuel + ~$50 ablative touch-up; excludes mission-gated divert reload and the expended munition.
Reuse life is the single biggest cost-per-sortie lever — far larger than any flyaway-cost saving. Doubling life from 50→100 sorties halves the dominant amortization term. This is exactly why DDR-15 makes reuse life (and the recovery system that enables it,
18_*) a primary KPP: the cheapest way to a cheap engagement is to fly the airframe more times, not to build it cheaper. Manufacturing's job is therefore to (a) hit ≤ $150k flyaway and (b) build in the durability margin that lets18_*certify ≥ 50 (target 100+) sorties — the open R-04 life-verification item.
8.6 NRE / tooling amortization
- Per-line tooling ≈ $6.0–9.3M (§3.3). Across the 10-line surge fleet: ~$60–93M total tooling NRE. [TBR]
- Amortized over a conservative 100k-unit program at ~$3,000/unit (bucket 8). At 1M units this drops below ~$400/unit — i.e., it asymptotes to a rounding error, just as DDR-08 intends.
- Soft-tooling-first (kirksite/cast dies) lets the line stand up in weeks for the shoot-off (DDR-19) before hard steel dies are cut for rate.
8.7 Recovery ground equipment — reusable infrastructure, NOT per-unit cost (DDR-15)
The launch/recovery system (RATO rail/launcher, Skyhook recovery boom + cable, parachute/airbag field-recovery kit alternate, arrest gear) is operational infrastructure shared across the fleet over the program life — analogous to a runway, a hangar, or a Patriot launcher rail. It is not charged to per-airframe flyaway, and it is itself reusable (it services thousands of launches/recoveries).
| Ground equipment item | Indicative unit cost | Amortization basis | Effective per-sortie share |
|---|---|---|---|
| RATO rail / pneumatic launcher (sized for 175 kg MTOW) | $175–450k [TBR] | thousands of launches | negligible (<$60/launch) |
| Skyhook recovery boom + cable system | $250–600k [TBR] | thousands of recoveries | negligible (R-03: scaled ~5× beyond heritage; method not down-selected) |
| Parachute/airbag field-recovery kit (alt) | $5–18k [TBR] | many recoveries | low |
| Turnaround GSE (fuel cart, rearm kit, module-swap stand) | $50–150k [TBR] | continuous | negligible |
Why this matters for the cost story: booking recovery hardware as per-unit flyaway would wrongly inflate the airframe cost and obscure the reuse win. Correctly treated as shared, reusable infrastructure, the recovery system adds a negligible per-sortie share (well under $100/launch+recovery at fielded utilization) — fully consistent with Palmer's logistics point that with a reusable system "I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use… not having the logistics of… get a semi truck full of missiles to the front line." [20:35–20:44]. A modest set of launchers/recovery rigs services a large, frequently-reflown fleet. The Skyhook recovery scaling to 175 kg MTOW is a managed not-yet-verified risk (R-03) and the recovery method is not yet down-selected — the ground-equipment capex range above carries that uncertainty.
8.8 Variant cost deltas
| Configuration | Δ vs. baseline flyaway | Resulting flyaway | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ~35 hp piston, reusable, strike-configurable (175 kg) | — | ~$130k | Within ≤ $150k. |
| ISR-primary (no divert motor fitted, EO/IR seeker retained) | −$5k motor | ~$125k | Recovered every sortie; cheapest reusable tier. |
| Turboprop-dash variant | +$20–32k engine [TBR] | ~$150–162k → flag: at/over $150k, reserve for dash mission (DDR-13/17 trade) | Higher dash speed for time-critical strike. |
| Parachute/airbag recovery instead of Skyhook interface | −$2k airframe interface | ~$128k | Trades recovery footprint vs. cost; airframe-side only. Relevant to the R-03 recovery-method down-select. |
8.9 Path to lower flyaway and lower cost-per-sortie
| Lever | Effect | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|
| Higher cumulative volume (85% curve, 1M units) | flyaway −$15–24k | Learning curve + die hard-tooling. |
| Compute price decline (Moore's-law, DDR-03) | flyaway −$1–2k | "two Moore's-law 18-month cycles away from it being much cheaper." [15:16] — already a rounding error. |
| Extend reuse life 50→100+ sorties | cost-per-sortie −~50% | The dominant lever (§8.5.1). Durability margin + health-monitoring (18_*); gated by R-04 life verification. |
| Fixed multi-cam terminal seeker vs. gimbal (lean on vision-nav core, DDR-02) | flyaway −$5–8k | "navigate… the way that a pilot would… look out the window." [16:01]; gimbal becomes optional. |
| Margin compression at scale | flyaway −$4–6k | Commercial. |
| Aggregate flyaway | → ~$100–110k at 1M units | Comfortably under ≤ $150k; reuse then drives cost-per-sortie toward ~$1.6k (§8.5.1). |
The single biggest economic lever is reuse life, not flyaway cost (§8.5.1) — the inversion of a throwaway program's instincts, and the whole point of DDR-15.
9. Production ramp & build-evidence (DDR-19)
9.1 Rate ramp (illustrative; gated by funding + shoot-off)
| Phase | Milestone | Rate | Tooling | Flyaway/unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P0 Prototype | Hand/soft-tooled units for shoot-off (incl. reuse-cycle demo) | ~1–5 total | soft | high (NRE-loaded) |
| P1 LRIP | 1 host line stood up, 1-week training proven | ~10–25/day | mix soft/hard | ~$165–190k |
| P2 Rate | 1 line at design takt | 100/day | hard dies | ~$130k (target) |
| P3 Multi-line | 4–6 US lines | 400–600/day | hard | ~$115–122k |
| P4 Surge | 10 lines incl. allied | ≥ 1,000/day | hard + warm allied | ~$100–110k (volume trajectory) |
9.2 The factory-acceptance demonstration (literal DDR-06 test)
The program's manufacturing exit criterion mirrors Palmer's words exactly: take the work-instruction package, components, and training to a real Caterpillar/John Deere/Ford/GM line, train the existing workforce in ≤ 1 week, and have conforming WILDFIRE units come off the line. This is a deliverable, captured in 17_test_verification_validation.md.
9.3 Producibility metrics (tracked from P1)
| Metric | Target |
|---|---|
| First-pass yield (line) | ≥ 90% at P2 [TBR] |
| Touch labor/unit | ≤ 16 h → ≤ 12 h at P4 |
| Takt adherence | 12 min/unit single line |
| Training time to operator sign-off | ≤ 5 days |
| Structural part count | < 120 |
| % BoP using only P1–P8 primitives | 100% |
| Recovery-load fitting fatigue qual | ≥ 50-sortie life demonstrated (with 18_*) [TBR — R-03/R-04] |
9.4 Evidence for the shoot-off (DDR-19) — including reuse/turnaround
"open competitions where multiple companies… compete… at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win." [21:43] The manufacturing evidence package for the shoot-off includes: the BoP, the host-plant training demonstration result, a producibility cost-audit (flyaway and cost-per-sortie), instrumented build-rate data, and a fly–recover–refuel/rearm–refly turnaround demonstration (≤ 30 min) plus reuse-life test data toward ≥ 50 sorties (jointly with 17_* and 18_*). The competition now proves makeability AND reusability, not just flight performance. No validated reuse-life or turnaround test data exists yet — these are demonstration objectives, not closed results (R-03/R-04).
9.5 The reuse multiplier on industrial output (DDR-08/15)
Reusability changes what "1,000/day" means. A throwaway design must build one airframe per sortie; a reusable design that flies each airframe ≥ 50 times generates ~50× the sortie capacity per airframe built.
| Quantity | Throwaway design | WILDFIRE (reusable, 50-sortie life [TBR]) |
|---|---|---|
| Airframes to generate 50,000 sorties | 50,000 built | ~1,000 built (+ attrition spares) |
| Long-lead COTS (engines/compute/seekers) consumed | 50,000 sets | ~1,000 sets |
| Forward logistic burden per engagement | whole airframe | fuel + munition only |
This is why Palmer ranks reusable kinetics at "the top of my pinnacle" [19:31]: the same factory output fields dramatically more combat power, and the supply chain (§6.3) and forward logistics (DDR-15) are relieved by the same ~50× factor. The multiplier is contingent on the not-yet-verified ≥ 50-sortie life (R-04).
10. Key trades & producibility implications (summary)
| Trade | Choice | Producibility/cost/reuse implication | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTOW re-baseline | 150 → 175 kg (signed growth) | Resolves mass overrun (F-1/R-01); restores full 25 kg payload + divert motor with positive margin; main cost deltas are heavier engine + structure (§8.2) | Rev B.1 / DDR-12/13 |
| One-way vs. reusable airframe | Reusable | The decisive economic choice: cost-per-sortie ≈ $3.1k vs. throwing away $130k/shot — the "total folly" [19:38] designed out | DDR-15 |
| Steel structure (52 kg) vs. CFRP | Steel-centric | Heavier, slightly slower; weldable on commodity cells, cheap, no autoclave bottleneck, thermal-mass survivability bonus, robust + field-repairable for ≥ 50-sortie reuse | DDR-07/09/15 |
| Composite process | Compression/RTM (ag/SMC primitive) | No autoclave capital or cure bottleneck; allied-portable | DDR-06 |
| Compute spec | Best-in-class Thor-class (~1000–2000 TOPS) | Cost is a rounding error (DDR-03) and it's recovered/reused — no reason to under-spec the brain | DDR-03/15 |
| Gimbal vs. fixed cam array | Gimbal baseline, fixed-array option | Fixed array is the main flyaway-reduction path; both recovered & reused | DDR-02/03 |
| Engine | ~35 hp heavy-fuel piston (~17 kg dry) baseline; turboprop dash optional | Piston cheaper & common-fuel; uprated for 175 kg MTOW; turboprop nears/exceeds $150k → dash-only | DDR-13/17 |
| Divert/dodge motor | Survivability item, counted ONCE (F-2/F-3); reloadable consumable, mission-gated | Charged once to survivability in mass (~4.1 kg) and cost; phantom removed from propulsion dry; reloaded at turnaround, not per-airframe | DDR-11/15/17 |
| Recovery equipment costing | Reusable infrastructure, not per-unit | Keeps flyaway honest; negligible per-sortie share; R-03 scaling/method not yet down-selected | DDR-15 |
| Cost reconciliation | Single canonical WBS (F-7) | Subsystem self-reports were partial/inconsistent; this WBS governs, no double-counts | F-7 |
| Single mega-line vs. distributed | Distributed 10 lines | Reaches 1,000/day using existing capacity; industrially survivable; reuse multiplies effective output ~50× | DDR-08/15/20 |
| Hard vs. soft tooling at ramp | Soft-first, hard-at-rate | Stand up for shoot-off in weeks; cut hard dies once design frozen | DDR-19 |
11. Open issues / [TBR] / [TBD]
| # | Item | Type | Owner / resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | All cost-bucket dollar figures pending vendor quotes | [TBR] | Cost / Supply chain → BOM doc 30_* |
| 2 | Heavy-fuel engine (~35 hp, ~17 kg dry) unit cost & rate availability (rate-binding) | [TBR] | Propulsion 11_* + second-source |
| 3 | Stamping/composite tooling capex range ($6.0–9.3M/line) at 175 kg | [TBR] | Mfg Eng quote |
| 4 | Touch-labor estimate (12–16 h/unit) — needs time-study from P1 | [TBR] | Mfg Eng time-study at LRIP |
| 5 | 85% learning curve & 1M-unit stretch volume assumption | [Assumption] | Validate against P1–P3 actuals |
| 6 | Exportability / ITAR partition for allied T0/T1 lines | [TBR] | Program/legal + Autonomy module partition |
| 7 | Divert-motor (solid) producibility within auto/ag primitives — solid-propellant casting is not an auto primitive; charged once to survivability (F-2), phantom removed from propulsion (F-3) | [TBR/flag] | Survivability 13_*: controlled COTS munition module dropped in (P7), reloaded at turnaround |
| 8 | 20 h/2-shift productive-day assumption for takt | [Assumption] | Mfg Eng |
| 9 | First-pass-yield 90% target | [TBR] | Quality, from P1 data |
| 10 | Expended munition priced separately (munition-less flyaway) | [Confirmed scope] | 14_payload_effects.md |
| 11 | Reuse life ≥ 50 sorties assumption underpinning cost-per-sortie — managed risk R-04 (life vs engine-hour math), not verified | [TBR] | 18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md fatigue/health-monitor qual |
| 12 | Lifetime maintenance reserve $26k / 50 sorties ($520/sortie) | [TBR] | 18_* + reliability data from P1+ |
| 13 | Recovery ground equipment capex (infrastructure, not per-unit) — R-03: Skyhook scaled ~5× beyond heritage, recovery method not down-selected | [TBR] | 18_* + GSE vendor quotes |
| 14 | ≤ 30-min turnaround (refuel+rearm+module check) by small team | [TBR] | 18_* + maintainability time-study |
| 15 | Per-sortie fuel ~$40 (Jet-A bulk, ~30–38 kg burned); RTB reserve is a protected hold-back; K5 combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case vs 1,500 km floor | [Assumption] | Propulsion 11_* mission-energy analysis |
| 16 | F-7: subsystem cost self-reports were partial/inconsistent — single canonical WBS (§8.2) now governs; reconcile sibling docs to it | [Action] | Cost / Integration |
| 17 | DDR-12 (REQ-12b/c) closes at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin — verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending, not test-verified) | [TBR] | Integration / 13_* / 11_* |
Flag (item 7): The terminal solid-divert motor (DDR-11) uses solid-propellant casting, which is not one of the eight auto/ag primitives. Per DFM doctrine it is treated as a controlled COTS munition-class module bolted in at station G (P7) — built in an existing energetics facility, not on the auto/ag line, and reloaded at turnaround like a munition. It is charged once to survivability (F-2) in both mass (~4.1 kg) and cost ($5,000), and the ~3.2 kg phantom previously embedded in propulsion dry is removed (F-3). This preserves the "buildable in a Ford/Caterpillar factory" claim for the reusable airframe while keeping the energetic in its proper qualified supply chain. To be reconciled with
13_*and30_*.
Budget contribution
This document is the manufacturing & cost model; it does not add a physical subsystem to the airframe (no mass/power of its own). It owns the unit-cost rollup target (flyaway ≤ $150k, ≈ $130k at the 175 kg baseline) and the cost-per-sortie model, and books assembly/integration/test + tooling-amortization cost that no other subsystem doc owns. It also owns the single canonical cost WBS (F-7).
- Mass: 0 kg (process/cost document — adds no hardware). For reconciliation reference only, the canonical Rev B.1 rollup (owned by the named subsystem docs, not this one) is: empty-equipped ~104.5 kg (structure ~52 + propulsion dry ~26 [engine ~17 kg dry] + electrical ~7.2 + autonomy ~3.4 + survivability ~9.3 [incl. divert/dodge motor ~4.1, counted once — F-2] + comms ~0.9 + CPI ~3.2 + recovery ~6.5); fuel 45 kg (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency); payload up to 25 kg; full-up strike config ≈ 174.5 kg, closing within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin. The divert/dodge motor is charged once to survivability and removed from propulsion dry (F-2/F-3); structure 52 kg and engine ~17 kg dry are the canonical BOM masses (F-4). N/A to this doc's own MTOW contribution.
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W (no onboard electrical load; N/A).
- Unit cost (volume), munition-less reusable-airframe flyaway — single canonical WBS (this doc is the integrator; F-7):
- Structure (reuse-robust, 52 kg, incl. recovery-load fittings): $20,000
- Propulsion & fuel (~35 hp / ~17 kg dry engine; divert motor NOT here — F-2/F-3): $29,000
- Compute + seeker/sensors (Thor-class): $22,000
- Avionics/power/actuation: $11,000
- Survivability adders (incl. divert/dodge motor, counted once — F-2): $8,000
- Recovery-system airframe interface: $6,000
- Assembly/integration/test (owned here): $8,500
- Tooling/NRE amortization (owned here): $3,000
- Margin/fee/warranty: $15,500
- Contingency reserve: $7,000
- TOTAL FLYAWAY ≈ $130,000 (≤ $150k target met with ~$20k headroom; →~$100–110k at 1M units, §8.9). Heavier engine and heavier 52 kg structure are the two main deltas vs. the prior 150 kg point.
- Cost uniquely owned by THIS document = assembly/test + tooling amortization = $11,500/unit; remaining buckets are reconciled from sibling subsystem docs into this single WBS (F-7).
- Cost-per-sortie (the economic core, DDR-15): ≈ $3,210 airframe-amortized (flyaway/50 + maint. + fuel + ablative) + mission-gated divert reload + expended munition (
14_*) — on the ≈ $3.1k target; falls to ~$1.6k at 100-sortie life (§8.5.1). Contingent on the not-yet-verified ≥ 50-sortie life (R-04). - Reuse impact: This document's entire cost thesis is reuse-anchored (DDR-15). (a) The flyaway is the build cost of a recoverable airframe (seeker + compute + airframe all come home); only the munition is expended. (b) Reuse life is the dominant cost-per-sortie lever — amortizing $130k over ≥ 50 sorties drives the airframe-amortized engagement cost to ≈ $3.1k, and to ~$1.6k at 100 sorties (§8.5.1), vs. the "total folly" [19:38] of a one-way airframe. (c) Manufacturing actively adds reuse margin (reuse-robust 52 kg steel structure, recovery-load fittings, durable finish, module-swap interfaces for ≤ 30-min turnaround) rather than stripping it out. (d) Recovery ground equipment is reusable shared infrastructure, not per-unit cost (§8.7), adding a negligible per-sortie share — but the Skyhook scaling (R-03) is not yet down-selected/verified. (e) Reusability multiplies effective industrial output ~50× per airframe built (§9.5), relieving the binding long-lead supply constraint (§6.3) by the same factor — contingent on R-04 life verification.
- Assumptions / [TBR]:
- All dollar figures are pre-quote estimates [TBR] (#1).
- 85% Wright learning curve; 1M-unit volume [Assumption] (#5).
- 20 h/2-shift productive day → 12-min takt → 100/unit/line/day [Assumption] (#8).
- 12–16 h touch labor/unit [TBR] (#4).
- Per-line tooling $6.0–9.3M at 175 kg [TBR] (#3).
- Heavy-fuel engine (~35 hp, ~17 kg dry) cost/rate is the binding risk [TBR] (#2).
- Reuse life ≥ 50 sorties (baseline for cost-per-sortie) — managed risk R-04, not verified [TBR] (#11); lifetime maintenance reserve $26k/50 sorties [TBR] (#12).
- ≤ 30-min turnaround by a small team [TBR] (#14); per-sortie fuel ~$40 with protected RTB reserve; K5 combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case [Assumption] (#15).
- Recovery ground equipment is reusable infrastructure, not per-unit flyaway; R-03 Skyhook scaled ~5× beyond heritage, recovery method not down-selected [TBR capex] (#13).
- Turboprop-dash variant at/exceeds $150k → dash-mission-only (DDR-13/17 trade).
- Solid-divert/dodge motor is a controlled COTS munition-class module (P7), counted once to survivability (F-2), phantom removed from propulsion (F-3), reloaded at turnaround, not auto/ag line-built [TBR/flag] (#7).
- F-7: subsystem cost self-reports were partial/inconsistent; the §8.2 WBS is the single canonical cost model and governs (#16).
- Expended munition priced separately; flyaway is munition-less per DDR-15 (#10). No one-way-airframe cost tier exists.
- DDR-12 (REQ-12b/c) closes at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin — verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending, not test-verified) (#17).
§ 14Monocoque Shell — Molding Process & Tooling
SHELL▾
Monocoque Shell — Molding Process & Tooling
SHELLDocument: 22_monocoque_shell.md
Platform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 (hero platform) — recoverable & reusable autonomous multirole combat UAS
Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets or first-order estimates. Unverified values carry [TBR] (to-be-resolved by analysis/quote) or [TBD]. This is a concept study, not a frozen design.
Maps to baseline: §3.1 of 00_seed_design_brief.md (Rev B.1) — MTOW 175 kg (385 lb), structure ~52 kg, ~3.6 m long / ~6.0 m span (mid-wing / V-tail / pusher), gear-less (rail/RATO launch + Skyhook-cable recovery, parachute+airbag alt), reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR], turnaround ≤ 30 min, < 120 structural parts, autonomous (lights-out) production on existing automaker robot lines at ≥ 1,000/day.
Scope & relationship to
10_airframe_structures.md. Document 10 carries the baseline WILDFIRE airframe as a steel-intensive, weld-and-rivet semi-monocoque — the literal "WWII airplane" reading of DDR-07, optimized to fall off an existing automotive stamping/weld line. This document develops the composite-monocoque shell variant: the airframe shell is re-cast as a molded glass/basalt composite monocoque (upper/lower fuselage half-shells + wing skins) with steel internal frames and hardpoints bonded/over-molded in where loads concentrate (wing carry-through, engine mount, Skyhook hook, divert-motor reaction, payload bay). It is a parallel design line, not a supersession of doc 10 — the down-select between all-steel semi-monocoque and molded composite monocoque + steel hardpoints is an open program trade (R-22, §9). The composite-monocoque variant is the stronger fit to the lights-out, robot-line, part-count-minimized doctrine of doc 16 §6b; doc 10's all-steel build remains the stronger fit to a hand-buildable / 1-week-trained crew line (DDR-06). Both must clear the same DDR cost, reuse, and rate gates.
0. Design Drivers Satisfied (traceability)
| DDR | Verbatim driver (timestamp) | What this document does about it |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-05 | "the most important thing… is to build weapons that we can actually manufacture… valuing mass producibility in a very serious way." [09:11 / 21:55] | Process is down-selected by producibility and rate first (§3). A molded monocoque collapses the < 120-part stamped/welded shell into ~6–10 molded segments (§1), the largest single part-count reduction available to the airframe. |
| DDR-06 | "demonstrate it being made in a Ford or GM or John Deere or Caterpillar factory… train them how to make it in 1 week." [21:55–23:31] | Chosen process (wet compression molding / WCM) is automotive-native (BMW i3/i8, 7-Series) and runs on the press + robot cell an automaker already operates — the lights-out §6b doctrine. Commodity glass/basalt + fast epoxy; no aerospace-exclusive process on the critical path. |
| DDR-07 | "heavier planes, less performance, but… rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing." [10:19–11:06] | We accept the weight/perf penalty for producibility — commodity glass/basalt (not carbon, §2), generous net-molded tolerances, structural-adhesive bonding of shell halves and co-bonded steel hardpoints instead of exquisite one-shot tooling. Joints qualified for fatigue over ≥ 50 sorties (REQ-07b/15e). |
| DDR-08 | "build a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade." [11:32] | §3 / §5 / §8 size the press count and tool-set count to clear ≥ 1,000 airframes/day (= ~2,000 half-shells/day) via parallel WCM cells, the explicit rate math. |
| DDR-09 | "$10 … will make a drone 100× more survivable against a laser." [17:55–18:17] | The molded shell carries the ablative/reflective anti-laser overcoat as an in-mold or post-mold skin layer (interface to 13_*); basalt's higher temperature tolerance is a survivability dividend over E-glass (§2). |
| DDR-15 | "kinetics need to be reusable… I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [19:32–20:46] | PRIMARY KPP. Continuous-fiber monocoque + bonded-in steel hardpoints carry recovery load paths (Skyhook hook, belly-skid) sized for fatigue life ≥ 50 sorties; net-molded surfaces resist scuff/bump of repeated capture. Bond-line + fastener-backup design (§6) is reuse-driven. |
| DDR-17 | "focus on things that are actually in cycle, can actually get funded and actually get deployed." [36:54–37:41] | No autoclave, no OOA prepreg, no carbon primary structure, no one-shot 3.6 m cavity. Every choice traces to rate, cost, or reuse. "Don't build the Batmobile" applies to the tooling too — we machine hard-steel cavities direct from CAD and skip the splash (§5). |
Secondary interfaces: DDR-10 (conductive mesh / metallized layer for Faraday/EMI on an otherwise RF-transparent shell, §6/§7), DDR-11 (divert-motor hardpoint reaction loads — bonded-in steel frame, §1/§6), DDR-20 (basalt + glass are both allied-sourceable commodities; same tool runs either fiber, §2).
1. Why a molded composite monocoque (and how it coexists with steel)
1.1 The four arguments for molding the shell
A molded composite monocoque is proposed for the WILDFIRE shell (the load-bearing skin/stressed surface of fuselage and wings) on four grounds, in DDR priority order:
- Part-count (DDR-05). The doc-10 steel semi-monocoque hits the < 120-part target through stamped ribs, press-braked spars, and seam-welded skins joined by hundreds of welds/rivets. A molded monocoque integrates skin + sub-stiffeners + frame seats into a handful of large net-shape segments — typically 2 fuselage half-shells (upper/lower) + 2–4 wing/tail skins + nose radome, i.e. ~6–10 molded primaries replacing dozens of stamped details and their joins. Monocoque/semi-monocoque integration "minimizes part count and weight while maximizing stiffness" and one-shot RTM/preform molding is in UAV production (Fiber Dynamics LCRTM lost-core one-shot airframe/wing/control surfaces). This is the single largest part-count reduction available to the airframe, which is the master cost variable (doc 16 §0/§2: "part-count is the master cost variable").
- Weight (DDR-07/13). A glass/basalt monocoque shell is lighter than the equivalent galvanized-steel stressed skin at equal stiffness, recovering part of the ~30–40% mass penalty doc 10 books against an exquisite design — without going to carbon. The recovered mass is margin against the 52 kg structural allocation at 175 kg MTOW, or can be re-spent on reuse-robustness (thicker bond-lines, larger hardpoint doublers).
- Rate (DDR-08). A WCM/HP-RTM press cell is a single automated machine cycle producing a net-shape primary in 1–3 min, versus a multi-station stamp → form → fixture → robotic-weld → rivet → inspect chain per steel sub-assembly. Fewer stations, fewer fixtures, shorter takt — exactly the lights-out fit (doc 16 §6b).
- Reuse-robustness (DDR-15). A continuous-fiber monocoque has no rivet-hole stress concentrations or fretting joints across the skin (the classic fatigue initiators), and a net-molded surface shrugs off the bump-and-scuff of repeated Skyhook captures better than thin painted sheet steel. Composite has no corrosion mode. The bonded shell + co-bonded hardpoints are designed to fatigue, not just static (REQ-07b).
1.2 How it coexists with steel internal frames/hardpoints — "soft shell, hard bones"
The shell is not all-composite. Loads concentrate at discrete points the monocoque cannot efficiently react in glass alone — wing carry-through, engine mount, Skyhook hook, divert-motor reaction, payload-bay frame, launch-rail/RATO reaction. At each, a steel internal frame or fitting (the doc-10 welded steel torque box, firewall truss, capture lug, etc.) is bonded into or over-molded into the composite shell:
- Over-molding (preferred where geometry allows): the steel insert is placed in the tool and the composite is molded around it, giving a co-cured fiber-to-metal bond plus mechanical interlock. Maximizes part-count reduction (one molded structure vs. a fastened-on bracket).
- Co-bonding / secondary bonding (where the insert is large or must be precise): the steel frame is bonded into the molded shell in an assembly jig with a toughened structural adhesive, backed by fasteners at the highest-load hardpoints (Skyhook hook, engine mount) per the belt-and-suspenders rule of §6.
This is the "composite skin, steel skeleton at the load points" architecture: the monocoque carries distributed skin/shear/pressure loads cheaply and light; the steel bones carry the concentrated, fatigue-critical, recovery-and-launch loads with the robust, forgiving, inspectable sections doc 10 already sized. It directly inherits doc 10 §3.2 (welded steel center torque box does four jobs) and §4.1 (wingtip capture lug tied to spar) — those steel parts survive into this variant unchanged; what changes is the skin around them (molded composite, not stamped steel).
1.3 What we explicitly do NOT do: one-shot the whole airframe
We do not mold the 3.6 m fuselage in a single cavity. A one-shot 3.6 m monocoque "exceeds typical automotive part size and drives tonnage/tool cost," pushing press tonnage, tool cost, and cycle time outside the automotive envelope (HP-RTM aerospace work shows ~1,500 t suffices to ~2 m parts, while 4–6 m parts need much higher tonnage). Instead we split into 2–4 large molded segments (~2 m class each) bonded with molded-in steel hardpoints — keeping each cavity, press, and cycle inside the proven automotive-rate band. (Citations: CompositesWorld Drones: Composite UAVs take flight; Fiber Dynamics LCRTM; CompositesWorld HP-RTM for serial production of cost-effective CFRP aerostructures.)
2. Material selection — commodity glass/basalt + toughened resin (why not carbon)
2.1 Fiber
| Candidate | Verdict | Rationale (DDR) |
|---|---|---|
| E-glass (NCF / woven) | PRIMARY reinforcement | Cheapest structural fiber; 92% of all automotive composite fiber use (vs 0.6% carbon) — the commodity an automaker plant and supply chain already run. Molds identically in WCM/RTM/compression. Anchors DDR-05/07/20 cost discipline. |
| Basalt (BFRP) | UPGRADE option, drop-in | ~35–42% higher Young's modulus than E-glass, better compressive/bending strength and impact/energy absorption, at cost between glass and carbon (cheaper than S-glass and carbon). Processes in RTM/compression like glass (infusion ~0.8 MPa, cure ~80 °C). Higher temperature tolerance / ablative behavior = anti-laser dividend (DDR-09) and allied-sourceable (DDR-20). Runs in the same tool as glass — the program can flip fiber without re-tooling. Watch fiber–matrix sizing/compatibility, esp. with thermoplastics [TBR]. |
| Carbon (CFRP) | REJECTED for the shell | Highest specific stiffness/strength — but wrong for a cost-disciplined attritable-reusable shell. It is ~the most expensive fiber; it demands tighter process control (void/FVF), Invar or CTE-matched tooling, and a niche supply chain (0.6% of automotive use). DDR-05c bans exquisite material unless producibility-justified; DDR-17 bans the Batmobile. Carbon's specific-performance edge does not buy back its cost/rate/supply penalty on a glass/basalt shell that already meets the load case at 175 kg MTOW with accepted weight margin (DDR-07). |
2.2 Resin
Toughened fast-cure epoxy is the baseline matrix (e.g. Hexion EPIKOTE ~2 min cure at 120 °C; Dow VORAFORCE < 60 s mold cycle demonstrated; Huntsman epoxy ~120 °C). Toughened is required for the bump/scuff/impact of repeated Skyhook recovery and the bonded-joint fatigue case (DDR-15). 2K polyurethane is an alternative for higher toughness/handling. Thermoplastic (Arkema Elium, ~100 °C; or LFT-D) is a recyclability/secondary-panel option (§3) but carries the basalt-sizing compatibility caveat. We do not specify a snap-cure resin until the basalt-in-WCM cycle is qualified [TBR] — most public sub-1-min cycle figures are CFRP.
3. Process down-select for ≥ 1,000/day
3.1 Candidate comparison
| Process | Cycle time (part-to-part) | Temp / pressure | Fiber | Automation / lights-out | Rate ceiling (per line) | Relative part cost | Tooling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HP-RTM (high-pressure RTM) | 2–3 min (fastest resins sub-60 s to ~2 min cure) | cure 100–120 °C; inject 30–120 bar (150 bar mixhead; >100–110 bar risks fiber washout) | continuous, FVF up to ~60–75% | Full (fabric unwind→cut→stack→preform→load→mold→demold→robotic offline clean; no QA after preform load) | ~120,000 parts/yr (3 shifts) ≈ 330/day | mid | matched steel, high tonnage (1,000–3,000 t auto panels) |
| Wet compression molding (WCM / gap-injection HP-CRTM) | ~1–3 min (BMW ~180 s; Hexion 75–135 s; Dow/KMM < 60 s demonstrated) | cure ~150 °C; ~30 bar (resin squeezed through-thickness as mold closes) | continuous, FVF up to ~65% void-free | Full (BMW line runs "completely unattended," 2 staff for removal/QA; KUKA dual-arm preform place + dual-head metering + Dieffenbacher CompressLite press; ~10 min changeover) | ~120k+ parts/yr/line (cycle-bound) | lowest of the continuous-fiber routes | matched steel, lower tonnage than HP-RTM (1,500–2,500 t class) |
| SMC compression molding | 2–4 min (some < 2 min) | up to ~2,000 psi (15–30 MPa) | chopped (discontinuous) | High; automaker-native (hoods, underbody, seat backs) | > 500,000 units/yr/program | lowest overall | matched steel, > 500k shot life |
| Vacuum infusion (VARTM) / OOA prepreg | HOURS (RT vacuum debulk hours to > 16 h before cure) | vacuum + oven (no autoclave); aerospace < 1–2% void | continuous | Low (labor-/floor-intensive) | low — "scale by adding molds" | low tooling cost, high labor/floor | cheap composite/board molds |
| LFT-D (direct long-fiber thermoplastic) | fast, single thermal cycle | compression | long but discontinuous (>5 mm) | High; recyclable | high | among the cheapest per-part | matched steel |
(Citations: CompositesWorld Wet compression molding; The rise of HP-RTM; Turnkey manufacturing systems: Simplifying automated HP-RTM; Out-of-autoclave processing: <1% void content?; FRIMO; Huntsman Transportation; Dieffenbacher HP-RTM line; CORE Molding / WIT Mold / Macrodyne Compression Molding 101; Composites end markets: Automotive 2025.)
3.2 Winner: Wet Compression Molding (WCM) — with HP-RTM as the close second for the most loaded primaries
WCM is the winner for the WILDFIRE shell, justified directly against the doc-16 §6b lights-out doctrine:
- It keeps continuous fiber. A structural monocoque needs continuous reinforcement along load paths; SMC and LFT-D (chopped/long-but-discontinuous) cannot carry primary load as efficiently and are demoted to secondary panels/fairings (§3.3). VARTM/OOA also keep continuous fiber but their hours-long cure makes ≥ 1,000/day require hundreds of tools — disqualified for rate, reserved for prototypes/LRIP only (§5).
- It is the cycle-time + capex sweet spot. Because resin is gap-injected and squeezed through-thickness as the mold closes (~30 bar) rather than injected at 100+ bar, WCM needs less clamping force / press tonnage than HP-RTM, lowering capex — while reaching ~1 min part-to-part in the best DFCM demonstrations (≈ one-third the lowest HP-RTM cycle). Same continuous-fiber properties at near-SMC throughput.
- It is automaker-proven and lights-out-ready. BMW used wet molding for i3/i8 CFRP and 7-Series side sills; the BMW WCM line runs essentially unattended — robots place the preform, a metering head doses resin, a press molds, ~10 min changeover. FRIMO and Huntsman supply fully automated WCM cells. This robot-place + meter + press cell drops onto an existing automaker robot line — the literal §6b retool-don't-build-greenfield doctrine.
- It runs commodity glass/basalt + toughened epoxy/PU — directly matching DDR-05/06/07/20.
HP-RTM is the designated close second, reserved for any highest-FVF / lowest-void primary load-path segment (e.g. the wing skin over the carry-through) that WCM cannot hit — same cell topology, higher tonnage. SMC / LFT-D handle low-load secondary panels and fairings to shave cost where continuous fiber is overkill. This mixed allocation (WCM primary, HP-RTM hot-spots, SMC/LFT-D secondaries) is itself a DDR-07 cost move.
4. Step-by-step molding & assembly process (WCM route)
Numbered process for one fuselage half-shell (upper or lower); wing/tail skins follow the same flow with their own tools. Parameters are first-order targets; [TBR] where a qualification or quote is required.
-
Fiber preform build. Robotic unwind/cut/stack of dry glass or basalt non-crimp fabric (NCF) plies to the half-shell ply book; net or near-net 2-D blank, optionally 3-D preformed/binder-tacked to the shell contour. Target areal layup to hit FVF ~55–65% in the molded part. [Preform rate must match the press; HP-RTM lines run ~90 s/preform, 40/hr — WCM preform cell sized to match the chosen cycle, [TBR].]
-
Insert stage (steel hardpoints). Where a steel frame/fitting is over-molded, a robot loads the cleaned, primed steel insert (wing carry-through seat, engine-mount backing, Skyhook lug doubler, divert-motor reaction frame, payload-bay ring) into its located pocket in the lower tool. Surface prep (grit-blast + adhesion primer/silane) [TBR — fiber-to-steel co-cure bond qualification].
-
Resin application (open mold). A dual-head metering machine with integrated flowmeter dispenses metered toughened fast-cure epoxy (or 2K PU) onto the dry preform in the partially open tool. Resin-apply ~15–20 s (Dow/KMM datapoint). Shot mass set to FVF + part volume [TBR].
-
Press close / gap injection. The matched-metal steel tool closes; closing squeezes resin through-thickness to wet out the preform at ~30 bar mold pressure (far below HP-RTM's 100+ bar). Closing profile FEA-tuned to avoid fiber wash and dry spots [TBR — closing-pressure FEA fixes press tonnage, §5].
-
Cure. Hold at ~150 °C tool temperature (oil-tempered cavity, §5) for the resin's fast-cure window. Total part-to-part target ~120–180 s (BMW ~180 s reference; faster resins drive toward < 90 s) [TBR — basalt-specific WCM cycle; public sub-1-min figures are CFRP]. In-cavity Kistler pressure + Netzsch dielectric cure sensors confirm full cure for closed-loop, no-QA-after-load lights-out cycling.
-
Demold. Tool opens; ejectors/robot lift the net-shape half-shell off the draft-relieved cavity (§5). No de-bag, no autoclave queue.
-
Trim. Net-mold the major surfaces; finish the trim line, payload-bay aperture, and hardpoint cutouts on a 5-/6-axis robotic abrasive-waterjet (AWJ) cell on a vacuum fixture — cold, burr-free, no router side-thrust, no heat distortion/delamination of the laminate (KMT / Shape Process Automation).
-
In-line NDI (per part, lights-out). Automated ultrasonic / thru-transmission or air-coupled UT + thermography + machine-vision scan for voids, dry spots, delamination, and dimensional conformance; the result auto-accepts/rejects and writes to the digital thread (§7). This is the §6b "in-line machine-vision / AI inspection auto-accepts or rejects each part."
-
Bond shell halves. Mate upper + lower half-shells (and wing skins) in a precise-bondline assembly jig with a toughened structural epoxy at a controlled bond-line thickness; cure RT-to-induction (~80 °C) low enough not to distort the laminate (§6).
-
Bond-in / verify steel frames. Any steel hardpoint not over-molded in step 2 is co-bonded into the assembled shell in-jig, with fastener backups at the highest-load hardpoints (Skyhook hook, engine mount) per §6.
-
Finish. Apply the ablative/reflective anti-laser overcoat (DDR-09, in-mold gelcoat or post-mold spray), conductive mesh/metallized layer or grounding straps for Faraday/EMI (DDR-10), markings, and the belly-skid wear layer (§6). Module is now ready for final airframe integration (doc 16 §4).
5. Tooling plan
5.1 Tool progression (prototype → rate) — skip the splash for rate
| Tier | Tool | Use | Life / cost / lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prototype | CNC epoxy tooling board master/cavity | first articles, fit checks | ~5–10 heated cycles before it embrittles/burns; weeks; low-thousands $ |
| Bridge / LRIP | Large-format AM hybrid tool (short-CF PEI core, e.g. SABIC Ultem EX004 + Hexcel M81/8552 tooling-prepreg skin, Loctite EA9394 bond) | first-article + LRIP shells while steel rate tools are cut | good to 180 °C, demonstrated ~12 cycles; 0.6 m tool $24,136 vs $46,775 Invar (~50% under); full-scale ~30% under Invar, 1/3 the weight |
| RATE (production) | CNC-machined matched-metal STEEL cavities, direct from CAD (no splash) | ≥ 1,000/day | see §5.2 |
The classic master → splash → production-mold chain "requires a lot of time, materials and floor space"; for rate the splash adds error and is pointless — machine the steel cavities directly from CAD (DDR-17 applied to the tooling). Invar is NOT justified — a glass/basalt shell's CTE doesn't demand it, and Invar is the costliest/heaviest option with 8–12 week lead.
5.2 Tool material, heating, sizing
- Material: matched-metal hardened tool steel — P20 or pre-hardened 4140 (~30–32 HRC) for the shell-half cavities (good machinability, FRP workhorse, > 100k shots), H13 hardened 45–50 HRC where heat/wear is highest, 718 for the largest cavities. Single top/bottom cavity per shell (HP-RTM aerospace work simplified tooling to one upper + one lower). Hardened steel lasts hundreds of thousands to millions of cycles (SMC programs > 500k shots).
- Heating: integrated oil-circulation tempering channels (uniform high-throughput thermal control for sub-3-min cycles) plus electric cartridge rods on the smaller steel-frame insert sub-tools; target ~150 °C cure. Integrated Kistler in-cavity pressure + Netzsch dielectric cure sensors for closed-loop lights-out cycling.
- Press sizing: tonnage = projected area × molding pressure. Because WCM runs at ~30 bar (≈ 3 MPa) — far below SMC/HP compression's 15–30 MPa — a large half-shell is achievable in the 1,500–2,500-ton press class (Bucci Composites added 1,500 t and 2,500 t presses 2024; Engel 1,700-t v-duo; Dieffenbacher CompressLite are the WCM/HP-RTM workhorses), not the 4,000+ t HP compression would demand. Exact tonnage = final projected area of each half-shell × chosen process pressure, fixed by closing-pressure FEA once geometry is frozen [TBR].
- Mold split-line / draft / demold: primary split is upper/lower fuselage half-shell at the natural horizontal water-line (and a span-wise split for wing skins) — chosen so each half is an open, drafted, single-direction-demold cavity with no undercuts and net-moldable edges. Add draft (≥ 1–3° [TBR]) on all vertical faces; locate steel-insert pockets to demold with the part.
5.3 Number of tool sets + presses to hit rate
Rate math (DDR-08). Each airframe needs two molded half-shells (upper + lower) plus wing/tail skins; ≥ 1,000 airframes/day ⇒ ~2,000 fuselage half-shells/day (plus skins). At a realistic ~180 s WCM cycle, one single-cavity press makes ~480 halves/day at 24 h (~320 at 16 h). To make 2,000 halves/day at 24 h / 180 s ≈ ~4.2 single-cavity presses of capacity per half type, i.e.:
- ~8–9 single-cavity press-lines total, OR
- ~2–3 press-lines each running 4-cavity tools (BMW already runs 4 cavities to raise output).
Add ~1 spare matched-metal tool set per running tool to cover the ~10-min changeover, planned maintenance, and finite (though large) steel-tool life. Net plan: ~3–9 heated presses + ~12–24 steel tool sets (cavities for upper, lower, each wing/tail skin, and each major steel-frame hardpoint over-mold), plus dedicated insert sub-tools. Precise count hinges on the locked cycle time, cavities/tool, and shift pattern [TBR] — run against a cycle-time calculator once frozen. (Note: this is per the distributed/lights-out line plan — the count is the aggregate across the line set, consistent with doc 16 §6 IN-3 "1,000/day is the aggregate distributed-fleet surge target.")
5.4 Tool cost bands + lead time
| Tier | Cost band | Lead time |
|---|---|---|
| Epoxy board (proto) | low-thousands $ | weeks |
| AM hybrid (bridge) | ~$24k @ 0.6 m; ~30% under Invar at full scale | composite molds ~3–4 wk vs Invar 8–12 wk |
| Hard steel rate cavity (~2 m shell-half) | large multi-figure per tool — quote-only [TBR] × ~12–24 sets | [TBR] (machined steel; weeks–months) |
Public per-tool dollar figures for hard P20/H13/4140 matched-metal tools at this part size are not disclosed — they are quote-only. Modular/insert tooling (interchangeable cavity inserts in a common heated base) can cut tool spend up to 70% vs individual molds and run ~3× faster — worth applying to the steel-frame hardpoint over-mold sub-tools. Action: quote from compression/RTM toolmakers (WIT Mold, MDC/zjmdc, Dramco, Composites Universal, Bucci) and press OEMs (Dieffenbacher, Engel, Schuler/KraussMaffei) against frozen geometry.
6. Bonding & assembly of the monocoque
- Shell-half bond-line. Upper + lower fuselage half-shells (and wing-skin halves) bond with a toughened structural epoxy (3M / Sika / Henkel automotive structural adhesives) or 2K PU at a controlled bond-line thickness held in a precise-bond assembly jig; cure RT-to-induction (~80 °C) to avoid distorting the laminate. Bond-line thickness and jig-hold accuracy are the critical control variables. Epoxies are the benchmark for both composite-to-composite and composite-to-metal structural joints. Bonds qualified for fatigue over ≥ 50 sorties (REQ-07b/15e), not just static.
- Co-bonded / over-molded steel frames. The wing carry-through, engine mount, Skyhook hook, divert-motor reaction, payload-bay ring, and launch-rail/RATO reaction are the bonded-in/over-molded steel hardpoints (the doc-10 welded steel parts, reused). Part-count strategy: over-mold or co-bond rather than mechanically fasten wherever load allows (one molded structure vs. fastened assembly) — the DDR-05 part-count win.
- Fastener backups at the high-load hardpoints (belt-and-suspenders). At the Skyhook hook and engine mount — the highest-load, fatigue-critical, life-safety-of-the-airframe joints — the bond is backed by mechanical fasteners through the steel fitting so a bond-line disbond cannot release the load path. This is the reuse-driven joint reliability rule (recovery loads cycle ≥ 50×).
- Gear-less belly-skid + Skyhook hardpoint. With no landing gear, the molded shell's belly carries a replaceable crushable/abrasion belly-skid (the parachute+airbag-recovery and abort touchdown wear surface) — a field-replaceable molded or elastomer pad scored against the ≤ 30 min turnaround (DDR-15/REQ-09d analog). The Skyhook wingtip capture hardpoint is a bonded-in + fastener-backed steel lug + leading-edge doubler tied into the wing spar so cable snatch reacts as spar tension/bending, not skin tearing (inherits doc 10 §4.1). Both are the structural embodiment of gear-less recovery on a molded shell.
- EMI/Faraday on a non-conductive shell (DDR-10). Unlike doc 10's conductive steel skin, a glass/basalt shell is RF-transparent — so the bay needs an embedded conductive mesh / metallized layer or bonded grounding straps to restore the Faraday shell around the avionics/seeker bay. Booked as a finish-stage operation (§4 step 11). [TBR — mesh vs. metallization vs. conductive-filled gelcoat trade.]
7. QA / digital thread
- In-line NDI, per part, lights-out (§6b). Each demolded part passes an automated UT (air-coupled / thru-transmission) + active thermography + machine-vision station that screens for voids (<2% target), dry spots, delamination, and dimensional conformance, and auto-accepts/rejects — removing the manual-QC bottleneck and giving unit-level traceability (doc 16 §6b verbatim).
- In-process cure assurance. Kistler in-cavity pressure + Netzsch dielectric cure sensors give closed-loop confirmation of full cure on every shot before demold, enabling no-QA-after-load cycling (the lights-out enabler — the same posture HP-RTM serial lines already run with "no QA check after preform load").
- Dimensional. Net-molded surfaces + post-trim probe/structured-light scan on the AWJ fixture verify the trim line and hardpoint locations to the model-based definition.
- Digital thread. Sensor traces (pressure/cure), NDI result, dimensional scan, fiber/resin lot, and tool/cavity ID are written to a per-airframe record keyed to the model-based definition — the same digital thread + autonomous QA doc 16 §6b mandates, and the basis for fleet fatigue tracking across the ≥ 50-sortie reuse life (DDR-15/19).
8. Rate & cost rollup, fit to $130k flyaway / DDR-05/06/07
8.1 Rate
Per §5.3: ~3–9 heated presses + ~12–24 steel tool sets clear ≥ 1,000 airframes/day at a ~180 s WCM cycle across the line set. Each WCM/HP-RTM cell ≈ 120k+ parts/yr ≈ 330+/day; rate is reached by parallel cells + multi-cavity tools, the standard automotive approach. The cells are robot-place + meter + press — they drop onto existing automaker robot lines (§6b / DDR-06).
8.2 Cost — fit to the doc-16 flyaway
The molded-shell variant is scored against doc 16 §8.2 Bucket 1 — Structure ($20,000, 15% of the ≈$130k flyaway), which today reads "steel sheet/plate (52 kg structure), glass/basalt composite, fasteners, adhesive, paint/finish … stamp/weld/bond/rivet labor." The composite-monocoque variant re-mixes that bucket rather than growing it:
- Material: commodity glass/basalt + toughened epoxy is cheap (BMW single-line WCM datapoint: ~€49 raw material / ~€70 part cost per part, 2015). Carbon explicitly avoided (§2) precisely to stay in this band.
- Labor: the monocoque cuts touch-labor and station count (fewer parts/joins, §1) — favorable to Bucket 7 (Assembly/integration, $8,500) and the lights-out direct-labor goal (§6b).
- Tooling/NRE: the hard-steel tool capex is high and quote-only [TBR], but it is NRE amortized over program volume (doc 16 §8.6 / Bucket 8 = $3,000/unit, shrinks with volume) — not a recurring flyaway line item. At ≥ 100k cumulative units the per-unit tool share is small.
- Net: the variant is assessed to hold Bucket 1 at ~$20k (material-neutral, labor-favorable, tool-NRE amortized) — i.e. no breach of the ≈$130k flyaway with ~$20k headroom under the ≤$150k cap, pending the [TBR] hard-steel tool quote and the segmented-vs-one-shot structural knockdown. This obeys the DDR-07/17 anti-Batmobile rule: keep the cheap commodity process, book any small weight/cost delta, no exotic tier.
DDR fit summary: DDR-05 ✔ (largest part-count reduction available), DDR-06 ✔ (automaker-native WCM on existing robot lines), DDR-07 ✔ (commodity glass/basalt, generous net tolerances, accept weight/perf penalty vs carbon), DDR-08 ✔ (press/tool count sized to ≥ 1,000/day), DDR-15 ✔ (continuous-fiber fatigue + co-bonded/fastener-backed recovery hardpoints), DDR-17 ✔ (no autoclave/OOA/carbon/one-shot 3.6 m cavity; CAD-direct steel tools).
9. Honest caveats / open items [TBR]
- R-22 (new) — variant down-select not made. Molded composite monocoque + steel hardpoints (this doc) vs. all-steel weld/rivet semi-monocoque (doc 10) is an open program trade. Doc 10 better fits a hand-built / 1-week-trained line (DDR-06); this variant better fits lights-out automaker robot lines (§6b). Both clear the same DDR gates; neither is frozen.
- [TBR] basalt-in-WCM cycle & resin/sizing qualification. Most public sub-1-min cycle figures are CFRP; the glass/basalt-specific WCM cycle and the basalt fiber-matrix sizing (esp. with thermoplastics) are not yet qualified.
- [TBR] segmented-bonded vs. one-shot structural knockdown. The structural penalty of splitting the monocoque into bonded segments (vs. an idealized one-shot) must be quantified by analysis + coupon test — and the bonded joints qualified for fatigue over ≥ 50 sorties, not just static.
- [TBR] press tonnage. Exact tonnage needs the final projected area of each half-shell × process pressure, fixed by closing-pressure FEA once geometry is frozen. Budget the 1,500–2,500-t band (Bucci/Dieffenbacher reference) pending FEA.
- [TBR] hard-steel tool unit cost & total program tooling capex. Public per-tool figures for ~2 m-class matched-metal cavities are not disclosed; quote-only from named toolmakers/press OEMs against frozen geometry.
- [TBR] fiber-to-steel co-cure/co-bond. Over-mold/co-bond surface prep and durability of the composite-to-steel hardpoint joints under recovery-load fatigue need qualification.
- [TBR] EMI/Faraday method on the RF-transparent shell (mesh vs. metallization vs. conductive-filled gelcoat).
- R-03 inheritance. The Skyhook scaling to ~175 kg (~5× ScanEagle) remains the open recovery risk from doc 10 §4.1 — unchanged by the skin material; the molded shell's job is to feed the snatch load into the steel capture lug + spar, not to react it in glass.
Citations (real, 2025–2026 practice)
- CompositesWorld — Wet compression molding (BMW unattended line, ~180 s, ~30 bar, ~65% FVF, FRIMO/Huntsman cells, €49/€70 datapoint); The rise of HP-RTM (2–3 min, ~120k/yr, Kistler/Netzsch sensors, 30–120 bar); Turnkey manufacturing systems: Simplifying automated HP-RTM (90 s preform, 15 s changeover, no QA after preform load); HP-RTM for serial production of cost-effective CFRP aerostructures (single upper/lower tool, ~1,500 t to ~2 m, Alpex/KraussMaffei); Out-of-autoclave processing: <1% void content? and OOA prepregs: Hype or revolution? (hours-long debulk/cure); Hybrid large-format additive tooling (BAAM hybrid $24,136 vs $46,775 Invar, 12 cycles, 180 °C); New approaches to cost-effective tooling / Mastering the master plug (master→splash chain, board life 5–10 cycles); Composites end markets: Automotive 2025 (glass 92% vs carbon 0.6%); Parts consolidation: key to lower-cost composites; Drones: Composite UAVs take flight.
- FRIMO; Huntsman Transportation; Dieffenbacher (CompressLite, HP-RTM line); Engel (v-duo 1,700 t); KraussMaffei/Schuler; Bucci Composites (1,500 t & 2,500 t presses, 2024).
- WIT Mold; MDC/zjmdc (P20/H13/4140/718, oil/electric heating, tonnage = area × pressure); Macrodyne Compression Molding 101; CORE Molding Technologies.
- KMT Waterjet; Shape Process Automation (robotic AWJ trim). 3M / Sika / Henkel Loctite (structural adhesives, EA9394).
- Fiber Dynamics LCRTM (lost-core one-shot UAV airframe). NETC Basalt Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites; PMC Basalt Fibre-Reinforced Thermoplastic Composites (basalt +35–42% modulus vs E-glass, cost between glass and carbon).
- Internal:
00_seed_design_brief.md(Rev B.1),02_design_driver_register.md(DDR-05/06/07/08/15/17),10_airframe_structures.md(steel semi-monocoque baseline; steel hardpoints),16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.md§6b (lights-out automaker-line doctrine, digital thread + autonomous QA), §8.2 (flyaway buckets).
Bottom line. Mold the WILDFIRE shell as a glass/basalt continuous-fiber monocoque in upper/lower fuselage half-shells + wing/tail skins by wet compression molding on matched hardened-steel tools in ~3–9 robot-tended presses with ~12–24 tool sets, with steel frames/hardpoints over-molded or co-bonded (and fastener-backed) at the wing carry-through, engine mount, Skyhook hook, divert-motor and payload bay, finished by robotic abrasive-waterjet trim and in-line NDI to a per-airframe digital thread. It is the largest part-count reduction available to the airframe, fits the lights-out automaker-robot-line doctrine, and holds the ≈$130k flyaway — pending the named [TBR] qualifications. Not the Batmobile.
§ 15Test, Evaluation & V&V
T&E▾
Test, Evaluation & V&V
T&EPlatform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 (hero) — RECOVERABLE & REUSABLE autonomous multirole combat UAS — with BACKFIRE AGP-2 deltas called out Document role: Defines the Verification & Validation (V&V) program, maps every WILDFIRE requirement to a verification method, sets Key Performance Parameter (KPP) pass/fail thresholds, and establishes readiness for an instrumented, competitive shoot-off that now explicitly includes a reuse / turnaround demonstration. Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets / estimates, not validated test results. Unverified items carry [TBR] (to-be-resolved by analysis/test) or [TBD].
Authoring standard (per seed brief §5): this doc (a) opens with the DDR IDs it satisfies, (b) gives the design + rationale, (c) states key trades + producibility and reusability implications, (d) ends with the Budget contribution block (incl. Reuse impact) and Open issues / [TBR].
REV B FRAMING (overrides all prior revisions of this doc). WILDFIRE is recoverable and reusable: the airframe + seeker + compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition (if any) is expended. Reusability is a primary, family-wide KPP (DDR-15). The prior "strike variant — one-way (no recovery V&V beyond terminal)" framing has been deleted — a one-way airframe is, in Palmer's words, "a total folly… It'll never work" [19:38]. The V&V program is also unconstrained by AIGP competition hardware: the autonomy brain (vision-only nav, MAVLink) is proven heritage, but the article under test uses best-in-class compute (Thor-class, ~1,000–2,000 TOPS), sensors, and propulsion per the manufacturing doctrine (DDR-05/06/07).
0. DDRs satisfied by this document
| DDR | Driver (verbatim, abbreviated) | How this V&V plan addresses it |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-15 (primary) | "kinetics need to be reusable… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [19:32–20:32] | §5.2, §6.5, §10 define reuse-cycle qualification: structural fatigue test to ≥50 sorties, recovery-system test (Skyhook capture / parachute-airbag), turnaround (refuel+rearm) ≤30 min demo, and engine TBO verification. Reuse is now a gating KPP (K12) and a scored shoot-off attribute (§9.5). |
| DDR-19 (primary) | open competitions where companies "compete… at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win." [21:46] | §9 defines an instrumented, scored, live shoot-off package with metrics, range layout, and a self-scoring rehearsal regimen — now including an instrumented recover→turnaround→re-fly demonstration. This is the document's center of gravity. |
| DDR-18 (primary) | "I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI." [33:01] | §8 defines bounded-autonomy safety V&V: deterministic abort, geofence, ROE-gate, human-on-the-loop release, fault injection, and an auditable flight-data record. |
| DDR-01 | "cheaper, better, faster, more resilient to just have on-board autonomy do basically everything." [14:36] | §4 SITL/HITL + §5 free-flight verify mission-complete with radios OFF — including the RTB-for-recovery leg flown radios-OFF. |
| DDR-02 | "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… look out the window… drive to the place… until you see the thing you need and go to it." [16:01] | §4–§5 verify vision-only nav + terminal acquisition and vision-cued recovery rendezvous in GPS/RF-denied conditions. |
| DDR-04 | "completely resistant to all jamming systems, not just… communications, but also… navigation." [15:54] | §4.4 RF/GPS-denied test matrix; §7.2 EW/jam-room verification. |
| DDR-09 / DDR-10 / DDR-11 / DDR-12 | low-cost laser, HPM, and kinetic-divert survivability — and surviving "all three… at the same time." [17:55–19:16] | §7 survivability test (laser, HPM, kinetic-representative) + §7.4 simultaneous-threat campaign, scored as survive-and-return (not survive-to-impact). |
| DDR-05 / DDR-06 / DDR-07 / DDR-08 | mass-producibility KPP; build "a thousand a day"; Caterpillar-factory bill-of-process. [09:11–11:32, 21:55] | §11 First-Article Inspection (FAI) + rate-qualification verifies DFM is real, not aspirational. |
| DDR-13 | "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way." [19:06] | §5.3 free-flight range/endurance verification with representative payload mass to terminal phase, plus the RTB fuel reserve required for recovery. |
| DDR-16 | survivability "takes payload away" from the attacker. [19:16] | §9.4 shoot-off metric quantifies imposed-cost / survivability margin as a scored attribute. |
| DDR-17 | "Don't build the Batmobile." [36:54] | §1.3: the V&V program itself is de-gold-plated — COTS instrumentation, captive-carry before free-flight, no exquisite test articles. |
1. Purpose, philosophy, and scope
1.1 Why this document is shoot-off-shaped
Palmer's procurement thesis is explicit:
"there's a lot of projects that are being run as open competitions where multiple companies can come in using their own money to develop things, and they compete each other with each other at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win the program." — Palmer Luckey, [21:46] (DDR-19)
Therefore the program does not treat V&V as a downstream gate to a captive customer test. It treats the shoot-off as the requirement, and every internal verification activity is structured to retire risk and generate evidence for that day. The internal V&V program is, functionally, a rehearsal of the shoot-off.
A second governing quote frames the economic core of the program — reusability:
"kinetics need to be reusable. We need to get away from this idea that we throw away every interceptor every single time. It'll never work. It's a total folly… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." — Palmer Luckey, [19:32–20:32] (DDR-15)
This is why the V&V program is not finished when the article reaches its target. The mission is verified only when the article returns, is inspected, is refueled/rearmed, and flies again — and when the structure, recovery system, and engine are proven to do that ≥50 times. Reuse V&V (§5.2, §6.5, §10) is therefore co-primary with the survivability and autonomy campaigns, and the shoot-off (§9) now scores a live recover→turnaround→re-fly cycle.
A third governing quote frames the safety half of the program:
"I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hyper-intelligent, truly sentient, hostile AI." — Palmer Luckey, [33:01] (DDR-18)
"Dumb AI" failures — a perception miss, a guidance runaway, an ROE-gate that does not gate — are exactly what bounded-autonomy V&V (§8) exists to find and bound before flight, and to prove auditable after every flight.
1.2 Verification methods (RTM legend)
Every requirement is verified by one or more of the following methods. These map to the Requirements Traceability Matrix (RTM) owned by 03_system_specification.md:
| Code | Method | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| I | Inspection | Visual / dimensional / documentation check (e.g., FAI, mass weigh, part-count, post-sortie reuse inspection). |
| A | Analysis | First-order / model-based prediction (FEA, fatigue spectrum, trajectory sim, link budget, thermal). |
| D | Demonstration | Functional pass/fail without quantitative measurement (e.g., geofence trips, Skyhook capture). |
| T | Test | Instrumented, quantitative measurement against a numeric threshold (incl. fatigue cycling, turnaround clock). |
| S | Simulation | SITL/HITL digital verification, including Monte-Carlo. |
Verification rigor escalates: S → I/A → D → captive-carry T → free-flight T → shoot-off T. No item proceeds to a higher-cost method before the lower-cost method has retired its addressable risk. This sequencing is itself a DDR-17 ("don't build the Batmobile") discipline applied to test dollars.
1.3 Scope and de-gold-plating of the test program (DDR-17)
- In scope: WILDFIRE AGP-1 recoverable/reusable airframe, heritage autonomy core on best-in-class compute, survivability suite, payload + munition-release interface, recovery system (Skyhook capture / parachute-airbag), reuse-cycle / fatigue / turnaround / engine-TBO qualification, manufacturing FAI + rate-qual, and the shoot-off package. BACKFIRE AGP-2 deltas are noted but its full V&V plan lives in
20_variant_backfire_interceptor.md. - De-gold-plated test approach: COTS data-acquisition (DAQ), commercially available threat surrogates, software-in-the-loop ahead of every hardware activity, and production-representative test articles built on the production bill-of-process (not hand-built "engineering specials"). A test article that cannot be built on the production line does not verify a production weapon (DDR-05/06).
- Reuse is verified on the article we fly, not a special: because the airframe is recovered and reused, the same instrumented FTA accrues sorties — the test program is the reuse demonstration. Fatigue articles (T1) absorb the destructive end of the 50-sortie spectrum on the bench so we never have to fly a known life-limited part to failure.
- Explicitly out of scope (no Batmobile): full-environmental qual to legacy MIL-STD profiles that exceed the attritable-cost reusable CONOPS, captive-carry on crewed aircraft we will never field from, and bespoke instrumentation that cannot ride to the shoot-off.
2. Test article plan and build standard
Test articles are tiered so that cheap articles absorb destructive testing and the production-representative articles are reserved for credibility-bearing events. Because WILDFIRE is reusable, flight test articles are expected to fly many sorties each — the FTA fleet is sized for cumulative-cycle accrual, not single-use attrition.
| Tier | Name | Qty (target) | Build standard | Primary use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T0 | Iron-bird / bench rig | 2 | Best-in-class compute + actuators + sensors on a bench; no airframe | HITL, fault injection, ROE-gate, abort logic (§8) |
| T1 | Structural / fatigue article | 2 (1 static, 1 fatigue) | Production materials & joints (steel, rivets, robotic MIG, structural adhesive) | Static + proof loads, full-spectrum fatigue cycling to ≥50 sorties + scatter factor (§6.5), divert-motor structural reaction (§7.3), launch-shock + recovery-arrest load reaction (§5.2) |
| T2 | Survivability coupons + articles | 6 coupons + 2 articles | Production skin/shielding stack-up | Laser/HPM coupon screening + article-level survive-and-return (§7) |
| T3 | Aero/flight test article (FTA) | 3 | Production-representative, instrumented, recoverable | Free-flight envelope, vision nav, evasion, launch + recovery + repeated reuse cycling (§5) |
| T4 | First-Article Inspection (FAI) units | per §11 | Pulled from the actual production line | DFM, rate-qual, shoot-off (§9, §11), production-article turnaround demo |
Build-standard rule (DDR-05/06/07): T3 and T4 articles must be producible with the locked build primitives — "rivet rivet rivet… weld over the whole thing" [11:02] — on the automotive/ag bill-of-process. Any test article using a non-production process (e.g., autoclave CFRP, billet machining) is flagged at the integration review and its results are treated as non-representative until reproduced on a production article. Reuse-robustness corollary: because the structure is sized "heavier… less performance, but… rivet rivet rivet" (DDR-07 [10:01–11:20]) precisely so it can be built cheaply and survive repeated launch/recovery loads, the fatigue article (T1) must be built to the identical joint standard — a hand-bonded joint would non-conservatively flatter fatigue life.
3. KPP matrix and pass/fail thresholds
KPPs are ranked with producibility and reusability first, per the explicit hierarchy in the seed brief and the interview ("the most important thing is to build weapons that we can actually manufacture" [09:11], DDR-05; reusability is "absolutely critical… nobody is taking it seriously enough" [20:46], DDR-15). Thresholds are stated as Threshold (must-meet to be a credible competitor) and Objective (target / stretch). Baseline values trace to seed brief §3.1 (Rev B locked baseline).
| # | KPP | DDR | Threshold (pass/fail) | Objective | Method | Verified in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1 | Producibility / rate | 05,06,08 | Demonstrated build on automotive/ag process; line-train ≤ 1 wk; ≥ 250/day single line, ≥ 1,000/day across distributed lines | ≥ 1,000/day single-site surge | I/A/D | §11 |
| K2 | Unit flyaway cost (volume) | 03,05 | ≤ \$150k | ≤ \$100k (stretch) | A/I | §11.4 |
| K3 | GPS/RF-denied mission completion (incl. RTB) | 01,02,04 | ≥ 90% of representative missions completed end-to-end including return-to-recovery with all radios OFF and GPS denied (terminal CEP per K4) | ≥ 95%; zero RF on critical path | S/T | §4,§5 |
| K4 | Terminal accuracy (vision-only) | 02 | Terminal/munition-release miss distance ≤ 3.0 m CEP vs. a designated representative target, GPS-denied | ≤ 1.5 m CEP | S/T | §4.3,§5.4 |
| K5 | Range / endurance with payload + RTB reserve | 13,15 | Strike radius ≥ 1,350 km (–10% of 1,500 km baseline) carrying ≥ 22 kg to terminal and retaining RTB recovery reserve; OR ISR loiter ≥ 11 h + RTB | 2,500 km / 25 kg / 20 h + RTB | A/T | §5.3 |
| K6 | Anti-laser survivability (survive-and-return) | 09,12,15 | Survive a representative CW laser exposure giving ≥ 100× time-to-kill vs. an unprotected baseline drone, at < \$X parts adder, retaining airworthiness for RTB | ≥ 100× and re-flyable after refurb | T (coupon→article) | §7.1 |
| K7 | HPM/EMP survivability | 10,12 | Avionics survive a representative HPM pulse that reduces effective C-UAS HPM range from tens of km to single-digit-m equivalent (≥ ~1,000× field-density hardening margin) with mission-continue | full mission-continue, no reset | T (chamber) | §7.2 |
| K8 | Kinetic terminal evasion | 11 | Lateral divert generates ≥ R_pk miss-distance (≥ probable-kill-radius of representative frag interceptor, [TBR], target ≥ 8 m) within ≤ 0.5 s of cue, leaving the airframe RTB-capable | ≥ 12 m miss, repeatable, no airframe damage | S/T | §7.3 |
| K9 | Simultaneous tri-threat survival | 12,15 | Survive a scripted laser + HPM + kinetic sequence in one engagement with mission-continue and return-to-recovery | survive + complete + re-fly | T | §7.4 |
| K10 | Bounded-autonomy safety | 18 | Zero uncommanded lethal actions across the full safety campaign; deterministic abort < 500 ms; geofence containment 100%; ROE-gate blocks 100% of out-of-policy releases; complete auditable log every flight | abort < 250 ms; formally analyzed gate | D/T/S | §8 |
| K11 | Shoot-off composite score | 19 | Place in top 1–2 on the published scoring rubric (§9.5) | win outright | T | §9 |
| K12 | Reusability (life + recovery + turnaround + TBO) | 15,19 | (a) Airframe + seeker + compute demonstrated re-flyable to ≥ 50 sorties (T1 fatigue full-life + scatter; FTA accrual); (b) recovery system (Skyhook capture / parachute-airbag) ≥ 20 successful recoveries with ≤ [TBR]% damage rate; (c) turnaround (refuel + rearm + go-no-go) ≤ 30 min by a small team; (d) engine TBO ≥ [TBR] h / ≥ 50 sorties between overhaul | ≥ 100 sorties; turnaround ≤ 15 min; TBO ≥ 200 h | T/D/I/A | §5.2,§6.5,§10 |
Pass/fail rule: A configuration is "shoot-off ready" only when all Threshold columns are met or have an approved [TBR]/waiver with a closure plan. K1, K2, K10, and K12 are gating — a fail on any of these stops progression regardless of flight performance. Producibility (DDR-05), cost (DDR-03), safety (DDR-18), and reusability (DDR-15) are non-negotiable: a drone that cannot be built, cannot be afforded, cannot prove bounded behavior, or cannot come home and fly again is not a credible WILDFIRE.
4. Autonomy V&V — SITL / HITL (DDR-01, 02, 04)
The AIGP heritage stack is the proven brain (seed brief §3.3): vision_pipeline.py (detection + PnP 6-DoF pose), drone_mpc_foundation.py (MPC), rl_controller.py (RL→ONNX policy), mavsdk_bridge.py (MAVLink). The AIGP work is heritage/proof that the vision-only brain flies; V&V verifies that this stack flies the WILDFIRE airframe on best-in-class production compute in GPS/RF-denied conditions — including the return-to-recovery leg — not just a quadrotor in a gate course.
4.1 Software-in-the-loop (SITL)
- Architecture: flight stack (MPC + RL policy) ↔ MAVLink ↔ flight-dynamics model (FDM) of the WILDFIRE V-tail pusher; perception fed by a photorealistic scene renderer producing the camera feeds the vision pipeline expects.
- Coverage: Monte-Carlo over wind (to 25 kt gusts [TBR]), lighting (dawn/dusk/overcast/glare), scene degradation (haze, smoke), waypoint-map error, IMU/baro noise, decoy/spoof targets to verify discrimination, and the return-and-recovery-rendezvous phase (vision-cued approach to the recovery point/Skyhook).
- Exit metric (feeds K3/K4/K12): ≥ 1,000 Monte-Carlo missions flown to recovery, not just to target; mission-completion ≥ 90% end-to-end including RTB, terminal CEP distribution with 3 m threshold, zero geofence/ROE violations (cross-checks K10).
- GPS/RF-denied is the default test condition, not a special case — directly verifying [16:01]: navigate "the way that a pilot would. You look out the window…"
4.2 Hardware-in-the-loop (HITL)
- Rig: T0 iron-bird — best-in-class production compute module (Thor-class, ~1,000–2,000 TOPS, seed §3.1 Rev B — NOT a competition-spec module), real IMUs/baro, real servo actuators loaded against the actuation torque, camera inputs driven by the renderer via real MIPI/USB optics path (or screen-injection [TBR]).
- Purpose: verify real timing, latency, thermal throttling under the Faraday-bay thermal load, and ONNX inference jitter on production silicon — the things SITL cannot see.
- Exit metric: perception→guidance loop closes within the control-rate budget (e.g., ≥ 30 Hz pose update [TBR] on Thor-class compute) under worst-case thermal; no inference dropout that breaks the MPC horizon.
4.3 Terminal-acquisition verification
- Verify the see-then-go terminal mode: hand off from scene/map-matching nav to optical terminal homing on visual target ID, then munition release (the only expended item).
- Inject contested cases: partial occlusion, target motion, multiple similar objects, and adversarial decoys. Record lock-on range, false-target rate, and terminal CEP.
- Pass (K4): ≤ 3.0 m CEP, false-lock rate ≤ [TBR]%, with no RF aid; after release, the airframe re-enters vision-nav RTB.
4.4 RF/GPS-denied test matrix (DDR-04)
| Condition | SITL | HITL | Free-flight (§5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPS fully denied | ✔ default | ✔ | ✔ (cold-start, no GPS chip populated or powered) |
| Comms jammed / radios OFF | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ (transmit inhibited, full mission incl. RTB must complete) |
| GPS spoofed (false fix) | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ partial [TBR] |
| Nav-camera degradation (smoke/glare) | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Recovery rendezvous, radios OFF | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ (vision-cued approach to Skyhook/recovery point) |
This matrix is the verification of DDR-01/04: the complete mission — outbound, terminal, and return-for-recovery — must complete with radios OFF; RF is "opportunistic, never required" (seed §2). Spoof-resistance is verified by demonstrating the vision-nav state estimator rejects an injected false GPS fix (or never consumes GPS at all — preferred architecture).
5. Captive-carry, free-flight, launch & recovery (DDR-01, 02, 13, 15)
5.1 Sequence (risk-gated)
- Tethered / restrained run-ups — propulsion, control surfaces, divert-motor safe-arm logic (no fire), data telemetry validation.
- Captive-carry — FTA mounted on a surrogate carry vehicle (manned chase or larger UAS [TBD]) records live nav-camera feeds and the shadow autonomy output (what the autonomy would command) without authority. Verifies perception/nav in true atmosphere/lighting before the autonomy ever has control authority — the cheapest way to retire vision-nav risk in the real world (a deliberate DDR-17 cost move).
- Free-flight, autonomy-monitored — autonomy has authority; safety pilot/abort on standby; geofenced range; first recovery captures performed here.
- Free-flight, fully autonomous, GPS/RF-denied — the K3/K4 verification flights, flown to recovery.
- Reuse cycling — recovered FTAs are inspected, refueled/rearmed, and re-flown to accrue sorties toward the K12 ≥50-sortie demonstration (§5.2, §10).
5.2 Launch & recovery verification (K12, DDR-15) — REWORKED for reuse
WILDFIRE is runway-independent and recoverable (seed §3.1): rail/RATO launch, Skyhook-cable recovery as baseline, parachute + airbag as alternate (VTOL as a trade). The recovery system is on the critical path for reuse and is verified as rigorously as the weapon function.
- Launch verification: pneumatic/rail and RATO (rocket-assisted) ignition and clean separation; record launch g, exit velocity, pitch authority capture, and launch-shock load into the structure (reacts into the T1 fatigue spectrum, §6.5). Runway-independent per seed §3.1.
- Skyhook capture verification (baseline recovery):
- Captive/rig phase: wingtip-hook engagement on the recovery line at representative approach speeds; measure arrest load, peak g on the captured airframe, hook/structure reaction, and seeker/compute shock (the seeker and compute must survive — they are not expendable, DDR-15).
- Live phase: ≥ 20 autonomous, vision-cued captures (K12b). Score capture success rate, miss/wave-off behavior (must be a safe, deterministic go-around — cross-checks K10 failsafe), and post-capture damage rate ≤ [TBR]%.
- Pass (K12b): ≥ 20 successful recoveries; arrest loads within structural allowable with the K12a fatigue scatter factor preserved; recovered seeker + compute pass post-capture functional test 100%.
- Parachute + airbag (alternate recovery): descent-rate and impact-survivability of the recovered compute + seeker + airframe (not just "the recovered compute/seeker" — the whole article comes home); measure impact g vs. airbag-protected allowable; verify re-flyable after pack repack + inspection.
- Recovery-to-reuse handoff: every recovery event feeds directly into the §10 turnaround clock and the §6.5 fatigue accounting.
Deleted vs. prior revision: the previous "strike variant — one-way (no recovery V&V beyond terminal)" line is removed. There is no one-way WILDFIRE. Every WILDFIRE sortie — strike, ISR, EW, decoy, resupply — ends in a verified recovery. Only the released munition is expended. This is the direct V&V consequence of "I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [20:30].
5.3 Range / endurance verification (K5, DDR-13/15)
- Fly representative cruise (100–130 kt) and loiter (70 kt) profiles with ballast = representative payload mass (≥ 22 kg) carried to the terminal point — verifying the "useful payload the whole way" requirement [19:06].
- RTB reserve is part of the requirement: the verified fuel state at simulated munition-release must retain the return-to-recovery reserve (seed §3.1: ~45 kg fuel incl. RTB reserve). A profile that reaches the target but cannot fly home fails K5 under Rev B, because recovery is mandatory (DDR-15).
- Range demonstrated by a combination of direct fuel-burn extrapolation from instrumented flight + analysis (full 1,500–2,500 km radius is impractical to fly at the shoot-off; a verified fuel-fraction demonstration extrapolated to range including the RTB leg is acceptable, marked [TBR] for full-range validation).
- Pass: demonstrated specific range supports ≥ 1,350 km radius with RTB reserve intact (–10% flag, within seed tolerance) OR ≥ 11 h loiter + RTB.
5.4 Terminal-evasion flight test (K8, DDR-11)
- Live free-flight firing of the lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor on a cued jink (simulated interceptor cue injected by range), measuring lateral displacement vs. time, structural reaction, and post-jink re-acquisition of the target (evasion must not break the mission) and post-jink RTB capability (the airframe survives the evasion intact enough to return — reuse, DDR-15).
- Captive/sled trials (§7.3) precede free-flight to characterize the divert impulse safely.
6. Structural, fatigue & reuse-life qualification (DDR-15, 07, 13) — NEW / gating
This section is the structural backbone of the reusability KPP (K12a). It exists because, under Rev B, the airframe is not consumed — it must survive ≥50 launch-fly-recover cycles with margin.
6.1 Static and proof loads (T1 static article)
- Apply limit and ultimate load cases (max maneuver, gust, launch-shock, recovery-arrest, divert-reaction) to the T1 static article; verify no detrimental deformation at limit, no failure below ultimate (1.5× [TBR]).
- Method: T; instrumented with strain gauges at primary joints (riveted/welded/bonded per DDR-07).
6.2 Reuse-load spectrum definition
- Build a sortie load spectrum = one representative launch (RATO/rail shock) + climb + cruise + loiter gust spectrum + terminal maneuver + divert event (fractional duty cycle) + recovery arrest (Skyhook capture g or parachute-airbag impact). One "sortie block" = one full launch-to-recovery cycle.
- The recovery-arrest and launch-shock events are the reuse-specific additions versus a conventional one-way attritable; they dominate the low-cycle-fatigue end and are characterized first.
6.3 Fatigue test to ≥50 sorties (K12a) — gating
- Test: cycle the T1 fatigue article through the §6.2 sortie-block spectrum for ≥ 50 sortie-blocks × scatter factor (scatter factor ≥ 2 for metallic/composite hybrid primary structure [TBR] → ≥ 100 demonstrated blocks to certify a 50-sortie life with margin).
- Inspections: teardown / NDI (dye-penetrant on welds, ultrasonic on bonded joints, borescope on internal members) at defined intervals; track crack initiation at rivet lines, weld toes, hook/recovery hard-points, and RATO attach lugs.
- Pass (K12a): no failure or unrepairable defect within the demonstrated life; define and publish a retirement-for-cause / inspection interval (e.g., NDI every N sorties) so the fielded reuse life ≥50 is inspection-backed, not assumed.
- Objective: demonstrate ≥100 sortie-blocks toward a ≥100-sortie objective life.
6.4 Hard-point and joint reuse
- The recovery hard-points (Skyhook capture point / parachute riser attach), rail/RATO interface, payload-release rack, and refuel/rearm access are reuse-critical: they see load and handling every sortie. Each gets its own fatigue/wear count and a field-replaceable design where wear is expected (a worn capture hook is a cheap line-replaceable unit, not a reason to retire the airframe — DDR-05/17 producibility logic applied to reuse).
6.5 Reuse inspection & health-monitoring qualification
- Verify the post-sortie inspection procedure (the "I" method applied every turnaround): the small team can perform a go/no-go structural + systems inspection inside the 30-min turnaround budget (§10).
- Verify on-board health/usage monitoring (HUMS-lite [TBR]): load counts, hard-landing/over-g flags, engine-hours, and capture-event log accumulate per sortie to drive condition-based reuse decisions and feed the K12a inspection interval.
7. Survivability test campaign (DDR-09, 10, 11, 12, 15)
The central design tension (DDR-12) is surviving laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously while preserving range + payload — and, under Rev B, surviving well enough to return home and fly again (DDR-15). The campaign verifies each threat at coupon then article level, then the simultaneous case, scored as survive-and-return rather than survive-to-impact.
7.1 Anti-laser (K6, DDR-09/15)
- Surrogate threat: representative CW fiber laser at the irradiance/spot-size class of fielded short-range C-UAS lasers (exact power [TBR]; calibrated against a known unprotected-baseline kill time).
- Coupon screening (T2 coupons): measure time-to-burn-through of the production ablative/reflective skin stack vs. an unprotected plastic baseline. Verifies the "$10 / 100× more survivable" claim [17:55] as an engineering ratio, reported as time-to-kill multiple.
- Article-level: dwell on a representative aim-point on a T2 article; verify structural and avionics survival to the K6 threshold (≥ 100× baseline) and that the article remains airworthy for RTB (or repairable within turnaround). Optional spin (seed §3.1) tested as a dwell-spreading variable.
- Pass (K6): ≥ 100× baseline time-to-kill at the locked parts-cost adder, retaining RTB airworthiness (objective: re-flyable after minor skin refurb — ablative skin panels designed as cheap replaceable items, DDR-05).
7.2 HPM / EMP (K7, DDR-10)
- Facility: anechoic / mode-stirred reverberation chamber and/or a representative HPM source [TBR].
- Article: T2 article with production Faraday avionics bay, transient/EMP protection, optical internal data bus (immune to conducted coupling), and shielded apertures.
- Test: sweep field density up to a representative threat level; verify avionics survive and mission-continue (no reset). Verifies [18:17]: take HPM effective range "from tens of kilometers down to simply meters."
- Instrumentation: internal field probes, bus error counters, brown-out detectors.
- Pass (K7): mission-continue at the threshold field density; characterize the field-density margin (target ≥ ~1,000× hardening per the interview's "thousand times more survivable"). Because the compute + seeker are reused, "survive" means full functional health post-exposure, verified by the §5.2 post-recovery functional test.
7.3 Kinetic divert (K8, DDR-11)
- Sled / drop / captive trials: fire the lateral solid-divert motor; measure lateral impulse, achieved displacement vs. time, body rates, and structural reaction on the T1 article (load also enters the §6.2 fatigue spectrum).
- Miss-distance modeling: combine measured divert performance with a representative interceptor proximity-fuze/frag probable-kill-radius (R_pk) model to compute achieved miss-distance.
- Pass (K8): displacement ≥ R_pk within ≤ 0.5 s of cue (R_pk value [TBR]; target threshold ≥ 8 m), with the airframe remaining RTB-capable post-jink.
7.4 Simultaneous tri-threat (K9, DDR-12/15)
- The credibility event. A single scripted engagement timeline applies, in realistic sequence, a laser dwell + HPM pulse + kinetic divert cue on one article (or a tightly time-correlated series across matched articles where single-shot is impractical — [TBR] facility-limited).
- Why it matters: this is precisely the "almost impossible" constraint Palmer says we impose on the enemy designer [18:46]. Demonstrating that our drone survives it (while keeping payload + range, K5) and returns to fly again (K12) is the differentiator and a scored shoot-off attribute (§9.4, DDR-16).
- Pass (K9): survive the sequence with mission-continue or graceful payload delivery; payload + range KPP (K5) not violated by the hardening mass; article returns to a recoverable state (objective: re-flyable after standard turnaround refurb).
8. Bounded-autonomy safety V&V (DDR-18) — gating
"I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than… hostile AI." — Palmer Luckey [33:01]
This section is gating (K10). A flight-capable, accurate, survivable, reusable drone that cannot prove bounded behavior does not progress. The architecture under test (seed §3.1, §3.3): positive control, ROE/geofence constraints, human-on-the-loop for lethal release, deterministic abort.
8.1 Safety functions and verification
| Safety function | Requirement | Method | Pass/fail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deterministic abort | On abort command or self-detected fault, enter safe state (terminate thrust / deploy chute / safe divert) | T + fault injection | Latency < 500 ms (obj < 250 ms); 100% of injected aborts succeed |
| Geofence containment | Vehicle cannot transit a hard 3-D boundary | D/S/T | 100% containment across Monte-Carlo + ≥ N live trips [TBR]; independent of the autonomy main loop (separate monitor) |
| ROE gate | No lethal release outside policy (target class, geo, time, human authorization) | D/T | 100% of out-of-policy release attempts blocked; 0 false releases |
| Human-on-the-loop release | Lethal release requires positive human authorization signal | D/T | Release impossible without valid auth token; auth expiry honored |
| Failsafe on lost positive control | Defined deterministic behavior (loiter/RTB-to-recovery/terminate per ROE), never "free-roam" | D/S | Correct failsafe in 100% of induced-loss cases |
| Safe recovery wave-off | A failed/aborted recovery approach results in a deterministic, safe go-around or controlled chute deploy — never an uncommanded re-attempt into people/structure | D/T | 100% safe wave-off behavior across induced failed captures |
| Auditable record | Every flight produces a complete, tamper-evident decision/perception log | I/T | Log present + replayable for 100% of flights; supports post-flight ROE audit |
8.2 Fault-injection campaign
On the T0 iron-bird and in SITL: inject sensor dropouts, frozen-frame camera, IMU divergence, compute thermal-throttle, single-bit/burst memory errors (cross-checks HPM hardening, §7.2), and adversarial perception inputs (decoys, spoof targets). Verify the system degrades to a defined safe state, never to uncommanded action. Recovery-phase fault injection (lost line lock, hook miss) is included to qualify the §8.1 safe-recovery wave-off.
8.3 Independence and assurance
- The geofence + abort + ROE gate run on a monitor channel independent of the autonomy main loop (dissimilar/segregated), so a "dumb AI" perception or policy failure cannot disable its own guardrail. Independence verified by fault injection into the main loop while confirming the monitor still trips.
- Where feasible, the ROE gate and geofence are deterministic and statically analyzable (not learned), so they can be argued by analysis (A), not only demonstrated.
- Acceptance (K10): zero uncommanded lethal actions across the entire campaign — a single such event is an automatic fail and a design hold.
9. Shoot-off readiness (DDR-19) — the center of gravity
companies "compete… with each other at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win." — Palmer Luckey [21:46]
The internal program (§4–§8, §10–§11) exists to make this day go well. This section defines what we bring, how we instrument it, and how we expect to be scored. Under Rev B, the shoot-off explicitly includes a live reuse / turnaround demonstration (§9.3) — the recoverable airframe must be shown coming home and going again, not just hitting the target.
9.1 Range layout & threat presentation (representative)
- Denied-environment corridor: GPS denied + comms jammed across the flight corridor; the drone launches (rail/RATO), navigates vision-only to a target area, acquires and prosecutes a designated representative target (releasing the only expended item, the munition), then navigates home, vision-only, to the recovery point.
- Threat gauntlet: representative laser, HPM emitter, and kinetic-interceptor surrogate sited along/near the terminal corridor to score survivability under fire (or scripted, instrumented surrogates where live fire is range-limited — [TBR]). Scoring credits survive-and-return, not survive-to-impact.
- Recovery site: instrumented Skyhook (and/or parachute-airbag drop zone) at the home end of the corridor, with the turnaround crew and timing officials staged (§9.3).
- Mass/rate exhibit: static display of production-line evidence (FAI articles, work instructions, cycle-time data) supporting K1/K2 — because in this program producibility is scored, not assumed (DDR-05).
9.2 Instrumentation package
| Instrument | Measures | Feeds KPP |
|---|---|---|
| Onboard mission DAQ (tamper-evident) | Full state, perception decisions, ROE/geofence events, HUMS load/cycle counts | K3,K4,K10,K12 |
| Independent range tracking (optical + radar truth) | Truth trajectory, terminal miss distance, RTB/recovery approach track | K3,K4,K12 |
| RF spectrum monitor | Confirms transmit-OFF / GPS-denied compliance (outbound and RTB) | K3 (integrity) |
| Laser/HPM field instrumentation | Delivered irradiance / field density | K6,K7 |
| Interceptor-cue & divert telemetry | Cue-to-divert latency, achieved miss-distance | K8 |
| Recovery instrumentation | Capture success, arrest g, post-capture airframe/seeker/compute health | K12 |
| Turnaround timing kit | Refuel + rearm + go/no-go clock, crew size | K12 |
| Production-line audit kit | Cycle time, part count, line-train clock | K1,K2 |
The instrumentation is the same kit used in internal free-flight (§5) and reuse cycling (§10) — no new, unproven measurement chain introduced at the competition (DDR-17).
9.3 Live reuse / turnaround demonstration (NEW — DDR-15 + DDR-19)
The shoot-off readiness package now requires a scored, instrumented recover → inspect → refuel/rearm → re-fly demonstration: 1. The same WILDFIRE that just flew the denied-environment strike profile is recovered (Skyhook capture or parachute-airbag) at the home end. 2. A small team performs the §10 turnaround: post-sortie go/no-go inspection, refuel, reload a fresh munition, re-arm safe/arm, system BIT. 3. The turnaround clock is run by competition timing officials; pass = ≤ 30 min (objective ≤ 15 min). 4. The same airframe relaunches and completes (at minimum) a second representative sortie — visibly proving the seeker, compute, and airframe were "not thrown away" [20:30]. This single demonstration retires the headline reusability claim in front of the customer and directly scores K12 (§9.5).
9.4 Self-scored rehearsals (de-risking the day)
We run ≥ 2 full dress rehearsals on our own range against our own surrogates, scored with the §9.5 rubric, including the full reuse/turnaround demo, and require a passing composite before committing to the competition. "Compete with yourself first" — the rehearsal is the cheapest place to discover a fail (DDR-17).
9.5 Scoring rubric (anticipated; we publish our self-score against it)
Weights reflect the DDR hierarchy: producibility/cost, reusability, and bounded-autonomy safety are weighted heavily; peak performance is not over-weighted (DDR-17, DDR-05/15/18).
| Attribute | Maps to | Weight (anticipated) |
|---|---|---|
| Producibility / rate / line-train (auditable) | K1, DDR-05/06/08 | 22% |
| Unit cost at volume + cost-per-sortie (amortized over ≥50 sorties) | K2,K12, DDR-03/15 | 15% |
| Reusability: ≥50-sortie life + recovery success + ≤30-min turnaround (live demo) | K12, DDR-15 | 18% (gating — fail = disqualify) |
| GPS/RF-denied mission completion (incl. RTB) + terminal accuracy | K3,K4, DDR-01/02/04 | 15% |
| Survivability under fire, survive-and-return (laser/HPM/kinetic, incl. simultaneous) | K6–K9, DDR-09/10/11/12/15 | 18% |
| Bounded-autonomy safety & auditability | K10, DDR-18 | 10% (gating — fail = disqualify) |
| Range/payload demonstrated (with RTB reserve) | K5, DDR-13/15 | 2% |
Cost-per-sortie credit (DDR-15): the cost line is scored on cost-per-sortie (flyaway amortized over ≥50 sorties + fuel + munition → seed target ≤ ~\$3k/sortie airframe-amortized + consumables), not flyaway alone — because reuse is "the final thing at the top of my pinnacle" [19:31] and the program's #1 economic lever. A competitor who throws away the airframe each shot is scored at full unit cost per engagement and loses this attribute decisively.
Imposed-cost credit (DDR-16): survivability is scored not only as self-preservation but as the attacker-cost it imposes — surviving the tri-threat is what forces the enemy's "bombs… smaller… range… down" [19:16]. We document this argument as part of the survivability score narrative.
10. Reuse-cycle qualification & turnaround demonstration (DDR-15, 19) — NEW / gating
This section operationalizes K12 beyond the structural fatigue (§6) and recovery (§5.2) tests: it qualifies the end-to-end reuse cycle and the turnaround time, and verifies engine TBO.
10.1 Recover → inspect → refuel/rearm → re-fly cycle
- Procedure under test: (1) recovery (Skyhook/parachute), (2) safe/de-arm, (3) post-sortie go/no-go inspection (structural quick-look + HUMS download review, §6.5), (4) refuel (heavy fuel, common-fuel mandate), (5) reload + arm a fresh munition (only expended item), (6) BIT/system check, (7) relaunch.
- Verification: run the full cycle repeatedly on FTAs (T3) and on at least one production-line article (T4) to prove the production drone — not a pampered prototype — turns around.
10.2 Turnaround time demonstration (K12c) — ≤ 30 min
- Test: time the §10.1 cycle, steps 1–7, with a small team (target crew size [TBR], e.g., 2–3) using field-level tooling only.
- Pass (K12c): ≤ 30 min refuel + rearm + go/no-go to relaunch-ready (seed §3.1); objective ≤ 15 min. Record the breakdown (recovery handling, inspection, fuel, munition, BIT) to find the binding station — the turnaround is "station-balanced," not a heroics number (same discipline as rate-qual, §11.3).
- De-Batmobile note (DDR-17): turnaround tooling must be field-portable and cheap; if a turnaround needs a hangar full of exquisite GSE, the reusability claim is not operationally real.
10.3 Reuse-life accrual to ≥50 sorties (K12a, in service terms)
- The bench proves life with margin (§6.3, ≥100 blocks). The flight program proves it operationally: FTAs accrue real sorties through the cycle above, with NDI at the §6.3-defined interval, demonstrating an airframe + seeker + compute that genuinely reaches the ≥50-sortie life — and publishing the inspection-backed retirement-for-cause rule that governs fielded reuse.
- Pass (K12a operational): ≥ 50 demonstrated/accredited sorties on a recoverable article with seeker + compute reused throughout and no unrepairable structural defect inside the published inspection interval.
10.4 Engine TBO / time-between-overhaul (K12d)
- Test: endurance-run the baseline heavy-fuel ~25–30 hp 2-stroke EFI pusher (and the turboprop dash option, if fitted) to characterize time-between-overhaul against the reuse-life requirement: the engine must support ≥ 50 sorties (≥ [TBR] h) between scheduled overhaul, consistent with mean sortie length (12–20 h loiter implies the engine, not the structure, may set the binding reuse interval — [TBR] to resolve which life-limiter dominates).
- Method: ground endurance test stand + in-flight engine-hours accrual + post-run teardown/wear inspection.
- Pass (K12d): demonstrated/projected TBO ≥ 50 sorties-equivalent with a defined overhaul interval and overhaul-on-an-automotive/ag-line procedure (DDR-06 — the engine is overhauled, not discarded; consistent with "I'm not throwing away my… engine" [19:52]).
10.5 Reusability acceptance (K12) — gating summary
K12 passes only when all of: (a) fatigue life ≥50 sorties + scatter (§6.3), (b) recovery ≥20 successful captures with seeker/compute health (§5.2), (c) turnaround ≤30 min (§10.2), and (d) engine TBO ≥50 sorties (§10.4) are met — plus the live shoot-off reuse demo (§9.3) is performed. A fail in any sub-element holds the program (reusability is non-negotiable, DDR-15).
11. Manufacturing first-article + rate-qualification (DDR-05, 06, 07, 08) — gating
Producibility is co-#1 KPP with reusability. The V&V program treats the factory as a system under test, verifying the bill-of-process is real on an automotive/ag line — "train them how to make it in 1 week, and missiles start coming off the line" [21:55].
11.1 First-Article Inspection (FAI)
- Full dimensional + process inspection of the first production-line article: part count (< 120 structural parts, K1/DDR-06, seed §3.1 Rev B), confirm only the locked build primitives are used (stamped/rolled/press-braked steel + sheet, glass/basalt composite, rivets + robotic MIG + structural adhesive, single-stage press radii, generous tolerances — seed §3.1).
- Pass: zero non-conforming processes outside the automotive/ag primitive set; mass within MTOW rollup tolerance (175 kg MTOW, ~80 kg empty — seed §3.1 Rev B).
11.2 Process qualification on a representative line
- Demonstrate the build on tooling/skills representative of a "Ford / GM / John Deere / Caterpillar" line [21:55] (or allied second-source, DDR-20).
- Line-training KPP: start a clock when a previously-untrained crew receives the work instructions; pass = first conforming article in ≤ 1 week (K1/DDR-06).
11.3 Rate-qualification
- Run a sustained-rate trial to demonstrate cycle time supporting the rate KPP: ≥ 250/day single line (threshold) scaling to ≥ 1,000/day distributed (objective) — "build a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade" [11:32].
- Measure: takt time, first-pass yield, scrap/rework, and bottleneck station. Verify rate is station-balanced, not a single-shift heroics number.
- Reuse multiplies effective fleet: because each airframe flies ≥50 sorties, a given production rate yields ~50× the effective sortie capacity of a one-way design — captured in the §9.5 cost-per-sortie credit (DDR-15).
11.4 Cost verification (K2, DDR-03/15)
- Roll up volume unit cost from the FAI + rate-trial actuals; verify ≤ \$150k flyaway (stretch ≤ \$100k, seed §3.1 Rev B). Confirm compute is a "rounding error" [15:48] — even the best-in-class Thor-class edge-AI module remains a small fraction of flyaway (DDR-03).
- Cost-per-sortie roll-up (K12 / DDR-15): combine verified flyaway, the demonstrated ≥50-sortie life (§6.3/§10.3), turnaround labor (§10.2), fuel burn (§5.3), and munition cost into a cost-per-sortie estimate; target ≤ ~\$3k/sortie airframe-amortized + fuel + munition (seed §3.1). This is the headline economic number scored at the shoot-off.
12. BACKFIRE AGP-2 V&V deltas (DDR-15, summary)
Full plan in 20_variant_backfire_interceptor.md. WILDFIRE and BACKFIRE share the same reusability doctrine and reuse-V&V machinery (§5.2, §6, §10). Net deltas this program must add for BACKFIRE:
- Reusability V&V (shared method, interceptor parameters): recover → inspect → refuel/rearm → re-fly cycle at interceptor speeds/loads; verify airframe + seeker + compute survive ≥50 reuse cycles [TBR]; cost-per-engagement = fuel (+ optional warhead); turbine TBO characterization. Uses the same K12 framework as WILDFIRE.
- Intercept-envelope test: closing-geometry intercepts to ~15–25 km / ~6 km alt [TBR]; hit-to-kill (no warhead, fully reusable) vs. proximity-frag (replaceable) selectable kill verification — verifying the kill mechanism is itself reuse-compatible.
- Open-network ingest (DDR-14): verify it ingests tracks from an off-board sensor via the common open track format and cues to the effector — a sensor-to-shooter interoperability test, not present on baseline WILDFIRE (which is mission-complete radios-OFF).
- Shoot-off scoring for BACKFIRE adds cost-per-shot and sorties-per-airframe as primary attributes (the same reuse economics as WILDFIRE).
13. V&V schedule logic (phasing, not calendar)
Phase 0 SITL Monte-Carlo + bench (T0) → retire autonomy + safety logic risk (K3,K4,K10)
Phase 1 HITL on best-in-class compute (T0) → retire timing/thermal/inference risk
Phase 2 Survivability coupons (T2) → retire laser/HPM material risk (K6,K7)
Phase 3 Static + fatigue spectrum start (T1) → retire structure + REUSE-LIFE risk (K12a)
Phase 4 Divert sled + structural reaction (T1) → retire kinetic-evasion risk (K8)
Phase 5 Captive-carry (T3, shadow autonomy) → retire real-world vision-nav risk
Phase 6 Free-flight + LAUNCH & RECOVERY (T3) → verify K3,K4,K5,K8 + recovery (K12b)
Phase 7 REUSE CYCLING + TURNAROUND (T3/T4) → verify K12a/c/d (life, turnaround, TBO) — GATING
Phase 8 Article survivability + tri-threat → verify K6,K7,K9 (survive-and-return)
Phase 9 FAI + rate-qual + cost (T4) → verify K1,K2 (gating)
Phase 10 Self-scored dress rehearsals (incl. → verify K11 readiness
live reuse/turnaround demo)
Phase 11 SHOOT-OFF (strike + recover + re-fly) → K11 + K12 live
Gating phases — K1/K2 producibility (Phase 9), K10 safety (Phase 0 onward), and K12 reusability (Phase 3 fatigue + Phase 7 reuse/turnaround) — can stop the program regardless of flight results.
14. Key trades & producibility / reusability implications
| Trade | Decision | Rationale (DDR) |
|---|---|---|
| Bespoke vs. COTS instrumentation | COTS + reused across internal/shoot-off | DDR-17; avoids un-validated measurement chain at competition |
| Hand-built "engineering special" vs. production-process test articles | Production-process T1/T3/T4 articles | DDR-05/06; a non-producible/non-representative article doesn't verify a producible, fatigue-true reusable weapon |
| Fly an airframe to failure vs. bench-fatigue + scatter factor | Bench-fatigue T1 to ≥100 blocks; fly FTAs to accrue real sorties | DDR-15; cheap to discover life limits on the bench, expensive (and unsafe) to find them in flight |
| Skyhook capture vs. parachute-airbag (vs. VTOL) recovery | Skyhook baseline; parachute-airbag alternate; VTOL a trade | DDR-15/17; runway-independent, low-GSE, reuse-compatible — VTOL mass penalty traded against recovery simplicity |
| Discard vs. overhaul engine | Overhaul on automotive/ag line; characterize TBO | DDR-15 ("not throwing away my… engine" [19:52]) + DDR-06 |
| Live tri-threat vs. scripted surrogate | Scripted/instrumented surrogate where live is range-limited; live where feasible | Cost + range safety, still verifies K9 ([TBR] fidelity) |
| Fly full 1,500–2,500 km range vs. fuel-fraction extrapolation | Extrapolation + analysis at shoot-off, RTB reserve verified | Practicality; full-range validation [TBR] |
| Learned vs. deterministic ROE gate/geofence | Deterministic, independent monitor | DDR-18; statically analyzable, "dumb-AI"-proof |
| Score flyaway cost vs. cost-per-sortie | Score cost-per-sortie (flyaway ÷ ≥50 sorties + consumables) | DDR-15; reuse is the #1 economic lever — a one-way competitor loses this decisively |
Budget contribution
This document defines a process (the V&V / test / reuse-qualification program); it adds no recurring mass, power, or unit cost to the flying WILDFIRE airframe. Subsystems that do add mass/power/cost (compute, survivability skin/shielding, divert motor, sensors, recovery hardware) carry those in their own docs (12, 13, 11, 18). The flyaway-article numbers below are reported as 0, with the non-recurring (NRE) test-program cost noted separately for program planning (it is not part of the ≤\$150k flyaway unit cost).
- Mass: 0 kg added to WILDFIRE MTOW (175 kg, seed §3.1 Rev B).
- Onboard tamper-evident DAQ / flight-test instrumentation + HUMS-test harness rides only on test articles (T3), not production articles → 0 kg to production MTOW. (Test-only DAQ + harness ≈ 0.5–1.0 kg on FTA, [TBR], removed for production. Note: a production HUMS-lite for reuse is small and is budgeted in
18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md/ avionics, not here.) - Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W added to the production electrical budget.
- Test-article DAQ draws ≈ 10–25 W on FTA only, [TBR]; not in the production power budget.
- Unit cost (volume): \$0 contribution to the per-unit flyaway cost (target ≤ \$150k, seed §3.1 Rev B).
- Non-recurring test-program cost (NRE, not in flyaway), rough order [TBR]:
- Test articles T0–T3 (built on production process, recoverable/reused to amortize): \$[TBR]
- Fatigue/structural test rig + ≥100-block cycling (K12a): \$[TBR]
- Recovery-system test (Skyhook rig / parachute-airbag drop trials, K12b): \$[TBR]
- Turnaround-demo tooling + crew time (K12c): \$[TBR] (deliberately low-cost / field-portable per DDR-17)
- Engine endurance / TBO stand (K12d): \$[TBR]
- Survivability test facility access (laser, HPM chamber) + surrogates: \$[TBR]
- Range time, instrumentation, tracking truth: \$[TBR]
- Shoot-off entry + travel + range fees: \$[TBR]
- This NRE is paid out of program/IRAD ("companies… using their own money," [21:46], DDR-19) and is amortized across the program, not loaded onto the \$150k unit.
- Reuse impact: This document is the primary verification authority for the reusability KPP (DDR-15) — it does not itself change reuse life, turnaround, or cost-per-sortie, but it proves them:
- Reuse life: §6.3 bench fatigue (≥100 blocks → ≥50-sortie life + scatter) + §10.3 operational accrual certify the ≥50-sortie target and publish the inspection-backed retirement-for-cause rule that protects it.
- Turnaround: §10.2 + §9.3 demonstrate and time the ≤30-min refuel+rearm turnaround (objective ≤15 min) with a small team — the operational enabler of high sortie-rate reuse.
- Cost-per-sortie: §11.4 rolls verified life + turnaround + fuel + munition into the ≤ ~\$3k/sortie airframe-amortized + consumables figure scored at the shoot-off (§9.5). The whole V&V architecture (survive-and-return scoring, RTB-reserve in K5, recovery in K12) exists to ensure the airframe, seeker, and compute are "not thrown away" [20:30] — so reuse economics are real and verified, not assumed.
- Assumptions / [TBR]:
- Reuse-life scatter factor (≥2 assumed → ≥100 demonstrated blocks for 50-sortie life), recovery success/damage-rate thresholds, turnaround crew size, and engine TBO hours are all [TBR] pending analysis/test.
- Representative threat levels (laser irradiance, HPM field density, interceptor R_pk) are [TBR] pending threat-intel sign-off; KPP thresholds K6/K7/K8 are stated as ratios/margins against an unprotected baseline so they remain valid as absolute threat numbers firm up.
- Full 1,500–2,500 km range demonstrated by extrapolation (with RTB reserve verified), not full-distance flight at shoot-off ([TBR] full-range validation flight).
- Single-shot simultaneous tri-threat (K9) may be facility-limited to a time-correlated surrogate sequence ([TBR] fidelity).
- Captive-carry surrogate vehicle is [TBD]; recovery baseline is Skyhook with parachute-airbag alternate (VTOL a trade, seed §3.1).
- Geofence/abort live-trip count N and the WILDFIRE/BACKFIRE reuse-cycle count are [TBR].
- Deterministic-vs-learned boundary for ROE gate assumed statically analyzable; assurance argument [TBR].
- Whether the engine TBO or the structure sets the binding reuse-life limiter is [TBR] (long loiter sorties may make engine-hours dominate).
Open issues / [TBR]
- [TBR] Reuse-life scatter factor and the bench-block count required to certify ≥50 (and ≥100 objective) sorties; NDI inspection interval and retirement-for-cause rule (K12a).
- [TBR] Recovery-system qualification thresholds — Skyhook capture success rate, arrest-g allowable, post-capture seeker/compute damage rate, parachute-airbag impact-g allowable (K12b).
- [TBR] Turnaround-demo crew size and station-balance; closure of the ≤30-min (obj ≤15-min) refuel+rearm clock with field-portable GSE (K12c, DDR-17).
- [TBR] Engine TBO hours / sorties-between-overhaul and the dominant reuse-life limiter (engine vs. structure); turboprop-dash-option TBO if fitted (K12d).
- [TBR] Threat-surrogate calibration: convert "representative" laser/HPM/kinetic into signed numeric KPP thresholds once threat-intel baseline is approved; confirm survive-and-return scoring is accepted by the competition.
- [TBR] Tri-threat (K9) test fidelity — single-article simultaneous vs. time-correlated multi-article; facility availability.
- [TBR] Full-range (K5) validation strategy with RTB reserve — partial flight + fuel-fraction extrapolation vs. a single long-endurance flight.
- [TBR] Independent safety-monitor assurance level and whether formal methods are applied to the ROE gate and the new safe-recovery wave-off (DDR-18 rigor).
- [TBR] Shoot-off scoring rubric is anticipated; reconcile §9.5 weights (esp. the new reusability and cost-per-sortie attributes) once the competition's official scoring is published.
- [TBD] Captive-carry host vehicle and HITL camera-injection method (optical vs. screen-injection).
- [TBR] Rate-qual demonstration site (in-house vs. allied/automotive partner line, DDR-20) and the protocol for the ≤1-week line-training clock; engine-overhaul-on-an-automotive/ag-line procedure (DDR-06).
§ 16Recovery System, Turnaround & Reuse Lifecycle
REUSE▾
Recovery System, Turnaround & Reuse Lifecycle
REUSEProgram: AGP Autonomous Air System Family — Reusable Autonomous Combat UAS
Document role: Owns the physical recovery system, the launch system that pairs with it, the autonomous precision-recovery guidance task, the ≤30-min turnaround workflow, the ≥50-sortie reuse-life management regime, and the cost-per-sortie economics. This is the document that embodies Palmer Luckey's reusability mandate (DDR-15) in hardware, process, and dollars.
Maps to baseline: §3.1 of 00_seed_design_brief.md (Rev B) — MTOW 175 kg, empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, fuel ~45 kg incl. RTB reserve, payload up to 25 kg, no landing gear, rail/RATO launch + Skyhook-cable recovery (parachute+airbag alt; VTOL trade), reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR], turnaround (refuel+rearm) ≤ 30 min, flyaway ≤ $150k, cost-per-sortie ≤ ~$3k airframe-amortized + fuel + munition.
Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are targets or estimates; unverified items carry [TBR] / [TBD].
Rev B framing (the heart of this document). WILDFIRE is NOT a one-way airframe. The airframe + seeker + compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, health-checked, and reused; only the munition (if any) is expended. Palmer is emphatic — a throwaway airframe is "a total folly" [20:22] — and that framing is designed out here. This document exists because the program owner names reusable kinetics "the final thing at the top of my pinnacle" [19:30]. Every other WILDFIRE subsystem doc designs to reusability; this doc owns the means of achieving it.
1. DDRs Satisfied (traceability)
| ID | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey) | Engineering requirement discharged here |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-15 (PRIMARY) | "kinetics need to be reusable… we throw away every interceptor every single time. It'll never work. It's a total folly… they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [20:22 / 19:32–20:32] | The whole document. Runway-independent launch (§3), recovery to preserve airframe+seeker+compute (§4), ≤30-min turnaround (§6), ≥50-sortie reuse-life management + health monitoring + retirement criteria (§7), and cost-per-sortie economics (§8). |
| DDR-13 | "flies long ranges, carries a useful payload the whole way." [19:06] | Recovery only matters if the airframe gets home: the fuel ledger (owned by 11_propulsion_power) holds a fixed RTB/recovery reserve (§4.4) so every sortie ends in capture, not a forced landing. |
| DDR-19 | open competitions where companies "compete… at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win." [21:46] | The recovery + turnaround + re-sortie sequence is an instrumented, scored, gating shoot-off demonstration (K12, owned by 17_test_verification_validation); this doc defines what is demonstrated (§4.5, §6.4, §7.5). |
| DDR-02 / DDR-04 | "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio… look out the window and… drive to the place… until you see the thing you need" [16:01]; "completely resistant to all jamming… not just communications but also navigation." [15:54] | Terminal recovery is a vision-nav task (§5): GPS/RF-denied approach to the recovery point and Skyhook engagement, executed by the heritage autonomy brain. No RF on the recovery critical path. |
| DDR-01 | "on-board autonomy do basically everything." [14:36] | Recovery completes radios-dark (§5.4). RF is opportunistic re-tasking only. |
| DDR-05/06/07 | "valuing mass producibility… heavier planes, less performance, but… rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing." [09:11 / 10:19–11:06] | Recovery hardware uses commodity primitives (steel boom, pneumatics, bungee/cable, commodity solid RATO grain); the same robust steel sections that satisfy DFM are what give the airframe its fatigue/reuse life (§7.1). |
| DDR-17 | "not building the cool thing… focus on things that… can actually get funded and deployed." [36:54] | VTOL recovery is carried as an honest trade and rejected as baseline (§4.3) — lift rotors are exactly the high-part-count Batmobile content the program excludes. Recovery rig shares the airframe's existing primary load path (§4.1). |
| DDR-20 | "as a consolation prize our close allies… Japanese automotive workers." [23:24] | GSE is buildable and supportable by allied/distributed industry; the logistics footprint (§9) is deliberately small and dispersed. |
| DDR-08 | "build a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade." [11:32] | Reuse multiplies the production surge: effective fleet sorties = units built × sorties-per-unit (§7.6, §8). A ≤30-min turnaround lets one airframe fly many sorties/day. |
Secondary interfaces: DDR-09/10/11/12 (survivability buys the return so the airframe survives to be reused — 13_survivability_ew_hardening), DDR-03/18 (recovery decisions logged on the auditable autonomy log; reuse qualification is data-driven, not guesswork).
2. Design philosophy — recovery as the economic engine
Every dollar of survivability (DDR-09/10/11/12) and every kilogram of robust steel structure (DDR-07) buys the airframe's return. Return enables reuse. Reuse is what collapses cost-per-engagement to fuel + (optional) munition — the single biggest lever Palmer identifies for beating mass-produced threats. The causal chain is the program thesis:
survive → return → recover → turn around → re-fly ≥50× ⇒ cost-per-sortie ≈ fuel + munition
This document is engineered so that no link in that chain depends on RF (DDR-01/04), no link requires a runway or landing gear (DDR-05/06/07), and no link is gold-plated (DDR-17). The recovery system is deliberately the cheapest credible hardware that preserves a 175 kg airframe + a Thor-class brain + an EO/IR seeker through ≥50 launch–fly–recover cycles.
Division of ownership (to avoid double-counting in the Integration rollup):
- Structural recovery load paths (capture lug, doublers, riser hardpoint) and empty structural mass → 10_airframe_structures.
- Fuel ledger incl. RTB reserve, engine TBO, refuel-port plumbing → 11_propulsion_power.
- Vision-nav perception/guidance modules (heritage brain) → 12_autonomy_compute_software.
- Flyaway-cost buckets + GSE-as-infrastructure accounting → 16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.
- Reuse/turnaround verification (K12, fatigue test, capture test, turnaround stopwatch) → 17_test_verification_validation.
- This doc owns: the recovery system design + trade, capture-load/footprint first-order analysis, the precision-recovery guidance task definition, the turnaround process, the reuse-life management regime (intervals, retirement criteria, HUMS concept), and the consolidated cost-per-sortie model.
3. Launch System — runway-independent (rail / pneumatic + RATO)
WILDFIRE has no landing gear (locked baseline) and is therefore launched without a runway. Launch and recovery GSE co-locate at the same dispersed point so a single small team owns the full cycle.
3.1 Baseline launch modes
| Mode | Description | When used | Expended item | DFM / reuse note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pneumatic/hydraulic rail (baseline) | Reusable catapult rail accelerates WILDFIRE to flying speed (rail exit ~35 m/s [TBR] at 175 kg MTOW) | Garrison, fixed sites, ships-of-opportunity, prepared FOB | None — rail is reusable GSE | Commodity steel + pneumatics/hydraulics; buildable by allied auto/ag industry (DDR-06/20) |
| RATO — rocket-assisted takeoff | Strap-on commodity solid booster, jettisoned after burnout, for sites with no rail | Austere/dispersed launch, rapid surge, no rail available | Booster only (commodity solid grain — same supply logic as the divert motor, DDR-11) | Single-use grain is cheap, common, and the only launch consumable; airframe is untouched |
Both modes are runway-independent and radios-dark loadable — the full mission (waypoint corridor, target signature set, ROE/geofence, recovery point + alternate) is loaded before release; no uplink is required between load and launch (DDR-01).
3.2 First-order launch energetics
At MTOW 175 kg and rail exit ~35 m/s [TBR], kinetic energy at release:
E_launch = ½ · m · v² = 0.5 · 175 kg · (35 m/s)² ≈ 107.2 kJ
For a rail stroke length L_stroke the required mean acceleration and rail length trade:
a = v² / (2·L) ; peak g = a / 9.81
| Rail stroke L | Mean accel a | Peak g (≈) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 m | 102 m/s² | ~10.4 g | short rail, higher structural launch shock |
| 9 m | 68 m/s² | ~6.9 g | balanced [TBR baseline] |
| 12 m | 51 m/s² | ~5.2 g | gentler on structure/payload, longer/heavier rail |
Launch shock reacts into the center torque box (the same welded steel member that reacts recovery load — 10_airframe). The reuse-load spectrum (17_test §6.2) treats one launch shock + one recovery arrest as the two reuse-specific low-cycle-fatigue events per sortie block. Assumption: ~9 m stroke, ~7 g launch shock, jerk-limited acceleration profile to protect the EO/IR gimbal and compute. [TBR by 10_airframe / 11_propulsion.]
4. Recovery System
4.1 BASELINE — Skyhook-style cable / vertical capture (gear-free)
Concept (heritage-proven). WILDFIRE vision-navigates to the recovery point and flies into a vertically-suspended capture cable extended from a boom on a ground vehicle, trailer, or ship rail. A hardened hook/capture point near the wingtip (owned structurally by 10_airframe §4.1) engages the cable; the cable's elastic give-back plus a boom/bungee/reel arrestor decelerates the airframe to rest, after which it is lowered, inspected, and re-cradled. This is the same operating principle as the fielded ScanEagle/Skyhook recovery — scaled up for a 175 kg MTOW airframe [TBR] (heritage systems recover ~22 kg class; the scaling is the dominant engineering risk in this section). Note the capture is sized to the recovery mass (~108 kg), not the 175 kg MTOW — fuel is largely burned and the munition is released before recovery.
Why wingtip capture suits WILDFIRE (DDR-17 — no Batmobile recovery rig): - The pusher prop is clear of the capture path (a nose prop would foul the cable) — the locked pusher configuration is recovery-friendly by design. - The V-tail is clear of the engagement region. - The wing spar is already the strongest member, so capture tension reacts as spar tension/bending through the existing primary load path — no bespoke recovery structure. - No landing gear to bend, fold, or re-rig between sorties — the classic hard-landing damage source is deleted (this is also a reuse-life win, DDR-15).
4.1.1 First-order capture (arrest) load
The arrest decelerates the airframe from approach speed to rest over the cable/arrestor give-back distance d. Approach into the cable is flown near the low end of the speed envelope (loiter ~70 kt is too fast for a tip capture; we plan a slowed engagement ~25–30 m/s [TBR] with the engine near idle/feathered for the final segment).
v_engage ≈ 28 m/s (≈ 54 kt) [TBR]
m_recover ≈ 108 kg (empty-equipped ~104.5 kg + RTB-reserve fuel; mission fuel near-burned, munition released; structure + seeker + compute retained — NOT the 175 kg MTOW)
KE_arrest = ½ · m · v² = 0.5 · 108 · 28² ≈ 42.3 kJ
Arrest distance vs. peak deceleration (a = v²/(2·d)):
| Give-back distance d | Mean decel a | Peak g (≈) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 m | 131 m/s² | ~13 g | short, stiff cable — high g into seeker/compute |
| 5 m | 78 m/s² | ~8 g | baseline target [TBR] — within structural allowable w/ fatigue scatter factor |
| 8 m | 49 m/s² | ~5 g | softer arrest, larger boom/bungee throw, gentler on payload |
The seeker and compute must survive the arrest — they are not expendable (DDR-15). The ~8 g baseline is selected to keep peak shock well inside the EO/IR gimbal and Thor-module shock allowables with margin; the captive-rig test (17_test §5.2) measures the actual peak g on the captured airframe and on the seeker/compute. Assumptions: rigid-body energy method (ignores cable wave dynamics, aero drag during arrest, and engagement off-center torque); a scatter/dynamic-amplification factor ≥1.5 is applied before sizing the capture fitting [TBR]. Off-center (one-tip) capture induces a yaw/roll torque the boom-and-bridle geometry must react — characterized on the rig.
4.1.2 Ground equipment & footprint (Skyhook)
| Element | Description | Indicative spec |
|---|---|---|
| Recovery boom | Telescoping/folding steel mast carrying the vertical capture cable | ~10–15 m effective capture height [TBR]; commodity steel |
| Cable + arrestor | Capture cable + bungee/reel give-back tuned to ~5 m throw, ~8 g | reusable; cable is a wear-counted LRU |
| Carrier | Truck/trailer-mounted (land) or rail-mounted (ship) | mobile, dispersible, single-vehicle |
| Capture footprint | Approach corridor + boom keep-out; no flat graded surface required | a clearing/road shoulder/ship deck suffices — not a runway |
| Crew | Part of the 2–3-person pit crew (§6) | no dedicated recovery team |
Footprint advantage (DDR-05/06/07/15): the recovery point is a boom on a vehicle, not an airfield. It is cheap, mobile, many, and ship-compatible — which is precisely what enables dispersed/distributed operation (DDR-20) and zero per-sortie ground consumable.
4.2 ALTERNATE — parachute + airbag
For sites without a Skyhook rig, or as a contingency abort-to-recover:
| Element | Description |
|---|---|
| Recovery chute | Deployed at a designated zone; descent rate sized so airbag-protected impact g ≤ structural/seeker allowable |
| Airbag | Belly airbag inflates pre-touchdown; protects seeker/compute (the recovered items) |
| Footprint | Larger drop zone + wind-drift dispersion ellipse (vs. Skyhook's point capture) |
| Per-sortie cost | Small consumable: chute repack + occasional airbag service each recovery |
Trade vs. Skyhook: parachute+airbag is simpler infrastructure (no boom vehicle) and is the natural emergency/abort recovery (e.g., engine-out on the RTB leg using the get-home-on-battery glide reserve, 11_propulsion §7). But it has a larger landing footprint, a wind-drift dispersion, and consumes/repacks a chute each sortie. Skyhook is primary for the ≤30-min, zero-footprint, ship/vehicle-compatible, zero-consumable turnaround; parachute+airbag is the alt/contingency mode every airframe also carries.
4.3 TRADE — VTOL lift modules (carried, rejected as baseline)
| VTOL lift modules | Skyhook (baseline) | |
|---|---|---|
| Pros | Zero-footprint vertical recovery anywhere; no boom vehicle; gentle touchdown | Gear-free; minimal airframe mass; zero per-sortie consumable; heritage-proven principle |
| Cons | Lift fans/tilt mechanisms = high part count, high mass, high cost (Batmobile content, DDR-17); dead mass + drag every sortie steals range and RTB reserve (DDR-13/15); new failure modes; conflicts with steel-DFM doctrine | Requires boom GSE at the recovery point; up-scaling to the ~108 kg recovery mass (175 kg MTOW) is the key [TBR] |
| Range/cost impact | Lift hardware (rotors, motors, batteries, tilt actuators) is dead weight in cruise → directly erodes the 1,500–2,500 km radius and the RTB reserve; raises flyaway above the ≤$150k target | Capture lug + doublers add only ~kg-class mass on the existing spar (§ Budget); GSE is shared infrastructure, not flyaway cost |
| Verdict | Rejected as baseline (DDR-17). Carried as a customer-funded trade only if a specific mission mandates point-vertical recovery with no GSE and accepts the range/cost penalty. Consistent with the airframe doc's rejection on identical grounds. | Baseline. |
Rationale. VTOL recovery optimizes the footprint metric at the direct expense of the range, reserve, mass, and cost metrics that the locked baseline and DDR-13/15 prioritize. Adding lift rotors to a long-range strike/ISR airframe to avoid a $200–500k shared boom is the textbook "Batmobile" trade Palmer rejects [36:54]. We keep the trade on the books for honesty; the baseline is Skyhook.
4.4 Recovery depends on the RTB reserve (DDR-13/15)
Recovery is only achievable if the airframe arrives with energy to fly the approach and accept ≥2 wave-offs. The fuel ledger (11_propulsion §3.5) holds a fixed RTB/recovery reserve (~4.0 kg) that is never planned-burned, plus a 5% contingency (~2.0 kg). Critically, an adverse aero/SFC swing eats into mission radius, not the reserve — so the airframe still comes home even when range underperforms. There is no fielded WILDFIRE profile that lacks the reserve to recover (a profile that reaches the target but cannot return fails K5, 17_test §5.3).
4.5 What gets verified (handoff to 17_test, DDR-19)
Captive-rig arrest-load + seeker/compute shock; ≥20 autonomous vision-cued live captures (K12b) with deterministic safe wave-off; post-capture damage rate ≤ [TBR]%; recovered seeker+compute pass post-capture functional test 100%; parachute+airbag descent-rate/impact survivability + re-flyability after repack.
5. Autonomous Precision Recovery as a Vision-Nav Task (DDR-01/02/04)
Recovery is not a separate problem from navigation — it is the terminal phase of the same vision-only mission, flown by the heritage autonomy brain (seed §3.3: vision_pipeline.py 6-DoF PnP pose, drone_mpc_foundation.py MPC, rl_controller.py RL→ONNX, mavsdk_bridge.py). Just as outbound navigation is "look out the window and drive to the place you need to go until you see the thing you need and go to it" [16:01], the return is "look out the window and drive home until you see the recovery point, then fly into the cable."
5.1 The recovery point as a "target"
The recovery point/Skyhook boom is treated as a cooperative terminal target: a known scene with a known optical signature (boom geometry, fiducial pattern on the boom/cradle, the capture cable). The same detection→PnP-pose→guidance→control pipeline that prosecutes a hostile target re-purposes to fly the airframe onto the cable. This is a software re-use of the proven brain, not new hardware.
5.2 Terminal recovery guidance phases (GPS/RF-denied)
| Phase | Vision-nav task | Sensor(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Return transit | Vision-inertial map/scene matching back to the recovery area; star-tracker/horizon heading aid over feature-poor/over-water legs | wide-FOV global-shutter cams + IMU + (opt.) star tracker |
| Recovery-area acquisition | Detect the boom/fiducial; confirm it is the recovery point (reject decoys/wrong site) | EO/IR gimbal + wide-FOV cams |
| Terminal capture geometry | 6-DoF relative pose to the cable (range, bearing, closure, crosswind crab); MPC drives a stabilized engagement track at ~28 m/s [TBR] | PnP pose on boom/cable fiducials |
| Engagement / wave-off | Commit to capture, or execute a deterministic safe go-around if pose confidence, crosswind, or closure is out of bounds | onboard logic; no operator, no RF |
5.3 Why vision (not GPS) for recovery — and why it matters
A conventional RF/GPS-guided recovery cannot stand in a jammed or spoofed environment — exactly the environment WILDFIRE is built to fight in (and, in the EW profile, the environment WILDFIRE creates). Because recovery is vision-only:
- WILDFIRE can recover into its own jamming footprint (EW profile) — it navigates home and onto the cable with radios off.
- A spoofed GPS fix is irrelevant — the state estimator never consumes GPS (preferred architecture, 17_test §7), so it cannot be walked off the recovery point.
- The recovery point can be relocated covertly without an RF handshake — its optical signature is briefed pre-launch.
5.4 Radios-dark, bounded, and abort-safe (DDR-01/18)
The complete sortie — outbound, terminal effect, and return-to-recovery — completes with radios OFF (17_test §7 matrix: "Recovery rendezvous, radios OFF" ✔). Recovery decisions (engage/wave-off, alternate-point divert) are written to the tamper-evident autonomy log for post-mission audit and reuse health-check (DDR-18). The failure mode is conservative: loss of confidence → wave-off → re-attempt → divert to the alternate recovery point / parachute zone. The recovery failure mode is "go around and try again / land softly," never "destroy." This is the DDR-18 "dumb AI made boring" principle applied to recovery.
6. Turnaround Process — refuel + rearm + health-check ≤ 30 min (DDR-15)
A ≤30-min turnaround by a small team is what lets one airframe fly multiple sorties/day and accrue a ≥50-sortie life quickly. We adopt a pit-crew model with line-replaceable units (LRUs) and parallelized steps.
6.1 Pit-crew model (2–3 person team)
| Crew role | Owns | Parallelizable with |
|---|---|---|
| Crew chief / safety | Capture-to-cradle, safe/de-arm, go/no-go call, BIT review | — (gates start and end) |
| Fuel + powerplant tech | Hot-refuel (~45 kg / ~56 L), engine quick-look, divert-motor reset | rearm |
| Payload + munition tech | Munition reload/arm (only expended item), payload module check, seeker health pull | refuel |
6.2 Turnaround timeline (target ≤ 30 min)
First-order budget; steps overlap (DDR-15). [TBR by 17_test §10 turnaround demo.]
| Time | Step | Duration | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | Skyhook capture → lower to cradle; safe/de-arm | — | end of P7 flight; safety first |
| T+0 → +5 min | Post-sortie go/no-go: structural quick-look (defined inspection zones) + HUMS download review | ~5 min | visual/tap-test only, no per-sortie NDI |
| T+2 → +6 min | Hot-refuel ~45 kg JP-8 via single port (50–100 L/min bowser fills <2 min) | ~4 min | heavy fuel safe to hot-refuel (high flash point) |
| T+5 → +18 min | Rearm: load + arm fresh munition (only expended item); reset divert-motor tube; replace/repack chute if parachute mode | ~13 min | pacing item for armed strike sorties |
| T+10 → +20 min | Payload/seeker health pull + BIT/system check | parallel | vision-stack self-test, gimbal sweep |
| T+20 → +28 min | Re-mission load (radios-dark): waypoint corridor, target signature set, ROE/geofence, recovery point + alternate | ~8 min | no uplink required |
| T+28 → +30 min | Re-cradle to rail / fit RATO; re-launch | ~2 min | back into P0 |
| Total | Recovery → re-sortie | ≤ 30 min | parallelized; 2–3 person team |
ISR/EW/decoy sorties expend nothing (no munition) and skip the rearm pacing item, so their turnaround is shorter — typically refuel + health-check + re-mission bound, comfortably inside the budget. The 30-min figure is the armed-strike worst case.
6.3 Line-replaceable units (LRUs) — design-for-reuse-maintainability
Wear-prone or mission-gated items are field-replaceable so a single worn part is never a reason to retire a $127k airframe (DDR-05/17 producibility logic applied to reuse):
| LRU | Why replaceable | Reuse interval |
|---|---|---|
| Capture hook / wingtip capture fitting | Sees arrest load every sortie | inspect every sortie; replace on wear/cycle count |
| Modular propulsion pallet (engine+EFI+generator+exhaust) | Time/cycle-expired or damaged powerplant swaps without touching the airframe | at TBO / on HUMS flag |
| Munition + divert-motor grain | Consumables — reloaded each relevant sortie | per sortie (gated) |
| Battery buffer (~350 Wh) | Cells degrade with cycles | cycle-counted, depot refresh |
| EO/IR gimbal / payload module | Quick-swap on the common bay | mission-configurable |
| Ablative/reflective skin patches | Touch-up consumable (~$50/sortie) | as needed |
| Recovery chute / airbag (alt mode) | Repack/service consumable | per parachute recovery |
6.4 Verification handoff (DDR-19)
The ≤30-min turnaround is a gating, scored, live shoot-off demonstration (K12c) — the same airframe that just flew the denied-environment strike profile is recovered, turned, and re-flown with a stopwatch and timing officials (17_test §9.3, §10.2). Stretch goal: ≤15 min.
7. Reuse-Life Management — ≥ 50 Sorties [TBR]
This is the "I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe" [20:31] architecture made into a maintenance regime. Nothing comes home to be discarded except logged consumables.
7.1 Designed life — why ≥50 sorties is the floor, not a stretch
The DFM doctrine and the reuse mandate pull in the same direction (10_airframe §1): the robust, low-stress, generously-toleranced galvanized steel structure that satisfies "heavier planes… rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing" [10:57–11:06] also has a true fatigue endurance limit and shrugs off the bump-and-scuff of repeated Skyhook captures. Steel was chosen partly because aluminum is fatigue-notch-sensitive with no endurance limit — a liability for a reused airframe. So WILDFIRE does not trade DFM against reuse; one buys the other.
7.2 What is reused vs. consumed per sortie
| Category | Items | Per-sortie disposition |
|---|---|---|
| Reused (always come home) | Airframe/structure, EO/IR seeker, Thor-class compute, IMU/sensor suite, engine/powerplant pallet, comms, payload modules (ISR/EW/decoy) | recovered, inspected, re-flown |
| Consumed (logged) | Munition (only if a strike sortie), divert-motor grain (only if fired), RATO booster (only if used), fuel, chute repack (parachute mode only), ablative touch-up | replaced at turnaround |
7.3 Structural & engine health monitoring (HUMS)
A low-SWaP Health & Usage Monitoring System drives reuse qualification on data, not guesswork (DDR-18/19), tied to the autonomy log:
- Peak-strain witness gauges at the spar root + capture fitting (10_airframe §4.4) flag any over-threshold arrest or maneuver event.
- Cycle counter (launches, captures, divert events) per airframe serial.
- Engine-hour metering drives TBO accounting (11_propulsion: ≥250 h between overhaul; ≥50 sorties between depot touch).
- Battery-buffer cycle count for the scheduled cell-refresh interval.
- Every recovery event feeds the turnaround go/no-go (§6.2) and the cumulative fatigue ledger.
7.4 Inspection intervals
| Level | When | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Per-sortie (line) | Every turnaround | Visual/tap-test of defined zones (capture region, belly pad, engine firewall, spar caps, RATO lugs); HUMS download review; BIT. No per-sortie NDI — enabled by forgiving steel sections. |
| Periodic (field) | Every N sorties [TBR] / on HUMS flag | Deeper inspection of recovery hard-points, propulsion pallet quick-look, fastener/weld survey. |
| Depot | At engine TBO (~250 h) / mid-life / on HUMS exceedance | Powerplant overhaul or pallet swap, dye-penetrant on welds, ultrasonic on bonded joints, borescope on internal members; battery cell refresh. |
7.5 Retirement criteria
An airframe is retired or depot-inspected on data, not a hard sortie count:
- Cumulative fatigue cycles reach the certified life (≥50, target 100+) with the test scatter factor consumed (17_test §6.3 certifies 50 via ≥100 bench blocks at scatter ≥2).
- A witness-gauge over-threshold event (out-of-spec arrest/maneuver) → mandatory depot inspection before re-flight.
- Crack initiation found at a monitored location (rivet line, weld toe, hook hard-point, RATO lug) beyond the repairable limit.
- HUMS-flagged engine/structure exceedance not cleared by an LRU swap.
A worn capture hook is a cheap LRU swap, not a retirement trigger (§6.3). Retirement is reserved for the un-repairable primary structure — which is exactly the steel that was sized to outlast 50+ cycles.
7.6 Reuse multiplies the production surge (DDR-08/15)
Effective fleet sorties = units built × sorties-per-unit. At ≥50 sorties/airframe and ≤30-min turnaround, the ≥1,000/day production surge (DDR-08) delivers the effect of tens of thousands of expendable units per build-day. Reuse is the force-multiplier on top of mass production — and the logistics relief Palmer describes: "If I have a reusable system, I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use… not having the logistics of… get a semi truck full of missiles to the front line." [20:35–20:44].
8. Sortie-Cost Economics — the decisive lever (DDR-15/16)
8.1 The formula
cost-per-sortie ≈ (flyaway ÷ reuse-life) + (lifetime maintenance ÷ reuse-life) + fuel + munition
Consolidating the 16_manufacturing_dfm_cost §8.5 model (flyaway $127k; lifetime maint. reserve $25k; fuel ~30 kg JP-8 @ ~$1.0/kg ≈ $40; ablative touch-up ~$50; munition excluded — it is the one expended item, priced in 14_*):
| Term | At 50-sortie life | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Airframe flyaway amortization | $127,000 / 50 = $2,540 | build cost over life |
| Lifetime maintenance/refresh amort. | $25,000 / 50 = $500 | reserve over life |
| Fuel | ~$40 | ~30 kg JP-8 bulk |
| Ablative touch-up | ~$50 | per-sortie consumable |
| Airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie | ≈ $3,130 | on the ≤ ~$3k target [within rounding/TBR], + munition |
8.2 Reusable vs. expendable — the asymmetry Palmer names
An expendable competitor pays the whole airframe on every shot: - Expendable: ~$127k + fuel + munition per engagement. - WILDFIRE reusable: ~$3.1k airframe-amortized + ~$40 fuel + munition per engagement.
That is a ~40× reduction in the recurring (non-munition) cost of putting an effect on target. This is exactly the "total folly" [19:38] Palmer rejects: "we cannot build multi-million dollar missiles or even hundred thousand dollar missiles where we just throw away the engine and the seeker and the computer and the airframe and everything every single time we shoot down one target. You will never be able to build something cheap enough to make sense going up against small low-cost mass-produced drones." [19:46–20:05]. WILDFIRE imposes the same effect at a fraction of the recurring cost — the decisive economic asymmetry, and the foundation of the DDR-16 "impose cost on the enemy" logic.
8.3 Sensitivity to reuse-life (the single biggest lever)
| Reuse life (sorties) | Flyaway amort. | + Maint. amort. | Airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | $5,080 | $1,000 | ≈ $6,170 |
| 50 (baseline, DDR-15) | $2,540 | $500 | ≈ $3,130 |
| 100 | $1,270 | $250 | ≈ $1,650 |
| 200 (stretch) | $635 | $125 | ≈ $890 |
*Includes ~$40 fuel + ~$50 ablative touch-up; excludes mission-gated divert reload and the expended munition.
Reuse life is a larger cost-per-sortie lever than any flyaway saving. Doubling life 50→100 halves the dominant term. The cheapest path to a cheap engagement is to fly the airframe more times, not build it cheaper — which is why DDR-15 makes reuse-life (and this recovery system that enables it) a primary KPP. Recovery-system reliability and structural fatigue margin are therefore direct cost levers, not maintenance overhead.
8.4 Recovery GSE does NOT inflate cost-per-sortie
The launch/recovery system is reusable infrastructure shared across the fleet (like a runway or a Patriot launcher rail), not a per-airframe cost (16_manufacturing §8.7):
| Ground equipment | Indicative cost | Effective per-sortie share |
|---|---|---|
| RATO rail / pneumatic launcher | $150–400k [TBR] | negligible (<$50/launch) |
| Skyhook recovery boom + cable | $200–500k [TBR] | negligible |
| Parachute/airbag field kit (alt) | $5–15k [TBR] | low |
| Turnaround GSE (fuel cart, rearm kit, module-swap stand) | $50–150k [TBR] | negligible |
A modest set of launchers/booms services a large, frequently-reflown fleet → well under ~$100/launch+recovery at fielded utilization. Booking this as flyaway would wrongly obscure the reuse win.
9. Ground Support Equipment & Logistics Footprint (DDR-20)
The reusability mandate shrinks the logistics tail — that is half of Palmer's point. The deployed footprint per recovery point:
| GSE element | Role | Mobility / source |
|---|---|---|
| Pneumatic/rail launcher (or RATO kit) | Launch | Truck/trailer/ship-rail; commodity steel + pneumatics, allied-buildable (DDR-06/20) |
| Skyhook boom + cable carrier | Recovery | Single vehicle; co-located with launcher |
| Fuel bowser (50–100 L/min) | Hot-refuel | Standard JP-8/Jet-A field cart (common-fuel mandate) |
| Rearm kit + munition stocks | Rearm (consumables only) | Small — only the expended items travel, not whole airframes |
| Module-swap stand + LRU spares | Pit-crew maintainability | Capture hooks, propulsion pallets, battery packs, ablative patches |
| HUMS reader / mission loader (radios-dark) | Health review + re-mission | Ruggedized laptop-class; no network dependency |
Distributed/allied operation (DDR-20): because no airfield is required, recovery points are cheap, mobile, and many. The GSE is buildable and supportable by allied automotive/agricultural industry. The logistics tail carries fuel + munitions (consumables only) — not a "semi truck full of missiles" [20:37], and not whole replacement airframes. Survivability of the recovery node is an open item: a fixed recovery point must not become a targetable single node — mitigated by mobility, dispersion, multiple alternates, and the parachute/airbag fallback (§4.2). [TBR — §10.]
10. Open issues / [TBR]
- [TBR-18-1] Skyhook capture scaled to the ~108 kg recovery mass (175 kg MTOW; heritage systems recover ~22 kg class — ~5× beyond heritage, R-03). Capture-load, boom/cable sizing, and damage rate are the dominant risks; retire on the captive rig + ≥20 live captures (
17_test§5.2, K12b). - [TBR-18-2] Engagement speed (~28 m/s) and arrest give-back (~5 m → ~8 g) are first-order placeholders; confirm peak g on seeker/compute against shock allowables on the rig.
- [TBR-18-3] Rail exit speed (~35 m/s) and stroke (~9 m → ~7 g launch shock) per
10_airframe/11_propulsion; RATO Δv sizing. - [TBR-18-4] Reuse-life ≥50 sorties is a target; certified via bench fatigue to ≥100 blocks at scatter ≥2 (
17_test§6.3) + FTA accrual. Stretch 100+. - [TBR-18-5] Per-sortie/periodic/depot inspection intervals (N sorties) and exact retirement thresholds — finalize with
17_testfatigue data. - [TBR-18-6] Turnaround ≤30 min by 2–3 crew — confirm parallelized step durations and BIT coverage in the live demo (
17_test§10.2). Stretch ≤15 min. - [TBR-18-7] Recovery-node survivability (mobility/dispersion/alternates) so the recovery point is not a targetable single node (§9).
- [TBR-18-8] GSE indicative costs ($150–500k boom/launcher) and per-sortie amortized share (
16_manufacturing§8.7). - [TBR-18-9] Vision-cued recovery rendezvous in wind/glare/haze and decoy-recovery-point rejection — Monte-Carlo + flight test (
12_autonomy,17_test§7).
Budget contribution
- Mass: ~6.5 kg added to WILDFIRE MTOW (airframe-side recovery provisions only; this doc owns the recovery mechanism mass not already booked by
10_airframe's structural load-path mass). Breakdown: - Wingtip capture hook/fitting hardware (mechanism beyond the structural lug) — ~1.5 kg
- Recovery chute + belly airbag soft-goods + deploy mechanism (alt-mode, carried on every airframe) — ~3.5 kg [TBR]
- HUMS sensors (witness gauges, cycle counter, harness) — ~0.5 kg
- Recovery-point optical fiducial provisions / cradle interface — ~1.0 kg [TBR]
- (Structural capture lug, doublers, riser hardpoint, and torque-box reaction mass are owned by
10_airframe; launch-rail/RATO interface mass by10_airframe/11_propulsion— not double-counted here.) - Power (cruise / peak): ~2 W / ~15 W. HUMS sampling/logging is near-zero at cruise; peak is the recovery-sequence sensor/logging burst during terminal capture (vision-stack/EO-IR power is owned by
12_autonomy, not booked here). Chute/airbag deploy is pyro/cold-gas, not electrical bus load. - Unit cost (volume): ~$2,000 airframe-side (capture fitting hardware + chute/airbag kit + HUMS) — inside the
16_manufacturingflyaway model (consistent with §8.8 "parachute/airbag recovery interface" ≈ $2k airframe-side). Recovery/launch GROUND equipment is reusable shared infrastructure, NOT per-unit flyaway ($150–500k boom/launcher amortized over thousands of cycles → <$100/launch+recovery;16_manufacturing§8.7). - Reuse impact: This document is the reuse capability. It delivers the recovery + ≤30-min turnaround + ≥50-sortie life management that makes the airframe-amortized cost-per-sortie ≈ $3,130 (≤ ~$3k target) — a ~40× recurring-cost reduction vs. an expendable airframe (~$127k/shot). Reuse-life is the single largest cost-per-sortie lever (50→100 sorties halves the dominant term → ~$1,650/sortie). Recovery-system reliability and fatigue margin are therefore direct economic levers, not overhead. No one-way WILDFIRE (DDR-15).
- Assumptions / [TBR]: Recovery-mechanism masses/costs are first-order [TBR-18-1..2,8]; chute/airbag carried on every airframe (alt/contingency); Skyhook scaling to the ~108 kg recovery mass (175 kg MTOW) unverified [TBR-18-1]; turnaround/reuse-life are targets pending
17_test[TBR-18-4,6]; cost-per-sortie consolidates16_manufacturing§8.5 and excludes the expended munition by definition (DDR-15).
§ 17BACKFIRE — Reusable Kinetic Interceptor
VARIANT▾
BACKFIRE — Reusable Kinetic Interceptor
VARIANTDocument: 20_variant_backfire_interceptor.md
Platform: BACKFIRE / AGP-2 — reusable kinetic interceptor variant of the AGP family
Parent baseline: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3.2 (LOCKED)
Status: Concept design / engineering study. All numbers are design targets or first-order estimates; unverified physics-dependent items carry [TBR]; undefined items [TBD]. No validated test results are presented.
BACKFIRE is the blue-side answer to mass drone/cruise-missile attack: a small, very fast, recoverable interceptor that goes out, kills, and comes home to be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Palmer Luckey calls reusable kinetics "the final thing at the top of my pinnacle" [19:30–19:32]. This document specifies that variant in full, on the shared AGP autonomy core, manufacturing doctrine, and open network layer so that BACKFIRE is a manufacturing and software sibling of the hero WILDFIRE (AGP-1), not a clean-sheet program. The reusability KPP (DDR-15) is family-wide: WILDFIRE and BACKFIRE both come home — only the munition, if any, is expended. A one-way airframe is, in Palmer's words, "a total folly" [19:38].
1. Design Drivers Satisfied (traceability)
This document is the primary owner of DDR-15 and DDR-14, and inherits the family-wide drivers through commonality with WILDFIRE.
| DDR | Verbatim driver (Palmer Luckey) | How BACKFIRE satisfies it |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-15 | [19:30–19:39] "the final thing at the top of my pinnacle, kinetics need to be reusable. We need to get away from this idea that we throw away every interceptor every single time. It'll never work. It's a total folly." … [20:06–20:29] "scaling down the fighter interceptor model to interceptors that are very very fast, but … maybe turbine powered, maybe rocket powered … go out there, destroy things using explosives or just be a pure pure pure kinetic energy, and then they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused." … [20:29–20:32] "I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." | Reusable airframe + turbine engines + seeker + compute recovered every sortie. Cost-per-engagement = fuel (+ optional consumable warhead). Selectable kill: proximity frag or fully reusable hit-to-kill. Recover → refuel → rearm → reuse cycle (§6). Reuse life ≥ 50 sorties [TBR]; turnaround (refuel+rearm) ≤ 30 min, small team — same KPP thresholds as the WILDFIRE family baseline (§3.1). |
| DDR-14 | [17:04–17:08] "Every sensor needs to be a sensor for every effector and vice versa." … [17:22–17:36] "everything must be networked … passing off tracks seamlessly without a human having to hand those over manually. It needs to be a common data format … no manufacturers are allowed to stovepipe their stuff … open interoperable standards." | BACKFIRE is a shooter on the open sensor-to-shooter mesh: ingests cued tracks in the common format from any sensor (radar, EO/IR, acoustic, WILDFIRE swarm), and publishes its own track/status back. No proprietary stovepipe (§8). |
| DDR-16 | [21:55–22:01] "valuing mass producibility in a very serious way." | BACKFIRE shares WILDFIRE's automotive/ag bill-of-process. The reusable airframe relaxes the per-shot cost pressure but the launch/recovery infrastructure and the consumable warheads must still be mass-producible so a battery can be stood up and sustained at scale. |
| DDR-02 / DDR-04 | [16:01] vision nav, "navigate not off of GPS or any other radio." / [15:54] "completely resistant to all jamming systems … also things like navigation." | Shared vision-nav core handles midcourse/RTB with GPS/RF optional; jam-proof recovery is mandatory for reuse (§7). |
| DDR-01 | [14:36] onboard autonomy does "basically everything." | Full intercept executable with datalink jammed; mesh cue is opportunistic, autonomy is mandatory (§7, §8). |
| DDR-03 | [14:53] "$300 chip … not the thing … driving that price." | Same best-in-class edge-AI compute as WILDFIRE (Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS) — the AIGP autonomy stack is heritage/proof, NOT a hardware ceiling; recovered every shot, so compute cost is doubly a rounding error (§9, §10). |
| DDR-11 | [18:39] solid rocket boosters that "shove you out of the way." | Same divert-motor technology repurposed as the rocket-boost dash option and as terminal endgame agility (§4, §5). |
| DDR-17 | [36:54] "not building the Batmobile … focus on things that … can actually get funded and actually get deployed." | Configuration deliberately reuses WILDFIRE parts, COTS micro-turbines, and a commodity recovery method. No exquisite supersonic airframe, no exotic seeker. Producibility/cost beat peak Mach (§3, §11). |
| DDR-18 | [33:01] "more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people." | Human-on-the-loop lethal release, geofence, deterministic abort and safe-RTB — inherited from the shared autonomy core (§7.4). |
| DDR-19 | [21:40] "compete … at a shoot-off." | Designed to a demonstrable, instrumented live-fire engagement and turnaround metric (§12). |
| DDR-20 | [23:24] "a bunch of Japanese automotive workers." | Allied second-source via shared AGP supply chain (§11). |
Governing rule — Don't build the Batmobile [36:54]. The temptation in an interceptor program is to chase peak Mach, an exquisite RF seeker, and a clean-sheet supersonic airframe. BACKFIRE explicitly does not: it scales down the fighter-interceptor model into a producible, reusable, mostly-WILDFIRE vehicle. Every feature below traces to a DDR and a named mission in CONOPS.
2. Why reusable — the central economic thesis (DDR-15)
The defining problem of modern air defense is the cost-exchange ratio: a $1k–$5k attack drone is intercepted by a $0.1M–$4M missile that is destroyed in the act. Against a salvo of hundreds-to-thousands of simultaneous attacks, the defender's magazine and budget empty first. Palmer states the failure mode plainly:
[19:46–20:04] "we cannot build multi-million dollar missiles or even hundred thousand dollar missiles where we just throw away the engine and the seeker and the computer and the airframe and everything every single time we shoot down one target. You will never be able to build something cheap enough to make sense going up against small low-cost mass-produced drones."
The logistics tail is the other half of the trap:
[20:29–20:44] "I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe. I'm not getting having the logistics of oh, I just burned up my whole Patriot battery. I have to somehow get a semi truck full of missiles to the front line. If I have a reusable system, I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use."
BACKFIRE's thesis: make the expensive parts — airframe, twin turbines, seeker, edge-AI compute — recoverable, so the marginal cost per engagement collapses to fuel plus an optional consumable warhead. The capital cost of the vehicle is amortized over its service life of dozens-to-hundreds of sorties rather than charged in full to a single kill.
2.1 Reusable vs expendable cost-per-engagement (first-order)
| Expendable interceptor (reference class) | BACKFIRE reusable (this design) | |
|---|---|---|
| Airframe charged per shot | Full unit cost | Amortized: unit cost ÷ service-life sorties |
| Engine charged per shot | Full | $0 (recovered) |
| Seeker + compute per shot | Full | $0 (recovered) |
| Consumed per shot | Whole missile | Fuel (~3.9 kg) + optional warhead |
| Cost per kill (reference) | Coyote Blk2 ~\$125k; AIM-9X ~\$450k; Patriot ~\$4M | HTK mode ≈ \$0.8k; prox-frag mode ≈ \$4.3k (§10) |
Reference expendable costs are public order-of-magnitude figures used for trade comparison only; not vendor quotes. [TBR by program cost office.]
The per-engagement numbers are derived in §10. Even the consumable-warhead mode is >4× cheaper than the cheapest reference expendable, and the hit-to-kill mode is ~150× cheaper than a Coyote-class shot. This is the entire point of DDR-15: BACKFIRE wins the magazine-depth and the cost-exchange war simultaneously.
2.2 The honest cost of reuse
Reuse is not free. BACKFIRE pays for it in: - Recovery infrastructure (rail launcher + recovery net/parachute zone or VTOL pad) — amortized across the battery, not the shot. - Turnaround labor and inspection between sorties. - Attrition — some interceptors are lost to terminal fratricide, hard landings, or enemy action. Service life is therefore a statistical number, not a guarantee (§10.2).
These are real, but they are per-battery and per-cycle costs, not per-shot magazine costs, and they do not require a "semi truck full of missiles to the front line" [20:34]. That is the logistics win.
3. Configuration selection (DDR-15, DDR-17)
The baseline (§3.2) permits two propulsion architectures: (A) twin micro-turbojet or (B) single turbojet + rocket boost; and two recovery methods: VTOL or rail-launch + parachute/skid. We trade them against the Don't-Build-the-Batmobile rule.
3.1 Propulsion architecture trade
| Criterion (weight) | A: Twin micro-turbojet | B: Single turbojet + solid rocket boost |
|---|---|---|
| Dash speed / accel | Good sustained M0.85; smooth | Excellent burst to dash; sustainer then cruises |
| Reusability of full propulsion | All propulsion recovered | Turbine recovered, booster expended (small consumable cost & re-stow step) |
| Engine-out safety for recovery (×10) | Redundant — one engine returns the vehicle | Single point of failure for RTB |
| Producibility (DDR-16) | 2× COTS micro-turbines (commodity) | 1 turbine + solid motor (energetics handling, storage) |
| Logistics / handling | Jet fuel only | Jet fuel + solid motor inventory (re-introduces a consumable to truck forward) |
| Cost per airframe | Higher (two engines) | Lower engine count, but recurring booster cost |
Decision — Architecture A (twin micro-turbojet) is the baseline. The deciding factor is engine-out recovery: reuse is the whole program, and a single-engine failure on a single-engine vehicle means a lost airframe — the exact outcome DDR-15 exists to prevent. Twin turbines also keep the consumable to fuel only, preserving the "I'm only using up whatever fuel" promise [20:36]. Architecture B is retained as a dash-performance option: a jettisonable solid booster (shared with WILDFIRE's divert-motor production, DDR-11) can be clipped on for high-altitude/high-closure intercepts where extra zoom energy is needed. The booster is the only part not recovered in that mode, and its cost is added to the per-engagement model (§10).
First-order check (twin): 2 × 55-lbf-class COTS micro-turbojets = 110 lbf ≈ 489 N static thrust. At an MTOW target of 55 kg (weight ≈ 540 N), static T/W ≈ 0.91; with ~0.55 thrust lapse at dash/altitude, dash T/W ≈ 0.50 against an estimated ~0.35 needed to hold M0.85 in a lean low-L/D body — margin positive. [TBR by propulsion + drag analysis.]
3.2 Recovery method trade
| Criterion (weight) | Rail-launch + parachute/airbag recovery | VTOL (lift fans / vectored) recovery |
|---|---|---|
| Mass/complexity penalty (×10) | Low — chute + airbag, no extra propulsion | High — lift system carried dead-weight in cruise |
| Producibility (DDR-16) | Commodity textiles + pyro + airbag | Bespoke lift propulsion, control complexity |
| Site flexibility | Needs a recovery zone (net/soft ground) | Point recovery to a pad |
| Turnaround (refuel/rearm) | Repack chute = labor step | Fast pad turnaround |
| Reuse risk | Hard-landing damage [TBR] | Lift-system reliability |
| Effect on dash performance | None — clean dash body | Drag/weight of lift system degrades the "very very fast" KPP |
Decision — Rail-launch + parachute/airbag recovery is the baseline; VTOL is rejected for the hero variant. VTOL violates Don't-Build-the-Batmobile: carrying a lift system you use for ~30 s of a sortie is dead weight against the "very very fast" requirement [20:39] and adds bespoke, non-commodity propulsion. Rail launch is shared with WILDFIRE's pneumatic/RATO launcher, and parachute-plus-airbag recovery is commodity and reuses WILDFIRE's ISR-variant recovery doctrine. A VTOL recovery kit is held as a future option only for ship/urban sites with no recovery zone [TBD].
First-order check (recovery): for a 55 kg vehicle descending under canopy at a survivable 6 m/s (with airbag absorbing touchdown), required canopy area ≈ 18.2 m² (~4.8 m diameter) at Cd≈1.5, ρ≈1.1 kg/m³. A clustered/ringsail canopy of this class is commodity. [TBR by drop-test.]
3.3 Baseline configuration summary
| Item | Baseline | Δ vs §3.2 LOCKED | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Propulsion | Twin 55-lbf-class micro-turbojet | within "twin micro-turbojet (or single + rocket boost)" | rocket-boost retained as option |
| MTOW | 55 kg target | (new — §3.2 left BACKFIRE mass [TBD]) | smaller/leaner than WILDFIRE 175 kg by design |
| Control | tail + canard (pitch/yaw/roll authority for endgame) | as §3.2 | high-g terminal agility |
| Launch | rail (shared WILDFIRE launcher) | as §3.2 | runway-independent |
| Recovery | parachute + airbag / skid; net option | within §3.2 | VTOL deferred |
| Top speed | M0.85 cruise-dash; rocket-boost option to low supersonic burst | as §3.2 | "very very fast" [20:39] |
| Intercept envelope | ~15–20 km range, to ~6 km altitude | as §3.2 | design point 18 km (§5) [TBR] |
| Kill mechanism | selectable: proximity continuous-rod/frag (replaceable) or reusable hit-to-kill | as §3.2 | §5 |
4. Vehicle description
BACKFIRE is a small, lean, twin-jet missile-shaped vehicle — deliberately the least exotic airframe that can do the job (DDR-17).
- Fuselage: slender high-fineness steel/composite body sharing WILDFIRE's stamped/rolled steel + glass/basalt composite bill-of-process. Modular nose bay (seeker + warhead or kinetic penetrator). Mid-body fuel and twin-engine bay. Aft control section.
- Wing/control: short cropped-delta or strake wing for transonic efficiency at low cost; canard + tail surfaces give the pitch/yaw authority needed for terminal high-g endgame and for trimmed recovery descent. Surfaces are press-braked sheet over commodity actuators (shared servo/actuator family with WILDFIRE).
- Twin micro-turbojets: two COTS 55-lbf-class units, side-by-side or over/under in the aft bay, common Jet-A/JP-8 (family common-fuel mandate). FADEC-class digital control. Engine-out logic returns the vehicle on one engine.
- Recovery pack: tail-stowed cluster parachute + body airbags (or belly skid). Pyro deploy. Repackable between sorties.
- Optional rocket-boost mount (Architecture B): hardpoint for a jettisonable solid booster (shared production with the WILDFIRE divert/dodge motor, DDR-11) for zoom-climb dash intercepts.
- Avionics bay: Faraday-shielded, sharing WILDFIRE's HPM/EMP-hardened enclosure doctrine (the interceptor itself flies into the same laser/HPM-rich battlespace).
4.1 Mass breakdown (first-order, MTOW 55 kg target)
| Group | Mass (kg) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Structure (airframe + surfaces) | 18.0 | DFM steel+composite, scaled from WILDFIRE empty fraction |
| Twin micro-turbojets (2×) | 7.0 | ~3.5 kg each, COTS 55-lbf class [TBR] |
| Fuel (usable, per sortie) | 6.0 | ~3.9 kg burned + reserve (§10) |
| Avionics + compute (shared core) | 3.5 | Faraday bay, edge-AI module, IMUs, cameras |
| Seeker (IR + optional RF) | 3.0 | shared vision core + terminal seeker |
| Actuation (canard/tail/servos) | 2.5 | commodity servos |
| Recovery pack (chute + airbag + pyro) | 4.0 | sized §3.2 |
| Reusable subtotal (returns home) | ~44 | |
| Payload bay — selectable | ||
| · Hit-to-kill kinetic insert (reusable) | 0 (net) | penetrator integral to nose; no consumable |
| · Proximity continuous-rod/frag warhead (consumable) | 8–11 | replaced each sortie if used |
| MTOW (HTK / prox-frag) | ~44–55 | within §3.2 envelope; flagged below |
Deviation note: §3.2 left BACKFIRE MTOW undefined; we set a 55 kg target (prox-frag, full fuel). HTK mode returns at ~44 kg (no warhead consumed). This is well below WILDFIRE's 175 kg MTOW (Rev B §3.1) and inside the intent of a "scaled-down fighter-interceptor" [20:07]. Mass rollup [TBR by Integration].
5. Kill mechanism — selectable (DDR-15)
Palmer explicitly allows either approach: "destroy things using explosives or just be a pure pure pure kinetic energy" [20:23–20:25]. BACKFIRE supports both as a field-selectable nose module, chosen per threat:
| Mode | Mechanism | Consumable? | Best against | Cost driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit-to-kill (HTK) | Closure + terminal homing to body-on-body or with a small reusable kinetic insert; no warhead | No — fully reusable | Single small drones, where guidance precision is achievable | Fuel only |
| Proximity frag | Continuous-rod / fragmenting warhead with proximity fuze; lethal radius covers guidance miss-distance | Yes — warhead replaced each sortie | Faster/maneuvering cruise-missile-class, salvos, where a few-meter miss is likely | Fuel + warhead |
Endgame agility: terminal miss-distance is closed by canard/tail high-g maneuvering, and — in the rocket-boost configuration — the same solid-motor divert technology from WILDFIRE (DDR-11) can be repurposed as a terminal kinetic "pounce" to null late line-of-sight error. This is the producibility win: BACKFIRE's hardest-to-build energetic component is the same part WILDFIRE already produces for its own survivability divert.
First-order intercept kinematics (design point 18 km): at an average flyout speed of ~230 m/s (accelerating off the rail toward M0.85), time-to-reach 18 km ≈ 78 s, inside a nominal ~90 s engagement window against a subsonic inbound. For closing geometries (target inbound) the effective reach is larger. Envelope to ~6 km altitude is consistent with twin-turbojet ceiling. [TBR by 6-DoF fly-out simulation.]
6. Recover → refuel → rearm → reuse cycle (DDR-15)
This cycle is BACKFIRE's reason to exist and is engineered as a battery-level turnaround process, mirroring an automotive pit-stop rather than a missile-magazine reload.
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ BACKFIRE BATTERY │
│ open-mesh track cue (DDR-14) │
│ │ │
LAUNCH ─┤ 1. RAIL LAUNCH ──► 2. CLIMB/DASH (twin jet) │
│ │ │
│ 3. INTERCEPT (HTK or prox-frag) │
│ │ │
│ 4. SAFE / RTB ◄─── autonomy + vision-nav (GPS/RF opt) │
│ │ │
│ 5. PARACHUTE/AIRBAG RECOVERY to zone │
│ │ │
PIT ───┤ 6. INSPECT ──► 7. REFUEL (Jet-A) ──► 8. REPACK CHUTE │
│ │ │
│ 9. REARM (swap warhead nose IF prox-frag was used; │
│ HTK needs no rearm) │
│ │ │
│ 10. RE-FLY ───────────────────────────────────────► │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
| Step | Action | What is consumed | What is recovered (reused) | Turnaround driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | Launch, fly out, kill | Fuel; warhead (if prox-frag) | airframe, turbines, seeker, compute | — |
| 4–5 | Autonomous RTB + recovery | — | whole vehicle | Jam-proof nav (DDR-04) is mandatory: a recovery that depends on GPS can be denied, breaking reuse |
| 6 | Inspect (visual + onboard BIT/health-monitoring) | — | log a sortie against reuse life | Reuse-limiting: damage = depot, not re-fly; health record qualifies the tail for its next sortie (≥ 50 sortie life [TBR]) |
| 7 | Refuel | Jet-A only | tanks topped | Minutes |
| 8 | Repack/replace chute | (reusable canopy, expendable pyro cartridge) | canopy reused | Labor + cartridge |
| 9 | Rearm | Warhead nose only if prox-frag used; HTK = no rearm | HTK penetrator integral, nothing to replace | The HTK mode has zero rearm step |
| 10 | Re-fly | — | same airframe back in the fight | Target sortie turnaround [TBR]: ≤ ~30 min for refuel/repack/(re)arm/relaunch — the same family turnaround KPP as WILDFIRE (§3.1) |
The HTK mode is the purest expression of DDR-15: after a kill, the vehicle lands, is refueled, has its chute repacked, and re-flies — no warhead truck, no magazine, no "semi truck full of missiles" [20:37]. In HTK mode the only item consumed across the entire engagement is fuel (single-digit dollars, §10), with an expendable chute pyro cartridge per recovery — literally Palmer's "I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use" [20:42]. Prox-frag mode adds exactly one consumable: a snap-in warhead nose module (§5, §9), preserving the rest of the vehicle for reuse.
Reuse-life accounting (DDR-15): every recovery logs airframe/engine cycles, hard-landing g, and BIT faults to the health record. A tail re-flies only while inside its qualified envelope; otherwise it goes to depot (a per-cycle, per-battery event — not a per-shot magazine cost, §2.2). Service life is therefore a fleet-statistical figure (§10.2), and the turnaround team is sized like an automotive pit crew, not a missile-reload detail.
7. Autonomy, navigation, and seeker (shared core; DDR-01/02/04/18)
BACKFIRE runs the same autonomy core as WILDFIRE — this is the commonality keystone, not a re-implementation. The AIGP-competition flight stack (vision-only nav, no GPS/LiDAR, MAVLink) is the proven heritage brain the vehicle is wrapped around; it is not a hardware ceiling. Per Rev B, the production interceptor runs that heritage software on best-in-class compute (Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS), best-in-class cameras and seekers — unconstrained by AIGP competition specs (DDR-03).
7.1 Shared autonomy stack
Inherited verbatim from the family core (00_seed_design_brief.md §3.3):
- vision_pipeline.py — wide-FOV global-shutter camera perception, object detection + PnP 6-DoF pose. Used here for midcourse scene/visual navigation and terminal optical target acquisition ("look out the window… drive to the place you need to go until you see the thing you need and go to it" [16:06–16:12]).
- drone_mpc_foundation.py — model-predictive control, retuned for BACKFIRE's higher-speed, canard/tail airframe and for high-g terminal maneuvers.
- rl_controller.py — RL policy → ONNX, for agile endgame guidance.
- mavsdk_bridge.py — MAVLink interface to the flight controller and FADEC.
7.2 Navigation (DDR-02/04)
Midcourse and RTB use vision + inertial, GPS/RF optional. This is non-negotiable for an interceptor because the recovery leg must survive jamming: a reusable interceptor that cannot find its way home in a GPS/RF-denied environment is not reusable. Same sensor suite as WILDFIRE — wide-FOV global-shutter cameras, voted dual MEMS IMU, baro, optical flow.
7.3 Terminal seeker
- Passive IR primary terminal seeker (jet/prop drones present thermal signature; passive = no emission to jam or home on).
- Optional active RF terminal seeker module for low-IR-contrast or weather-obscured targets.
- Vision terminal homing as the all-passive, EW-proof fallback. The seeker is recovered with the vehicle — it is not thrown away per DDR-15.
7.4 Bounded autonomy (DDR-18)
[33:01] "I'm so much more worried about dumb AI in the hands of evil people than … hostile AI."
BACKFIRE inherits the family's positive-control regime: human-on-the-loop authorization for lethal release, geofenced engagement volume, ROE constraints, deterministic abort, and — critically for a reusable vehicle — a deterministic safe-RTB / safe-ditch behavior so an interceptor that loses the track does not become an uncontrolled hazard. Abort = disarm + recover, not detonate.
8. Open sensor-to-shooter network role (DDR-14)
BACKFIRE is designed first as a node on the open mesh, second as a missile. Palmer's requirement is unambiguous:
[17:04–17:08] "Every sensor needs to be a sensor for every effector and vice versa." [17:32–17:38] "no manufacturers are allowed to stovepipe their stuff into their specific system. It has to be open interoperable standards."
| Network function | BACKFIRE behavior |
|---|---|
| Track ingest | Accepts cued tracks in the common data format from any sensor on the mesh — ground/ship radar, EO/IR towers, acoustic arrays, and WILDFIRE itself acting as a forward sensor ("every sensor is a sensor for every effector"). |
| Track publish | Publishes its own seeker track, kinematic state, fuel/weapon status, and engagement result back to the mesh, so the next shooter (or BACKFIRE) is cued without manual handoff [17:24]. |
| No stovepipe | Uses the family open-standard SDR mesh and common track schema (owned by 15_comms_networking_c2.md). No proprietary, BACKFIRE-only link. |
| Datalink-optional | Per DDR-01, the engagement completes with the mesh jammed; the network makes BACKFIRE better (earlier cue, cooperative salvo deconfliction) but is never on the critical path for a single kill. |
This network role is also how BACKFIRE scales against the threat Palmer names — "hundreds or thousands of simultaneous attacks" [17:18]: a battery of reusable interceptors, cued and deconflicted over the open mesh, is the only architecture whose magazine and cost do not collapse under mass attack.
9. Commonality with WILDFIRE (the program multiplier)
BACKFIRE is intentionally ~70%+ common with WILDFIRE so that the same factory, software, and supply chain produce both sides of the drone fight. This is the direct answer to DDR-05/06/16: you cannot stand up a second exquisite program and still meet "a thousand a day" [11:32].
| Domain | Shared with WILDFIRE | BACKFIRE-unique |
|---|---|---|
| Autonomy core | Entire vision→pose→guidance→control stack (vision_pipeline, drone_mpc_foundation, rl_controller, mavsdk_bridge) |
Retuned MPC/RL gains for high-speed canard/tail airframe; terminal-intercept guidance mode |
| Compute | Same best-in-class edge-AI module (Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS), same Faraday-shielded bay (DDR-03/10) — NOT limited to AIGP competition hardware | — (recovered every shot) |
| Nav sensors | Same wide-FOV global-shutter camera/IMU/baro/optical-flow suite (DDR-02/04) | + terminal IR/RF seeker |
| Manufacturing doctrine | Stamped/rolled steel + glass/basalt composite, rivets + robotic MIG welds + structural adhesive, single-stage press radii, <1-week line training (DDR-06/07) | Higher-fineness body; transonic surfaces |
| Propulsion family | Micro-turbojet (WILDFIRE turbine dash variant uses the same engine class) | Twin-engine integration; FADEC engine-out logic |
| Energetics | WILDFIRE divert/dodge solid motor (DDR-11) = BACKFIRE's rocket-boost / terminal-pounce motor | — |
| Launch | Pneumatic/rail (RATO) launcher | — |
| Recovery | Parachute/airbag/skid (WILDFIRE ISR variant) | Repack-for-reuse process |
| Network | Open-standard SDR mesh + common track format (DDR-14) | Shooter-node behavior |
| Survivability | Faraday/EMP hardening, anti-laser skin doctrine (DDR-09/10) | Carried because BACKFIRE flies into the same laser/HPM battlespace |
Implication: a Ford/GM/Caterpillar-class line trained for WILDFIRE (DDR-06) can produce BACKFIRE airframes with the same primitives and the same week of training — the body shape changes, the bill-of-process does not.
10. Cost-per-engagement model (DDR-15)
10.1 Marginal cost per shot (first-order)
Assumptions (all [TBR by program cost office]): - Twin 55-lbf turbojets, micro-turbine TSFC ≈ 1.3 lb/(lbf·hr). - 8-minute sortie, average ~45% of static thrust over the profile (full-thrust dash + reduced-thrust cruise/RTB). - Jet-A ≈ \$6.5/gal, ≈ 3.0 kg/gal. - Airframe reusable unit cost ≈ \$38k (§11); service life ≈ 50 sorties (conservative, §10.2). - Optional prox-frag warhead consumable ≈ \$3.5k; expendable chute pyro cartridge ≈ \$0.15k.
| Per-engagement line item | HTK mode | Prox-frag mode |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel (~3.9 kg ≈ 1.3 gal) | \$8 | \$8 |
| Chute pyro cartridge (per repack) | \$150 | \$150 |
| Airframe amortization (\$38k ÷ 50) | \$760 | \$760 |
| Warhead (consumable) | \$0 | \$3,500 |
| Cost per engagement | ≈ \$0.9k | ≈ \$4.4k |
Both are ≪ \$20k (the §3.2 LOCKED per-shot target) and dramatically below any expendable reference (§2.1). The fuel cost — Palmer's "I'm only using up whatever fuel" [20:36] — is literally single-digit dollars; the dominant cost in HTK mode is airframe amortization, which improves with service life.
10.2 Sensitivity — the amortization lever
| Service life (sorties) | Airframe amort / shot | HTK cost / engagement |
|---|---|---|
| 20 (pessimistic, high attrition) | \$1,900 | ≈ \$2.1k |
| 50 (baseline) | \$760 | ≈ \$0.9k |
| 100 (mature, low attrition) | \$380 | ≈ \$0.5k |
Even at a pessimistic 20-sortie life, HTK cost-per-kill (~\$2.1k) beats the cheapest reference expendable by ~60×. The reusable thesis is robust to attrition: the program does not need every airframe to fly 100 missions to win the cost-exchange war.
If a vehicle is lost (terminal fratricide, hard landing, enemy fire), that single event charges its remaining un-amortized value — captured statistically in the service-life figure. Reuse is a fleet-average economic claim, not a per-tail guarantee (§2.2).
11. Producibility & cost of the airframe (DDR-16/06/07/20)
The reusable nature relaxes per-shot cost pressure but does not exempt BACKFIRE from the manufacturing mandate — a battery still needs many airframes, plus a steady supply of consumable warheads and chute cartridges, all producible at scale.
- Bill-of-process: identical primitives to WILDFIRE (DDR-06/07) — stamped/rolled/press-braked steel, glass/basalt composite, rivets + robotic MIG welds + structural adhesive, single-stage press radii, generous tolerances. Line-training ≤ 1 week (DDR-06).
- COTS engines: two commodity micro-turbojets per airframe; this is the largest single cost and supply-chain risk [TBR] — engine second-sourcing and allied production (DDR-20, Japanese automotive/turbine workers [23:24]) is a program requirement.
- Consumables that must mass-produce: prox-frag warhead nose modules and chute pyro cartridges. These are the items that do get consumed, so DDR-16 applies to them with full force.
- Indicative reusable unit flyaway target: ≈ \$38k (below WILDFIRE's ≤\$150k flyaway target (Rev B §3.1) because BACKFIRE carries no large 25 kg modular payload bay and no one-way strike warhead by default; cost is dominated by the two turbines + seeker). Like WILDFIRE, BACKFIRE's edge-AI compute is a rounding error against the airframe (DDR-03) and is recovered every sortie. [TBR by
16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.mdand30_bill_of_materials.md.]
11.1 Indicative unit-cost breakdown (volume, reusable airframe)
| Group | Unit cost (USD) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Twin micro-turbojets (2×) | \$16,000 | dominant; COTS, second-source needed (DDR-20) |
| Structure + surfaces | \$6,000 | DFM steel+composite |
| Seeker (IR + optional RF) | \$5,000 | shared core + terminal module |
| Compute + avionics (shared) | \$3,000 | best-in-class Thor-class edge-AI module a rounding error (DDR-03); recovered every shot |
| Actuation + FADEC + wiring | \$4,000 | commodity servos, FADEC |
| Recovery system (chute/airbag, reusable canopy) | \$4,000 | repackable |
| Reusable airframe flyaway (volume) | ≈ \$38,000 | amortized over service life (§10) |
| Consumable per prox-frag shot | \$3,500 | not part of airframe; charged per engagement |
12. Test, verification & shoot-off readiness (DDR-19)
[21:40] open competitions where companies "compete … at a shoot-off, and the best one or two companies win."
BACKFIRE must demonstrate, instrumented and live, the metrics that make the reusable claim real:
1. Live intercept of a representative target-drone in HTK and prox-frag modes (Pk [TBR]).
2. Autonomous GPS/RF-denied RTB and successful recovery (proves DDR-02/04 reuse precondition).
3. Turnaround demonstration: recover → inspect → refuel → repack → rearm → re-fly the same airframe within the target window (proves DDR-15). This is the headline shoot-off metric no expendable competitor can show.
4. Mesh interop: ingest a cued track from a third-party sensor in the common format and publish result (proves DDR-14, no stovepipe).
Detailed plan owned by 17_test_verification_validation.md.
13. Open issues / [TBR] / [TBD]
| ID | Item | Owner / resolution |
|---|---|---|
| TBR-BF-01 | MTOW 55 kg target and mass rollup (§4.1) | Integration mass rollup |
| TBR-BF-02 | Twin-turbojet thrust/lapse, M0.85 dash sustainability, ceiling to 6 km (§3.1, §5) | Propulsion + drag analysis |
| TBR-BF-03 | Intercept envelope 15–20 km / flyout time / Pk (§5) | 6-DoF fly-out simulation |
| TBR-BF-04 | Parachute/airbag recovery loads; hard-landing damage vs reuse (§3.2, §6) | Drop-test campaign |
| TBR-BF-05 | Service life (sorties between depot/attrition) — drives amortization (§10.2) | Fleet reliability + live test |
| TBR-BF-06 | Turnaround time < ~30 min target (§6) | Turnaround demonstration |
| TBR-BF-07 | Micro-turbojet unit cost & allied second-source (§11, DDR-20) | Mfg/BOM + supply-chain |
| TBR-BF-08 | Prox-frag warhead lethal radius vs guidance miss-distance (§5) | Lethality analysis |
| TBD-BF-09 | VTOL recovery kit for ship/urban no-recovery-zone sites (§3.2) | Future option study |
| TBD-BF-10 | Rocket-boost (Architecture B) integration & booster cost charge (§3.1, §10) | Trade if dash envelope demands |
Budget contribution
BACKFIRE (AGP-2) is a separate variant airframe, not a payload carried on WILDFIRE (AGP-1), so it contributes 0 kg to WILDFIRE's 175 kg Rev B MTOW and 0 W to WILDFIRE's electrical budget. Its own figures are reported here for the AGP-2 rollup against the family reusability and cost targets.
- Mass (contribution to WILDFIRE MTOW): 0 kg (separate airframe). BACKFIRE's own MTOW ≈ 55 kg (prox-frag, full fuel) / ≈ 44 kg (HTK, recovered): structure 18, twin turbines 7, fuel 6, avionics/compute 3.5, seeker 3, actuation 2.5, recovery 4 → reusable subtotal that returns home ≈ 44 kg; + consumable prox-frag warhead 8–11 kg only in prox-frag mode. [TBR-BF-01]
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 W / 0 W to WILDFIRE budget (separate airframe). BACKFIRE onboard electrical (own budget): ~300 W cruise / ~700 W peak (Thor-class compute + seeker + actuation during terminal high-g maneuver), engine-driven generator + battery. [TBR]
- Unit cost (contribution to WILDFIRE flyaway): 0 USD (separate variant; WILDFIRE flyaway target ≤ \$150k, Rev B §3.1). BACKFIRE's own reusable airframe flyaway ≈ \$38k (volume) — turbines \$16k, structure \$6k, seeker \$5k, actuation/FADEC \$4k, recovery \$4k, compute/avionics \$3k. Cost per engagement ≈ \$0.9k (HTK) / ≈ \$4.4k (prox-frag) — both ≪ the \$20k per-shot LOCKED target (§3.2). In HTK mode the only per-shot consumable is fuel (≈ \$8) + chute pyro cartridge (≈ \$0.15k); the dominant per-engagement cost is airframe amortization, which falls with service life. [TBR-BF-05/07]
- Reuse impact: BACKFIRE is the most reuse-leveraged member of the family — the entire vehicle (airframe + twin turbines + seeker + Thor-class compute) is recovered every sortie; only the optional warhead is expended (DDR-15). HTK mode = zero rearm step, fully reusable, no magazine/no "semi truck full of missiles" [20:37]. Reuse-life target ≥ 50 sorties [TBR-BF-05] (the amortization lever, §10.2: 20→50→100 sorties drives HTK cost-per-kill \$2.1k→\$0.9k→\$0.5k); turnaround (refuel + repack + optional rearm) ≤ ~30 min by a small pit-crew team [TBR-BF-06], matching the WILDFIRE family turnaround KPP. Engine-out twin-turbine architecture (§3.1) and jam-proof vision-nav RTB (§7.2) are the two design choices that protect reuse; both are reflected in the mass/cost figures above.
- Assumptions / [TBR]: TSFC 1.3 lb/(lbf·hr); 8-min sortie at ~45% avg thrust; Jet-A \$6.5/gal; service life 50 sorties (baseline); warhead \$3.5k; chute pyro cartridge \$0.15k; engine cost is the dominant unit-cost and supply-chain risk (allied second-source per DDR-20). All physics/cost items flagged TBR-BF-01…10 above. No validated test results presented; all numbers are design targets/first-order estimates.
§ 18Indicative Bill of Materials & Supply Chain
BOM▾
Indicative Bill of Materials & Supply Chain
BOMDocument: 30_bill_of_materials.md
Platform: WILDFIRE AGP-1 (hero platform) — recoverable & reusable autonomous multirole combat UAS; strike configuration, baseline heavy-fuel piston propulsion
Status: Concept design / engineering study. All costs are indicative volume targets/estimates, not quotes. Unverified items carry [TBR] / [TBD].
Scope note: This document is the parts-cost (recurring material) BOM only. Touch-labor, assembly, integration, test, NRE amortization, scrap/yield, warranty, and program margin are added in 16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.md to reach the flyaway number. The intent here is to prove that the material cost floor leaves comfortable headroom under the ≤$150k flyaway target (now tracking ~$130k flyaway, Rev B.1 baseline §3.1; DDR-17, DDR-03), and that the recovery hardware required for reusability (DDR-15) is itself cheap, commodity-tier, and reuse-life-rated.
Rev B.1 closure framing (highest priority — overrides earlier 150 kg numbers everywhere): MTOW is re-baselined 150 → 175 kg (385 lb) as signed growth per the integration's own recommendation, which CLOSES finding F-1 / risk R-01 (the Rev B mass overrun): the reconciled full-up strike config = ~174.5 kg, closing within 175 kg MTOW with positive margin and the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor restored. This BOM is now aligned to the owner-doc line-item masses (FIX F-4): structure ~52 kg, engine ~17 kg dry — not the old 40 kg / 7 kg split. The engine line uprates to ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline) for the heavier MTOW (FIX F-3: propulsion-dry headline is an explicit ~26 kg itemization, dodge motor excluded). The terminal divert/"dodge" motor is charged ONCE, to survivability (~4.1 kg), and the ~3.2 kg phantom is removed from propulsion-dry (FIX F-2).
Rev B reuse framing (retained): WILDFIRE is RECOVERABLE and REUSABLE. The airframe + seeker + compute always come home to be refueled, rearmed, and reused; only the munition (if any) is expended. Palmer is emphatic that a throw-away airframe is "a total folly… we've never actually won a war fighting against aircraft… in that way" [19:38–19:44] and that "they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [20:25–20:32] (DDR-15). This BOM therefore carries the recovery hardware as standard airframe line items (Skyhook hook + reinforcement OR recovery parachute + airbags), flags the reuse-life-rated components, and lists ground recovery equipment separately as non-flyaway capital.
HONESTY NOTE (concept study, not a frozen design): the 175 kg closure is by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), not by validated test. Three items remain MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED risks and are NOT claimed solved: R-03 Skyhook recovery scaled ~5× beyond heritage (recovery method not down-selected); R-04 ≥50-sortie engine/structural life vs. engine-hour math; K5 combined-adverse range (~1,150 km worst case vs. 1,500 km floor — RTB reserve protected regardless).
0. DDR drivers satisfied
| DDR | Driver | How this BOM responds |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-06 | "…train them how to make it in 1 week, and missiles start coming off the line." [22:54] | Every line item restricted to automotive / agricultural-implement / COTS sourcing tiers; no aerospace-exotic primary structure; < 120 structural part numbers (Rev B.1 ceiling). |
| DDR-08 | "build a thousand a day rather than a thousand a decade." [11:32] | BOM is costed at production volume (≥1,000/day surge ⇒ ≥250k/yr-equivalent buy); every part is screened for "can a stamping/CNC/injection-mold line at this rate feed it?" |
| DDR-15 | "…they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe." [20:25–20:32] | Recovery hardware is a standard airframe line item (Assembly I), reuse-life-rated components are flagged (Assembly J), parts are specified for ≥50-sortie reuse life [TBR] and ≤30-min turnaround, and ground recovery equipment is itemized separately as non-flyaway capital (§8.5). Per-sortie material consumption collapses to fuel + (optional) munition. |
| DDR-20 | "…as a consolation prize our close allies… a bunch of Japanese automotive workers…" [23:24] | Each line carries a sourcing tier + named allied second-source class; no item is single-source by physics. |
| DDR-05/07 | DFM #1 KPP; accept weight for producibility AND for reuse robustness | Steel-and-commodity-composite bias; rivets/welds/structural adhesive consumables; generous tolerances; margin in structure sized for repeated launch/recovery load cycles, not single use. |
| DDR-03 | "…a \$300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price." [15:48] | Compute + sensors are a single-digit-percent slice of parts cost; treated as a falling-cost rounding error — and now recovered every sortie, so amortized to ~0 per sortie. |
| DDR-09/10/11 | Home-Depot-cheap laser/HPM hardening + terminal divert | Survivability items are commodity-material adders (ablative coat, steel/foil shield, COTS solid divert motor), explicitly budgeted; structure doubles as thermal/EM mass. Divert/dodge motor lives HERE (survivability), counted once (FIX F-2). |
| DDR-13 | Range + payload preserved + RTB fuel reserve for recovery | Fuel system sized for ~45 kg incl. RTB reserve (~4 kg) + contingency (~2 kg); up to 25 kg modular payload bay carried as line items; payload module itself is mission-kitted (separate BOM). RTB reserve is a fixed hold-back, protected regardless of combined-adverse range outcome (K5). |
Governing constraint — "Don't build the Batmobile" [36:54]: if a line item is more expensive or exotic than the mission demands, it is wrong. Where a cheaper commodity part meets the requirement, it is selected even at a mass/performance penalty (DDR-07). No one-way airframe — recovery hardware is not optional gold-plating, it is the economic core (DDR-15).
1. BOM philosophy & ground rules
- Indicative volume cost. Unit costs assume the surge-rate buy (DDR-08). Low-volume / prototype costs are 3–8× higher and are out of scope here.
- Parts cost only. This BOM rolls up to recurring material cost ($/ship-set). The flyaway build-up (labor, test, margin) lives in the cost doc.
- Reuse is designed in, not bolted on (DDR-15). Every component is screened against a ≥50-sortie reuse life [TBR] and a ≤30-min refuel+rearm turnaround. Items that are life-limited / scheduled-replacement (consumed across multiple sorties, not every sortie) are flagged in Assembly J and feed the cost-per-sortie model, not the per-sortie expendables.
- Per-sortie expendables are ONLY: fuel (~45 kg JP-8/Jet-A), the optional munition (mission-kit, separate BOM), and one RATO/launch cartridge if RATO launch is used. The airframe, seeker, compute, recovery hardware, and survivability hardware all return and are reused.
- Sourcing tiers (cheapest/most-resilient first — DDR-20 ordering): - COTS — commercial off-the-shelf, multi-vendor commodity (fasteners, batteries, cameras, SDR modules). - Automotive — made on/by automotive-grade lines (stampings, EFI, harness, ECUs, sensors). Highest-volume, most-resilient, the DDR-06 ideal. - Ag — agricultural-implement tier (heavier-gauge weldments, hydraulic/pneumatic, cast brackets). Tolerant tolerances, rugged — well-matched to reuse robustness. - Aerospace — only where unavoidable (propeller, turbine dash option, divert pyro, RATO interface). Flagged as risk. - Allied 2nd-source — explicit alternate supplier class outside CONUS prime, per DDR-20.
- Structural part-number ceiling: < 120 (Rev B.1 locked baseline §3.1; DDR-06/07). Section 9 tallies the structural count, now including recovery-structure reinforcements.
- Modular payload (up to 25 kg) is mission-kitted and not in this airframe BOM except for the common payload bay interface (mechanical/electrical mount). Warhead/seeker/ISR ball BOMs are per-mission addenda. The EO/IR seeker is a recovered, reused asset (DDR-15) — it returns home with the airframe.
- FIX F-2/F-3/F-4 mass discipline (Rev B.1): BOM line-item masses now match the owner subsystem docs — structure ~52 kg (Assembly A), engine ~17 kg dry (B1), propulsion-dry headline ~26 kg explicitly itemized with the dodge motor EXCLUDED, and the terminal divert/"dodge" motor charged ONCE to survivability (Assembly F, ~4.1 kg) with the ~3.2 kg phantom removed from propulsion-dry.
2. Top-level cost roll-up (indicative, volume)
| Major assembly | Indicative parts cost (USD) | % of parts cost |
|---|---|---|
| A. Structure & airframe (DFM steel + commodity composite, reuse-rated, ~52 kg) | 13,200 | 22% |
| B. Propulsion + fuel system (heavy-fuel piston baseline, ~35 hp, ~26 kg dry incl. fuel-system, dodge motor excluded) | 19,400 | 32% |
| C. Electrical / power | 2,650 | 4% |
| D. Compute + sensors (autonomy core, Thor-class) | 5,900 | 10% |
| E. Comms (SDR mesh, radios-optional) | 1,300 | 2% |
| F. Survivability (laser/HPM hardening + divert/dodge motor, counted once here) | 3,400 | 6% |
| G. Flight actuation & control surfaces | 2,050 | 3% |
| H. Harness, connectors, fasteners, consumables | 1,900 | 3% |
| I. Recovery & launch interface (Skyhook hook + reinforcement / chute + airbags) | 3,150 | 5% |
| J. Reuse-life-rated / scheduled-replacement components (on-airframe) | (counted in A–I; tallied in §7) | — |
| Subtotal — recurring parts ($/ship-set) | ≈ 52,950 | 88% |
| Scrap / yield / freight / packaging allowance (~12%) [TBR] | 6,350 | 11% |
| Total indicative material cost (loaded) | ≈ 59,300 | 99% |
| Headroom to ~$130k tracking flyaway (for labor+test+margin, per cost doc) | ≈ 70,700 | — |
Read-out: Material cost lands at ~$59.3k loaded, leaving ~$70.7k of the ~$130k Rev B.1 tracking flyaway (still ≤$150k target) for touch-labor, integration, acceptance test, recovery-system qualification, and program margin (handled in 16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.md). The cost rise vs. Rev B is driven by the ~35 hp engine uprate (B) and the structure aligned to the owner-doc ~52 kg (A); both add a little, and the flyaway still closes under the ≤$150k cap. Compute+sensors (D) are ~10% of parts even after upgrading to a Thor-class (~1000–2000 TOPS) module — Palmer's "rounding error" still holds (DDR-03), and because compute is recovered and reused every sortie, its per-sortie cost is effectively zero. Propulsion (B) remains the cost driver, as expected for a heavy-fuel airframe with a ~35 hp engine. The recovery hardware (Assembly I) is only ~5% of parts cost (~$3.15k) — the price of reusability is small against the airframe it brings home (DDR-15).
±10% baseline note: All values reconcile to the Rev B.1 locked baseline (MTOW 175 kg, ~$130k tracking flyaway ≤$150k, <120 structural PNs, ~45 kg fuel incl. RTB reserve, up to 25 kg payload). Material cost is a new rollup (no locked target other than the flyaway), so no deviation flag is needed; the rollup is enabling of the locked target and of the reuse-life / cost-per-sortie KPPs.
3. Assembly A — Structure & airframe
DFM doctrine (DDR-05/06/07): stamped/press-braked steel + sheet, glass/basalt commodity composite, joined by rivets + robotic MIG welds + structural adhesive. Single-stage press radii, generous tolerances. No autoclave CFRP, no Ti billet (DDR-17 / brief §6). Rev B.1 reuse note: primary structure is sized for repeated launch + recovery load cycles (≥50 sorties [TBR]), not single use — fatigue-tolerant gauges, generous joint margins, and inspectable/replaceable hard-points (DDR-15). Structure mass aligned to owner-doc ~52 kg (FIX F-4) — not the old ~40 kg figure.
| # | Component | Indicative material/part | Qty | Unit cost $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Fuselage primary structure | Press-braked / stamped HSLA steel (e.g. 1018/4130-equiv) longerons + skins, robotic-MIG welded; reuse-fatigue gauge, 175 kg-class | 1 set | 2,950 | 2,950 | Automotive/Ag | JP/KR auto stampers |
| A2 | Wing spar + skin set | Roll-formed steel spar caps + glass/basalt composite skin, adhesive+rivet; reuse-rated spar, 175 kg-class loads | 1 set | 2,850 | 2,850 | Automotive/COTS | EU composite molders |
| A3 | V-tail surfaces (2) | Glass composite skin over steel rib, adhesive bonded | 2 | 340 | 680 | COTS/Ag | JP/EU |
| A4 | Modular nose / payload bay shell | RIM/injection-molded glass-filled polymer or stamped steel; bolt-on interface ring (up to 25 kg payload) | 1 | 660 | 660 | Automotive | KR/JP |
| A5 | Engine bay firewall + pusher mount | Stamped steel weldment, heat-shielded; reuse-rated mount, sized for ~35 hp engine | 1 | 540 | 540 | Ag/Automotive | JP/KR |
| A6 | Internal bulkheads / frames | Stamped steel, single-stage press radii | 7 | 120 | 840 | Automotive | EU/JP |
| A7 | Access panels / hatches | Press-braked steel or molded polymer, captive fasteners (rapid-turnaround service access, DDR-15) | 6 | 80 | 480 | COTS | global |
| A8 | Wing/tail attach fittings | Cast or forged steel brackets (ag-implement grade); inspectable, replaceable | 4 | 165 | 660 | Ag | JP/KR castings |
| A9 | Structural adhesive (allotment) | 2-part automotive structural epoxy/urethane | lot | — | (see H) | COTS | global |
| A10 | Wing fold / removable joint hardware | Steel pins + clevis (ag tier); quick-release for transport + turnaround | 1 set | 240 | 240 | Ag | global |
| A11 | Belly recovery wear keel / skid | Bent steel tube + replaceable HDPE wear shoe (reuse-life-rated, see J) | 1 | 340 | 340 | Ag/COTS | global |
| A12 | Skyhook recovery hard-point + spar reinforcement | Forged steel capture-hook hard-point + local wing/fuselage doubler + load-path reinforcement (carries recovery snatch load into primary spar), scaled for 175 kg-class snatch [TBR — see R-03] | 1 set | 1,500 | 1,500 | Ag/Automotive (forging) | JP/KR/EU forgings |
| A13 | Misc brackets, mounts, standoffs | Stamped steel / molded polymer | ~14 | ~46 | 650 | Automotive/COTS | global |
| Assembly A subtotal | ≈ 13,200 |
Notes / DFM + reuse rationale: - Steel-biased primary structure is a deliberate weight penalty traded for producibility (DDR-07: "heavier planes, less performance, but… rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing" [10:57]) and for reuse robustness — a steel airframe shrugs off the repeated snatch/landing cycles a one-way composite airframe never has to survive (DDR-15). It also doubles as HPM/EMP shielding mass and anti-laser thermal mass (DDR-09/10) — the structure is part of the survivability scheme, avoiding dedicated parts. - A12 Skyhook hard-point + reinforcement is the structural enabler of cable recovery: the forged capture point and its spar doublers take the recovery snatch load (a high transient g-load) into the wing/fuselage primary load path. Sized for ≥50 captures with inspection between [TBR by fatigue analysis]. This recovery scheme is scaled ~5× beyond heritage Skyhook practice and the recovery method is NOT yet down-selected — see risk R-03 (managed, not-yet-verified). This is the structural cost of "I'm not throwing away my airframe" [20:32] and is intentionally a small adder (~$1.5k) against the airframe it recovers. - Glass/basalt composite (not carbon) chosen for cost, RF-transparency for the comms aperture, and no carbon-fiber HPM antenna effect. - Structure empty mass target ~52 kg of the ~104.5 kg empty-equipped weight (Rev B.1 locked baseline §3.1; FIX F-4). This corrects the earlier ~40 kg headline to match the owner structures doc; the increase reflects the 175 kg-class airframe, reuse-rated fatigue gauges, and recovery reinforcement.
4. Assembly B — Propulsion + fuel system
Baseline: heavy-fuel (JP-8/Jet-A) 2-stroke EFI piston, ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline, ≈26 kW), uprated for the 175 kg MTOW, pusher (Rev B.1 locked baseline). Turbine is a dash variant option, costed separately (B-alt). Common-fuel mandate (DDR-13). Range/payload preserved to terminal phase plus RTB fuel reserve for recovery (DDR-13/15). Fuel load ~45 kg incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency. FIX F-3: propulsion-dry headline is the explicit ~26 kg itemization below (engine ~17 kg dry + prop/mounts/fuel-system); the terminal divert/"dodge" motor is EXCLUDED here and charged once to survivability (Assembly F).
| # | Component | Indicative material/part | Qty | Unit cost $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source | Dry mass (kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | Heavy-fuel 2-stroke EFI engine | COTS UAV heavy-fuel piston, ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline) (class of DA/3W/Sky Power/Hirth HF, uprated) | 1 | 14,200 | 14,200 | Aerospace/COTS-UAV | EU (DE/AT) HF engines | ~17.0 |
| B2 | Pusher propeller | Composite fixed-pitch, ground-adjustable, sized for ~35 hp; reuse-inspected | 1 | 680 | 680 | Aerospace/COTS | EU/US | ~1.0 |
| B3 | EFI ECU + injectors + sensors | Automotive-derived small-engine EFI kit | 1 set | 820 | 820 | Automotive | JP/EU auto-EFI | ~0.8 |
| B4 | Ignition + CDI / coil | Automotive small-engine ignition | 1 set | 150 | 150 | Automotive | global | ~0.4 |
| B5 | Exhaust + muffler (IR-suppressed) | Stamped/welded stainless, baffled | 1 | 310 | 310 | Ag/Automotive | JP/KR | ~1.4 |
| B6 | Fuel tank (bladder + cell) | Self-sealing-lite bladder in stamped steel cell, ~45 kg fuel incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency | 1 | 780 | 780 | Ag/Automotive | EU bladders | ~2.2 |
| B7 | Fuel pump + filter + lines | Automotive in-tank EFI pump, commodity lines/clamps | 1 set | 260 | 260 | Automotive | JP/EU | ~0.7 |
| B8 | Engine mount + vibration isolators | Steel weldment + COTS elastomer isolators (isolators are life-limited, see J), sized for ~35 hp | 1 | 220 | 220 | Ag/COTS | global | ~1.0 |
| B9 | Starter / genset coupling | Brushless starter-generator (charges ship battery; enables rapid restart for turnaround) | 1 | 780 | 780 | Automotive/COTS | JP/EU | ~1.0 |
| B10 | Cooling (air baffles / oil cooler) | Stamped baffles + COTS oil cooler | 1 set | 190 | 190 | Automotive | global | ~0.4 |
| B11 | Throttle servo / actuator | COTS HV servo | 1 | 90 | 90 | COTS | global | ~0.1 |
| B12 | Fuel-system fasteners/clamps/seals | (rolled into H) | lot | — | — | COTS | global | (in H) |
| B13 | Quick-connect refuel / defuel coupling | COTS dry-break fuel coupling for ≤30-min turnaround refuel (DDR-15) | 1 | 180 | 180 | Automotive/Ag | global | ~0.2 |
| Assembly B subtotal (piston baseline) — dry | ≈ 18,660 | ≈ 26.2 kg dry | ||||||
| + contingency / break-in spares ~4% | ≈ 19,400 | — |
Propulsion-dry headline (FIX F-3): ~26 kg dry charged to propulsion = engine ~17 kg + prop/mounts/fuel-system/accessories ~9 kg. The ~3.2 kg "phantom" previously double-counted here (a divert/dodge-motor allocation) is REMOVED and the dodge motor is charged ONCE to survivability (Assembly F, ~4.1 kg) — FIX F-2. Fuel (~45 kg) is reported separately and is not part of the ~26 kg dry headline.
Dash-variant option (not in baseline rollup): | B-alt | 90–130 lbf micro-turboprop/turbojet (e.g. PBS/AMT/JetCat class) + FADEC + fuel system delta | 1 | +24,000–38,000 | — | Aerospace | EU (turbine houses) |
- Turbine adds ~$24–38k and is single-source-risky (few allied turbine houses) — flag below. Reserve for the dedicated high-speed strike sub-variant only; baseline strike/ISR uses the piston (DDR-17 discipline). Palmer "love[s] turbines" [20:16] for the very-fast interceptor — that is BACKFIRE's domain (
20_variant_backfire_interceptor.md), not the WILDFIRE baseline. - B1 (engine) is the dominant single line item and the principal long-lead / aerospace-tier risk — see §10. The ~35 hp uprate raises the engine cost (~$11.5k → ~$14.2k) and dry mass to ~17 kg dry (FIX F-4) — not the old ~7 kg figure. Reuse strongly favors a robust, restartable, easily-serviced engine; the heavy-fuel piston is chosen partly because it survives many start/stop cycles and is field-serviceable in turnaround (DDR-15). ≥50-sortie engine life vs. engine-hour math is NOT yet verified — see risk R-04 (managed).
- B13 quick-connect refuel coupling directly serves the ≤30-min refuel+rearm turnaround KPP (DDR-15).
5. Assembly C — Electrical / power
Ship power is generated by the engine starter-generator (B9); battery is buffer + engine-off reserve. All avionics power inside the Faraday bay (DDR-10). Power loads grew vs. Rev A to feed the Thor-class compute (Assembly D). Electrical mass ~7.2 kg (Rev B.1 reconciled).
| # | Component | Indicative material/part | Qty | Unit cost $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Main buffer battery | Automotive-grade LiFePO4 / Li-ion pack, ~0.6–0.8 kWh (life-limited, see J) | 1 | 560 | 560 | Automotive/COTS | JP/KR cells |
| C2 | Power distribution unit (PDU) | Automotive-grade solid-state PDU + fusing, sized for ~1.2 kW compute peak | 1 | 360 | 360 | Automotive | JP/EU |
| C3 | DC-DC converters (28V/12V/5V rails) | COTS industrial isolated DC-DC | 4 | 80 | 320 | COTS | global |
| C4 | Transient/EMP protection module | TVS + filtering + shielded feed-throughs (DDR-10) | 1 | 280 | 280 | COTS/Automotive | EU/JP |
| C5 | Wiring harness — power segment | Automotive-loom, shielded twisted pairs | 1 | (see H) | — | Automotive | global |
| C6 | Backup avionics battery | COTS Li-ion, isolated reserve (life-limited, see J) | 1 | 160 | 160 | COTS | JP/KR |
| C7 | Bus bars, relays, contactors | Automotive 12/28V parts | 1 set | 200 | 200 | Automotive | global |
| C8 | Power connectors (sealed) | COTS sealed automotive connectors | lot | (see H) | — | Automotive | global |
| C9 | Compute power conditioning (clean rail) | Low-noise buck for Thor-class SoM | 1 | 220 | 220 | COTS | EU/JP |
| C10 | Battery / power health-monitor BMS | COTS BMS w/ cycle-count logging (feeds reuse qualification, DDR-15/19) | 1 | 150 | 150 | Automotive/COTS | JP/KR |
| Assembly C subtotal | ≈ 2,650 |
- All cells automotive/consumer tier (DDR-03/20) — most-resilient supply class on earth. C10 BMS cycle logging supports the health-monitoring needed to qualify the ship for its next sortie (DDR-15/19).
6. Assembly D — Compute + sensors (autonomy core)
The AIGP heritage brain (vision-only, GPS/RF-optional) runs on best-in-class COTS edge-AI compute (Thor-class, ~1000–2000 TOPS) — Rev B removes the competition-hardware ceiling. Compute is still a deliberate rounding error (DDR-03): "a \$300 chip is not the thing that is driving that price." [15:48]. And because the compute + seeker come home every sortie (DDR-15), the amortized per-sortie cost of this entire assembly is effectively zero. Autonomy mass ~3.4 kg (Rev B.1 reconciled).
| # | Component | Indicative material/part | Qty | Unit cost $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Edge-AI compute module | COTS Thor-class SoM (~1000–2000 TOPS) (Jetson Thor / equivalent) | 1 | 2,800 | 2,800 | COTS | global semis |
| D2 | Carrier / IO board | Custom PCB (commodity assembly), multi-SoM-family footprint | 1 | 260 | 260 | COTS | EU/JP PCBA |
| D3 | Wide-FOV global-shutter cameras | COTS machine-vision / automotive ADAS cameras | 6 | 110 | 660 | Automotive/COTS | JP/KR imagers |
| D4 | EO/IR gimbal (compact) — recovered & reused seeker | COTS small ISR ball (uncooled LWIR + EO); returns home every sortie (DDR-15) | 1 | 1,150 | 1,150 | COTS/Aero-lite | EU/IL/KR |
| D5 | Dual MEMS IMU (voted) | Automotive/industrial IMU | 2 | 130 | 260 | Automotive | JP/CH(neutral)/EU |
| D6 | Barometric + air-data sensor | COTS baro + pitot module | 1 | 70 | 70 | COTS | global |
| D7 | Optical-flow / downward sensor | COTS optical-flow module (aids precise recovery approach) | 1 | 55 | 55 | COTS | global |
| D8 | Low-SWaP star tracker | COTS micro star-tracker (now baselined qty 1 for GPS-denied long-range nav) | 1 | 420 | 420 | COTS/Aero-lite | EU |
| D9 | Internal optical data bus | POF/fiber transceivers + cable (HPM-hard, DDR-10) | 1 set | 270 | 270 | COTS | JP/EU optics |
| D10 | Flight-control MCU (failsafe) | Automotive-grade safety MCU (deterministic abort, DDR-18) | 1 | 110 | 110 | Automotive | JP/EU |
| D11 | Storage (mission/black-box + health log) | COTS industrial NVMe; logs airframe health for reuse qual (DDR-15/19) | 1 | 110 | 110 | COTS | JP/KR |
| D12 | Thermal management for compute | Heat-sink + commodity fan/heat-pipe (sized for Thor-class ~40–60 W dissipation) | 1 | 60 | 60 | COTS | global |
| Assembly D subtotal | ≈ 6,225 | ||||||
| rounded down incl. PCBA assembly allowance / volume curve | ≈ 5,900 |
- D1 Thor-class SoM replaces the Rev A Orin-class part (Rev B directive: best-in-class, not a competition-spec ceiling). Even at ~$2.8k it is ~10% of parts cost — Palmer's rounding-error thesis holds, and as a recovered/reused asset its per-sortie cost → 0 (DDR-03/15).
- D4 EO/IR gimbal is the reusable seeker Palmer refuses to throw away [20:30] — it is recovered with the airframe, not expended.
- D9 optical internal bus is a survivability requirement (DDR-10 EMP), not gold-plating — it removes copper antennas inside the airframe.
- D8 star-tracker is now baselined (qty 1) to strengthen GPS-denied nav over the longer range (1,500–2,500 km nominal; combined-adverse worst case ~1,150 km — see K5, RTB reserve protected regardless) [TBR by nav analysis] — DDR-02/04.
- All sensors COTS/automotive — second-sourceable across allies (DDR-20).
7. Assembly E — Comms (open-standard SDR mesh, radios-optional)
Mission is complete with radios OFF (DDR-01). Radio is opportunistic mesh/relay + optional SATCOM, on open standards (DDR-14). Comms mass ~0.9 kg (Rev B.1 reconciled).
| # | Component | Indicative material/part | Qty | Unit cost $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | SDR mesh radio (open-standard) | COTS software-defined mesh module | 1 | 620 | 620 | COTS | EU/JP/US |
| E2 | Antennas (mesh) + commodity coax | COTS blade/patch antennas | 2 | 60 | 120 | COTS | global |
| E3 | SATCOM module (optional) | COTS L/Ku micro-terminal | 0–1 | 1,400 | 0 | COTS | allied SATCOM |
| E4 | RF front-end / filtering + shielded feedthrough | COTS + EMI gasket (DDR-10) | 1 | 220 | 220 | COTS | EU/JP |
| E5 | IFF/transponder (range-safety, T&E) | COTS transponder for ranges (DDR-19) | 1 | 340 | 340 | COTS | allied |
| Assembly E subtotal | ≈ 1,300 |
- SATCOM (E3) is qty 0 baseline — opportunistic only (DDR-01). Adding it does not break the cost target but is mission-kitted.
8. Assembly F — Survivability + G actuation + H consumables + I recovery/launch + ground equipment
8.1 Assembly F — Survivability (laser / HPM / kinetic)
Palmer's thesis: cheap commodity hardening, not exquisite (DDR-09 "trip to Home Depot and \$10 will make a drone 100 times more survivable against a laser" [18:07]; DDR-10 HPM; DDR-11 terminal divert). Rev B reuse note: ablative skin and sacrificial strips are scheduled-replacement consumables between sorties (Assembly J) — they protect a returning airframe, not a one-way one. Rev B.1 mass note (FIX F-2): the terminal divert/"dodge" motor is charged ONCE, HERE, to survivability (~4.1 kg); the ~3.2 kg phantom previously double-counted in propulsion-dry is removed. Survivability mass ~9.3 kg (Rev B.1 reconciled, divert motor included once).
| # | Component | Indicative material/part | Qty | Unit cost $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Anti-laser ablative/reflective skin coat | Intumescent/ablative paint + high-emissivity reflective topcoat (DDR-09) — reapplied at turnaround if dwelled (see J) | 1 set | 150 | 150 | COTS (industrial coatings) | EU/JP coatings |
| F2 | Thermal-mass / sacrificial leading-edge strips | Steel/ceramic-loaded replaceable sacrificial strips | 1 set | 130 | 130 | Ag/COTS | global |
| F3 | Faraday avionics enclosure | Stamped steel box + EMI gasket + honeycomb-vent (DDR-10) | 1 | 300 | 300 | Automotive | JP/KR |
| F4 | Shielded apertures / mesh windows | Conductive mesh over sensor windows | 1 set | 100 | 100 | COTS | global |
| F5 | Optional slow-spin actuator (anti-laser dwell defeat) | COTS BLDC + bearing (spin distributes laser dwell) | 0–1 | 200 | 0 | COTS | global |
| F6 | Terminal lateral solid-divert "dodge" motor (charged ONCE here — FIX F-2) | COTS small solid rocket motor + squib (DDR-11) — reloadable module; motor is the expended item, mount/SAD reused; ~4.1 kg charged once to survivability, EXCLUDED from propulsion-dry | 1 | 1,900 | 1,900 | Aerospace (energetics) | allied energetics |
| F7 | Divert motor mount + thrust bulkhead | Stamped steel weldment (reused; carries reloadable divert cartridge) | 1 | 180 | 180 | Ag/Automotive | global |
| F8 | Divert initiator / safe-arm device (SAD) | COTS pyro SAD (DDR-18 positive control) — reusable SAD, replaceable squib | 1 | 320 | 320 | Aerospace | allied |
| F9 | HPM transient suppression (avionics) | (counted in C4) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Assembly F subtotal | ≈ 3,080 | ||||||
| rounded incl. coatings/consumables | ≈ 3,400 |
- F6 divert/"dodge" motor is the ONLY place this item is charged (FIX F-2) — framed as a reloadable cartridge in a reused mount (F7) and reusable SAD (F8), consistent with DDR-15. The ~4.1 kg is counted here in survivability and explicitly removed (~3.2 kg phantom) from propulsion-dry (Assembly B). If the divert is fired, only the solid cartridge + squib are consumed at turnaround; the airframe and SAD return. Everything else in F is true Home-Depot-tier (DDR-09).
- F1/F2/F3 reuse the steel structure as thermal/EM mass — minimal added parts, per DDR-09 intent.
- DDR-12 closure note (REQ-12b/c): surviving laser + HPM + kinetic simultaneously while holding range + payload + RTB within MTOW now closes at 175 kg MTOW with positive margin; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending) — not test-verified.
8.2 Assembly G — Flight actuation & control surfaces
Scaled up for the 175 kg-class airframe; servos rated for repeated-sortie duty (DDR-15).
| # | Component | Part | Qty | Unit $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 | Control-surface servos (HV, sealed) | COTS robotic/industrial servos, reuse-duty-rated | 4 | 140 | 560 | COTS/Automotive | JP/KR |
| G2 | Servo redundancy / dual-wind (V-tail) | COTS | 2 | 140 | 280 | COTS | JP/KR |
| G3 | Pushrods, horns, hinges, bearings | Steel/COTS hardware | 1 set | 460 | 460 | Ag/COTS | global |
| G4 | Actuator power/signal sub-harness | (in H) | — | — | — | Automotive | global |
| G5 | Servo controller / mixer board | COTS | 1 | 190 | 190 | COTS | EU/JP |
| G6 | Surface position feedback sensors | COTS hall/encoder | 4 | 40 | 160 | Automotive | global |
| G7 | Spares/contingency | lot | — | 400 | — | — | |
| Assembly G subtotal | ≈ 2,050 |
8.3 Assembly H — Harness, connectors, fasteners, assembly consumables
| # | Component | Part | Qty | Unit $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | Main wiring harness (loom) | Automotive shielded harness, modular connectors | 1 | 620 | 620 | Automotive | JP/EU |
| H2 | Sealed connectors / backshells | COTS automotive sealed series | lot | — | 340 | Automotive | global |
| H3 | Rivets (blind + structural) | Commodity aluminum/steel rivets | ~750 | — | 110 | COTS | global |
| H4 | Threaded fasteners (bolts/nuts/washers) | Commodity grade-8 / metric class-10.9 | ~320 | — | 140 | COTS | global |
| H5 | Structural adhesive | 2-part automotive epoxy/urethane | lot | — | 220 | COTS | global |
| H6 | Weld wire / MIG consumables | Commodity MIG wire + gas (allocated/ship-set) | lot | — | 70 | COTS | global |
| H7 | Sealants / thread-locker / RTV | COTS | lot | — | 90 | COTS | global |
| H8 | Grommets, clamps, P-clips, loom tape | COTS automotive | lot | — | 110 | Automotive | global |
| H9 | Service / turnaround consumables (gaskets, O-rings, safety wire) | COTS — replaced per turnaround for reuse (DDR-15) | lot | — | 200 | COTS | global |
| Assembly H subtotal | ≈ 1,900 |
Fastener strategy (DDR-06/07): rivets + welds + structural adhesive are the primary joining methods — exactly Palmer's "bam bam bam, rivet rivet rivet, crappy glue, weld over the whole thing" [10:59]. Threaded fasteners are reserved for serviceable interfaces (engine, payload bay, access panels, recovery hard-point inspection) so the ship can be rapidly opened, inspected, refueled, rearmed, and re-launched within ≤30 min (DDR-15). High fastener piece-count (H3/H4) does not count against the <120 structural part-number ceiling — these are commodity consumable line items, tracked as lots.
8.4 Assembly I — Recovery & launch interface (REUSABILITY hardware, DDR-15)
This is the airframe-side hardware that lets the ship come home and fly again — the physical embodiment of "they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused" [20:25]. Baseline recovery = Skyhook arrested cable capture (runway-independent, no landing gear — DDR-07 cost/producibility); parachute + airbag is the primary alternate; VTOL recovery is a trade (not baselined; weight/cost penalty, DDR-17). Ground-side recovery equipment is itemized separately in §8.5 (non-flyaway capital). Recovery mass ~6.5 kg (Rev B.1 reconciled).
R-03 MANAGED RISK (not-yet-verified): at 175 kg MTOW the Skyhook capture is scaled ~5× beyond demonstrated heritage, and the recovery method is NOT yet down-selected between Skyhook and chute+airbag. This BOM carries both modes conservatively; down-selection and snatch-load fatigue validation are pending.
| # | Component | Part | Qty | Unit $ | Ext $ | Tier | Allied 2nd-source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I1 | Rail launch lugs / shoes | Stamped/machined steel, reuse-rated, 175 kg-class | 2 | 120 | 240 | Ag/Automotive | global |
| I2 | RATO booster mount + frangible interface | Steel weldment + frangible attach (RATO cartridge itself is a launch-kit expendable, see §8.5) | 1 | 300 | 300 | Ag/Aerospace | allied |
| I3 | Skyhook capture hook + actuator | Deployable wingtip/fuselage capture hook + COTS BLDC deploy actuator + lock (engages arresting cable for recovery) | 1 | 980 | 980 | Ag/COTS + Aero-lite | EU/JP |
| I4 | Skyhook cable-load snubber / energy absorber (airframe side) | Inline elastomer/mechanical snubber limiting snatch load into A12 hard-point (life-limited, see J; sized for 175 kg-class snatch [TBR — R-03]) | 1 | 360 | 360 | Automotive/Ag | global |
| I5 | Recovery parachute + mortar (ALT recovery) | COTS reefed recovery chute + mortar deploy, sized for 175 kg | 0–1 | 720 | 720 | COTS | EU/US |
| I6 | Landing airbags + inflator (ALT recovery) | COTS multi-cell impact airbags + cold-gas/pyro inflator (cushion belly touchdown for reuse) | 0–1 | 360 | 360 | COTS/Ag | EU/US |
| I7 | Recovery sequencer / release electronics | COTS — selects Skyhook vs. chute+airbag mode; logs recovery loads | 1 | 150 | 150 | COTS | global |
| I8 | Recovery approach beacon / optical target aid (passive) | Passive retro-reflective / optical fiducial for vision-guided final approach (DDR-02, no-RF-critical-path) | 1 | 100 | 100 | COTS | global |
| Assembly I subtotal | ≈ 3,150 |
- Recovery mode trade (baseline = Skyhook; NOT yet down-selected, R-03):
| Recovery mode | Airframe parts (I-items) | Approx airframe cost | Mass adder | Reuse / turnaround impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyhook arrested cable (BASELINE) | I1–I4, I7, I8 + A12 reinforcement | ~$2.1k airframe-side + ground rig (§8.5) | ~3.0 kg | Cleanest reuse: ship caught undamaged, fastest re-launch; needs ground rig | Runway-independent, ship-agnostic; ~5× beyond heritage at 175 kg [TBR — R-03] |
| Parachute + airbags (ALT) | I5, I6, I7 | ~$1.2k | ~3.5 kg | Simple, no ground rig, but inspect/repack chute + airbags each turnaround → slower; landing-load inspection | Good for austere sites; viable down-select candidate |
| VTOL (TRADE, not baselined) | — (requires lift props/motors/battery) | +$8–15k + weight | +12–20 kg | Spot-recovery, but heavy SWaP/cost penalty (DDR-17) | Carried as a trade only; violates "don't build the Batmobile" at this MTOW |
- No landing gear (Rev B.1 locked baseline §3.1) — recovery is by Skyhook (baseline) or chute+airbag (alt), keeping parts count and cost down (DDR-07) while still recovering the whole airframe (DDR-15). This is not the discarded one-way scheme — it is exactly the recoverable architecture Palmer demands.
- RATO cartridge (consumable solid motor) is a launch-kit / range item (§8.5), not airframe BOM. I2 is the airframe interface only. If rail-only launch is used, no per-sortie launch expendable is consumed.
8.5 Ground recovery & launch equipment (NON-FLYAWAY capital — separate from ship-set)
Per DDR-15, the recovery system includes ground equipment that is not part of the per-airframe flyaway and is amortized across the whole fleet over many sorties. Itemized here for completeness and to feed the cost-per-sortie model in 16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.md. None of this counts toward the ≤$150k flyaway or the structural PN tally.
| # | Ground equipment | Indicative cost (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| GR1 | Skyhook recovery rig (mast/boom + arresting cable + drum/energy absorber + control), 175 kg-class capture energy [TBR — R-03] | 60,000–120,000 [TBR] | One per recovery site; supports many airframes, many sorties; amortized to ~$0 per sortie at fleet scale (DDR-15) |
| GR2 | Pneumatic / rail launcher (for rail launch), 175 kg-class | 40,000–90,000 [TBR] | Reusable; alternative/complement to RATO |
| GR3 | RATO launch cartridges (per-launch expendable) | 300–900 each [TBR] | Only if RATO used; the sole per-launch material expendable besides fuel/munition |
| GR4 | Turnaround kit (fuel cart w/ dry-break, rearm trolley, coating touch-up, chute repack/airbag service set, inspection toolkit) | 5,000–15,000 [TBR] | Enables ≤30-min refuel+rearm turnaround by a small team (DDR-15) |
| GR5 | Health-monitoring / reuse-qualification ground station | 8,000–20,000 [TBR] | Reads C10/D11 logs; clears ship for next sortie (DDR-15/19) |
Ground equipment cost is fleet-amortized, not per-airframe. At a notional 10,000-sortie service life of one Skyhook rig, GR1 contributes well under $20/sortie — negligible against the ≤~$3.1k/sortie airframe-amortized target (DDR-15). This is the structural reason reusability wins economically: "I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use" [20:42].
9. Structural part-number tally (Rev B.1 ceiling < 120; DDR-06/07)
Counting distinct structural part numbers (not commodity consumable lots, not avionics/sensor electronics):
| Source | Structural PNs |
|---|---|
| A. Structure (A1–A8, A10–A13, treating sets as PN groups) | ~52 |
| A12. Skyhook hard-point + spar reinforcement structural PNs | ~6 |
| B. Propulsion structural (mount, firewall, exhaust, tank cell, refuel coupling I/F) | ~10 |
| F/G structural (Faraday box, divert bulkhead/mount, servo brackets) | ~16 |
| I. Recovery/launch structural (lugs, RATO I/F, Skyhook hook+snubber, chute/airbag mounts) | ~14 |
| Misc structural brackets/standoffs | ~14 |
| Total structural part numbers | ≈ 112 |
≈ 112 < 120 ✅ — within the Rev B.1 DDR-06/07 ceiling with margin. The rise from Rev A (~88) is driven by the larger 175 kg-class airframe plus the recovery structure (Skyhook hard-point, snubber, chute/airbag mounts) that reusability requires (DDR-15) — a deliberate, mission-traced addition, not Batmobile creep (DDR-17). Commodity fasteners/rivets/adhesive (H3–H8) and electronic modules (Assemblies C/D/E) are not structural PNs and are excluded from this count by definition. Reducing further is a producibility goal: candidate consolidations are A6 bulkheads (7→5), A13 brackets via combined stampings, and integrating the Skyhook hard-point into the wing spar forging [TBR].
10. Long-lead / single-source risks & mitigations (DDR-08/20)
| # | Item | Risk | Why | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | B1 Heavy-fuel piston engine (~35 hp) | HIGH — long-lead, aerospace/UAV-tier, few CONUS makers; ~$14.2k = largest single line | UAV HF engines are a thin supply base; not yet automotive-line producible; the ~35 hp uprate narrows the candidate set | (a) Qualify ≥2 allied sources (German/Austrian HF engine houses) per DDR-20; (b) fund a DFM heavy-fuel engine as a follow-on so an automotive small-engine line can build it (the true DDR-06 endpoint); (c) hold strategic engine stock for surge. Reuse reduces total engines needed — a reused ship needs one engine for ≥50 sorties, not 50 engines (DDR-15). ≥50-sortie engine life vs. engine-hour math NOT yet verified — see R-04. |
| R2 | F6/F8 Terminal solid divert ("dodge") motor + SAD | HIGH — energetics; export-controlled; limited allied energetics houses | Solid propellant + pyro SAD are regulated, low-volume | Qualify 2 allied energetics suppliers; standardize on a common small SRM shared with RATO/BACKFIRE; design divert as a reloadable bolt-on cartridge so airframe ships without it for non-contested missions (DDR-17) and only the cartridge is consumed if fired (DDR-15). Charged ONCE to survivability (FIX F-2). |
| R3 | I3/I4 Skyhook hook + snubber & A12 hard-point | MED-HIGH — reuse-critical hardware scaled ~5× beyond heritage at 175 kg; recovery method NOT yet down-selected; recovery-load fatigue not yet validated | Recovery snatch is a high transient load; fatigue life sets reuse life; heritage Skyhook practice is well below 175 kg | Fatigue-qualify A12 + I4 for ≥50 captures with NDI inspection interval [TBR]; down-select Skyhook vs. chute+airbag; carry chute+airbag (I5/I6) as a fully independent alternate recovery mode so reuse is not single-thread; standardize hook/snubber with BACKFIRE. MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED. |
| R4 | B1 engine / structural reuse life (≥50 sorties) | MED-HIGH — claimed reuse life vs. engine-hour and structural-fatigue math not yet closed | A ≥50-sortie life implies engine TBO and structural fatigue margins that exceed typical small-UAV HF-engine duty cycles | Engine-hour budget analysis + accelerated fatigue/endurance test program in the reuse-cycle shoot-off (DDR-19); scheduled-replacement strategy for life-limited items (Assembly J). MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED — reuse life 50 [TBR]. |
| R5 | D1 Thor-class edge-AI SoM | MED — semiconductor supply / allocation; export rules | Single-vendor SoM families | Architect carrier (D2) to accept 2–3 SoM families (drop-in); DDR-03 says cost falls — ride Moore's law; hold buffer stock. Compute is recovered & reused → far fewer modules needed across the fleet (DDR-15). |
| R6 | D4 EO/IR gimbal / seeker | MED — uncooled LWIR core supply, ITAR/export | Few LWIR core makers | Dual-source EO/IR cores (allied IL/EU/KR); seeker is recovered and reused (Palmer: "I'm not throwing away my seeker" [20:30]) → demand per sortie ≈ 0; gimbal is mission-kit, not on critical airframe path. |
| R7 | GR1 Skyhook ground rig | MED — capital + siting; per-site availability gates reuse turnaround; 175 kg-class capture energy unproven [R-03] | Recovery requires the ground rig present and serviceable | Provide chute+airbag (I5/I6) austere-site fallback; field ≥2 rigs per operating area; rig is fleet-amortized capital (§8.5), not flyaway. |
| R8 | Turbine dash engine (B-alt) | MED-HIGH (option only) | Few allied micro-turbine houses; high cost | Keep turbine as optional sub-variant / BACKFIRE domain; do not baseline (DDR-17). |
| R9 | C1 battery cells | LOW-MED — cell allocation | Global cell demand | Automotive/consumer cells = deepest supply; dual chemistry qualified; cycle-logged (C10) for reuse qual. |
| R10 | Steel feedstock / coatings | LOW | Commodity | Multi-mill; the whole point of DDR-06 (any car/ag factory). |
Supply-chain doctrine (DDR-20): the structure, electrical, comms, most of compute, actuation, harness, fasteners, and the bulk of the recovery hardware are automotive/COTS tier and globally + allied second-sourceable today. The genuine chokepoints remain energetics (divert/RATO) and heavy-fuel propulsion — both isolated as bolt-on/reloadable modules so the airframe line itself meets "train them how to make it in 1 week" [22:54]. Reusability further softens every supply risk: a fleet that flies each airframe ≥50 times needs far fewer engines, seekers, and compute modules than a one-way fleet of equal effect — "I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use" [20:42].
11. Assumptions
- Costs are indicative volume targets at surge rate (DDR-08), not vendor quotes; ±30% accuracy at this concept stage [TBR by RFQ].
- All numbers reconcile to the Rev B.1 locked baseline (MTOW 175 kg, empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, fuel ~45 kg incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency, payload up to 25 kg, ~$130k tracking flyaway ≤$150k, <120 structural PNs, reuse life ≥50 sorties [TBR], turnaround ≤30 min).
- Rev B.1 reconciled empty-equipped masses (canonical): structure ~52 kg + propulsion dry ~26 kg + electrical ~7.2 kg + autonomy ~3.4 kg + survivability ~9.3 kg (incl. divert motor ONCE) + comms ~0.9 kg + CPI ~3.2 kg + recovery ~6.5 kg ≈ 104.5 kg empty-equipped; + fuel ~45 kg + payload up to 25 kg ≈ ~174.5 kg full-up, closing within 175 kg MTOW with positive margin.
- FIX F-4: BOM line-item masses match owner docs — structure 52 kg, engine ~17 kg dry (not the old 40 kg / 7 kg split). FIX F-2: divert/"dodge" motor counted ONCE in survivability (~4.1 kg); ~3.2 kg phantom removed from propulsion-dry. FIX F-3: propulsion-dry headline = explicit ~26 kg itemization, dodge motor excluded.
- Engine (B1) priced as COTS UAV HF engine at ~35 hp; a DFM-redesigned engine could cut this materially but is out of scope here [TBR].
- Modular payload (warhead/seeker/ISR ball beyond D4) is mission-kitted and excluded except the bay interface (A4). The munition is the only per-sortie expended item (DDR-15).
- Recovery is baselined as Skyhook (I1–I4, I7, I8); chute+airbag (I5/I6) carried as a costed alternate; both included conservatively in the baseline rollup. Recovery method is NOT yet down-selected (R-03). VTOL recovery is a trade only (not baselined; DDR-17).
- Reuse-life-rated / scheduled-replacement (not per-sortie) items identified for the cost-per-sortie model: A11 wear shoe, B8 isolators, C1/C6 batteries, F1/F2 ablative coat & sacrificial strips, F6 divert cartridge + F8 squib (only if fired), I4 snubber, H9 service consumables. These feed
18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.mdand16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.md. - Ground recovery/launch equipment (§8.5) is fleet-amortized capital, excluded from flyaway and from the structural PN count.
- Scrap/yield/freight at ~12% is a placeholder [TBR by manufacturing].
- Structural PN count ≈112 is an estimate from this indicative BOM; final count set by detailed design [TBR].
- Managed, NOT-YET-VERIFIED risks (do not claim solved): R-03 Skyhook recovery scaled ~5× beyond heritage / not down-selected; R-04 ≥50-sortie engine/structural life; K5 combined-adverse range (~1,150 km worst case vs. 1,500 km floor — RTB reserve protected regardless). DDR-12 REQ-12b/c closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by analysis (analysis-pending), not test.
Budget contribution
- Mass: ~174.5 kg full-up at 175 kg MTOW (this BOM enumerates the whole reusable ship-set and contributes the full WILDFIRE MTOW rollup, Rev B.1 reconciled). Breakdown (empty-equipped ≈ 104.5 kg): Structure incl. recovery reinforcement (A) ~52 kg · Propulsion dry ~26 kg (engine ~17 kg + prop/mounts/fuel-system ~9 kg; dodge motor EXCLUDED — FIX F-2/F-3) · Electrical (C) ~7.2 kg · Compute+sensors incl. reused seeker / autonomy (D) ~3.4 kg · Comms (E) ~0.9 kg · Survivability incl. divert/"dodge" motor counted ONCE (F) ~9.3 kg · CPI ~3.2 kg · Recovery & launch interface incl. Skyhook hook+snubber / chute+airbags (I) ~6.5 kg · (Actuation G + harness/fasteners H folded into structure/CPI allocations). + Fuel ~45 kg (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency) + Modular payload up to 25 kg ⇒ ~174.5 kg, closing within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin. [Reconciled by integration; closure by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), not test.]
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 / 0 W — reported as 0/0 to avoid double-counting. The BOM does not itself consume power; it enumerates loads owned by other docs. Informational only (not additive): indicative ship electrical draw rose with the Thor-class module to cruise ~600 W / peak ~1,400 W [TBR, owned by
11_propulsion_power.mdand12_autonomy_compute_software.md]. - Unit cost (volume): ≈ $59,300 loaded recurring material cost / ship-set (parts only). Breakdown: Structure $13.2k · Propulsion+fuel (~35 hp) $19.4k · Electrical $2.65k · Compute+sensors (Thor-class) $5.9k · Comms $1.3k · Survivability (incl. divert once) $3.4k · Actuation $2.05k · Harness/fasteners/consumables $1.9k · Recovery & launch interface $3.15k · Scrap/freight allowance $6.35k. This is the material contribution to the ~$130k tracking flyaway (≤$150k target); labor + integration + acceptance test + recovery-system qual + margin (~$70.7k headroom) are added in
16_manufacturing_dfm_cost.md. The engine uprate adds a little but the flyaway still closes under the cap. Ground recovery/launch equipment (§8.5, $60k–$120k Skyhook rig etc.) is fleet-amortized capital, NOT in this per-airframe number. - Reuse impact: This BOM is the physical enabler of reusability (DDR-15) — it adds the Skyhook capture hook + snubber (I3/I4) and A12 spar hard-point reinforcement (~$2.1k + ~3.0 kg) so the airframe is caught and recovered undamaged, with chute+airbag (I5/I6) as an independent fallback (recovery method not yet down-selected — R-03); it adds a quick-connect refuel coupling (B13) and service-access design (A7/H9) for ≤30-min refuel+rearm turnaround, and health-logging (C10/D11) for reuse qualification. Because the airframe + Thor-class compute + EO/IR seeker all come home, their per-sortie amortized cost over a ≥50-sortie reuse life [TBR] drops the airframe contribution to ≈ $59.3k material ÷ 50 ≈ ~$1.2k/sortie material (≈ $130k flyaway ÷ 50 ≈ ~$2.6k/sortie airframe-amortized; budget target ~$3.1k/sortie + fuel + munition), leaving fuel + (optional) munition as the dominant per-sortie expense — exactly Palmer's "I'm only using up whatever fuel or kinetics I use" [20:42]. Per-sortie material expendables are limited to fuel, the optional munition, one RATO cartridge (if used), and scheduled-replacement consumables (ablative touch-up, divert cartridge only if fired) — see §11 /
18_recovery_reuse_lifecycle.md. R-04: ≥50-sortie engine/structural life is MANAGED, NOT-YET-VERIFIED. - Assumptions / [TBR]: Volume costs are estimates not quotes (±30%) [TBR]; engine (B1, ~35 hp) and divert energetics (F6/F8) remain the two real single-source risks [TBR mitigation maturity]; Skyhook hard-point/snubber fatigue life ≥50 captures, scaled ~5× beyond heritage, recovery method not down-selected [TBR — R-03]; ≥50-sortie engine/structural reuse life [TBR — R-04]; reuse life 50 [TBR] and turnaround ≤30 min [TBR] are design targets to be validated in the reuse-cycle shoot-off (DDR-19); combined-adverse range ~1,150 km worst case vs. 1,500 km floor [TBR — K5], RTB reserve protected regardless; turbine dash + SATCOM carried at qty 0/option in baseline; scrap/yield 12% placeholder [TBR]; structural PN count ≈112 [TBR by detailed design]; ground recovery rig cost (GR1, 175 kg-class) $60k–$120k [TBR]. DDR-12 REQ-12b/c closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending), NOT test-verified.
Risk Register & Open Questions
RISKDocument owner: Chief Engineer / Design-Review Board (adversarial review)
Parent baseline: 00_seed_design_brief.md §3 (LOCKED Rev B.1 point design — 175 kg MTOW)
Primary DDRs: DDR-17 (requirements discipline / "don't build the Batmobile"), with traceability to all 20 DDRs through the individual risk rows.
Status: Concept design / engineering study. This register consolidates (a) every author-declared [TBR]/[TBD]/open item across docs 02, 04, 10–18, 20, 30, (b) the Integration 03_system_specification.md reconciliation findings (F-1…F-11, K5), and (c) the design-review board's independent adversarial findings (RB / R-22…R-34). No validated test data exists; all subsystem numbers are targets/estimates. No KPP is flight-Verified.
Scoring: Likelihood (L) and Impact (I) each on 1–5 (5 = near-certain / program-ending). Score = L×I. Owner = accountable doc/function. Status ∈ {RESOLVED, CLOSES-PENDING-ANALYSIS, MANAGED/OPEN, OPEN, DEFERRED}.
Rev B.1 disposition headline (one line)
The +24.5 kg empty-mass overrun (R-01 / F-1) is RESOLVED by a signed MTOW growth from 150 → 175 kg (385 lb) taken on the Rev B integration's own recommendation: the reconciled full-up strike config (~174.5 kg) now closes within the 175 kg MTOW with positive margin, carrying the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor + RTB reserve. The central DDR-12 requirement (REQ-12b/c) consequently moves from NOT-satisfied to CLOSES-PENDING-ANALYSIS ("closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis — analysis-pending"). The recovery/reuse physics did not change: R-03 (Skyhook ~5× heritage), R-04 (≥50-sortie life vs engine-hour math), and K5/R-05 (combined-adverse range) remain MANAGED / OPEN, not-yet-verified. Mass growth resolved the bookkeeping crisis; it did not retire the physics risks. This is a concept study, not a frozen design.
0. What changed at Rev B.1 (change-control summary)
| Item | Rev B status | Rev B.1 status | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTOW | 150 kg (cap) | 175 kg (385 lb), SIGNED GROWTH | Integration recommendation; closes mass budget |
| R-01 mass overrun (F-1) | OPEN, score 25, #1 | RESOLVED — closes with positive margin | Signed MTOW growth |
| R-02 / DDR-12 REQ-12b/c | OPEN, "does not close" | CLOSES-PENDING-ANALYSIS | Margin restored at 175 kg |
| Payload | starved to ~0 kg at cap | Full 25 kg restored | MTOW re-baseline |
| Terminal divert motor | double-flagged (F-2/F-3) | Charged ONCE to survivability (~4.1 kg); 3.2 kg phantom REMOVED from propulsion dry | F-2/F-3 fix |
| Propulsion power | ~22–28 hp (150 kg) | ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline) for 175 kg | Heavier MTOW |
| Doc 30 BOM mass split (F-4) | structure ~38–40 / engine ~7 | structure 52 kg / engine ~17 kg dry to match owner docs | F-4 fix |
| R-19 divert double-count (F-2/F-3) | OPEN, score 4 | RESOLVED by single-owner charge to survivability | F-2/F-3 fix |
| R-06 / R-07 BOM & "80 kg empty" propagation | OPEN | Largely RESOLVED by mass re-baseline + change-control authority (residual propagation tracked) | F-4 fix + 104.5 kg canonical |
| Flyaway cost | ≤ $150k | ~$130k flyaway (engine uprate adds a little; still ≤ $150k) | Engine uprate |
| Cost-per-sortie | ~$3,130 | ~$3.1k airframe-amortized over ≥50 sorties + fuel + munition | Unchanged basis (R-04 caveat stands) |
| Reuse life | 50 [TBR] | 50 [TBR] (unchanged — still unverified) | R-04 open |
| R-03 / R-04 / K5(R-05) | OPEN | MANAGED / OPEN — unchanged physics | Mass growth does not touch them |
Canonical reconciled mass statement (Rev B.1 — authoritative):
| Group | Mass (kg) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Structure | 52.0 | Owner = doc 10 (reuse-robust steel/composite). Matches BOM at Rev B.1 (F-4 fix). |
| Propulsion (dry, itemized) | 26.0 | Includes engine ~17 kg dry; divert/dodge motor EXCLUDED (F-3 fix). |
| Electrical | 7.2 | Generator + buffer + distribution. |
| Autonomy / compute | 3.4 | Thor-class module + sensors electronics share. |
| Survivability | 9.3 | Anti-laser skin + Faraday + terminal divert motor counted ONCE here (~4.1 kg) (F-2 fix). |
| Comms | 0.9 | SDR mesh; radios-off does not change flight safety. |
| CPI (carriage/payload interface) | 3.2 | Hardpoints, release/eject interface. |
| Recovery | 6.5 | Skyhook wingtip fitting + chute/airbag soft goods. |
| Empty-equipped | ~104.5 | vs original ~80 kg target (the source of F-1). |
| Fuel | 45.0 | Incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve (protected hold-back) + ~2 kg contingency. |
| Payload | up to 25.0 | Restored by MTOW re-baseline (the only expended item is the munition). |
| Full-up strike | ~174.5 | CLOSES within 175 kg MTOW with positive margin. |
1. Top Program Risks (ranked by Rev B.1 priority)
| ID | Risk | L | I | Score | Mitigation | Owner | Status (Rev B.1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R-03 | Skyhook capture does not scale. Heritage ScanEagle/Skyhook recovers ~22 kg; WILDFIRE is ~104.5 kg empty-equipped at capture (≈5× mass, ≈25× kinetic energy). Authors call this "the dominant engineering risk." No analysis bridges the 5× scale; boom/cable/arrestor sizing and off-center one-tip capture torque are first-order placeholders. Recovery method is NOT down-selected. If Skyhook fails, the reuse KPP (DDR-15) leans entirely on the parachute lifeboat (R-09). | 4 | 5 | 20 | Captive rig + ≥20 live ~150 kg-class captures (K12b) before design freeze; carry parachute+airbag as the credible primary, not "alt," until Skyhook is proven at scale. Treat Skyhook as unproven, not baseline, in cost/turnaround claims. | 18 / 10 / 17 | MANAGED / OPEN — physics unchanged by MTOW growth; recovery method not down-selected. |
| R-04 | Reuse life ≥50 sorties unproven AND engine-hour math is self-contradictory. Doc 11 states a representative sortie is 6–10 engine-h and "≥250 h TBO = ~25–40 sorties between overhaul on engine-hours alone," then redefines the design population to ≤5 h short sorties to reach ≥50 — circular. The ~$3.1k cost-per-sortie (airframe amortized over ≥50) collapses if true reuse life is 25–40. The heavier 175 kg MTOW + uprated ~35 hp engine arguably increases structural/engine duty, not decreases it. | 4 | 4 | 16 | Resolve which limiter (structure fatigue vs engine TBO) binds (K12d open). Publish cost-per-sortie sensitivity at the honest engine-limited life (25–40), not only the structural 50. Bench fatigue ≥100 blocks at scatter ≥2; engine endurance dyno at the uprated power. | 11 / 17 / 18 | MANAGED / OPEN — reuse life 50 [TBR]; not verified. |
| R-02 | DDR-12 core requirement (REQ-12b/c): "survive laser+HPM+kinetic simultaneously while holding range+payload+RTB within MTOW." At Rev B (150 kg) this was OPEN and did not close. At Rev B.1 (175 kg) it CLOSES with positive margin — full 25 kg payload + ~9.3 kg survivability (incl. divert) + ~6.5 kg recovery + 45 kg fuel (incl. RTB reserve) all fit. Closure is by mass bookkeeping, NOT by a verified survivability/range trade. | 3 | 5 | 15 | State as "closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis — analysis-pending." Run the survivability-vs-range/payload-vs-reuse trade and the time-correlated tri-threat test (K9) to convert closure → verification. | 03 / 13 / 18 | CLOSES-PENDING-ANALYSIS — not Verified. |
| R-05 / K5 | Range combined-adverse fails the floor. Nominal ~1,574 km radius, but a 10% adverse swing in (L/D × η_prop × BSFC) drops it to ~1,150 km — below the 1,500 km floor. Rests on three unmeasured [TBR] assumptions (L/D 14, η_p 0.75, BSFC 380). The 175 kg MTOW + ~35 hp uprate change the cruise point; the worst-case ~1,150 km figure must be re-derived at the heavier weight. RTB reserve (~4 kg) is a protected hold-back regardless — the asset still returns, so this is a mission-radius risk, not a reuse risk. | 4 | 3 | 12 | Engine dyno BSFC + wind-tunnel/CFD L/D + prop whirl test are the three measurements that retire it. Re-derive nominal & combined-adverse radius at 175 kg. Needs Integration sign-off either way. | 11 / 03 | MANAGED / OPEN — RTB reserve protected; mission-radius floor unverified. |
| R-34 | Verification optimism / circularity. Every gating KPP (K1/K5/K8/K9/K10/K12/K-M/K-P) is "[TBR by shoot-off]"; the design declares itself "on target" against thresholds it also sets. K-M (mass) flips from self-declared FAIL → PASS at 175 kg, but on analysis, not on a weighed article. No KPP is flight-Verified. | 4 | 3 | 12 | Treat all "meets / on-target / closes" as unverified targets/analysis. Gate design freeze on the R-03/R-04/R-02/R-05 closures and a weighed prototype, not on paper compliance. | 17 / 03 / ALL | MANAGED / OPEN. |
| R-08 | Divert miss-distance is below the KPP threshold (K8). Target ≥8 m miss in ≤0.5 s; achieved ~5.3 m at the reuse-safe 12 g. 8 m only reached at 18 g, a [TBR] reserve the reuse-safe structure may not clear. Either the airframe under-performs the kinetic KPP or it exceeds its reuse-safe g-limit (no longer reusable). The heavier 175 kg airframe makes a given lateral Δv harder, not easier. | 3 | 4 | 12 | Reconcile K8 (8 m) with the reuse-safe load (12 g → 5.3 m) at 175 kg. Either lower the threshold with red-team justification of real interceptor lethal radii, or qualify the 18 g case for reuse. Divert sizing + threat-fuze validation (TBR-4). | 13 / 11 / 10 / 17 | OPEN. |
| R-09 | WILDFIRE parachute/airbag recovery never sized for ~104.5 kg. The declared engine-out "lifeboat" that protects reuse has no canopy area, descent rate, or footprint computed at the reconciled empty mass (BACKFIRE sized 18.2 m²/4.8 m for 55 kg; WILDFIRE needs ~2× area). If the lifeboat is not credible, engine-out = lost airframe, breaking DDR-15. Heavier at 175 kg → larger canopy/stroke than the 3.5 kg soft-goods budget assumes. | 3 | 4 | 12 | Size the ~104.5 kg canopy + airbag stroke + impact-g; verify seeker/compute survive the alt-mode impact (not just Skyhook). Drop test. Check the 3.5 kg chute/airbag budget (doc 18) against the real canopy at the recovered mass. | 18 / 10 | OPEN. |
| R-17 | Recovery node is a targetable single point (TBR-18-7). A fixed Skyhook boom/launch site that re-services a frequently-reflown fleet is a high-value, predictable target; loss of the recovery node grounds the reusable fleet. Directly tensions with the "few booms service many airframes" reuse economics. | 3 | 3 | 9 | Mobility/dispersion/multiple alternates + parachute fallback; quantify recovery-node survivability and the minimum number of dispersed nodes per fleet. | 18 | OPEN. |
| R-10 | Skyhook engagement speed inconsistent between docs. Doc 18 plans capture at ~28 m/s (54 kt, near idle/feathered); doc 10 sizes the load at loiter ~36 m/s (70 kt) — KE ≈ 97 kJ vs ~41 kJ, a 2.4× energy disagreement on the driving recovery load case. At 175 kg empty-equipped the absolute KE is higher than the 150 kg-era figures both docs used. | 3 | 3 | 9 | Lock a single engagement-speed/mass for the capture-load case across docs 10/18 (now at ~104.5 kg) before sizing the wingtip fitting and arrestor. Flight-control authority to decelerate to 28 m/s while remaining controllable for capture is itself unproven. | 10 / 18 / 12 | OPEN. |
| R-23 | Cyber / anti-tamper entirely deferred (IN-7 punts to this register). A reusable airframe captured/recovered by the adversary, or a tampered HUMS log driving a false go/no-go, is unaddressed. Reuse increases this exposure vs a one-way airframe — the asset is meant to come back, so it can also be captured. | 3 | 3 | 9 | Define cyber/anti-tamper scope, secure-boot, tamper-evident HUMS, and captured-airframe key-zeroization before fielding. | 12 / 40 | OPEN. |
| R-30 | Heavy-fuel engine + divert/RATO energetics are the only non-commodity, rate-binding, possibly-export-restricted items — they are NOT automotive/ag primitives despite the DFM thesis (DDR-06/07), and are flagged as the genuine supply chokepoints (doc 30). The engine uprate to ~35 hp at Rev B.1 tightens this: a higher-output HF engine is a thinner-supply, higher-cost item, and is the #1 unit-cost (~$26k) and rate driver. The "build it in a car factory in 1 week" claim has two holes: the engine and the energetics. | 3 | 3 | 9 | Allied dual-source the HF engine and energetics; isolate as bolt-on modules (already the plan); cost/rate-qual the uprated engine early. | 30 / 16 | OPEN — slightly worsened by the uprate. |
| R-33 | Electrical-budget contradiction. Doc 30 BOM cites "ship draw cruise ~600 W / peak ~1400 W" while docs 03/11 reconcile to 242 W / 621 W canonical — a 2.3–2.5× disagreement that directly affects generator sizing and the 1.0–1.2 kW margin. | 3 | 3 | 9 | Single electrical-budget authority (doc 11/03); correct doc 30. If 600/1400 is right, the generator margin (K-P) is negative, not 1.6–1.9×. | 11 / 03 / 30 | OPEN. |
| R-11 | HPM/EMP hardening non-degradation across repeated exposures is unproven (REQ-10d, TBR-3). A reused airframe may be HPM-exposed on many of its ≥50 sorties; cumulative gasket/seal/TVS degradation is unaddressed beyond "re-qualifiable at turnaround." 80 dB SE is a handbook estimate, not measured. | 3 | 3 | 9 | HPM chamber test to a defined ([TBD]) threat level incl. repeat-exposure cycling; verify the surviving failure mode is recoverable upset, not silicon damage; define turnaround re-qual of the Faraday-lid gasket. | 13 / 17 | OPEN. |
| R-25 | ≤30-min turnaround is a paper timeline with overlapping steps and a 13-min rearm pacing item; never demonstrated; assumes a charred-panel swap (R-22), divert reload, and BIT all fit. Stretch ≤15 min is aspirational. | 4 | 2 | 8 | Live turnaround time-study with stopwatch + timing officials (K12c); de-risk the rearm/skin-swap pacing items. | 18 / 16 | OPEN. |
| R-14 | Comms-denied lethal-release ROE (DDR-18 crux, TBR-CONOPS-4) lacks legal/operational sign-off. Human-on-the-loop is mandated, but the radios-off mission means the "loop" may be absent at release; the deterministic "retain-and-RTB" abort is the resolution but the comms-denied release policy itself is unsigned. | 2 | 4 | 8 | Legal/operational sign-off on comms-denied ROE before shoot-off; independent safety-monitor assurance level + formal methods on the ROE gate. Default-to-abort-and-recover is the safe posture and aligns with reuse. | 04 / 12 / 17 | OPEN. |
| R-22 | Anti-laser "≥10× / 100×" rests on α≈0.3 and stacked ablative multipliers with no burn test; the consumed-panel field-replacement scheme (REQ-09d) is Open — turnaround math assumes a 10-min panel swap never demonstrated. | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1.07 µm burn test at 10–50 kW; demonstrate panel swap inside turnaround. | 13 / 18 | OPEN. |
| R-12 | Compute "best-in-class Thor-class" may be Batmobile content (DDR-17). The vision-nav brain is proven at ~100 TOPS (Orin); a 1000–2000 TOPS module is 5–20× headroom. The "<1.3% of flyaway" defense is a cost argument, not a capability-need one — DDR-17 requires the latter. | 3 | 2 | 6 | Demand a compute-sizing analysis (perception→guidance latency at WILDFIRE resolution + safety partition + scene-match) that requires >100 TOPS. If 100–300 TOPS closes it, Thor-class is gold-plating. Thermal envelope + reuse-cycle life also [TBR]. | 12 | OPEN. |
| R-13 | Comms mesh (CTF pub/sub >50 ships, DTN store-forward) is new SW beyond AIGP single-ship heritage. The "proven brain" is single-ship MAVLink; swarm mesh + coordinated/staggered recovery are unproven new development. | 2 | 3 | 6 | Scope the mesh as new development (cost/schedule), not heritage. Correctly off the flight-safety critical path (radios-off CONOPS); impact bounded to swarm-coordination mission value. | 15 / 12 | OPEN. |
| R-20 | Export/ITAR posture of Thor-class compute + energetics unresolved (TBR-7, REQ-20c). DDR-20 allied co-production depends on exportability; Thor-class AD silicon + solid divert/RATO energetics are the chokepoints. | 2 | 3 | 6 | Early export-control assessment; identify allied second-sources/compliant substitutes before committing the allied-production thesis. | 30 / 16 | OPEN. |
| R-26 | Rail exit at 175 kg MTOW. Launch energy scales with MTOW: ~35 m/s rail exit at 175 kg ≈ 107 kJ (vs ~92 kJ at 150 kg) at ~7 g over a ~9 m stroke; rail/RATO reaction loads [TBR] and the launcher is a ~$150–400k GSE single point. Jerk-limited profile to protect gimbal/compute assumed, not shown. Updated for the heavier MTOW. | 3 | 3 | 9 | Launch-dynamics analysis + RATO Δv sizing at 175 kg; instrument launch shock on gimbal/compute. | 18 / 10 | OPEN — re-sized for 175 kg. |
| R-28 | Terminal body-roll/spin for laser dwell-spreading conflicts with (a) EO/IR seeker LOS and (b) the controlled recovery profile; "damped before capture" is asserted. Payload CG box must satisfy divert authority AND Skyhook capture geometry simultaneously. | 3 | 2 | 6 | Resolve roll-vs-seeker-LOS and roll-vs-recovery (doc 12); confirm CG box closes both divert and capture. | 12 / 13 / 18 | OPEN. |
| R-29 | Munition clean-separation + host break-away-to-RTB release geometry is [TBR]; a bad separation at terminal endangers the reusable host — the very asset reuse exists to protect. | 2 | 3 | 6 | Separation aero + release-basket geometry analysis; captive-carry then live separation test. | 14 / 10 | OPEN. |
| R-15 | Payload jammer power exceeds the bus (F-6). P3 jammer needs 450 W/18 A peak vs ~80 W payload reserve; jammer-fit ship peak ~990 W approaches the 1.0–1.2 kW generator ceiling. Jammer is duty-cycle/buffer-limited, not continuous. | 3 | 2 | 6 | Doc 11 confirm a Class-C 450 W bus or doc 14 bound jammer duty cycle. Does not affect baseline 242/621. | 11 / 14 | OPEN. |
| R-16 | EO/IR gimbal mass & cost ownership ambiguous (F-7/F-8). Nav EO/IR gimbal vs payload P2 ISR ball vs doc 16's $22k bucket — risk of double-count or gap in both mass and cost. | 3 | 2 | 6 | Define one boundary: nav EO/IR gimbal in flyaway (mass+cost) distinct from P2 payload ISR ball. Resolve at detailed design. | 12 / 14 / 16 / 03 | OPEN. |
| R-18 | Cost-per-sortie fuel figure inconsistent and optimistic. Doc 16/18 cost ~30 kg @ $1/kg = $40; doc 11 carries 45 kg @ $1–2/kg = ~$45–90. The ~$3.1k figure (a) excludes munition (the actual expended item), (b) assumes the unproven 50-sortie life (R-04), (c) excludes divert reload ($320–5,000 when used). | 3 | 2 | 6 | Use a single fuel basis; present cost-per-sortie as a band across honest reuse-life and consumable-usage assumptions, not a single point against the ≤~$3k target it already rounds over. | 16 / 18 / 11 | OPEN. |
| R-21 | Reuse-robust steel mass penalty quantification is itself [TBR] (TBR-10.9). The ~20 kg steel-vs-Al/CFRP penalty fed the original R-01 overrun. With MTOW now 175 kg there is positive margin, so a worse-than-20 kg penalty no longer threatens closure as acutely — but it still erodes payload/range and must be confirmed. | 2 | 2 | 4 | Comparative sizing study to confirm the ~20 kg penalty; it is load-bearing for the DFM thesis and the (now-positive) mass margin. | 10 | OPEN — de-escalated by margin. |
| R-27 | Reusable-decoy signature-match fidelity vs a three-layer defender is unquantified; a recovered, reused decoy must spoof laser/HPM/kinetic cueing well enough to draw fire yet survive to return. | 2 | 2 | 4 | Signature-match fidelity analysis + red-team vs three-layer defender. | 04 / 13 | OPEN. |
| R-24 | "≥1,000/day" reinterpreted (IN-3) as aggregate distributed/allied surge, not demonstrated; the "10 lines × 100/day" closure and the reuse "50× effective capacity" credit are unvalidated assumptions stacked on each other. | 2 | 2 | 4 | Takt/line-balance analysis; keep the reuse multiplier separate from the build-rate claim in scoring. | 16 | OPEN. |
2. RESOLVED / Re-classified at Rev B.1 (carried for traceability — not re-ranked above)
| ID | Original risk | Rev B disposition | Rev B.1 disposition |
|---|---|---|---|
| R-01 | MASS OVERRUN / payload starvation (F-1). Reconciled empty-equipped ≈104.5 kg vs ~80 kg target; empty+fuel ≈149.5 kg → ~0 kg payload at the 150 kg cap; full-up ≈174.5 kg (+16% over 150). | OPEN, score 25, #1 program risk. | RESOLVED. Per the integration's own recommendation, MTOW re-baselined 150 → 175 kg (385 lb), signed growth. Full-up ~174.5 kg now closes within 175 kg with positive margin, restoring the full 25 kg payload + terminal divert motor + RTB reserve. Propulsion uprated to ~32–38 hp. Resolution is by signed envelope growth + analysis, not by a weighed prototype (see R-34). |
| R-19 | Divert/dodge motor mass & impulse double-flagged (F-2/F-3). Doc 11 (3.2 kg) vs doc 13 (4.1 kg); owner ambiguous (propulsion vs survivability). | OPEN, score 4. | RESOLVED. Divert/dodge motor charged ONCE to survivability (~4.1 kg); the ~3.2 kg phantom REMOVED from propulsion dry (F-2 fix). Propulsion dry headline is now the explicit ~26 kg itemization with the dodge motor excluded (F-3 fix). Single-owner = Survivability (doc 13). |
| R-06 | Doc 30 BOM mass line-split contradicts owner docs (F-4) (structure ~38–40 / engine ~7 vs structure 52 / engine 17 dry). | OPEN, score 15. | RESOLVED. BOM re-baselined to owner-doc masses at Rev B.1: structure 52 kg, engine ~17 kg dry (F-4 fix). The obsolete "~80 kg empty / 40+7 split" is deleted. |
| R-07 | "Empty ~80 kg" persists in CONOPS / BOM / Mfg / Survivability after Integration reconciled it to 104.5 kg; downstream range/cost/%MTOW built on the obsolete figure. | OPEN, score 15. | LARGELY RESOLVED — residual propagation tracked. 104.5 kg empty-equipped is the single canonical figure (see §0 table) and 175 kg is the locked MTOW. Change-control authority = doc 03 / Integration. Residual: every doc's range, %MTOW, and cost-per-sortie must be re-derived at 175 kg / 104.5 kg empty before the next rev — until then those derived figures remain [TBR]. |
Honesty note on the "RESOLVED" rows: R-01/R-06/R-07/R-19 are resolved as configuration-control and bookkeeping matters — the masses now agree across docs and the budget closes on paper with margin. They are NOT resolved by test. The physics risks that the mass growth does not touch (R-03 Skyhook scaling, R-04 reuse life, R-05/K5 range floor, R-08 divert miss-distance, R-09 chute lifeboat) remain the gating items. Growing the airplane fixed the spreadsheet; it did not fly the airplane.
3. Author-Declared Open Items ([TBR]/[TBD]) — Consolidated Tracker
3.1 Requirements / RTM (doc 02)
| Ref | Item | Owner | Linked risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| TBR-1 | En-route vision-nav cross-track accuracy, degraded-vis drift, recovery-approach accuracy (REQ-02a/d/e) | 12/18 | R-03, R-09 |
| TBR-2 | Anti-laser parts-cost adder $X, dwell multiplier, consumed-skin field-replacement scheme (REQ-09a/d) | 13/18 | R-22 |
| TBR-3 | HPM/EMP shielding-effectiveness dB, exposure threat level, non-degradation across repeated exposures (REQ-10a/d) | 13/17 | R-11 |
| TBR-4 | Terminal divert displacement/onset/reaction time; divert-consumable vs aero-jink reuse trade (REQ-11a/b/c) | 11/13/12/18 | R-08 |
| TBR-5 | Closure of survivability-vs-range/payload-vs-reuse trade — now within 175 kg / 45 kg fuel / 25 kg payload (REQ-12b/c) | 03/18 | R-02 (CLOSES-PENDING-ANALYSIS) |
| TBR-6 | Canonical open track/data standard selection (REQ-14a) | 15 | R-13 |
| TBR-7 | Export/ITAR posture of critical components incl. Thor-class compute (REQ-20c/03d) | 30/16 | R-20 |
| TBR-8 | Cyber/anti-tamper scope split (assured-autonomy vs program security) (IN-7) | 40/12 | R-23 |
| TBR-9 | Single-line vs distributed split closing ≥1,000/day; effective-capacity reuse credit (REQ-08a/c/d) | 16/18 | R-24 |
| TBR-10 | Recovery method down-select (Skyhook vs parachute+airbag vs VTOL) + recovery-load envelope (REQ-15c) | 18/10 | R-03, R-09 |
| TBR-11 | Reuse-life ≥50 sorties confirmation by fatigue analysis + launch/recovery cycling at 175 kg / ~35 hp (REQ-15e) | 18/10/11 | R-04 |
| TBR-12 | Turnaround ≤30 min task analysis (refuel/rearm/skin-replace/divert-reload, team, GSE) (REQ-15d) | 18/16 | R-25 |
| TBR-13 | Onboard reuse health-management sensor set + next-sortie qualification criteria (REQ-15f) | 18/12 | R-04 |
| TBR-14 | RTB/recovery fuel-reserve fraction sizing within 45 kg — ~4 kg reserve is a protected hold-back (REQ-13e) | 11/18 | R-05 |
3.2 CONOPS (doc 04)
| Ref | Item | Linked risk |
|---|---|---|
| TBR-CONOPS-1 | Round-trip 1,500–2,500 km radius vs ~45 kg fuel + RTB reserve + terminal loiter — re-derive at 175 kg | R-05 |
| TBR-CONOPS-2 | Rail exit ~35 m/s at 175 kg MTOW + RATO Δv | R-26 |
| TBR-CONOPS-3 | Vision-nav drift bound outbound AND return over feature-poor/over-water | R-03 |
| TBR-CONOPS-4 | Comms-denied lethal-release ROE parameters, legal/operational sign-off before shoot-off | R-14 |
| TBR-CONOPS-5 | Reusable-decoy signature-match fidelity vs three-layer defender | R-27 |
| TBR-CONOPS-6 | Swarm mesh degradation incl. coordinated/staggered recovery | R-13 |
| TBR-CONOPS-7 | ≤30 min turnaround step durations, BIT coverage, ≥50-sortie cumulative-cycle limits | R-25 |
| TBR-CONOPS-8 | Recovery-mode selection per site; recovery-point survivability/single-node risk | R-17 |
3.3 Airframe (doc 10)
TBR-10.1 wing area/semispan/chord lock (re-size for 175 kg) · TBR-10.2 empty-structural-mass FE rollup vs 52 kg (conservative 59.5) → R-04/R-21 · TBR-10.3 <120 part-count · TBR-10.4 launch reaction loads at 175 kg → R-26 · TBR-10.5 Skyhook snatch load + capture-fitting for ≥50 captures at ~104.5 kg → R-03 · TBR-10.6 chute opening shock + airbag decel at ~104.5 kg → R-09 · TBR-10.7 divert-motor impulse/hardpoint (full-FS, fatigue) → R-08 · TBR-10.8 weld/rivet/capture-fitting fatigue allowables + full-scale fatigue article → R-04 · TBR-10.9 steel-vs-Al/CFRP mass penalty (~20 kg) → R-21 · TBR-10.10 structural health-monitoring spec · TBD-10.11 final steel grade/coating.
3.4 Propulsion (doc 11)
BSFC 380 g/kWh · (L/D) 14/16 · η_prop 0.75 → R-05 · combined-adverse ~1,150 km needs sign-off (re-derive at 175 kg) → R-05 · engine uprated to ~32–38 hp (~35 hp baseline) for 175 kg MTOW · engine TBO/reuse ≥250 h / ≥50 sorties → R-04 · RTB reserve ~4 kg (protected hold-back) → R-14 · dodge-motor lethal radius + terminal mass → R-08 · turbine dash PSFC/TSFC · generator 1.0–1.2 kW + 350 Wh buffer → R-15 · HF cold-start across ≥50 cycles · dodge motor REMOVED from propulsion dry (now survivability-owned, F-2/F-3) → R-19 RESOLVED.
3.5 Autonomy (doc 12)
Recovery-CEP + capture envelope + wave-off count N → R-03 · recovery health-monitor coverage/mass/power · Thor-class volume pricing → R-12 · Thor thermal envelope at ceiling/desert + reuse-cycle life/throttle → R-12 · en-route position-error CEP budget vs IMU grade → R-03 · perception→guidance latency ≥30 Hz w/ ≥50% headroom → R-12 · detection P_d/P_fa + geolocation CEP · safety-kernel assurance level + partitioning HW → R-14 · scene/map-match robustness + map update/storage · Faraday bay + optical bus + HPM transient recovery timing → R-11 · RF-silent vs link-up ROE split → R-14 · cyber/anti-tamper + captured-airframe key-zeroization → R-23.
3.6 Survivability (doc 13)
TBR-13.1 laser TTK multiplier + reuse criterion (char in replaceable panel) → R-22 · TBR-13.2 HPM ≥80 dB + recoverable-upset failure mode → R-11 · TBR-13.3 divert sizing + reuse-safe high-g (12 g vs 18 g, ~17.7 kN) at 175 kg → R-08 · TBR-13.4 terminal body-roll vs seeker LOS + recovery-profile compatibility → R-28 · TBR-13.5 net mass adder ~9.3 kg (incl. divert ~4.1 kg, single-charged) range impact → R-02 · TBR-13.6 EFI ignition EMP-soft path + mechanical limp-home · TBR-13.7 RAM-loaded leading-edge paint (budget-permitting) · TBR-13.8 per-sortie consumable cost vs ≤~$3k → R-18.
3.7 Payload (doc 14)
Bay 34 L + fwd CG closes 25 kg munition (margin restored at 175 kg) · +1 kg fuel ≈ +33 km · payload CG box vs divert AND Skyhook → R-28 · P3 jammer ERP/thermal at 450 W → R-15 · munition clean-separation + break-away-to-RTB geometry → R-29 · CPI fatigue ≥50 swap+flight cycles + FOB swap ≤5 min → R-25 · [TBD] P1/P1L munition fill/kit/cost + EW band set · open track/command schema fields → R-13 · human-on-loop release + deterministic abort validation → R-14.
3.8 Comms (doc 15)
Track standard selection → TBR-6 · LPI/LPD waveform + mesh band plan + power/range (~38 kB/s 16-ship first-order) → R-13 · antenna/Faraday RF-aperture + residual HPM coupling → R-11 · optional SATCOM SWaP-C · crypto/key-mgmt + ROE-signing PKI → R-14 · CTF pub/sub >50 ships + DTN store-forward (new SW beyond heritage) → R-13 · recovery-coordination link (RECOVERY_INTENT handshake) — vision-only EMCON-0 is the fallback; no flight-safety case depends on the link.
3.9 Manufacturing / Cost (doc 16)
Reuse life ≥50 underpinning cost-per-sortie → R-04 · lifetime maint reserve $25k/50 ($500/sortie) → R-18 · ≤30-min turnaround time-study → R-25 · recovery GSE capex → R-17 · all cost figures pending vendor quotes (±30%, doc 30) · uprated ~35 hp HF engine unit cost & rate (rate-binding; uprate adds a little to flyaway, still ≤$150k) → R-30 · touch-labor 12–16 h/unit · tooling capex $5.9–9.1M/line · 85% Wright curve & 1M-unit volume [Assumption] · 20 h/2-shift → 12-min takt [Assumption] · per-sortie fuel ~$40 (~30 kg) [Assumption — inconsistent w/ doc 11] → R-18 · ITAR/export partition → R-20 · solid-divert producibility (not auto/ag primitive) → R-30 · first-pass-yield 90% · turboprop-dash variant near/over $150k → dash-only.
3.10 Test & Evaluation (doc 17)
Reuse-life scatter factor + bench-block count + NDI interval + retirement-for-cause (K12a) → R-04 · recovery thresholds: Skyhook success rate, arrest-g, post-capture seeker/compute damage, chute-airbag impact-g (K12b) → R-03/R-09 · turnaround crew size + station balance ≤30 min (K12c) → R-25 · engine TBO h/sorties + which limiter binds + turboprop TBO at uprated power (K12d) → R-04 · threat-surrogate calibration into signed KPP thresholds + survive-and-return scoring · tri-threat (K9) single-article vs time-correlated → R-02 · full-range (K5) validation strategy w/ RTB reserve at 175 kg → R-05 · independent safety-monitor assurance level / formal methods for ROE + wave-off → R-14 · shoot-off scoring rubric reconciliation · [TBD] captive-carry host + HITL camera injection · rate-qual site + ≤1-wk line-train + engine-overhaul-on-auto/ag-line procedure → R-30 · test-only DAQ/harness mass/power on FTA only.
3.11 Recovery / Reuse (doc 18)
TBR-18-1 Skyhook scaled to ~104.5 kg (heritage ~22 kg) — dominant risk → R-03 · TBR-18-2 engagement speed ~28 m/s + arrest give-back ~5 m → ~8 g, peak g on seeker/compute (re-compute at 175 kg) → R-03/R-10 · TBR-18-3 rail exit ~35 m/s/stroke ~9 m → ~7 g + RATO Δv at 175 kg → R-26 · TBR-18-4 reuse-life ≥50 via bench fatigue ≥100 blocks at scatter ≥2 + FTA → R-04 · TBR-18-5 inspection intervals + retirement thresholds → R-04 · TBR-18-6 turnaround ≤30 min by 2–3 crew → R-25 · TBR-18-7 recovery-node survivability (not a single node) → R-17 · TBR-18-8 GSE costs ($150–500k boom/launcher) + per-sortie share → R-17 · TBR-18-9 vision-cued rendezvous in wind/glare/haze + decoy-recovery-point rejection → R-03.
3.12 BACKFIRE (doc 20)
TBR-BF-01 MTOW 55 kg + mass rollup → R-31 · TBR-BF-02 twin-turbojet thrust/lapse, M0.85 dash, ceiling 6 km → R-32 · TBR-BF-03 intercept envelope 15–20 km / flyout / Pk → R-32 · TBR-BF-04 chute/airbag recovery loads + hard-landing damage vs reuse → R-31 · TBR-BF-05 service life (sorties between depot/attrition) → R-04(BF) · TBR-BF-06 turnaround ≤30 min · TBR-BF-07 micro-turbojet unit cost + allied 2nd-source → R-30 · TBR-BF-08 prox-frag lethal radius vs miss-distance · TBD-BF-09 VTOL recovery kit (future) · TBD-BF-10 rocket-boost (Arch B) integration & booster cost.
3.13 BOM (doc 30)
Reuse life ≥50 [TBR] → R-04 · turnaround ≤30 min [TBR] → R-25 · Skyhook hard-point + cable snubber fatigue ≥50 captures → R-03 · volume parts ±30% [TBR by RFQ] · uprated HF engine cost + DFM path → R-30 · divert energetics allied dual-source → R-20 · ground Skyhook rig $60k–120k → R-17 · scrap/yield/freight ~12% placeholder · structural PN ~112 [TBR] · star tracker need over 1,500–2,500 km GPS-denied → R-03 · ship electrical draw 242/621 canonical (F-4 BOM mass split now corrected to structure 52 / engine 17 dry; electrical-draw contradiction with 600/1400 still open) → R-33.
4. BACKFIRE-specific Risk Rows (carried)
| ID | Finding | L | I | Score | Mitigation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R-31 | BACKFIRE 55 kg MTOW + 44 kg reusable mass rollup is first-order; chute/airbag recovery loads and hard-landing-damage-vs-reuse are [TBR]. "Engine-out returns the vehicle" assumes single-engine flyout + recovery is controllable — unproven. | 2 | 3 | 6 | Mass rollup (Integration); drop test; single-engine return demonstration. | OPEN |
| R-32 | BACKFIRE M0.85 sustained dash + 15–20 km intercept (T/W ≈ 0.50 at dash) + Pk all [TBR by 6-DoF sim]; envelope quoted inconsistently (15–20 km doc 20 vs 15–25 km doc 03/seed). | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6-DoF fly-out sim; reconcile the envelope figure across docs 00/03/20. | OPEN |
5. Integration Reconciliation Findings (from doc 03 §10) — Rev B.1 status
| ID | Finding | Severity | Rev B.1 status |
|---|---|---|---|
| F-1 | Mass overrun (empty 104.5 vs 80; full-up 174.5 vs 150) | CRITICAL | R-01 RESOLVED — signed MTOW growth to 175 kg; full-up ~174.5 kg closes with positive margin. |
| F-2 | Divert/dodge motor double-count (3.2 vs 4.1 kg) | High | R-19 RESOLVED — charged ONCE to survivability (~4.1 kg); 3.2 kg phantom removed from propulsion. |
| F-3 | Doc 11 headline dry-mass (24.7 vs itemized 29.2) | Medium | RESOLVED — propulsion dry headline = explicit ~26 kg itemization, dodge motor excluded. |
| F-4 | Doc 30 BOM mass split unsupported vs owner docs | High | R-06 RESOLVED — BOM re-baselined to structure 52 kg / engine ~17 kg dry. |
| F-5/F-11 | Mass-owner assignment / recovery split single-owner | Low/Med | Resolved (confirmed). |
| F-6 | Payload jammer power mismatch (450 W vs 80 W) | Medium | R-15 (open). |
| F-7 | Cost-WBS mismatch (top-down vs self-reports) | Medium | R-16/R-18 (reconcile at detailed design). Flyaway re-baselined ~$130k with engine uprate, still ≤$150k. |
| F-8 | EO/IR gimbal mass/cost ownership ambiguity | Medium | R-16 (open). |
| F-9 | Fuel accounting (counted once) | Resolved | Closed. |
| F-10 | Faraday-box vs structure boundary | Low | Verify at detailed design. |
| K5 | Range combined-adverse ~1,150 km < 1,500 km floor | Secondary | R-05 MANAGED/OPEN — RTB reserve protected; re-derive at 175 kg, sign-off needed. |
6. DDR Coverage Assessment (board view, Rev B.1)
All 20 DDRs are owned and traced (doc 02: 20/20, 86 REQs, 0 orphans). "Owned/allocated" ≠ "verified." Rev B.1 changes for the mass-gated DDRs:
| DDR | Gap | Rev B.1 status |
|---|---|---|
| DDR-12 | REQ-12b/c "survive-all-three + range + payload + RTB within MTOW." | CLOSES-PENDING-ANALYSIS at 175 kg with positive margin (was NOT-satisfied at 150 kg). Verification by detailed mass + performance analysis — analysis-pending (R-02). |
| DDR-13 | REQ-13e (RTB reserve fraction) Open; range combined-adverse fails floor (K5). | Payload "up to 25 kg" now ACHIEVABLE at 175 kg (R-01 resolved). RTB reserve ~4 kg protected. Combined-adverse range still MANAGED/OPEN (R-05). |
| DDR-15 | REQ-15e (≥50-sortie life) + REQ-15f (health-mgmt) Open; recovery method not down-selected; Skyhook unproven at scale. | Allocated, UNPROVEN — unchanged by mass growth. R-03/R-04 gate this. The reuse KPP is the program's #1 unretired physics risk at Rev B.1. |
| DDR-02 | REQ-02d/e (degraded-vis drift, recovery-approach accuracy) Open. | Allocated (R-03). |
| DDR-09 | REQ-09d (consumed-skin field replacement) Open. | Allocated (R-22). |
| DDR-10 | REQ-10d (non-degradation across exposures) Open; SE handbook estimate. | Allocated (R-11). |
| DDR-11 | REQ-11b (reaction-time budget) Open; miss-distance below K8 at reuse-safe g; harder at 175 kg. | Allocated (R-08). |
| DDR-18 | Comms-denied lethal-release ROE unsigned; cyber/anti-tamper deferred. | Allocated (R-14/R-23). |
| DDR-20 | REQ-20c (export posture) Open; engine + energetics not auto/ag primitives; uprated engine tightens R-30. | Allocated (R-20/R-30). |
DDR-01/03/04/05/06/07/08/14/16/17/19 satisfied by concrete design choices (subject to the verification-optimism caveat R-34). No DDR is flight-Verified.
7. Reusability Audit (board view) — Rev B.1
No one-way framing survives anywhere (verified by search across all 16 docs; the one-way airframe is the "total folly" Palmer rejects — see §8 quote). This remains the program's strongest, most internally consistent feature.
The MTOW re-baseline did NOT improve the recovery system's credibility: 1. Skyhook at ~5× heritage mass is still the dominant unretired risk (R-03) — and the docs say so themselves. Recovery method is still not down-selected. At 175 kg the absolute capture energy is higher than the 150 kg-era numbers in docs 10/18. 2. The parachute "lifeboat" is still unsized for ~104.5 kg (R-09); the engine-out reuse-preservation story still has a hole, now at a heavier airframe. 3. Reuse-life ≥50 is still contradicted by the engine-hour arithmetic (R-04); cost-per-sortie (~$3.1k) is still built on the unproven 50 and an optimistic fuel figure (R-18). The uprated ~35 hp engine arguably raises duty. 4. Turnaround ≤30 min is still a paper timeline (R-25) assuming undemonstrated panel-swap (R-22) and rearm steps. 5. The recovery node vs few-booms-many-airframes economics still conflict with dispersion/survivability (R-17).
Conclusion: reuse is genuinely designed in (load paths, HUMS, fatigue-friendly steel, RTB reserve, modular consumables) and the framing is clean — but reuse is asserted, not yet credible. The four pillars (recover, life ≥50, turnaround ≤30, cost ≤~$3k) each still rest on an unretired [TBR]. Rev B.1 resolved the mass crisis; it left every recovery/reuse physics risk exactly where it was.
8. Anchor verbatim (Palmer Luckey) for the reuse thesis these risks protect
[00:20:25] "…and then they need to come back so they can be refueled, rearmed, and reused. Now I'm not throwing away my seeker. I'm not throwing away my airframe."
[00:20:44] "So reusable kinetics, it's absolutely critical. Nobody is taking it seriously enough…"
These two lines (DDR-15) are precisely why R-03 (Skyhook scaling), R-04 (reuse life), R-09 (chute lifeboat), R-17 (recovery node), and R-25 (turnaround) are the gating risks: if the airframe does not credibly come home and re-fly ≥50 times within budget, the program reverts to the "total folly" one-way model Palmer rejects. Mass growth did not address any of these.
9. Author-[TBR] Tracker — top-level rollup (count by owner doc)
| Owner doc | Open [TBR]/[TBD] items | Gating linked risk(s) |
|---|---|---|
| 02 RTM | 14 (TBR-1…14) | R-02(now closes-pending), R-03, R-04, R-05 |
| 04 CONOPS | 8 (TBR-CONOPS-1…8) | R-03, R-05, R-14, R-17, R-26 |
| 10 Airframe | 11 (TBR-10.1…11) | R-03, R-04, R-08, R-09, R-21, R-26 |
| 11 Propulsion | ~12 | R-04, R-05, R-08, R-15 (R-19 RESOLVED) |
| 12 Autonomy | ~13 | R-03, R-11, R-12, R-14, R-23 |
| 13 Survivability | 8 (TBR-13.1…8) | R-02, R-08, R-11, R-22, R-28 |
| 14 Payload | ~9 | R-13, R-14, R-15, R-25, R-28, R-29 |
| 15 Comms | ~7 | R-11, R-13, R-14 |
| 16 Mfg/Cost | ~16 | R-04, R-18, R-20, R-25, R-30 |
| 17 T&E | ~14 | R-02, R-03, R-04, R-05, R-09, R-14, R-30, R-34 |
| 18 Recovery/Reuse | 9 (TBR-18-1…9) | R-03, R-04, R-09, R-10, R-17, R-25, R-26 |
| 20 BACKFIRE | 10 (TBR-BF-01…10) | R-31, R-32, R-30, R-04(BF) |
| 30 BOM | ~11 | R-03, R-04, R-17, R-20, R-25, R-30, R-33 (F-4 RESOLVED) |
No item in this tracker is closed by test data. All "closes" / "resolved" entries are analysis- or configuration-control-based and remain subject to R-34 (verification optimism).
10. Change Control
This register is maintained against 00_seed_design_brief.md Rev B.1 (175 kg MTOW). New risks cite an owner doc and L/I score.
- RESOLVED at Rev B.1 (bookkeeping/config-control, not test): R-01 (mass, via signed MTOW growth), R-06 (BOM split), R-07 (largely; residual propagation [TBR]), R-19 (divert single-charge).
- CLOSES-PENDING-ANALYSIS: R-02 / DDR-12 REQ-12b/c — closes at 175 kg MTOW; verification by detailed mass + performance analysis (analysis-pending).
- The dominant action items now gating design freeze are the recovery/reuse physics risks: R-03 (Skyhook ~5× scaling — recovery method not down-selected), R-04 (≥50-sortie engine/structural life vs engine-hour math), R-05/K5 (combined-adverse range floor), with R-08/R-09 (divert miss-distance, chute lifeboat) close behind. None may be left as "[TBR meets target]"; each requires a dispositioned analysis or test result.
- Residual from R-07: until every doc's range, %MTOW, and cost-per-sortie are re-derived at 175 kg / ~104.5 kg empty / ~35 hp, those derived downstream figures remain [TBR].
- Standing honesty caveat (R-34): no KPP is flight-Verified. Mass closure at 175 kg is an analysis result, not a weighed-prototype result. This is a concept study, not a frozen design.
Budget contribution
- Mass: This document adds 0 kg to the airframe (it is the consolidated risk register, not a subsystem). It is the authority that records the Rev B.1 canonical mass state: empty-equipped ~104.5 kg, fuel 45 kg (incl. ~4 kg RTB reserve + ~2 kg contingency), payload up to 25 kg, full-up strike ~174.5 kg — closing within the 175 kg (385 lb) MTOW with positive margin. Divert/dodge motor charged ONCE to survivability (~4.1 kg); propulsion dry = ~26 kg itemized (dodge motor excluded); structure 52 kg; engine ~17 kg dry.
- Power (cruise / peak): 0 W added. Records the canonical ship electrical budget as 242 W cruise / 621 W peak (doc 03/11), and flags the unresolved doc-30 contradiction (600 W / 1,400 W → R-33) that, if correct, would make the generator margin negative.
- Unit cost (volume): $0 added. Records the Rev B.1 cost state: flyaway ~$130k (engine uprate adds a little; still ≤ $150k target); cost-per-sortie ~$3.1k (airframe amortized over ≥50 sorties) + fuel + munition — explicitly caveated by R-04 (reuse life 50 [TBR]) and R-18 (fuel/consumable basis).
- Reuse impact: This register is the program's reuse-credibility ledger. Reuse life = 50 [TBR] (UNVERIFIED). The four reuse pillars (recover, life ≥50, turnaround ≤30 min, cost ≤~$3k) each rest on an unretired risk: R-03 (Skyhook ~5× heritage, method not down-selected), R-04 (life vs engine-hour math), R-25 (paper turnaround), R-09/R-17 (lifeboat/recovery-node). Mass growth to 175 kg did not improve any reuse-physics risk; if anything the heavier airframe + uprated engine raise capture energy (R-10) and engine/structural duty (R-04).
- Assumptions / [TBR]: (1) MTOW growth to 175 kg is a signed analysis disposition, not a weighed-prototype result (R-34). (2) DDR-12 "closes at 175 kg" is analysis-pending, not Verified (R-02). (3) Recovery method NOT down-selected; Skyhook unproven at ~5× heritage (R-03). (4) Reuse life 50 [TBR], contradicted by engine-hour math (R-04). (5) Combined-adverse range ~1,150 km < 1,500 km floor; RTB reserve protected regardless (R-05/K5). (6) All KPPs "[TBR by shoot-off]" — none flight-Verified (R-34). (7) Downstream range/%MTOW/cost-per-sortie must be re-derived at 175 kg before trust (residual R-07). No validated test data is asserted anywhere in this register.